richard-westwood

Super sprint 
It ain't two. 317 0.22
Vingaard. 305 0.38 
Kaadi. 294.  0.52
Do it now 290 0.96 
Top rated has a big form rating ....but Ew value with 4 places  is  DO IT NOW 14/1 ...is fourth on form but rapidly improving and could be better than rating 
1pt Ew 
 

Irish oaks 
Port fairy  358 0.49 
Lava stream 348 0.87 
War chimes. 343. 0.78 
You got to me. 340 1.62 
LAVA STREAM looks the overall Ew value bet at 10/1 but with 4 places on offer YOU GOT TO ME has massive  Ew value at 20/1 so also warrants a Ew bet 
1pt Ew both 

Yes I've scrapped quite a few races due to not worth a bet ....say when all top 4 are below 0.50 ...frustrating when you've spent time rating but if that's what's needed to find value bets ...so be it 

Yes I've scrapped quite a few races due to not worth a bet ....say when all top 4 are below 0.50 ...frustrating when you've spent time rating but if that's what's needed to find value bets ...so be it 

Irish oaks 
Port fairy  358 0.49 
Lava stream 348 0.87 
War chimes. 343. 0.78 
You got to me. 340 1.62 
LAVA STREAM looks the overall Ew value bet at 10/1 but with 4 places on offer YOU GOT TO ME has massive  Ew value at 20/1 so also warrants a Ew bet 
1pt Ew both 

# Horse Odds Rating Val 1 Spangled Mac 12 104.59 100.00 2 Tiriac 4.5 102.53 20.69 3 Magical Spirit 21 102.46 93.79 4 Manila Scouse 8.5 101.09 16.82 5 Jordan Electrics 6.5 99.80   6 Rocket Rodney 9.5 99.36   7 Silky Wilkie 15 98.41   8 Raatea 11 97.81   9 Londoner 9 97.33   10 First Folio 8.5 96.62   I'll back the top two on the value rating and the top 3 in forecasts. 

I see no value in this race whatsoever and unless the market changes markedly its one to leave alone for me.  If forced i would have to go with silkie wilkie. 12/1

I've sat down and really given it a lot of thought .....you can rate a race and find value every time but if that doesn't go hand in hand with the horses actual chance to win then you'll always be running for a place and that's what seemed to be happening in my results ......so what I'm going to do is post the top 4 fully  form rated .....then back the best value (nearest to their true price ) .....that way I should be getting form and value rather than just backing a value horse 
635 ham 
Tiriac. 303  edge 0.47 
Spangled Mac. 299 0.90
Manila Scouse. 292 0.82 
First folio. 287 0.78 
Fav is poor value .....the horse that seems to stand out is SPANGLED MAC who at 15/2 is almost his expected price so that's the bet Ew ..negative is he's had a long layoff (8monthes)...but that's offset by 5lb claim so I'll still play it ....1 PT Ew ...
Could make a case for Manila Scouse Ew but I'm trying to find a method for a  very strong "placed" horse whilst keeping outlay down to maximise profits 
That feels a better method and is still getting value ....

I've sat down and really given it a lot of thought .....you can rate a race and find value every time but if that doesn't go hand in hand with the horses actual chance to win then you'll always be running for a place and that's what seemed to be happening in my results ......so what I'm going to do is post the top 4 fully  form rated .....then back the best value (nearest to their true price ) .....that way I should be getting form and value rather than just backing a value horse 
635 ham 
Tiriac. 303  edge 0.47 
Spangled Mac. 299 0.90
Manila Scouse. 292 0.82 
First folio. 287 0.78 
Fav is poor value .....the horse that seems to stand out is SPANGLED MAC who at 15/2 is almost his expected price so that's the bet Ew ..negative is he's had a long layoff (8monthes)...but that's offset by 5lb claim so I'll still play it ....1 PT Ew ...
Could make a case for Manila Scouse Ew but I'm trying to find a method for a  very strong "placed" horse whilst keeping outlay down to maximise profits 
That feels a better method and is still getting value ....

