richard-westwood

Thought I'd got it .....fab run by architecture ...great run by fab...nice ew price though 

Off art 2nd at 6/1 !,.....unlucky ....
 

Diomed Stakes 
Verdict:
It’s a fair renewal and it’s difficult to get away from the chances of last years winner Arod. To be honest this doesn’t look any harder and showed his well being with a decent 4th at Ascot recently. I’m sure he will have come on for that and the only slight worry would be if the ground deteriorated further. Custom Cut needs to start showing his form from last year to get involved and the main danger may be Decorated Knight who won at Goodwood last time out and was just behind Arod at Ascot.
Selection:  Arod @ 3/1 Paddy Power
 
Full Preview
 

I came out with 4 on my list: Syrian Pearl, Upstaging, Jaywalker and Pixellian but have left the two you have done based on running style, draw and because I think Upstaging is a quirky bugger (for all that he is young enough to prove that wrong). Either way the front of the market is full of over rated horses in my opinion so plenty of value left in the market! GL.

250 chest
Sound advice   98.85
Miracle of medina 98.83
Al Khan     98.80 
Al Khan could be an improver so warrants respect ....but he's up in class so there's better vslue in top two here who both have conditions to suit and look primed for good runs....at 11 and 12/1 they are decent value especially ew 
Sound advice 2pts ew 11/1 will h
Miracle of medina 2 pts ew 12/1 pp

630 gowran
Great wide open  98.77
The eyes have it  98.74
Espresso brasilero  98.70
Extremely open hcap ....ordinarily I'd probably avoid it but there's a lot of value in top two horses here ....the fab espresso brasilero has fair form and sets a decent standard to aim at but great wide open has conditions to suit and could run a big race also the eyes have it might prefer slightly faster ground but this is a poor race so He has a good level of form which if he holds he could run a good race ....at 14/1 and 25/1 they look fab value bets in a very open race 
Great wide open 5 pts ew14/1 bet365
The eyes have it  5 Pts ew 25/1 lads 

Crickey only just realised youve had first one too....nice price as well ......welcome to gowran !,....cmon you beautys !,

Great stuff Richard. 
Thought we were done when Expreso Brasileiro came but he found more to hang on. The low draw at Gowran is a big advantage.
Now lets see if we can get the treble up with Knockmaole Boy. He's halved in price so I'm hoping for a good run...

630 gowran
Great wide open  98.77
The eyes have it  98.74
Espresso brasilero  98.70
Extremely open hcap ....ordinarily I'd probably avoid it but there's a lot of value in top two horses here ....the fab espresso brasilero has fair form and sets a decent standard to aim at but great wide open has conditions to suit and could run a big race also the eyes have it might prefer slightly faster ground but this is a poor race so He has a good level of form which if he holds he could run a good race ....at 14/1 and 25/1 they look fab value bets in a very open race 
Great wide open 5 pts ew14/1 bet365
The eyes have it  5 Pts ew 25/1 lads 

Looked at all the at Gowran races except the last two. Nothing I like in the maidens. 6.00 Reckless Endeavor looks overpriced at 7/1. Mizaah won a maiden well but has to step up to catch up with a few of these who are also open to progress. The Moore Factor flopped on better ground the last time and has questions answer now in similar conditions. Not sure he's that good. Mulligatawny was 3/4L ahead of Reckless Endeavor last time but dropping back to 7f should suit my selection as he ran quite free that day.

In the 6.30 race Expreso Brasileiro is short enough with only one win under his belt although his last race is working out well. The next few in the betting have really bad draws which are really hard to win from at Gowran. I like Great Wide Open in stall 1 who looks like he can be competitive off 77 when the remainder look poor enough. Hopefully back over 7f he'll settle better.

I liked Granny May before being made a non runner last time but the price in the 7.00 race looks short enough. Beechmount has got a bad draw and they finished on top of each other in Storm Ranger's last race so Knockmaole Boy looks the value at 10/1. 3rd in a race working out well and might improve for the run. Looks like he should be better than 68 and nothing sticks out at the bigger prices.
The conditions event at 7.30 looks tough. Not a fan of what Shamreen has done on the track and Siamsaiocht doesn't look great either. Both have Group 1 entries though. Ballybacka Queen has some good pieces of form but is too inconsistent to recommend as a bet. No fancy here.

