richard-westwood

Keep your head down and ride the rough patches ....Royal duchess wins ..boom .....130 pts returned ...Fab run 

Keep your head down and ride the rough patches ....Royal duchess wins ..boom .....130 pts returned ...Fab run 

430 Ayr
Royal duchess   98.77
Gold flash   98,74
Avenueofstars 98,73
Tricky little race ..only nine runners and five of them have good chances but royal duchess has some decent form at this distance and claimer could be a distinct advantage today ....Gold flash is 5/1 ..,avenue 8/1....Royal duchess is priced 20/1..so far to big for such a small race ....layoff a disadvantage 60 days but still good value 
Royal duchess 5 pts ew 20/1 bet365 

345newm
Dancing star   98.87
Show stealer  98.86
Flying pursuit 98.84
Very tricky race with Lots of improving types ....top two look evenly matched and 8/1 is a decent price on each ....ordinarily I'd just stick with those two but flying pursuit iis no forlorn hope and at 37.0 he's ridiculously overpriced so I'll keep him too 
Dancing star 3 pts win 8/1 will h
Show stealer 3 pts win 8/1 will h
Flying pursuit 2 pts win 37.0 betfair 

Britannia stakes 
Fighting temeraire 98.99
Zodiakos  98.96
Couple of value bets here in a wide open race ....fighting temeraire has been running well in defeat so 12/1 looks fair value and zoduakos could be anythin and shiwed a lot if promise on recent run so 40/1 looks ovetpriced 
Fighting temeraire 5 pts ew 12/1 wh
Zodiakos 5 pts ew 40/1 bet365 

Britannia stakes 
Fighting temeraire 98.99
Zodiakos  98.96
Couple of value bets here in a wide open race ....fighting temeraire has been running well in defeat so 12/1 looks fair value and zoduakos could be anythin and shiwed a lot if promise on recent run so 40/1 looks ovetpriced 
Fighting temeraire 5 pts ew 12/1 wh
Zodiakos 5 pts ew 40/1 bet365 

Final ratings for this race ...
Judicial  99,53
Kimbrella   99.52
Lexington Abby   99.49
Brando  99.47
Kimbrella looks to have just scraped in so can't ignore now after last week's unlucky near miss but this is a classy race judicial looks the perfect horse for this race and has better form than kimbrella but also Lexington Abby is within fighting range too and is no slouch in big races so at 16/1 is looking the value bet ew in the race but as the ew on kimbrella is poor I'll take wins on limb and Lexington to strengthen the team
Kimbrella 5 pts win 6/1 bet365
Lexington abby 5 pts win 16/1 bet365 

Fairy 235
Blairmayne  98.86
Pillar 98.85 
Mo wonder  98.82
China eyes  98,81
Interesting big hcap ....China eyes looks nicely treated but 254 day layoff a big negative so looked over ...likewise no wonder who has decent form but poor jockey so I'm overlooking which leaves the top two who ran against each other last time in which blairmayne won easily ....top rated could be ahead of the hcapper based on that but pillar is no forlorn hope ....gets a 5lb pull and drop in distance will suit so 11/1 price tag makes him the value bet of the race but I'll go tag team to be safe 
Blairmayne  4 Pts win 7/2bet365
Pillar 2 pts win 11/1 betfred 

Thought I'd got it .....fab run by architecture ...great run by fab...nice ew price though 

Off art 2nd at 6/1 !,.....unlucky ....
 

Diomed Stakes 
Verdict:
It’s a fair renewal and it’s difficult to get away from the chances of last years winner Arod. To be honest this doesn’t look any harder and showed his well being with a decent 4th at Ascot recently. I’m sure he will have come on for that and the only slight worry would be if the ground deteriorated further. Custom Cut needs to start showing his form from last year to get involved and the main danger may be Decorated Knight who won at Goodwood last time out and was just behind Arod at Ascot.
Selection:  Arod @ 3/1 Paddy Power
 
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I came out with 4 on my list: Syrian Pearl, Upstaging, Jaywalker and Pixellian but have left the two you have done based on running style, draw and because I think Upstaging is a quirky bugger (for all that he is young enough to prove that wrong). Either way the front of the market is full of over rated horses in my opinion so plenty of value left in the market! GL.