I've sat down and really given it a lot of thought .....you can rate a race and find value every time but if that doesn't go hand in hand with the horses actual chance to win then you'll always be running for a place and that's what seemed to be happening in my results ......so what I'm going to do is post the top 4 fully  form rated .....then back the best value (nearest to their true price ) .....that way I should be getting form and value rather than just backing a value horse 
635 ham 
Tiriac. 303  edge 0.47 
Spangled Mac. 299 0.90
Manila Scouse. 292 0.82 
First folio. 287 0.78 
Fav is poor value .....the horse that seems to stand out is SPANGLED MAC who at 15/2 is almost his expected price so that's the bet Ew ..negative is he's had a long layoff (8monthes)...but that's offset by 5lb claim so I'll still play it ....1 PT Ew ...
Could make a case for Manila Scouse Ew but I'm trying to find a method for a  very strong "placed" horse whilst keeping outlay down to maximise profits 
That feels a better method and is still getting value ....

Yes exactly my thoughts ...the formula was too ...light .....so I've extended it to 8 ......I can open all the things I need in three diff windows and only takes 15 mins to rate a race so it isn't too bad either 

Spangled has run well after a layoff before - close 4th at Royal Ascot last year following a 4 month break. I’d be more concerned about his draw tonight, personally. 

I've sat down and really given it a lot of thought .....you can rate a race and find value every time but if that doesn't go hand in hand with the horses actual chance to win then you'll always be running for a place and that's what seemed to be happening in my results ......so what I'm going to do is post the top 4 fully  form rated .....then back the best value (nearest to their true price ) .....that way I should be getting form and value rather than just backing a value horse 
635 ham 
Tiriac. 303  edge 0.47 
Spangled Mac. 299 0.90
Manila Scouse. 292 0.82 
First folio. 287 0.78 
Fav is poor value .....the horse that seems to stand out is SPANGLED MAC who at 15/2 is almost his expected price so that's the bet Ew ..negative is he's had a long layoff (8monthes)...but that's offset by 5lb claim so I'll still play it ....1 PT Ew ...
Could make a case for Manila Scouse Ew but I'm trying to find a method for a  very strong "placed" horse whilst keeping outlay down to maximise profits 
That feels a better method and is still getting value ....

I've sat down and really given it a lot of thought .....you can rate a race and find value every time but if that doesn't go hand in hand with the horses actual chance to win then you'll always be running for a place and that's what seemed to be happening in my results ......so what I'm going to do is post the top 4 fully  form rated .....then back the best value (nearest to their true price ) .....that way I should be getting form and value rather than just backing a value horse 
635 ham 
Tiriac. 303  edge 0.47 
Spangled Mac. 299 0.90
Manila Scouse. 292 0.82 
First folio. 287 0.78 
Fav is poor value .....the horse that seems to stand out is SPANGLED MAC who at 15/2 is almost his expected price so that's the bet Ew ..negative is he's had a long layoff (8monthes)...but that's offset by 5lb claim so I'll still play it ....1 PT Ew ...
Could make a case for Manila Scouse Ew but I'm trying to find a method for a  very strong "placed" horse whilst keeping outlay down to maximise profits 
That feels a better method and is still getting value ....

I've sat down and really given it a lot of thought .....you can rate a race and find value every time but if that doesn't go hand in hand with the horses actual chance to win then you'll always be running for a place and that's what seemed to be happening in my results ......so what I'm going to do is post the top 4 fully  form rated .....then back the best value (nearest to their true price ) .....that way I should be getting form and value rather than just backing a value horse 
635 ham 
Tiriac. 303  edge 0.47 
Spangled Mac. 299 0.90
Manila Scouse. 292 0.82 
First folio. 287 0.78 
Fav is poor value .....the horse that seems to stand out is SPANGLED MAC who at 15/2 is almost his expected price so that's the bet Ew ..negative is he's had a long layoff (8monthes)...but that's offset by 5lb claim so I'll still play it ....1 PT Ew ...
Could make a case for Manila Scouse Ew but I'm trying to find a method for a  very strong "placed" horse whilst keeping outlay down to maximise profits 
That feels a better method and is still getting value ....

