richard-westwood Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 (edited) Minding 99.56 Ballydoyle 99.50 Turret rocks 99.46 Fireglow 99.46 Architecture 99.44 The black princess 99.42 Ballydoyle are going to war on the oak but its debatable whether they have such a strong hand this year .....minding has looked good over a mile but had a tough race last time and that isn't an ideal prep for a full on 12f race 12 days later so that leaves her vulnerable and no value at all in the price .....ballydoyle similarly hasn't shown 12f is going to be perfect ....so no value in that price either ...same can be said about turret rocks no value in the price at all so for me that leaves the value door wide open and there's got to be something that could upset the cart and sneak in ......got to worth a speculative bet to make the race more interesting ......firstly fireglow doesn't look the ideal horse for the derby but if you presume the top two are going to flounder then her run behind so di mar starts to look fairly decent and with a bit of improvement she could easily sneak in ....priced at 56.0 thats far too big for starters .....architecture is an interesting horse ....looks a derby type and ran well in a trial and recent spin on the course has impressed connections so it would silly to ignore her claims with perfect conditions at 20/1 .....and lastly the black princess represents j gosden who has a fine record in this race so with a little improvement I could see her stealing a place potentially at huge odds ....all hinges on the performances of the top 2-3 but the doors wide open so step forward the challengers ! Architecture 3 pts ew 20/1 Boyles Fireglow 2pts win 56.0 betfair The black princess 2 pts ew 66/1 st James Edited May 26, 2016 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 29, 2016 Author Share Posted May 29, 2016 (edited) Disappointing only 11 running now so left to architecture to upset the favs ...but at 12/1 now at least the price is looking good Edited May 29, 2016 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Verdict An intriguing renewal and a strong favourite in Minding that will be a popular choice for many. She looked very good at Newmarket and I was surprised when she was beaten next time out. If she stays she probably wins but at the prices I prefer to look elsewhere for some value. I’m tempted to go for the late entrant Skiffle, its amazing that five weeks ago she had never been seen in public and now here she is lining up in one of the most prestigious races for fillies and I do like these lightly raced progressive types. Selection: Skiffle EW @ 7/1 Paddy Power Full Preview Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 Diomed Stakes Verdict: It’s a fair renewal and it’s difficult to get away from the chances of last years winner Arod. To be honest this doesn’t look any harder and showed his well being with a decent 4th at Ascot recently. I’m sure he will have come on for that and the only slight worry would be if the ground deteriorated further. Custom Cut needs to start showing his form from last year to get involved and the main danger may be Decorated Knight who won at Goodwood last time out and was just behind Arod at Ascot. Selection: Arod @ 3/1 Paddy Power Full Preview richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 I'd say Minding is a fair price for this. The market has reacted as if her Irish 1000 Guineas defeat was a disappointment but I prefer to take a different view with the solid looking Now Or Never who goes in the ground 10L back in third. I think Jet Setting is actually very good particularly in soft ground and Minding put in a very good performance. She's a fair bit clear of the rest on figures and I think the bookies will offer some very nice prices on her winning this Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 1, 2016 Author Share Posted June 1, 2016 Prelim ratings for diomed Arod 99.36 Decorated knight 99.31 Custom cut 99.27 Arod should strip fitter now and could be just too good for these on the day ....only danger I can see is decorated knight who will be staying on at the end so if the ground were to come up on the soft side could cause an upset but I think arod looks a strong selection ....I'll take the 5/2 for now and i have a similar rating for examiner in the mile so I'm just waiting for prices ...will probably have a big race double for a bit of fun day 1 once prices come online Arod 8 Pts win 5/2 Stan James (2 pts saver decorated knight 8/1 bet365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 2, 2016 Author Share Posted June 2, 2016 345 esp Examiner 99,27 Dutch uncle 99,23 Spring offensive 99.20 Not much between top two here ....both are in form and have conditions to suit ...I think examiners experience could be the deciding factor but it will a close one so I was going ew top one but percentage call is to tag team Examiner 5 pts win 7/1 p.p Dutch uncle 5 pts win 5/1 pp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 