Snoopdog
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Posts posted by Snoopdog
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I'm going to continue with a system I developed last year based on CBS Power Rankings, and selections for the Westgate, Las Vegas (was Hilton) Handicapping Contest. I know things haven't yet settled down, but I'm itching to start.
Week 1 pix are:
(all one point at ~ 10/11)
Balt -7.5 WIN
Pitt -3.5 LOSE
Cincy +2 WIN
Minne -6.5 WIN
NO -10 LOSE
Carol -2.5 WIN
Denver -3 PUSH
Detroit -6.5 TONIGHT
I'll be flipping between the golf and NFL tonight
Reasonable start. Pitt really blew a good lead. Didn't see the Tampa/NO result coming but I have previously noticed it can often be a worthwhile bet to back the biggest dog (Tampa +10) straight up / money line. I guess they were about 4/1.
Yesterday's TV was runied - no golf (rain), no Nascar (rain), no US Open tennis (don't have Amazon Prime). I think we get the golf and Nascar today.
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I'm going to continue with a system I developed last year based on CBS Power Rankings, and selections for the Westgate, Las Vegas (was Hilton) Handicapping Contest. I know things haven't yet settled down, but I'm itching to start.
Week 1 pix are:
(all one point at ~ 10/11)
Balt -7.5
Pitt -3.5
Cincy +2
Minne -6.5
NO -10
Carol -2.5
Denver -3
Detroit -6.5
I'll be flipping between the golf and NFL tonight
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On 05/08/2018 at 12:10 PM, BillyHills said:
You can bet place only at quite a few bookies but not many would allow the extra place.
Paddy generally lets you choose the number of places for Place Only (especially extra places in the big field Saturday Heritage Handicaps). Of course the odds decline with increasing number of places.
[My late father, ex bookie used to say it amazed him how in an apparantly impossible handicap that come SP time, the punters had figured it out and the fav won.]
I have concluded that my E/W and PO betting is less successful than my win bets.
It always feels like you've backed a loser, if you bet PO and it wins.
As a result, I now tend to keep PO bets for when I want to back more than one horse in a race.
Suggest you quote the bookie, PO odds and number of places in PO selections.
In the hunt for value, I try to avoid accepting worse than ~ 1/5 the win odds on PO3, or worse than 1/6 the win odds on PO4, 1/7 the win odds on PO5.
Occasionally you find an anomaly where E/W terms are 1/5 E/W3, yet PO3 is higher than 1/5 win. In those cases if you want to bet E/W, then do separate win and place bets.
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Hmmm. My formula doesn't work very well either.
Strad = 4/5; Torcedor = ~ evens w/o Strad
4/5 x 1+1 = 1.6/1 which also does not fit well. On that basis, I think the f/c was value.
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In an obvious forecast like the Goodwood 3.35 : Stradivarius 4/5 (clear and odds-on fav) beats Torcedor 100/30 (clear 2nd fav), the odds basic rule of thumb (of add 1 to 2nd, multiply by winner) does not work well. Ie 4/5 x 3.33+1 = 3.464/1
I don't have to hand the w/o Stradivarius price of Torcedor, but I think: add 1 to the w/o price of the 2nd fav, then multipy by the fav price would be much closer.
The forecast paid £3.80 = 2.8/1
Does anyone have the w/o Strad price of Torcedor near the off, or other related ideas? There seems a lack of transparancy re forecast (CSF) odds.
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I think it's about time I gave Firefox a cleanup!
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When looking at the racecards on the RP website, the cards complete very quickly, but loading the live prices can take an age (sometimes minutes).
Is this just me?
3GHz sinlge core, 4Gb RAM, Windows 7 16 bit, 100Mbps broadband. Firefox.
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Why not just lay the shorty. If you want to trial a system, BETDAQ will let you do a 50p lay. If you can find odds-on to oppose, then of couse liability is less than stake.
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21 hours ago, F.A.B. said:
Personallly I would never bet on a race with over 14 runners and for this particular system involving the first three favourites I would limit it to 12. Why? Because I've found that races with 13 or 14 runners, the 4th, 5th, 6th and even the 7th favourite win more regularly than in a smaller field.
