Snoopdog
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Posts posted by Snoopdog
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Re: Narrowing the field
Say for example its a 12 horse race and the fav is 4/6, 2nd fav is 3/1. You back a 16/1 shot EW. Chances are on all known form you are taking on 9 other horses for the one place up for grabs. You stake £1 EW (£2) if it places you get £4.20 back, just over Evens for your money. A perfect example of where I would be betting Place Only. If it's 16/1 for a win, then it will probably be around 3/1 Place only. [PP usually have Place Only odds up by around 11am] -
Re: Computer Straight Forecast - calculation Thanks guys.
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Does anybody have a link to the formula / algorithm, or any info on the CSF calculation. Today at Cheltenham 1.20; Oscar Whiskey (5/6) beat Taquin du Seuil (6/4). The CSF only returned 2.51 (=6/4). The pool Exacta 2.30 (even worse). I thought the formula was based on "add one to either price, then multiply", eg evens + evens gives 2/1. Now I remember hearing popular combinations have had the formula cut back - eg fav beats 2nd fav, certain draw combinations at certain tracks. The Cheltenham example above was an example of fav beats 2nd fav - but I would still expect better than the odds of one runner. Thanks
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Re: a cracking horse racing system to boost your profits. I'm concerned by: odds).>>> This rule would seem to include 1/10 chances. Maybe one of the forum can look at past form to check out the system using past results. Maybe it does better on certain kinds of race. Maybe anything odds-on should not be bet. Interesting though.
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Re: The Jockey Thread Did anyone see what happened in the race? Does somebody have a link to watch it, please. >> I don't know whether it was a reference to this particular incident or a general comment, but Peter Scu was talking about when you have the rail and another horse tries to force you off it to get through.
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Details are at: www.racinguk.com/freetrial I probably wont be signing up as I object to the "passive switching on" of the subscription. This seems so common these days. If they really want to offer a free trial, they could tell Sky and Virgin to make it free to view for a month or give out a password for online access. >>
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread McCririck loses age discrimination suit. Lots of newspaper articles - if you go to "Google News" and search "John McCririck". I heared him on Radio 4's Today show, this morning. I think his voice has changed a little - has he had a stroke ? It seems he had some sympathy from Lesley Graham (I never liked her sickly, sweet style) and Tommo, though Tommo stated they were not close (that means they disliked each other a lot). He did have a point about the "suits and skirts" wanting to put in changes to prove themselves, but overall I feel his case had no merit. He has 2 houses in a Ritzy part of London. His lawsuit was no win - no fee (lots of free publicity), though he paid the barrister. I doubt he has improved his chances of more (haven't seen him in a while) work on ATR.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Never apologise for reading the Daily Mail ! Congratulations to Robin Goodfellow (Sam Turner) - Daily Mail on today's selections at Wincanton: Wincanton: 1st: Won 11/4 (I took 7/2 this morning) 2nd: Won 17/2 3rd: Second 17/2 4th: Won 9/2 5th: Won 5/2 (I took 5/4 place only, this morning) 6th: Won 11/8 (I took 13/8, this morning) 7th: (bumper): Nowhere
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Re: Towcester & McCoy's milestone Top jocks while I have been watching have gone through Peter Scudamore, Richard Dunwoody, AP McCoy. Whose next? Sam T-D ??? Of course it loks like AP has a few years left. How does his age compare with the 3 aforementioned when they called it a day ? Honourable mentions to Ruby W and Barry G - but they are mainly in Ireland these days.
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Re: Tottenham Hotspur v Hull City > Sunday October 27th Yesterday I did the PP "Money back as a free football bet if you lose" 5x accumulator. Expecting little chance of winning 5 from 5. Took all the shortest, and have won with ManU, Liverpool, Arsenal, Southampton - waiting for Tottenham. So I have backed Hull +1 as a little insurance. A bird in the hand...........