2, 2016 Author Share Posted June 2, 2016 235 eps Felix de Vega 99,12 Dark red 99.12 Gold Prince 99.04 Nothing between top 2 here and they are a bit clear of the rest ....I don't think the betting justifies dark reds 11/4 favouritism as there's nothing in it making the ew on Felix de Vega at 6/1 a very good value bet but percentage call is tag team Felix de Vega 3 Pts win 6/1 will hill Dark red 7 Pts win 11/4 pp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 2, 2016 Author Share Posted June 2, 2016 550 eps Stamp hill 98.88 Kings pavilion 98.82 Storm rising 98.80 Stamp hill looks a decent bet here and rrpresents mr fahey whowill have his shareof winners....im surprised to see him offered at7/1which looks fab ew valueso ill take that Stamp hill 5 Pts ew 7/1 sky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 Three For Friday 3.35 Catterick: Owaseyf @ 5/4 Coral 2.50 Market Rasen: Manhattan Swing @ 5/2 BetVic 2.35 Epsom: Master Of Finance EW @ 15/2 Betway Full Preview Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 Eps 2.00 - Legendary Lunch - win at 10/3 bog betvictor The Woodcote - listed 6F for 2yo Cracking opening to the meeting with a listed race for 2yo which has attracted 6 winners (and one unraced horse, who's 125/1) Of the 6 main runners 4 of them are currently joint favourites My selection comes from the Hannon yard and was beaten last time by one of his rivals today, Johnston's runner Sea of Snow. However he 'scoped dirty and had wrong blood' after that race and there's a good chance he can reverse places if he's OK now. On debut he'd looked a classy type Main dangers might be the two once-raced winners both of whom could be very good. I think Tibr coud be the main danger as the form of his win has worked out better.......Hyperfocus didn't beat very much ...................................................................................................... After a bit of a disastrous few months where I lost most of my betting bank I've been gradually rebuilding by backing two horses in small field races.......as long as the shortest priced one is 7/4 or bigger and I can reasonably rule out one of the other 3 favourites.........and I've been having some success. Slow but steady ! I haven't decided yet whether to play in this race (one of my other rules is to try and stick to races with older horses who are less likely to be unknown quantities)........and I can't decide between Hyperfocus and Tibr as my second bet So I'll probably leave my money in the pot BUT.........at the moment I'm leaning towards Legendary Lunch and Tibr, both currently available at 10/3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Epsom Preview I might be mad but I've gone for 3 bets in the Oaks. 97% book in the win market and 99% in the without last night with Bet365 going 1/4 odds 3 places. First of all I think the Irish Guineas form is really strong with Now Or Never 10L back in 3rd and there has been an overreaction to Minding's defeat. All the sectional analysts are saying she was unlucky and she was staying on really strongly over a soft mile at the Curragh which Aidan always says is a test like 10f. 3 of Aidan's 5 Oaks winners ran in the Irish 1000 Guineas before the race so I don't think running in that race is a negative and 6/4 looks a bit of a gift to me. Harlequeen is the 4th horse on official ratings and RPRs and is overpriced in the w/o market at 12/1 especially e/w with 1/4 odds available. She wasn't suited by the slow gallop behind So Mi Dar when she ran keen before staying on strongly. Stepping up in trip should suit and hopefully a Ballydoyle runner will go quick enough to keep Minding settled. Diamonds Pour Moi also looks big in the without market as she's completely unexposed, will definitely stay and has the exact same profile as Look Here who won for Ralph Beckett a few years ago. Think those two have a good chance of beating some of the others home including Turret Rocks who I think needs quick ground. He may not run if the ground doesn't dry out but Arod looks a big price in the 3.10. He improved massively on his two previous reappearances in years gone by and was 2nd to The Grey Gatsby on good to soft before. He's just miles better than the rest of these on form and the 3/1 looks generous. In the opening race on the card the Woodcote, Tibr was really impressive in a race working out well and should come on for that trained being trained by Ed Dunlop. That form looks the best in the race and he should be shorter than 7/2. 