richard-westwood

Carnage at the bookies .....Lord wrskine wins easily ....bestbodds guaranteed 25/1 130 pts plus 40 from earlier so a good day at the office .......may as well just check out the lot all of the 220 pts from yesterday and 170 pts  today is a near 400pt payout ....rather than risk  roll it over .don't wanna push my luck ...should pay for a nice break away somewhere sunny and start again fresh next weekend 

1st and 4th ...40pts returned 

515 naval Irish cesarewitch
San remo   98.94
Gustavus vassa 98.92
Lord erskine  98.92
Hugely tricky 26 runner minefield ....lots of these have question marks while others such as the fav gustavus vassa are unknown quantity stepping up to this class and dist for the first time .....he represents a top trainer who does really well in this race hence he's fav so you have to respect him....best value in the race is o briens San remo who could be a force if the extra yardage doesn't bother him ....and lord erskine has been in sparkling form and gets a large weight allowance steppingnup in class so the doors open for him if hes good enough ....very very tough race ...3 against the field safest option and hope a biggy goes in 
San remo 5pts win 28/1 lads
Gustavo vassa 5pts wins 11/2 stanj
Lord erskine 5pts win 20/1 lads 

515 naval Irish cesarewitch
San remo   98.94
Gustavus vassa 98.92
Lord erskine  98.92
Hugely tricky 26 runner minefield ....lots of these have question marks while others such as the fav gustavus vassa are unknown quantity stepping up to this class and dist for the first time .....he represents a top trainer who does really well in this race hence he's fav so you have to respect him....best value in the race is o briens San remo who could be a force if the extra yardage doesn't bother him ....and lord erskine has been in sparkling form and gets a large weight allowance steppingnup in class so the doors open for him if hes good enough ....very very tough race ...3 against the field safest option and hope a biggy goes in 
San remo 5pts win 28/1 lads
Gustavo vassa 5pts wins 11/2 stanj
Lord erskine 5pts win 20/1 lads 

Carnage at the bookies .....Lord wrskine wins easily ....bestbodds guaranteed 25/1 130 pts plus 40 from earlier so a good day at the office .......may as well just check out the lot all of the 220 pts from yesterday and 170 pts  today is a near 400pt payout ....rather than risk  roll it over .don't wanna push my luck ...should pay for a nice break away somewhere sunny and start again fresh next weekend 

1st and 4th ...40pts returned 

Close finish but pixeleen wins ..220 pts returned ill pocket 120 and rollover 100 to next week and diesnt matter if loses its bookies cash!!!

205 newm 
Kassia   99.12
Marie of Lyon  99.09
Pixeleen   99.09
Rosabelle   99.07
These 4 are a lityle clear of the rest so I'd be surprised if the winner wasn't here...Marie of lyon has r Moore on so needs respecting ....looks on the upgrade but has a big penalty to carry so more needed now ....rossbelle likewise on the upgrade but steps up 2 classes so more needed ...at the prices the 10/1 on kAssia and 16/1 on pixeleen look very appealing e.w and make decent bets to attempt another rollover for next week so I'll play 
Kassia 10pts e.w 10/1 will h
Pixeleen 10pts e.w 16/1 paddyp

I'll top the 24pt rollover up to 30 pts for Saturday's big race 
Arcanada  99.31
Firmament 99.28
Mojito   99.25 
Makzeem  99.24 
Incredibly difficult race to rollover to but some big prices onnoffer so time to roll with it ...mojito sets a good standard and is progressive ...no surprise to see him win but has been harshly penalised so much more needed now ....likewise makzeem who also looks dangerous but also has a penalty to contend with ....Firmament finished 2nd last year and has been showing signs of being aimed at this again .....was given far too much to do last time and made up an enormous amount of ground on remarkable considering so is looking ready for a big run now ...the 20/1 looks very good value ......arcanada is a tricky horse to weigh up ...didn't really enjoy globetrotting but punted in a group 2 shows the high  regard the trainer has of this horse .....loads of speed he's cryingbout for a fast run 7f which he's going to finally get now so all the pieces are in place for a big run at 20/1 ....2 good value bets so worth a shot at a big payout with the rollover cash
Arcanada 15pts win 20/1 will hill
Firmament 15pts win 20/1 willhill

Then finally top 6 betting so 6 steps ....

