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CzechPunter

June 6 - June 12

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Denis Kudla (-1.5 sets) to beat Dusan Lajovic for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365

Saw Kudla playing against Yen-Hsun Lu in Manchester and the guy has a great game for grass and if his first serve is working Dusan wont have a chance here. A small problem would be that Kudla may have a low percentage of wins on second serve so if he misses the first serve his opponents get a good chance to win the point like against Yen-Hsun Lu. When Kudla started to miss his first serve he was in trouble. But hopefully that wont happen against Dusan who is not even near as good as Yen-Hsun on grass.

Marcos Baghdatis (-1.5 sets) to beat Jan-Lennard Struff for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365

One of the best grassplayers outthere in his first match on the surface against an inferior opponent in Jan-Lennard Struff who just lost the final in Fürth on clay in straight sets. Seeing how he lost that final in straight sets does'nt inspire confidence to see him taking a set in this match since he'll have to quickly adapt to grass which I suspect he will have problems doing. Facing Baghdatis in your first match in a grass tournament is not ideal if you lack practice on the surface.

Alison Riske (-1.5 sets) to beat Mona Barthel for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with Bet365

Alison just won the ITF tournament in Eastbourne on grass and comes to Nottingham fully prepared. That's nothing you can say Mona has even if she's had some time to train on grass after she went out early in RG at the hands of Irina Falconi. Head to head reads 1-0 Alison after an easy straight sets win in the US open 2013. With these circumstances I have to take Alison to win in two.

 

Got to try these three since I think they should have a reasonable chance of all coming in.

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Back Philipp Kohlschreiber to win ATP Stuttgart 2016 for a 2/10 stake at 13.00 with Bet365

Nothing for me on Monday, but I will have a small punt on Kohli outright at odds this big, he's always in the mix in the German tournaments, could even beat Federer if the Swiss number one isn't completely fit.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/sS3XgO

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Back Karolina Pliskova to win WTA Nottingham 2016 for a 4/10 stake at 5.00 with Skybet

Back Zarina Diyas to beat Yanina Wickmayer for a 7/10 stake at 2.10 with Skybet

Back Laura Robson to beat Ana Konjuh for a 7/10 stake at 3.50 with Skybet

Nottingham should be interesting and I think Pliskova is the most likely to win it based on the draw. In the first round, I'll be taking two underdogs, Diyas and Wickmayer. Diyas is the better grass court player of the two imo, so that's simple, but I guess the Robson pick deserves further explanation, as Konjuh is the defending champion here and Robson is in a dreadful form at the moment. However, there are also some factors speaking in Robson. Firstly, the title defense can go both ways, as there will be some pressure and that can be a hassle for Konjuh. Secondly, Robson has already played a reasonable match on grass in this season, while Konjuh hasn't. She actually travelled to play a smaller clay court event after the French Open - she did win some matches, but she had to retire from her most recent one through an injury, so that also speaks against her. Worth opposing at the odds imo.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/bknqa8

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I may be back with outrights later, but for now this is what I have for the matches being played tomorrow.

Paul-Henri Mathieu to beat Rajeev Ram @ 2.19 Marathonbet (1 pt)

This looks like it could go either way to me, so odds against on Mathieu is where my money's going. Despite the French veteran being in the autumn of his career his ranking has improved in recent times, and he has an all-court game which means the transition to grass shouldn't be as difficult for him as it is for some other players. Ram has some pedigree on grass and has won titles on the surface in the United States, although it's fair to say that grass court conditions there are different to those found in Europe, but even so I don't think he will hold any fears for Mathieu.

Ernesto Escobedo to beat Aljaz Bedene @ 3.80 Marathonbet (1 pt)

I've looked at this a few times now and I think it could be worth backing Escobedo. The young American has had a couple of handy wins in qualifying and Bedene is coming here after an emotionally draining run at the French Open. He's had plenty of time to rest, but grass isn't his favourite surface and a slow start could give Escobedo a platform to get what would be a surprise win.

Jordi Samper-Montana to beat Ze Zhang @ 1.66 Bet365 (1 pt)

I'd have Samper-Montana shorter than this, as the Spaniard is a good clay-courter at Challenger level whereas Zhang has hardly played on the surface recently. Samper-Montana underwhelmed in the French Open after coming through qualifying, and this is an ideal opportunity to get back on track against a player whose last match was on a hard court in Bangkok.

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Ashleigh Barty (-1.5 sets) to beat Tamira Paszek for a 7/10 stake at 2.25 with Paddypower

Ashleigh just beat Tamira in straight sets last week in Eastbourne and now she's still playing better tennis then Tamira. Yesterday Tamira was struggling to beat Gabriela Dabrowski, she had some real troubles to win that match although it was never any danger but she did'nt play very well. Ashleigh herself had no troubles winning against Paula Cristina Goncalves although she faced 2 breakpoints when she was serving for the match. Still her first serve percentage was never lower then 70% and that's a great statistic compared to Tamira who was down on 40% in the first set playing completely awful. I think history may repeat itself today with Ashleigh again winning in straight sets.

