Snoopdog
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Posts posted by Snoopdog
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Since the update, this seems to be lost - or has nobody got anything to get off their chest.
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Off Topic - re Greyhounds Strange, but I don't see a greyhounds sub-forum. Am I missing it? Anyway, lots of horse followers will watch a Sky dogs night. Tonight was Yarmouth 7.11 to 9.08pm. Anyway, congratulations to the Sporting Life website which tipped a remarkable 7 from 8 winners at SP prices of: 3/1; 7/4; 10/11; 7/4; loser; 4/1; 2/1; 13/8. This is a truly remarkable performance !!! Feeling like a little action while not having a clue, I simply backed races where the Racing Post picks and Sporting Life picks were in concensus. This gave 3 winners from 4.
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Probably non PC to speak about other forums on here, but the GG forum was quite literally destroyed by changes and upgrades. People hated their new forum so much, they ended up killing it off.
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Mr Benn, Like you I tend to work on selective well fancied horses (95% favourites). These systems generally get you close, but suffer from a lot of seconditis. Here's something I look at to determine how "bad" the value is. Compare the price's overround contribution (2/1 = 33%) to the chances of victory shown on the home page of the RP website (bottom right) for every race. Backing favs, you can expect the price contribution to be 10% below fair chance - (but we are selective, so hope to beat that!). Sometimes though it's much worse and should be avoided. Have you considered a system based on unnamed "second favs" where the race stats are not good for the fav. Longer losing runs, but much better prices. You could either use unnamed 2nd favs or select the likely 2nd fav in the morning to get BOG. My bookmaker late father told me the smart second fav backer was tough to beat.
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Re: Online Betting Abroad? It's been a few years since I last went, but my PP account used to work fine in the USA on the laptop with "no unusual procedures" needed.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I never knew that either, but it's clear why they do it. If you are striking a bet inside 10 minutes, you "really" want to do it, and have little time to shop around. So they have no need to offer enticements like BOG. Do we know if most other bookies are the same on this ?
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Yes, it was impressive. Gosden advised the public that GH might be the better of his. Golden Horn is 6/4 - with a run for Epson Derby with PP. Seems very short.
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Re: My BackPlace rates (UK, Ireland) >> Yes, it's the selection process I'm interested in. Thanks.
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Re: My BackPlace rates (UK, Ireland) Quick question. Looking at your original post: Are your selections taken directly from Timeform? If so, excatly what determines whether you go with a particular Timeform selection. Thanks.
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Re: RP Naps - Historical Data ML, Any updates for us on your analysis? I'm interested.
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Re: RP Naps - Historical Data I look at the naps table at Napchecker.com . I ignore 1 nap, take slight note of 2 naps (espec if big price), but 3+ is worth serious consideration.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread ML was good today, but it's becomming the exception. During Cheltenham, it was dire (IMHO). I'm afraid I cannot do with Matty Batchelor, and a daily session of him refereeing jockey arm wrestling was awful. Shouldn't the show be about picking winners ??? Yet they seem to only preview 2 races now. Why all this filler crap? Regarding Ms Spencer, she used to not appear on the show during jumps season as she stated no interest in it. So why is someone with "no interest" on the show ? Let's have more race previews, more tipping guests like Tom Segall, the Timeform guys, etc, etc.
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Re: 2014 Review I've just finished reading "One hunderd hints for better betting" by Mark Coton. Recommend it. He keeps hitting on cutting out the bad bets. This is a trait I recognise in myself - and for 2015 I hope to seriously reduce them ! In my case, these (mostly losers) might be: 1. On going through the cards on a morning, no horses fully fit my selection criteria, so I force it a bit, relaxing my requirements. There's nothing wrong in a day without a bet. 2. It's miserable outside, but the racing's on the telly. Again we force it a bit. It's OK to watch without a bet. 3. Those extra bets ! Having made a few decent selections which fit my criteria at the start of the day, I start watching it on the telly. It's easy to get persuaded by the studio "expert", then start placing extra bets on races where I had no selection. I think I can get another 10% return by cutting out the bad ones. So onwards to a more prfitable 2015.
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Re: The Betting Lab match if a player was leading 2-0 and pulled back to 2-2 you should back him to go on and win the match despite the momentum being with the guy who has come from behind? Always better value.>>> I noticed similar in snooker years ago. When a guy pulls back from way down to force a final frame, go against him. [Eg Ding, a couple of days ago lost 5-6 from 1-5 down.]
