Snoopdog
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Posts posted by Snoopdog
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Re: Wimbledon 2013 Correction: I also took Bartoli to win 1+ sets at 4/6. [There's indiscipline for you - can't even remember what I've backed] Further correction: "blasters", not "balsters" !!!
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Re: Wimbledon 2013 Bartoli is super strong going side to side (in the expected direcion) on the baseline. I feel she's vulnerable to the wrong footing ball behind her, or being pulled in to net. The serve while unusual isn't that bad. I feel Bartoli is mentally tougher. I've taken (all PP): 3 sets @ 5/4 >8.5 total DFs @ EV >8.5 total aces @ EV I agree with the newspaper this game is a refreshing change from the usual grunting balsters.
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The message on screen says: "ATR teletext is no longer available - use online, etc" Shame, I found it very useful for results in front of the TV. It was "old fashioned teletext", as carried on old analog TV - but it was fast. The big drawback to the above was that it did not work if your box (Sky or Virgin) was connected via an HDMI cable. It needed an old fashioned Scart connection. So for results on TV, I guess it's BBC or Ch4 teletext via red-button.
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Re: 3 Horseracing Thoughts Per Day Agora, It's been 3 days since our last class.
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Re: 3 Horseracing Thoughts Per Day The posts all sound like quotes from an upcoming book. I'd be delighted to buy the book after seeing a few selections, as BH also requests. I don't even expect all winners - just a decent ROI.
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Re: Mr Dettori As we are digressing onto Fallon. I feel he seems much more likeable these days (on TV, etc).
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Re: ATR losing Irish Racing to RUK? The split screens are inevitable when 2 races are running at the same time. In fairness to ATR, they usually rerun interesting action. I'm happy with ATR. A little more coordination between courses (including Ireland) could reduce the number of split screens. Is it too much to ask another course (even in Ireland) to hold their start 2 minutes ? And ATR is (almost) free. R-UK is expensive.
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See this morning's papers. Firstly, I've always appreciated the outspoken opinions of JM. Sure, some things he says are out of line, but he's generally on our side. He seemed to become increasingly borish towards the end, eg saying Sam Waley Cohens Long Run should have a "proper jockey" on board. Even dear Tanya seemed to get tired of him calling Nick Luck Lord Snooty. But this £3M payout he wants for "age discrimination" is ridiculous. He says he fighting fore every sacked oldie. TV presenters are generally on a contract, ie not company employees - so at any time the bosses can say: "We are not renewing your contract; or we'll pay you to the end of your contract; go now". Is he really doing this for the money, or to prove a point, or some kind of personal vanity ? I don't think age has anything to do with his removal from Ch4. I don't hear about Francome or Lesley Graham complaing. By the way, after a nervous start, I think Graham is doing a good job.
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Re: ATR losing Irish Racing to RUK? Digressing and moving a bit off-topic from punting, R-UK is Jockey Club owned (I think) - All the Jockey Club tracks are on R-UK. I consider myself a reasonably astute investor and like bonds from solid companies - which I'm sure the Jockey Club is. But I did not think the recent JC retail bond was impressive. It offerered a 7.75% return (sounds great) BUT that was 4.75% (cash) + 3% in JC benefits which were clearly written out in a way that they were unlikely ever to be redeemed. Pure marketing. Also, it was not a tradeable bond that could be held in a brokerage account, eg Hargreaves Lansdown. Apparantly, it was very fully subscribed, but not including me. I was not very impressed.
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Re: ATR losing Irish Racing to RUK? Firstly if Racing UK got Irish racing then it would need a name change (Ireland is not part of the UK). I get ATR included in my basic Virgin cable TV sub, and think it is excellent. Racing UK is actually quite expensive to add. I wasn't aware that Ascot was switching from ATR to RUK. Are you sure ? I suppose Ascot and Doncaster are ATR's highest profile tracks. Hope they don't lose them. ATR has just lost Hereford and Fokestone by virtue of their closure. Which ones did it lose last year ? I prefer jumps to flat so ATR's coverage of the smaller jump tracks suited me. I have no interest in the American racing apart from the highest profile events. I'd rather ATR showed UK greyhounds in the evening (when no evening horseracing meetings).
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Re: Spotting a system Thanks for that Cowan.
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Re: Dawn Approach in the Derby yep, just read in this morning's paper that Bolger said he **might** have got an iron in the ribs which caused him to blow a fuse.
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DA was clearly wound up, and bound to burn out before 1.5 miles. Keiron Fallon is the best jockey I've seen for switching a horse with dubious stamina off, and keeping it steady at the the back. Do any of you feel KF (or anyone else) could have calmed down DA ? Cheers.