250 chest
Sound advice   98.85
Miracle of medina 98.83
Al Khan     98.80 
Al Khan could be an improver so warrants respect ....but he's up in class so there's better vslue in top two here who both have conditions to suit and look primed for good runs....at 11 and 12/1 they are decent value especially ew 
Sound advice 2pts ew 11/1 will h
Miracle of medina 2 pts ew 12/1 pp

630 gowran
Great wide open  98.77
The eyes have it  98.74
Espresso brasilero  98.70
Extremely open hcap ....ordinarily I'd probably avoid it but there's a lot of value in top two horses here ....the fab espresso brasilero has fair form and sets a decent standard to aim at but great wide open has conditions to suit and could run a big race also the eyes have it might prefer slightly faster ground but this is a poor race so He has a good level of form which if he holds he could run a good race ....at 14/1 and 25/1 they look fab value bets in a very open race 
Great wide open 5 pts ew14/1 bet365
The eyes have it  5 Pts ew 25/1 lads 

Crickey only just realised youve had first one too....nice price as well ......welcome to gowran !,....cmon you beautys !,

Great stuff Richard. 
Thought we were done when Expreso Brasileiro came but he found more to hang on. The low draw at Gowran is a big advantage.
Now lets see if we can get the treble up with Knockmaole Boy. He's halved in price so I'm hoping for a good run...

630 gowran
Great wide open  98.77
The eyes have it  98.74
Espresso brasilero  98.70
Extremely open hcap ....ordinarily I'd probably avoid it but there's a lot of value in top two horses here ....the fab espresso brasilero has fair form and sets a decent standard to aim at but great wide open has conditions to suit and could run a big race also the eyes have it might prefer slightly faster ground but this is a poor race so He has a good level of form which if he holds he could run a good race ....at 14/1 and 25/1 they look fab value bets in a very open race 
Great wide open 5 pts ew14/1 bet365
The eyes have it  5 Pts ew 25/1 lads 

Looked at all the at Gowran races except the last two. Nothing I like in the maidens. 6.00 Reckless Endeavor looks overpriced at 7/1. Mizaah won a maiden well but has to step up to catch up with a few of these who are also open to progress. The Moore Factor flopped on better ground the last time and has questions answer now in similar conditions. Not sure he's that good. Mulligatawny was 3/4L ahead of Reckless Endeavor last time but dropping back to 7f should suit my selection as he ran quite free that day.

In the 6.30 race Expreso Brasileiro is short enough with only one win under his belt although his last race is working out well. The next few in the betting have really bad draws which are really hard to win from at Gowran. I like Great Wide Open in stall 1 who looks like he can be competitive off 77 when the remainder look poor enough. Hopefully back over 7f he'll settle better.

I liked Granny May before being made a non runner last time but the price in the 7.00 race looks short enough. Beechmount has got a bad draw and they finished on top of each other in Storm Ranger's last race so Knockmaole Boy looks the value at 10/1. 3rd in a race working out well and might improve for the run. Looks like he should be better than 68 and nothing sticks out at the bigger prices.
The conditions event at 7.30 looks tough. Not a fan of what Shamreen has done on the track and Siamsaiocht doesn't look great either. Both have Group 1 entries though. Ballybacka Queen has some good pieces of form but is too inconsistent to recommend as a bet. No fancy here.

Duffield also has a newcomer at 16/1 who has to be a bet for me in the 2.00 race at Hamilton. Ben Haslam never seems to win 2 year old races and he saddles the favourite while a few of these don't look sprinters on paper and might be better in time as a result. Might been in with a squeak here.
6.00 Gowran Park - Reckless Endeavor @ 7/1 Bet365
6.30 Gowran Park - Great Wide Open @ 14/1 Bet365
7.00 Gowran Park - Knockmaole Boy @ 10/1 Betfair
2.00 Hamilton - Uncle Charlie @ 16/1 Betfair
 

Fab...feels like your there ....

First one was a let down but kimbrella does the business ....around 105pts returned ...nice when a plan comes together 

Slightly different tact on this one ...we are all aware of the draw bias at Chester so as this is 5f I'll rate just the bottom 6 draws as there's around an 83% probability the winner will come from one of those draws ......the ratings come out as follows 345 chester
Stall 
1  99.12
2 99.16
3 99.25
4 99.02
5 99.06
6 99.19
Looks as though this is between kimbrella and Avon breeze and as the statistics favour and improve the closer to the rail you get then it's obvious the horse I want to be on is Nicholls ..kimbrella ...he was behind the fav last time but I think that was a warm up and he's much better than that and I'd be hopeful he can turn that form around with perfect conditions.....bookies aren't taking any chances only offering best price 7/1 at the mo ...I had thought he would be bigger but still a good bet so lets see what happens ..
Kimbrella 10pts ew 7/1 will hill 
 

Exactly the same ....let's hope he does himself justice now!

We must be reading from the same page;
I did this earlier;
 
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How unlucky is that!,,,,......2nd and 3rd ....gutted in a way but fab ew returns probably around 70 pts but oh so near 

To be honest I don't normally take a lot of notice of the Punchestown Festival........it comes after Cheltenham and Aintree and seems like a bit of an afterthought
But I still haven't got that interested in the Flat this year yet so think I'll watch it this year........well make sure I catch the Grade One races
There's some cracking races !