I totally agree:
1. More runners, then more chances of a big surprise (as you imply).
2. More runners, then higher bookie's over-round.
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And the rivally with Kauto and the larger than life Harry Findlay made for a great period of racing
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What a mess the sport is in! There's an article in today's Daily Mail.
Anyway, tonight is Greyhound Derby night from Towcester (9.07pm).
Sky nights seems to have ended. [I wish VirginMedia would carry RPGTV.]
To watch go to: You Tube "Towcester TV".
The 6/4 fav, Droopy's Veve was only 2 yesterday! Only 15 races, 11 wins 4 seconds.
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I expect we all know about the ATR rebrand to Sky Sports Racing, and getting Bangor and Chester.
This mornings Daily Mail says that the SSR channel is going after Ascot, and the extra exposure on SSR will be an Ascot consideration when bids are considered.
It's a pity ATR wasn't a bit more aggressive sooner. Racing needs a free outlet, rather than a niche audience.
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On 18/04/2018 at 1:56 PM, Baracca said:
Hi Bubbles180,
Can u help me, if u have the stats? Could u please tell me if is profitable to use the TREBLE tips to make DOUBLE bets?
Baracca, I recall hearing in the early days of PL tips that 3 doubles was working better than 1 treble. I don't know about recently. It should impove the strike rate (if not ROI) which keeps up interest. I'm interested to know myself as I was going to advise this as an automatic system bet for the other half to get into this game.
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VT is surely correct if you bet ~ Even money chances and ~ 33/1 chances.
However my bets tend to be either ~6/4-2/1 or ~7/2-5/1 (that's what my systems produce). I used to bet 1pt the shorter ones, 0.8pt the longer ones. I have done better since changing to level stakes.
Books like "Betting for a Living" - Nick Mordon and "Against the Odds" - Alan Potts even suggest you should have more on the longer prices. I can't bring myself to that.
[Digressing from staking, The worst value often lies between 4/6 and 6/4 as those are the horses the public love to back - per bookmaker Geoff Banks.]
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Bronxie,
You are correct about the offer, but it is for new customers and there are restrictions on use of the free bet.
Good luck.
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Bronxie, I use PP, and don't see that offer.
I see:
"Money Back as a Free Bet on All Losers on the First 5 Races at Aintree on Thursday and Friday if the SP favourite Wins!Pre-race singles only. Max Free Bet €/£10. (T&Cs apply)"Maybe your offer is to buy new customers ???
Of course the fav may not win. But if you fancy it, might as well have a couple of extra bets. I think that offer is often made when the bookie feels he has a good chance fo getting the fav beat.
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I know how you feel. On the occasions when back Place Only, if it goes and wins, it feels like backing a loser.
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Your results are very impressive at finding big price placed horses.
Have you considered backing Place Only, rather than EW?
Just a thought.
Keep 'em coming.
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Bob, (some more),
I agree with you that bookies are not stupid.
You are wrong saying the bet is not allowed.
I take exception to you calling me an idiot. Was that necessary - even if you were right?
- Valiant Thor, Alastair and BillyHills
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Bob,
When I last checked, Paddy's betslip seemed to be setting it up just right - giving the right number of lines with different numbers of selections in each race. (eg 1,2,3 per race). And you don't have to make a selection on races you deem too tough.
Try it on your online accounts.
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1 hour ago, BOB PATRICK said:
I know the difference between a place pot and a jackpot. I don't even know why you would insult my intelligence like that.
Seeing as you mention the Placepot, I've often thought a Place Only acca would probably give a better return - espec if the fav and 2nd fav keep making the frame.
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Bumpers for Jumpers: Apparantly the rules state a horse can only run in so many bumpers. But the rule doesn't apply to these hastily arranged fixtures in bad weather. Our addiction and fodder for the betting shops has to be filled.
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The pain continues.
Chelmsford moving to R-UK from 2019.
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I suppose most of you know this by now:
It doesn't leave much else but the ARC tracks and a few of the small jump tracks.
[Yesterday's Leopardstown meeting was excellent.]
I hope we don't get lots of European racing and Meydan
NFL 2018/19
in NFL Predictions
Posted
Thursday night is Balt @ Cincy by 1.
Power rankings suggest Cincy by 2, so no bet.
[However my gut feel is Balt.]