Duffield also has a newcomer at 16/1 who has to be a bet for me in the 2.00 race at Hamilton. Ben Haslam never seems to win 2 year old races and he saddles the favourite while a few of these don't look sprinters on paper and might be better in time as a result. Might been in with a squeak here.
6.00 Gowran Park - Reckless Endeavor @ 7/1 Bet365
6.30 Gowran Park - Great Wide Open @ 14/1 Bet365
7.00 Gowran Park - Knockmaole Boy @ 10/1 Betfair
2.00 Hamilton - Uncle Charlie @ 16/1 Betfair
 

Fab...feels like your there ....

First one was a let down but kimbrella does the business ....around 105pts returned ...nice when a plan comes together 

Slightly different tact on this one ...we are all aware of the draw bias at Chester so as this is 5f I'll rate just the bottom 6 draws as there's around an 83% probability the winner will come from one of those draws ......the ratings come out as follows 345 chester
Stall 
1  99.12
2 99.16
3 99.25
4 99.02
5 99.06
6 99.19
Looks as though this is between kimbrella and Avon breeze and as the statistics favour and improve the closer to the rail you get then it's obvious the horse I want to be on is Nicholls ..kimbrella ...he was behind the fav last time but I think that was a warm up and he's much better than that and I'd be hopeful he can turn that form around with perfect conditions.....bookies aren't taking any chances only offering best price 7/1 at the mo ...I had thought he would be bigger but still a good bet so lets see what happens ..
Kimbrella 10pts ew 7/1 will hill 
 

Exactly the same ....let's hope he does himself justice now!

We must be reading from the same page;
I did this earlier;
 
Full Preview
 
 

How unlucky is that!,,,,......2nd and 3rd ....gutted in a way but fab ew returns probably around 70 pts but oh so near 

To be honest I don't normally take a lot of notice of the Punchestown Festival........it comes after Cheltenham and Aintree and seems like a bit of an afterthought
But I still haven't got that interested in the Flat this year yet so think I'll watch it this year........well make sure I catch the Grade One races
There's some cracking races !

Some massive moves for the Lyons horses today with Psychedelic Funk and Elusive Heights winning at 7/2. Couldn't have gone much better today!

Gone for a few favourites tomorrow but am liking Seeyouatmidnight and Stenrubin. Hope my heart is not ruling my head.
 
https://racingahoy.wordpress.com/2016/04/15/the-only-way-is-essex/

Well pleased with that ...yesterday only 4 qualified and accesion joint 3rd rated won 25/1 ......today 14/1 3rd from 2 picks ....and 20/1 3rd from one pick ....definately no fluke about that !!!!...very pleased ....dont forget its just been designed to pick horses that are mispriced so its obviously working perfectly 

Well pleased with that ...yesterday only 4 qualified and accesion joint 3rd rated won 25/1 ......today 14/1 3rd from 2 picks ....and 20/1 3rd from one pick ....definately no fluke about that !!!!...very pleased ....dont forget its just been designed to pick horses that are mispriced so its obviously working perfectly 

Well done mate. You seem to have found a winning formula there.

Captain brown 18/1 3rd with only a length separating first three home .... Very happy with that and will get the 18/1 ew price too...uriah heep was about 5th  

Just continue in value testing .....
235 Ayr results 
Captain Brown  +5 good 14/1
uriah heep +6 good 25/1 
Clan legend  +2 FAIR 5/1
Clan legend is well fancied and in sparkling form but effectively has been raised 14 lbs so life will be tougher ...,,I'll try ew bets on other two ...minimum stakes 
Captain Brown1pt ew 14/1 bet365
uriah heep 1 pt we 25/1 bet365
 
 

515 Ayr value results 
Victor Hugo  +5 good 20/1
Quel elite +3 FAIR 
Victor Hugo 1pt ew 20/1 bet365