Edit: Acctually Tamira only held serve once during the third set against Gabriela who was ranked 468 yesterday and now 528. Not good, Tamira will have to serve better today if she's supposed to have any chance of taking a set off Ashleigh.

Edited by four-leaf

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Ashleigh Barty is quite a good player even if only ranked 623 right now but most of you who know about her should be aware of her doubles titles and finals when she was just 17-18 years old. She just decided to quit playing tennis for awhile and playing professional cricket instead. Then last year she changed her mind and thought "maybe I should be playing tennis after all?". Not to late for changing her mind since she's still only 20 now. Her comeback is working well and I bet she will win her first match in Nottingham too since she will face Peng Shuai, Monica Puig, Kurumi Nara or Donna Vekic. All four at beatable players for such a good grassplayer like Ashleigh. Maybe Donna would be the most dangerous one for Ashleigh to face since she's ready for the grass after playing three matches in Eastbourne losing to Tara Moore in the quarters who is playing quite good grasstennis right now. Anyway I hope Ashleigh faces either Kurumi or Monica since both are just coming from clay and have no matchpractice on grass.

Edited by four-leaf

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Nicolas Mahut to beat Paul-Henri Mathieu is a good bet for second round since Mahut is now ranked no.1 in doubles and will celebrate that by beating Lukas Lacko in straight sets on his favourite surface where he will most likely go far this week. I think Mahut can beat Bernard Tomic in a possible quarter.

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Bedene is doing some great serving. He's bombing down ace after ace. I did'nt know he had such a great serve. His serve is very suitable for grass.

Edit: There has'nt been any slow start for Bedene so I wonder how the match will end or wonder how the first set will end except that it will end in a tie-break.

Edit 2: Double fault on setpoint for Bedene in own serve seals the deal. He can serve Ernesto there's no question about that but his lack of routine made him lose the first set. Quite typical for a player of his age and ranking. Eventually Ernesto will start to miss more in the rallies and it will probably cost him the match. If Ernesto now comes back into the match and wins it I will be very surprised since Bedene is in control.

Edited by four-leaf

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Victoria Golubic to beat Anna-Lena Friedsam for a 7/10 stake at 2.25 with Paddypower

Victoria has really improved her game this season and she is soon if not already knocking on the door of top 100 ranked 113 currently. She's qualified and ready for this grass tournament. Anna-Lena has had plenty of time to rest after being knocked out in RG first round but still she's lacking match practice on grass and it's always hard coming in against a qualifier and Victoria is playing really well so I would'nt be surprised to see her winning her first match. It's 2-0 for Anna-Lena in the head to head winning twice in straight sets on hardcourt but those matches were played in 2013 before Victoria improved and became as good as she is this season. Victoria could be worth a shot here.

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Back Radek Stepanek to beat Denis Istomin for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with Skybet

Back Marcos Baghdatis (-3.5) to beat Jan-Lennard Struff for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with Skybet

Agree with what's already been said about Baghdatis, while I'll also back Stepanek to beat Istomin. The Czech is playing great stuff at the moment and he's already played two good qualifying matches here, while Istomin has been poor all season long and doesn't have any form to build on either. 1.72 looks like a decent price to me.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/QuYQor

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Ashleigh Barty (-1.5 sets) to beat Peng Shuai for a 7/10 stake at 2.10 with Bet365

Ash is playing great right now, she's having an average of 70% win on first serve and average 50% on second serve. Grass is really a surface that suites her. What does worry me here is the playing quality of Peng Shuai as she is good enough to take a set, she's a good player coming back from injury but I think she'll have big problems with that first serve of Ash just like Tamira Paszek and Alison Riske had. Alison managed to win by 7-6 7-5 and it all comes down to Ash first serve as the reason why it went so tight. Also it was awhile since Peng played on grass so it will take her some time to get into it and Ash is already into the surface so I'll take my chances with Ash to win in two.

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After a decent end to a horrible RG, it's time for me to rest my betting for a bit with the biggest examinations of my life coming up in a month's time. It have been a truly memorable last 5 months on this forum, certainly the most clean forum and good respectable guys posting their plays.... I might be back for Wimbly depending on how my preparation has proceeded, but until then ADIOS AMIGOS!!! 