2.00 - Tibr @ 7/2 Ladbrokes 3.10 - Arod @ 3/1 Betfair 4.30 - Minding @ 6/4 William Hill 4.30 - Harlequeen w/o Minding e/w @ 12/1 Bet365 4.30 - Diamonds Pour Moi w/o Minding e/w @ 14/1 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 3, 2016 Author Share Posted June 3, 2016 On 01/06/2016, 15:53:12, richard-westwood said: Prelim ratings for diomed Arod 99.36 Decorated knight 99.31 Custom cut 99.27 Arod should strip fitter now and could be just too good for these on the day ....only danger I can see is decorated knight who will be staying on at the end so if the ground were to come up on the soft side could cause an upset but I think arod looks a strong selection ....I'll take the 5/2 for now and i have a similar rating for examiner in the mile so I'm just waiting for prices ...will probably have a big race double for a bit of fun day 1 once prices come online Arod 8 Pts win 5/2 Stan James (2 pts saver decorated knight 8/1 bet365) Arod non runner ....don't fancy my chances today now ...ground has gone very soft ...bordering heavy so form is already going out window ...disappointing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 3, 2016 Author Share Posted June 3, 2016 On 02/06/2016, 11:39:26, richard-westwood said: 345 esp Examiner 99,27 Dutch uncle 99,23 Spring offensive 99.20 Not much between top two here ....both are in form and have conditions to suit ...I think examiners experience could be the deciding factor but it will a close one so I was going ew top one but percentage call is to tag team Examiner 5 pts win 7/1 p.p Dutch uncle 5 pts win 5/1 pp I'll take that on a bad day ....examiner wins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Be interesting to see how the Oaks turns out tactically........from the earlier races it seems that the place not to be is up against the far rail and coming wide looks the best option. I don't think this will suit front runners Wouldn't worry too much if your horse is near the back turning in......the ones at the front will almost certainly be against the rail In that regard my horse who won the first probably ran better than the bare result as he led for the last couple of furlongs having run up the inside and stuck to the rail..........the horse who nearly caught him on the line came wide round the field Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 3, 2016 Author Share Posted June 3, 2016 On 26/05/2016, 13:32:25, richard-westwood said: Minding 99.56 Ballydoyle 99.50 Turret rocks 99.46 Fireglow 99.46 Architecture 99.44 The black princess 99.42 Ballydoyle are going to war on the oak but its debatable whether they have such a strong hand this year .....minding has looked good over a mile but had a tough race last time and that isn't an ideal prep for a full on 12f race 12 days later so that leaves her vulnerable and no value at all in the price .....ballydoyle similarly hasn't shown 12f is going to be perfect ....so no value in that price either ...same can be said about turret rocks no value in the price at all so for me that leaves the value door wide open and there's got to be something that could upset the cart and sneak in ......got to worth a speculative bet to make the race more interesting ......firstly fireglow doesn't look the ideal horse for the derby but if you presume the top two are going to flounder then her run behind so di mar starts to look fairly decent and with a bit of improvement she could easily sneak in ....priced at 56.0 thats far too big for starters .....architecture is an interesting horse ....looks a derby type and ran well in a trial and recent spin on the course has impressed connections so it would silly to ignore her claims with perfect conditions at 20/1 .....and lastly the black princess represents j gosden who has a fine record in this race so with a little improvement I could see her stealing a place potentially at huge odds ....all hinges on the performances of the top 2-3 but the doors wide open so step forward the challengers ! Architecture 3 pts ew 20/1 Boyles Fireglow 2pts win 56.0 betfair The black princess 2 pts ew 66/1 st James Thought I'd got it .....fab run by architecture ...great run by fab...nice ew price though arsenalfh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 What a performance by Minding. The way she quickened through that gap after completely being blocked off was seriously impressive. Harlequeen placing to get some e/w money which was nice too. Minding looks every bit as good over 12f as a mile. Exceptional filly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 yeah, brilliant in view of my previous post I was a bit worried that Ryan was looking at going up the inside when he got blocked in........fortunately he came out ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 3, 2016 Author Share Posted June 3, 2016 On 02/06/2016, 12:31:31, richard-westwood said: 550 eps Stamp hill 98.88 Kings pavilion 98.82 Storm rising 98.80 Stamp hill looks a decent bet here and rrpresents mr fahey whowill have his shareof winners....im surprised to see him offered at7/1which looks fab ew valueso ill take that Stamp hill 5 Pts ew 7/1 sky 2nd ....unlucky ....should be thankful for anything as the grounds altered so drastically.....about 33 pts profit on the day overall so well happy...can't complain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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