405 chep
Just the one qualifier ULTRAMARINE ....11.88% EDGE 1.66 14/1
1PT EW 

Dream of mischief finished 3rd and little boy 4th ...so the good value horses still ran well but my formula is very basic ....I really wanted to make sure the formula worked but now I know the maths is correct and working I can expand the formula to include rprs ...speed and a whole load of other stuff and hopefully that should give a lot more strength to the rating now ......I've reprogrammed it with all the new information so I look forward to the next few races ....still very promising ......just needs tweaking a touch 
Re rating the 805 with new settings gave top 4 overall ratings 
8 344
7 341
4 339
2 335
And they've finished 1st 2nd 4th so hopefully now I've tuned the form part the value part will follow 

Yes exactly my thoughts ...the formula was too ...light .....so I've extended it to 8 ......I can open all the things I need in three diff windows and only takes 15 mins to rate a race so it isn't too bad either 

Dream of mischief finished 3rd and little boy 4th ...so the good value horses still ran well but my formula is very basic ....I really wanted to make sure the formula worked but now I know the maths is correct and working I can expand the formula to include rprs ...speed and a whole load of other stuff and hopefully that should give a lot more strength to the rating now ......I've reprogrammed it with all the new information so I look forward to the next few races ....still very promising ......just needs tweaking a touch 
Re rating the 805 with new settings gave top 4 overall ratings 
8 344
7 341
4 339
2 335
And they've finished 1st 2nd 4th so hopefully now I've tuned the form part the value part will follow 

I'll just take solace in the decision to call the top two rated "too short" with them finishing 2nd and 3rd. I'd rather lose taking a tilt at a decent price than backing a more obvious short priced selection.

Absolutely crap start ....was 8 lengths off the pace and has finished 4th somehow ....crap ride ....too much to do ....much better than that 

@Villa Chris 
@harry_rag
I've rated that 805 for interest 
Hodler. 12% edge 2.76 avail 22/1
Little boy blue.  13.55%. Edge 2.43 avail 18/1
Dream of mischief 11%. Edge 1.23 avail 11/1
Miss inform tissue 8.6 avail 2.0 poor 
Guteau. Tissue 7.6. Avail 6.0 poor 
Massive edges on hodler and little boy blue so Ew bets ....not sure whether to include dream .....although all 3 qualify 
We must be getting it right cos we are getting roughly the same horses 

Quick deeper dive on the Chepstow Epsom race. 
Paws for thought, Hodler and Miami Thunder the only horses unanimously rated as above average when ranked by lowest rating. Hodler and Thunder 2nd and 3rd when ranked by highest rating with Guiteau taking top spot and Miss Information in 4th. No surprise if either of the top two in the betting win it but as I've got nothing to go on barring my half-arsed ratings I'm happy with the 3 at bigger prices.

@Villa Chris 
@harry_rag
I've rated that 805 for interest 
Hodler. 12% edge 2.76 avail 22/1
Little boy blue.  13.55%. Edge 2.43 avail 18/1
Dream of mischief 11%. Edge 1.23 avail 11/1
Miss inform tissue 8.6 avail 2.0 poor 
Guteau. Tissue 7.6. Avail 6.0 poor 
Massive edges on hodler and little boy blue so Ew bets ....not sure whether to include dream .....although all 3 qualify 
We must be getting it right cos we are getting roughly the same horses 

@Villa Chris 
@harry_rag
I've rated that 805 for interest 
Hodler. 12% edge 2.76 avail 22/1
Little boy blue.  13.55%. Edge 2.43 avail 18/1
Dream of mischief 11%. Edge 1.23 avail 11/1
Miss inform tissue 8.6 avail 2.0 poor 
Guteau. Tissue 7.6. Avail 6.0 poor 
Massive edges on hodler and little boy blue so Ew bets ....not sure whether to include dream .....although all 3 qualify 
We must be getting it right cos we are getting roughly the same horses