richard-westwood

Time to put my money where my mouth is and see whether its actually possible to make money in racing consistently ....Time to get serious and only back when all ratings point to a win and if the odds warrant a bet is worth the potential risk ....I've set up a 500 pt bank real bank and given myself a 12 month period to prove yes or no in public  .....no more whimsical bets or high risk outsiders unless they warrant it ....this is serious time to prove once and for all it can be done .....yes there will be the inevitable losers which may be long at times as with any but stick at it and we shall see I think its possible and if I focus it will evolve  .....I'll scan the bookies for best value at all times and try to get maximum value every time preferably the night before if possible when bookies early prices come online .....bets will be to 5pt win  stakes at all times ......Time to rock and roll starting with tomorrow's racing 
StArting bank  500 Pts 
First bets to follow once prices come online 
 

Good luck Richard will be following with interest. 

410 Pont 
Walton street 5pts win bet365 9/4 
Weak race and interesting that godolphin send their newcomer here ...looks a good pedigree and I'd imagine they have high hopes of a good run ...9/4 just about a value price absolute minimum for me to play so only just sneaks in 

Good luck mate

3rd @ 7-1

430 ham 
Another wise kid  88.86
Funding deficit  88.85
Munfallet   88.83
Munfallet should make a bold bid to win this today with conditions to suit but with the ratings so close and he's priced at 7/2 there's better value in the6/1 and 18/1 in the the top two here so ill take the fav on and hope for a bit of luck in running 
Another wise kid 10pts win 6/1 will h
Funding deficit 5pts ew 18/1 paddyp

Good luck today
4.30 Hamilton-Another Wise Kid
Each Way @ 6-1  Paddy Power
Well in here if near best
 

Top rated another 85 points returned ..nice bring it on 

Rockingham handicap 
Celebration  99.12
Tithonus    99.11
Sors    99.08 
Wide open race with sors returning for another shot at winning this again and in good heart he warrants respect rated high  but top two here hold a lot of cards ...good recent form perfect conditions and both are drawn near to the rails high and low respectively which is another big advantage so I'm expecting big runs today 
Celebration 10pts win 13/2 will hill 
Tithonus   10pts win 25/1 bet365

260 Pts? ...nice doing business ! Booom 

260 Pts? ...nice doing business ! Booom 

310 muss Saturday scottish sprint cup
Duke of firenxze  336
Mirza    333
Caspian Prince  327
Wide open race but top 2 here look really interesting ....Duke of firenze has shown some classy form in sprints and no surprise to see him make a bold bid here ..13/2 looks decent value ......value bet of  the race is definately mirza who also has some classy form on the clock but is being offered at an incredible 25/1 with will hill ..,silly price ..top two for me 
Duke of firenxze 5pts ew 13/2 sky bet
Mirza 5pts ew 25/1 will hill 
 

Confessional 3rd ..Stake acclaim 2nd ...close race good runs ...+12 pts returned 

For a long time I've truly believed most things in life can be explained with maths .....Horse racing is no exception although there is a big luck factor involved in racing too which cannot be gauged ....I love speed ratings but they are very difficult and time consuming so when times short you can't rate anything ...like me at the moment ....but handicaps I've always believed contain the best value in racing but its hidden in a complex maze of numbers .....finally though I've condensed everything I've learnt about what is relevant in a handicap race into a mathematical formula that I can apply to any hcap race and best of all the whole thing takes 10-15 mins with a decent calculator and I'm really really happy with the results so far .....races seem to unravel before my eyes even though they look complicated .....I think over the coming months I'm going to have a lot of fun with this and there's nothing to lose ....handicaps are very complex and difficult anyway so anything that can give you an edge in any way has to be good ....beauty is I can rate races at short notice and in quick time so if anyone wants a particular race rated or there's a huge weekend race on the cards I can do it ......today's races I've put up on the forum being 
305 newm  
Al qahwa 
Go far   
255 hay 
Ecclestone  
Taexali 
 
As I'm out to lunch tomorrow if rated a couple of the hcaps tomorrow for anyone's perusal ....
320 curr 
Sors      212
Rattling jewel   211
A few dollars more  207 
 
445 good 
Only two horses appear to figure in this race 
Scottish Glen  270
The warrior    264
 
So onnpaper the formula is saying its between these two 
No prices for tomorrow's racing yet will update later when online but certainly I think tackling the big summer handicaps will be a lot of fun and if anyone wants to post any info ...trends or whatever for a particular race then feel free .....that's what its there for and if it helps get a few winners then all good 

Good luck. Nice to see you back frequently.

