Pirate53

I'm not really keen on including 'market position' or forecast odds or actual odds in any rating system .... or in any of the trends type approach
I reckon the point of doing any sort of ratings or trends analysis is to discover which horse you think 'should' be favourite and hopefully it will be one that the market has missed and then you can get some value
If you're skewing your ratings towards the favourite by giving him extra points it seems to defeat the object

Had a go at Plum 14.50:
Echo Watt       8.2       My odds 5/1              11/4
Shanroe Santos  7.9    My odds 5.25/1         5/1
Young Turk     7.65     My odds 11/2            20/1
I See You Well   7.15   My odds 6/1             7/2
Young Turk the value bet, Echo probably wins.

1st I see You Well 
2nd Cheque En Blanc
3rd Young Turk
not much between them either with all 3 in with a chance approaching the end. Quite pleased with that regarding ratings.

You get a wider range of odds if you multiply your ratings rather than add them together.
Alternatively you could square each factor.
 

I use recent form ...last time and a form rating for 2nd section.. that normally provides a good spread to start before adding the other sections ....im getting spreads from 3/1 to 50/1 so  the form sections really do a good job 

Deleyll was my 3rd rated at 7/1, well behind top 2 but moved up due to NRs. Was a value bet so should have spotted that!

I had them as badly rated for the price. We'll see how it goes.

I'll start with today's race ......run a side by side comparison .....all horses within the top rated band if a profit can be made  .....with any value bets that are in the top rated band only   ....it might turn out that these types of bets are rare but when they do occur they are Rock solid bets especially ew ....I definately think specialising is the best way to use these bets given the evidence ......the top rated form bets if they make money might be good on their own right too we shall see 

That's what I mean the top rated are winning a lot but sometimes are a shade outside the value but still win anyway .....theres a lot of winners coming from top 2 or 3 .......I suppose what that's saying to me is the value bet shouldn't be backed unless itsxwithin 0.8 if top rated on my scale if you want it to win .....if your happy to go for a place then you can extend this range.....makes perfect sense if you think about it .....if your form ratings are accurate ...then if your value bet is 3rd rated 1.0 behind top rated then it's going to struggle to beat top rated under normal conditions regardless of value....you really need a combination of the 2 to be fully effective

Having a small debate with myself this morning ......yesterday I noticed that all horses within 0.8 of top rated provided nearly all the winners .....the ratings as,a form tool alone are really good.....but the winners are not  necessarily the value bets .....they are placing yes which corresponds to the value bet but the higher rated less value horses are winning  ... .. ....in tge above race that would mean the winner most likely narjes or violet lad ....as you can get 9/2 or 8/1  on both is that such a bad bet or any less value if they win if theres only 3 or 4 horses highly rated ????...making money is the name of the game after all ..I'll keep an eye on how they perform side by side with the value bets

With 3 NR's since yesterday, the shape of the 1.10 has altered some.
Genuine Approval    20.35        My odds 5/1      11/2    Some value
Zayriyan                  18.65        My odds 11/2      2/1    No value
Lady Of York           18.25        My odds  6/1      15/2   Some value
Socru                      17.25         My odds  6/1      15/2   Some value
Global Style            16.70         My odds 11/2      5/2   No value
Blairlogie is 11/1 and I have 13/2 and looks a bet! Lol!

@Wildgarden It's interesting isn't it. You could argue why bother to rate if you aren't going to act on the results! I'll have a dabble on Blairelogie too.

I've had a go at the 1.10 Lingfield:
Genuine Approval    20.35        My odds 13/2        9/2    No value
Zayriyan                  18.65        My odds   8/1         9/2    No value
Lady Of York           18.25        My odds  17/2       15/2   No value
Famous Dynasty     18.15        My odds  17/2        9/2    No value
Socru                      17.25         My odds   9/1        11/1   Value Bet.
Global Style            16.70         My odds   9/1        11/4   No value
Blairlogie is 14/1 and I have 10/1 but looks a dog too.
 

I've also done the 6.45 at Chelmsford to see how we compare
My top rated are ........
8 Dutugamunu
7 Channel Packet
4 Zefferino
The only horse that is a much different price to my odds is the rank outsider, Cheat at 50/1. I make him a 15/1 shot ....... but he's difficult to fancy !
The two market leaders are my top two rated and the bookies odds are within a point of mine, so nothing there for value
all the others except Cheat are shorter odds than my estimates

 
 
The top two rated are the market leaders and the bookies prices agree with mine
 

Weloof clearly went out way to far at 17.5 to come back in. Watching these as day goes on can help form some value imo.

Added a weighting to compensate re Win Win Power as above. New ratings:
Channel Packet  Rating  9.0    6/1 available at Bet 365. My odds 4/1
Win Win Power  Rating   6.7    4/1 available                   My odds 11/2  Still no value here.
Weloof                Rating  6.3    13/2 available                 My odds 6/1
Casina Di Notte  Rating  5.4    8/1 available                   My odds 7/1
 

Hi All
I've just rated the 18.45 Chelmsford tomorrow.
Channel Packet  Rating  9.0    6/1 available at Bet 365. My odds 4/1
Weloof                Rating  6.3    13/2 available                 My odds 6/1
Casina Di Notte  Rating  5.4    8/1 available                   My odds 7/1
My first try so don't follow!
Bookies fav Win Win Power Rated 4.3, My odds 9/1!
Edit: Win Win has not won yet so ratings a bit skewed. Has Hammer Hansen aboard so gets 3lb as well.

Added a weighting to compensate re Win Win Power as above. New ratings:
Channel Packet  Rating  9.0    6/1 available at Bet 365. My odds 4/1
Win Win Power  Rating   6.7    4/1 available                   My odds 11/2  Still no value here.
Weloof                Rating  6.3    13/2 available                 My odds 6/1
Casina Di Notte  Rating  5.4    8/1 available                   My odds 7/1
 

Just have a go ....if you find something doesnt work ....change the percentages to see if that helps .....or try diff criteria to each section ....its your own baby so have fun with it ?

Hi All
I've just rated the 18.45 Chelmsford tomorrow.
Channel Packet  Rating  9.0    6/1 available at Bet 365. My odds 4/1
Weloof                Rating  6.3    13/2 available                 My odds 6/1
Casina Di Notte  Rating  5.4    8/1 available                   My odds 7/1
My first try so don't follow!
Bookies fav Win Win Power Rated 4.3, My odds 9/1!
Edit: Win Win has not won yet so ratings a bit skewed. Has Hammer Hansen aboard so gets 3lb as well.

good luck this evening with decoy     looks a possibly wide open race from the quick glance ive done

congrats on the win!!!!!

No prizes for guessing which 2 OG horses I derive my username from ?
 

Hi guys. I have a share in Dutch Decoy with Owners Group. Runs tonight at Chelmsford 19.00. Joe Fanning takes the ride and would expect him to ride prominently (he usually does!). Trainer Mark Johnston reports all well and expects a place at least. GLIYF.

Hi guys. I have a share in Dutch Decoy with Owners Group. Runs tonight at Chelmsford 19.00. Joe Fanning takes the ride and would expect him to ride prominently (he usually does!). Trainer Mark Johnston reports all well and expects a place at least. GLIYF.

Hi guys. I have a share in Dutch Decoy with Owners Group. Runs tonight at Chelmsford 19.00. Joe Fanning takes the ride and would expect him to ride prominently (he usually does!). Trainer Mark Johnston reports all well and expects a place at least. GLIYF.