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Re: Dave Nevison - disillusioned value punter? I've just finished DN's "No Easy Money". Drifting from the thread a bit, another point he makes is that he still makes decent (if not as good as before) money from backing with BF and bookies (so his systems and judgement of value are still good), but he has been unsuccessful at landing a Scoop-6 or a large Tote Jackpot despite massive investment. Chasing the "life changing" win would not be my style, and it would seem shouldn't be his. That said, "when you're hot, you're hot", so I feel it's worth throwing in the odd accumulator - but only as a fun bet. A good example is someone (like me) who picks 5 American Footbal games a week. They are handicapped, so odds are always ~10/11 either side. About once a year (17 week regular season), I will get all 5 correct, so it's worth a fun bet, but definately not the main action. The many references to Harry Findlay's approach are also interesting. I have always believed (like HF) value can exist in a 2/5 chance, if he feels 1/5 is correct. Last season, I only lost one T20 cricket match with odds ~1/6 from 10+ bets - usually betting about 5 overs into 2nd innings.
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Re: Binchy's Lays Binchy, I'll be watching this one. On Napchecker, an unprecidented five newspapers have it napped. I don't fancy it. 220 days off and top weight. Good luck.
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Re: Binchy's Lays Binchy, Take heart. You're not alone. I have developed a similar laying system. It is looking at favourites that are less than 9/4 (to limit liability). I don't wish at this point to go into details of filters. Firstly, it seems to be generating fewer selections than a month back. It used to generate ~ 4 or 5 per day. Now, maybe 0,1,2. Secondly, too many of the lay selections have been winners recently ! I'm putting it down to "tail end of flat" and "beginning of jumps", also going changes. I'm still doing the daily analysis which takes about 30 minutes - but not actioning until things settle which I think they will. I expect things to improve. Regards.
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Re: Binchy's Lays Binchy, I follow your thread regularly as I also am developing a lay based system. Have you (or thread followers) giving any thought to optimising the timing of the bet ? I note your yesterday's lay, War Alert went off at SP of 10/11 vs 2.7/1 on your post. For most of us, it's not practical to be constantly monitoring prices, so we tend to have a choice of early (around 10 am for me), or take BSP. Thanks and keep up the good work.
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Re: Ratings - Dail Mail Formcast All back to normal today. Ie top rated = 78.
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For years the top rated horse by Formcast in the Daily Mail was on a mark of 78. (I have no idea what is magic about the number 78). But from today - and without a word of explanation in the paper, the 78 has disappeared. The Formcast numbers are now similar numbers to Racing Post ratings (which are similar numbers to Official Ratings - adjusted for handicap and other factors of opinion of chances). The may not be a bad thing and potentially opens up more avenues for "system inventors" but a few words of explanation would have been nice. I use the Formcast top rated as one of the inputs in one of my systems.
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Re: C4 Derby TV figures slump. Has Racing lost its appeal? Racing is losing its appeal simply because there is so much else to bet on, eg football, cricket, tennis, golf, American Football, politics. There is also so much to understand in racing, and the average 20 year old isn't that interested. How many people truly understand how to read the racecards in the morning paper. A few years ago I e-mailed Tanya at Channel4 suggesting a 10 minute sports betting segment at the end of Morning Line. She replied saying she would put it to the producer - but apparantly no interest. I recall from years ago Derek McGovern having a sports betting show on Channel4 after Morning Line. It didn't last long.
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Re: Binchy's Lays Perfect. Thanks.
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Re: Binchy's Lays Following this thread withgreat interest, and planning variations ! May Binchy enjoy recharging his batteries. Thanks. Billiboy, You stated: > Could you please advise these sites covering the major newspaper tipsters. Thanks.
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Re: Santos Ratings 2014 (Dutch System) Fasciating results (looking at 2014 overall). A much better ROI - both % and £ from second choice - and from a lower stake. These loosely fits with my dad's observation (shop bookie in 60s, 70s) that some of the toughest punters to beat were the confirmed (and selective) second favourite backers. Keep up the good work. [Personally, I don't like backing two in one race.]
Racing Chat Thread
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Maidens:
The new approach which from next year replaces many/most maidens with Novice Races seems like a good idea to me.
The reasoning being that once a horse has won a maiden, there's not much for it to do until the Nursery handicaps start later in the year. Now non-winners will be able to run against winners in a Novice race with a penalty for a win and a double penalty for two wins [not sure of those details], similar to Novice Hurdles.
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