For a long time I've truly believed most things in life can be explained with maths .....Horse racing is no exception although there is a big luck factor involved in racing too which cannot be gauged ....I love speed ratings but they are very difficult and time consuming so when times short you can't rate anything ...like me at the moment ....but handicaps I've always believed contain the best value in racing but its hidden in a complex maze of numbers .....finally though I've condensed everything I've learnt about what is relevant in a handicap race into a mathematical formula that I can apply to any hcap race and best of all the whole thing takes 10-15 mins with a decent calculator and I'm really really happy with the results so far .....races seem to unravel before my eyes even though they look complicated .....I think over the coming months I'm going to have a lot of fun with this and there's nothing to lose ....handicaps are very complex and difficult anyway so anything that can give you an edge in any way has to be good ....beauty is I can rate races at short notice and in quick time so if anyone wants a particular race rated or there's a huge weekend race on the cards I can do it ......today's races I've put up on the forum being 
305 newm  
Al qahwa 
Go far   
255 hay 
Ecclestone  
Taexali 
 
As I'm out to lunch tomorrow if rated a couple of the hcaps tomorrow for anyone's perusal ....
320 curr 
Sors      212
Rattling jewel   211
A few dollars more  207 
 
445 good 
Only two horses appear to figure in this race 
Scottish Glen  270
The warrior    264
 
So onnpaper the formula is saying its between these two 
No prices for tomorrow's racing yet will update later when online but certainly I think tackling the big summer handicaps will be a lot of fun and if anyone wants to post any info ...trends or whatever for a particular race then feel free .....that's what its there for and if it helps get a few winners then all good 

Time to knuckle down and go for a nice win each Saturday so going to bring both computer views on to a couple of decent hcaps and put them in doubles to just attempt a decent win after all that's what its all about 
255 hay 
Ecclestone   212
Taexali    209
Snap shots   207
Ecclestone didnthave any luck at all against snap shots when thechips were going down last time ...capable of much better and better at Weights he should be on the scene especially if snap shots is at the front .,,ew value ...taexali is a dark horse ..been running well in defeat and much better than bookies giving credit for ...this looks easier today so big prices available and Clifford Lee's 5lb claim a big plus 
Ecclestone 8/1
Taexali    18/1
305 newm 
 
Al qahwa     215
Go far       210
Boy in the bar 207
 
Al qahwa     5/1
Go far   14/1 
4x 5pt ew doubles with corals ....nice prices lets have some fun 

For a long time I've truly believed most things in life can be explained with maths .....Horse racing is no exception although there is a big luck factor involved in racing too which cannot be gauged ....I love speed ratings but they are very difficult and time consuming so when times short you can't rate anything ...like me at the moment ....but handicaps I've always believed contain the best value in racing but its hidden in a complex maze of numbers .....finally though I've condensed everything I've learnt about what is relevant in a handicap race into a mathematical formula that I can apply to any hcap race and best of all the whole thing takes 10-15 mins with a decent calculator and I'm really really happy with the results so far .....races seem to unravel before my eyes even though they look complicated .....I think over the coming months I'm going to have a lot of fun with this and there's nothing to lose ....handicaps are very complex and difficult anyway so anything that can give you an edge in any way has to be good ....beauty is I can rate races at short notice and in quick time so if anyone wants a particular race rated or there's a huge weekend race on the cards I can do it ......today's races I've put up on the forum being 
305 newm  
Al qahwa 
Go far   
255 hay 
Ecclestone  
Taexali 
 
As I'm out to lunch tomorrow if rated a couple of the hcaps tomorrow for anyone's perusal ....
320 curr 
Sors      212
Rattling jewel   211
A few dollars more  207 
 
445 good 
Only two horses appear to figure in this race 
Scottish Glen  270
The warrior    264
 