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Re: Spotting a system Hi Danny C, Thanks for comments. I used to read the Usenet newsgroup - uk.rec.sports.horseracing but it has faded into almost unused. This forum is the business. Yes, I have read Dave Nevis's "A bloody good winner". You clearly refer to my latest idea of where the race time price is very different from tissue. It goes against the grain for me to back more than one to win a race (it's OK if all are big prices). I always give the example of back two horses at 2/1, and you are backing at 1/2 (not evens) which goes against the grain. A perfect example is where some of my American friends ask me to put on a bet and leave the staking to my judgement. This guy sent me for the Preakness: Orb (evens), Goldencents (13/2), Oxbow (20/1). Oxbow won, but I ended up apologising for getting him 1/2 on a 20/1 winner - I adjusted stakes to win equal amounts. My philiosophy for backing more than one in a race is usually to back the shorter one to win, and the longer priced one Place only. At least both can return. Another system idea I'm thinking of is something based on un-named 2nd favs. My father was a shop bookie when it was first legal (~1962 ??). He always remarked that some of the most successful slip customers were backing un-named 2nd favs - frequently crossed and doubled. My bookie, PP doesn't seem to offer cross bets (stakes across). Has this bet disappeared? It seems excellent punter value if both are big prices. Now to find the style of race for 2nd favs ! Cheers all !
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Re: Spotting a system Hi Machine, Very interesting - and close to my British jumps system. Papers: I'm actually a Times reader, but I got a great deal on a DM subscription (that's my excuse). However I consider the 3 DM tipsters (Formcast 78 black spot, Robin Goodfellow, Gimcrack) as the best in the business. That jumps system is something like this: 1. Must be Formcast 78 selection. 2. Must be selection of either RG or G. 3. Must have a win by its name. 4. Eliminate if odds-on, big field handicap, more than 50 days off, or Formcast has a 77 where I rate the jockey or trainer as superior. It gets a good number of winners (but a lot of seconds too). If more than 5/1, I've tended to back place only (if 8,9,10 runners). While I collect more often, I feel I would have done better win only. Very frustrating to have backed an 8/1 winner, but taken ~2/1 place only. It doesn't work well on flat or Irish jumps. I keep looking for the magic bullet that doesn't involve much study.
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Firstly, my main interest is British jumps. I enjoy it most, but also I've been somewhat unsuccessful with flat or Irish jumps. I have developed a system for British jumps, but that's a story for another day. It seems to be running very slightly better than break even - but that's OK as I get my entertainment. I'm not the kind of person to study long-term form, so most selections are based on the newspaper. This is something I might have spotted watching today's racing from Brighton and Lingfield on ATR. It seems like it might give a few good priced winners on the flat. It goes like this. Morning paper (Daily Mail) clear favourite that is totally unloved at racetime. Two clear examples today: 1. 4.50 Lingfield. Jive is 5/2 fav in paper. Wins nicely at 7/1. 2. 5.30 Brighton. Yojojo is 2/1 fav in paper. Wins nicely at 7/2. Any comments / criticisms. Be brutal. Cheers.
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Re: Napsters I would have thought that a nap was "by definition" their best bet of the day. So what I find very odd is how often the nap is in the "big, high-profile race". Also often a big price, eg 10/1. I think a 6/4 chance in a lower profile race is a much more serious nap.
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Re: Your daily selection process On Mon-Fri, I mostly rely on my Daily paper. On Sat, I usually add Racing Plus and watch Morning Line. I've actually built up a system (still in refinement), more later. It takes me 5 minutes using a mix of several newspaper tipsters, RP website, SL website, recent finishes. Then throw out a few, eg large field handicaps, anything shorter than 8/11. Possibly add one or two in - eg AP McCoy on a horse, I woouldn't expect him on; or a recognised trainer vs unheared of. Only interested in UK jumps.
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Re: Wednesday 3:20: Queen Mother Champion Chase I took a different approach. I took Sizing Europe - Place Only (2) at 4/5, considering SS unbackable at 2/7. Now really weird: Paddy P near the off were SE 4/5 (PO2), also 4/5 without SS. Early in the day it was 4/5 PO2, or 5/6 w/o SS. Still not much difference. How could they possibly be same odds PO2 as win w/o SS ??? Surely SS could have fallen and as long as SE was second, that's enough. Have I missed something ? Rob
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This was an excellent show. Did anybody write down the MW selections, or is there a web-site where available ? Thanks, Rob
Worst Tracks for short priced Favs...getting beat
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Worst Tracks for short priced Favs...getting beat [i'm only really interested in jumps] I have seen several ultra-shorties beaten at Fakenham (eg 1/4, 1/9). I would never bet serious odds-on in low value/ low profile races. That said, I consider 2/5, 1/3, etc can be OK, even value on ultra-high profile, eg Istabraq, Sprinter Sacre, etc at Cheltenham. Even then, I'd cut-off at 1/3.