MAY THE BETTING GODS FAVOUR YOU ALL MY FRIENDS :)

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4 hours ago, TheBeast said:

After a decent end to a horrible RG, it's time for me to rest my betting for a bit with the biggest examinations of my life coming up in a month's time. It have been a truly memorable last 5 months on this forum, certainly the most clean forum and good respectable guys posting their plays.... I might be back for Wimbly depending on how my preparation has proceeded, but until then ADIOS AMIGOS!!! 

MAY THE BETTING GODS FAVOUR YOU ALL MY FRIENDS :)

Good luck and don't forget to come back!

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John Millman to beat Lucas Pouille @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (1 pt)

Pouille hasn't won a match on grass in nearly three years, so I think he should be a bigger underdog than he is against a player in Millman who's not too shabby on the surface. The Australian played well at Wimbledon last year and will no doubt be looking to build on that, and this represents an excellent chance for him to start his grass court season with a win. Pouille is a talented player and that's reflected in his ranking, but he's unproven on grass and so this looks like a match that's been priced up on reputation rather than ability so it's Millman for me here.

Alexsandra Krunic to beat Mirjana Lucic-Baroni @ 3.40 Coral (1 pt)

I might be missing something here, but I can't see how Krunic deserves to be considered such an outsider in this match. Lucic-Baroni has been in good form but she's got to get used to the surface and her record on grass in recent years isn't all that good. Krunic is taking a lucky loser spot here after being bounced out in qualifying so I guess that goes against her as far as form is concerned, but last year she beat some good players on grass and so I think she'll have a chance in this one.

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5pts V.Troicki to beat F.Mayer 2-0 11/10 Bet365
Both players looking to get into the last 16 here. Flo Mayer is in his home country however he is primarily a clay court player. Since the change of surface of this event from Clay to Grass Troicki has done well in Germany and has points to protect here after progressing to the final last year so he should have the desire to do well. Mayer leads the H2H however, the last meeting was on the clay. I'm going Troicki in two as he bids to go one step further to winning the Merc. 

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5pts F.Lopez to beat M.Youzhny 2-0 11/10 Paddypower
Most other bookies are odds on for this and for good reason. Mikhail has won 1 grass match in 6 over the course of the last two years and that was against James Ward. He has lost to the likes of Jimmy Wang at a big slam and hasn't "performed" on the grass since 2013. Lopez hasn't set the world alight by any means, but you wouldn't expect much from Lopez on the clay-courts. If Lopez can serve well he should get the job done here in two sets. 

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45 minutes ago, Fader said:

5pts V.Troicki to beat F.Mayer 2-0 11/10 Bet365
Both players looking to get into the last 16 here. Flo Mayer is in his home country however he is primarily a clay court player. Since the change of surface of this event from Clay to Grass Troicki has done well in Germany and has points to protect here after progressing to the final last year so he should have the desire to do well. Mayer leads the H2H however, the last meeting was on the clay. I'm going Troicki in two as he bids to go one step further to winning the Merc. 

Though, I don't think this is a bad tip by any means, I think it's still worth mentioning that Mayer's best results at the Grand Slams have actually come on grass- he's a former Wimbledon quarter-finalist and I even remember commentators labelling him a grass court specialist. He's not someone I'd be backing against on grass ...however, I do agree that Troicki looks set to have a good grass court season.

 

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2 hours ago, Fader said:

5pts V.Troicki to beat F.Mayer 2-0 11/10 Bet365
Both players looking to get into the last 16 here. Flo Mayer is in his home country however he is primarily a clay court player. Since the change of surface of this event from Clay to Grass Troicki has done well in Germany and has points to protect here after progressing to the final last year so he should have the desire to do well. Mayer leads the H2H however, the last meeting was on the clay. I'm going Troicki in two as he bids to go one step further to winning the Merc. 

Welcome Back! :)

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Back Florian Mayer to beat Michael Berrer for a 7/10 stake at 1.50 with Skybet

Baghdatis just went crazy after the conditions deteriorated, can't do much about that, glad that Stepanek won though, as did Kohli. Tomorrow, I'll be taking Mayer, who's very much a man on a mission at the moment. He's beaten Brands, Bachinger and Troicki without dropping any sets already, so I reckon that he should be a heavy fav against Berrer.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/mmFwEG

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Ashleigh Barty (-1.5 sets) to beat Andrea Hlavackova for a 8/10 stake at 1.90 with Paddypower

Ash is so good so I just got to have her win in straight sets as my number 1 bet tomorrow. Andreas road will end here and it should have ended before but she got lucky facing Yanina Wickmayer after being knocked out by Michelle Larcher De Brito in the qualies but received a lucky loser pass. Now she's out. No way she'll cope with Ash and her first serves.

Edit: Ash road will most likely end in the quarter where Karolina Pliskova is waiting but she'll keep it tight with probably a 7-5 or tie-break to happen.

Edited by four-leaf

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