So onnpaper the formula is saying its between these two 
No prices for tomorrow's racing yet will update later when online but certainly I think tackling the big summer handicaps will be a lot of fun and if anyone wants to post any info ...trends or whatever for a particular race then feel free .....that's what its there for and if it helps get a few winners then all good 

Time to knuckle down and go for a nice win each Saturday so going to bring both computer views on to a couple of decent hcaps and put them in doubles to just attempt a decent win after all that's what its all about 
255 hay 
Ecclestone   212
Taexali    209
Snap shots   207
Ecclestone didnthave any luck at all against snap shots when thechips were going down last time ...capable of much better and better at Weights he should be on the scene especially if snap shots is at the front .,,ew value ...taexali is a dark horse ..been running well in defeat and much better than bookies giving credit for ...this looks easier today so big prices available and Clifford Lee's 5lb claim a big plus 
Ecclestone 8/1
Taexali    18/1
305 newm 
 
Al qahwa     215
Go far       210
Boy in the bar 207
 
Al qahwa     5/1
Go far   14/1 
4x 5pt ew doubles with corals ....nice prices lets have some fun 

Ok, so as you know I produce ratings on every race, every day and although it's been pretty successful its very difficult to cover all of the selections. The other day there was 9 meetings and 67 races! 
We had something like 14 winners but thats also a lot of losers, so how can we narrow down the selections?
I have a theory so i'm going to trial it and see how it goes, I wouldn't recommend anyone follow this just yet.
My personal outlook when trying to pick a winner comes in three simple stages.
1) Horse has to be in good current form coming into the race.
2) Horse has to have the ability/potential to achieve a certain standard for that race.
3) Horse must be consistent enough to think it can produce that standard.
In ratings terms we translate that as follows.
Each horse has a rating for its last 5 outings.
A) Current Form: Must have the highest rating of the field last time out.
B) Potential: Must have the highest individual rating of the field overall in its last 5 runs.
C) Reliability: Must have highest accumulative total over last 5 runs. (at least 10pts clear of next top rated)
Due to needing a reliability factor this will count out the majority of Maiden races due to lack of form to work on. 
Staking
The stakes will be fairly simple, 1pt if a horse is 10pts clear, 2pts if a horse is 20pts clear and so on.
*On average we only get a handful of horses more than say 40pts clear, these are often maiden races where not all of the runners have had enough starts.
I'm not sure how many qualifiers this will throw up, maybe some days a couple and other days none?
 

Had a quick look at the Haydock card today with it being my local track and the lethal combination there that is Kingscote/Dascombe.
 They have Legato (12/1) in the 2.10. Only had 4 runs so far, all maidens and starts handicap life off 66 today.
 First 3 maiden runs were over a mile, and his next run last time was over 1m 2f at Chester when hampered and then stayed on late so even though finished 7th he did hint that might be better over further.
 Handicap debut today stepping up in trip from 1m 2f to 1m 3.5f.
 Chester is obviously a tight track too so I think a fairer, galloping track like Haydock might help.
 That was quite a hot Class 3 maiden at Chester last time too with the winner of that race now rated 88.
 So the combination of the step up in trip, handicap debut, and drop in class could all point to a big run

Got no run up the inside. Switched to outside and ran on well into 2nd. Not bad at 33/1. 

Pipers note wins ....bank 45pts carry 20pts over to tomorrow 

Scilly sunset 1st harlequin rock 3rd ....not bad run ..close 

Finally I've got some time off ....wanted to play with something diff this week ....I've programmed visual basic to produce a graph for each handicap horse based on figures I input I can then see if the horse is plateauing ...dropping in form or improving and factoring in recent form i.e. last race it produces a figure based on the horses estimated ability to win under today's conditions ....today I picked the 525 leic and top 4 are 
1 fly boy   88
10 flying fantasy  88
3 stosur  87
6 another boy 85 
Stosur has weak recent profile and needs to step up a lot ...another boys recent race was nothing special although could improve now coming into form but still behind the top 2 here so ill try singles 
Fly boy 5pts win 11/2 tote
Flying fantasy 5pts win 8.8 betfair