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Re: To specialise or not to specialise? I've always enjoyed the jumps most. We all generally find one kind of bet suits us best and is more successful than others. Fortunately I'm more succesful at the jumps - so now only take a very quick look for possible selections on the flat - and then it's generally just Maiden Stakes races. The puzzle of a big field handicap does not appeal. Improve chance of success by NOT having a bet "just because it's a big race on TV on a Saturday". Ascot Champions Day was a perfect example of "forcing bets beacuse we fancy a little action". Not one winner for me. I know this but seem to keep ignoring it.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I totally agree on the US coverage - crap quality and much 4:3. In fact US racing does nothing for me except Triple Crown races + Breeders' Cup. Take away the big meetings in the US, and look how pathetically low the Pari-Mutuel pool is on most races. It makes a wet Tuesday at Plumpton or Lingfield AW look big time.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Thanks for reply Robertob. You are correct about ATR picture quality - and the reason is better definition (but not going as far as HD) means more bandwidth required which costs more money. Quite unbelievable that many of the US tracks still send out their pictures in 4:3 - not widescreen 16:9. It will always be tough for a "free" channel to compete with a "pay" channel. Extracting top $ for media rights is not always best for the sport. For example, I think Rugby League actually suffered as a sport when they left free terrestrial for Sky As you, I like Chapman's opinionated style. Boyce also does a good job of presentation - but more low key. The Timeform guests generally supply good information. The big guy in the studio on the South African racing is a bit of a joke (Joe de Mato ???) and would appear to be heading rapidly for bankruptcy based on his selections. You seem to be saying it looks like ATR have retained Irish racing. If so, then good in my humble opinion.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread ATR vs R-UK: Saturday's Daily Mail showed Ascot as covered by both ATR and R-UK (plus C4 on terrestrial). Ascot is ATR's showpiece track. I hope ATR are not losing it to R-UK - and I think there were rumours re R-UK trying to get Ascot. ATR is basically free, whereas R-UK is ~ 25 per month which my betting cannot justify. I'm already paying enough for Sky Sports. I'd be interested in knowing the number of viewers each channel has. Surely ATR (free) has at least 10x as many as R-UK. Incidentally, when a race is available on C4 and ATR (or R-UK) which do you tend to watch? I tend to like the style/presentation of ATR.
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Re: My Horse Racing Betting Hi 1878, Reasoning ? The results seem to be 4 losers (one 3rd).
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Re: My Horse Racing Betting Hi 1878, What is the system / methodology of selection ?
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Re: Peacock's Placepots
I guess you could' date=' wondering if it it would return the same odds, though?[/quote'] My guess is the PO accumulator would do far better if you picked successful non-favs, but the favs also managed to place. -
Re: Peacock's Placepots Couldn't you manufacture this bet with a Place only accumulator? Presumably that would have much less creamed off than the Tote version.
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Re: McCoy at decent prices - possible system AP has a couple of big priced ones today that look in with a chance. I've taken (all 1pt with PP): Market Ras, 2.55 Coffee, 8/1, but I took 2/1 Place only 3. Market Ras, 3.30 Galaxy Rock, 15/2, but I took 6/4 Place only 4 Also took him on 4.40 Market Ras, My Mate Vinnie at 5/2.
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Re: MAX13 - A Lay System Boulder, What is the reasoning behind your lay selections?
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Re: McCoy at decent prices - possible system Finky, I would be very interested to see the selections.
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Re: McCoy at decent prices - possible system I believe AP's riding style has changed a bit over the past few years. He has always given absolutely 100% to win a race, but nowadays I think he throws in the towel much quicker when it's clearly not going to happen; almost to the point where if he rode to his old reputation he could have squeezed a place - maybe whip rules. I also rarely see him try to make all these days - maybe instructions, or the kind of horse, or the just races I've watched.
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Re: Each way betting
I mentioned in another thread that my father who was a shop bookie from the early 60s told me some of his most successful slip customers were backing un-named 2nd favs. The selections were often put into doubles, each-way doubles and stakes across bets. He used to calculate the slips around 8pm in the dining room, then occasionaly marching into the living room appalled to show mum a slip of someone getting a big return from a negligible outlay using a strategy like this.Ive recently strted doing ew doubles at prices of around 5/2. If both are placed you make a tiny profit but if they both win a nice profit is made. Its working out quiet nicely so far and I would recommend it. -
I'm beginning to think there's a system brewing here, but probably 1000s of others also think so and the value has gone. I have neither the time nor inclination to follow 1000+ horses, so brainless systems are very appealing to me. It's no surprise when AP rides an even money winner for Jonjo/JP or loses on a 6/4 chance. But I do seem to notice him getting a lot of winners on apparant no-hopers at decent prices from other trainers. Examples include Planetoid, then Bold Raider at NA on Tuesday. AP is a fantastic jockey, and can keep a horse settled and jumping and stay on board better than any. So I think he may be employed when the horse is ready and the handbrake is released. Do any of you have a way of looking up the performance (for this year since his return, and the whole of last year) of a level stakes bet every ride at greater than 3/1, 4/1, 5/1 ???? Cheers.
The Jockey Thread
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: The Jockey Thread Luke Morris - riding style: Why is his whip arm going round like a windmill in a finish ? If it's for "style", I don't like it. If it's to whip harder, I don't like it. If it's for rhythm, the other guys don't do it.