Wow a blast from the past ..some good sense in the method though well worth a look 

24.5 pts carried  to challenge cup saturday 

440 bath 
Air of York  98.84
Fantasy justifier 98.82
Nutini  98.77
Top two are a bit clear in an poor race ...most of these are out of form so I'd expect a big run from both these top two today ...see if I can start a double up 
Air of York 7 pts win 5/2 will hill
Fantasy justifier 3pts win 6/1 willhill

440 bath 
Air of York  98.84
Fantasy justifier 98.82
Nutini  98.77
Top two are a bit clear in an poor race ...most of these are out of form so I'd expect a big run from both these top two today ...see if I can start a double up 
Air of York 7 pts win 5/2 will hill
Fantasy justifier 3pts win 6/1 willhill

3.05: Chantilly - 2017 Arc De Triomphe
"You are prone to bad luck at Chantilly; often the best horse gets beaten there" - John Gosden
Correct. John Gosden, trainer of wonder filly Enable is rightly concerned if it comes to external influences in today's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
The dual Oaks and King George champ is the red hot betting favourite for quite some time. Rightly so. There is little more she needs to do to prove her class. She IS all class.
However a long season, a big field of top class contenders, most of them the opposite sex, tough ground and a course that can throw up strange results - there is a lot to overcome today....
.... and a lot to like about Enable! 
On the positive side of things, Enable could have not get a better draw allotted in the lottery that can kill chances of any horse before the race is even run. She can start from stall 2 - it gives her flamboyant star jockey Frankie Dettori every chance to make a decision whereas other rivals have to take what's left over.
Enable is an uncomplicated filly, she has no problem to race prominently. I'm sure Dettori will settle her close enough to the pace with every chance to get the clearest of runs. The track will be more of an issue for anyone behind her: no excuses.
So, if she is in the form she presented herself all year she'll win. Plain and simple. Fillies and three year old fillies in particular have a superb record in the Arc.
But what if a season that started in a Conditions Stake at Newbury back in April has taken a toll? You couldn't begrudge Enable to lose some percentage of her superb form that saw the three year old land spectacular victories throughout the summer.
Well - Autumn, soft ground and Chantilly can do strange things to horses. So at prices I have to take on Enable. As much as I would love the story of her winning the race, as much I feel ENABLEd to say: this is one too many for her this year.
....
I like three individuals at much bigger odds: the German raider Dschingis Secret, the recent Leger hero Capri and the French Cloth Of Stars .
Dschingis Secret: The German horse has no issues on the soft ground and usually does his best at the back end of his races. The way he finds another gear in the closing stages, as seen in the Prix Foy and Großer Preis von Berlin, is a trait not too many horses posses.
The way he races does not look sexy. He can get sweaty, be a bit keen but also can appear to be off the bridle earlier than a high class individual should be. But that doesn't matter. The apparent ease - once hitting top gear - he puts away classy contenders suggest that this lad is hitting top form when it matters most.
The draw isn't ideal, ten is as wide as you want to be and he will need a bit of luck. But hey, this is horse racing. You'll always need a bit of " luck" on the big day. 16's is a serious price for a serious horse.
Capri: The drop in trip won't be an issue. He's an Irish Derby winner with form over shorter too. He travells strongly through his races and simply has an exceptional attitude to keep on going, as seen at Doncaster a fortnight ago. Soft ground doesn't bother him, in fact the true stamina test expected will rather suit him today.
He's here's soon enough with little time to recover plus faces the difficult task to break from stall 15. However that is reflected in the price, and I feel taken into account overly negative. Yes, he is not the likeliest winner of the race, but surely a dual Classic winner has a slightly better than 5% chance with conditions likely to suit him?!
Cloth Of Stars: It's been eight years since Sea The Stars became a legend in this very race. His son Cloth Of Stars is one who has the tools to emulate his almighty daddy. He's got a good draw, a fair prep run under the belt off a four months long break when runner-up in the Foy behind Dschingis Secret and was unbeaten in 2017 before that.
Stamina is a question mark. He is yet to win over 1m 4f. On the plus side he loves the ground and deserves another crack at this distance after only two tries and with some improvement still possible.
Some words on the rest of field: Don't count out Ulysses, either. He will love the track, he's been a revelation this season and acts on softish ground. That says ground and trip in combination should not play to his strengths, I feel.
There is loads of money coming for Order Of St. George. He's a sexy contender, I admit. He looked SO good in the Irish Ledger. Ground and trip is fine. A stayer with a turn of foot, Arc 3rd twelve months ago. Yeah, he's a serious chance, Ballydoyle's best, no doubt.
I say that because it's only the 1st October and Winter is not coming - not today. The superstar filly has done it all this season, but this is a step too far. Sure, as a daughter of Galileo all is seemingly possible - but a long year, tough ground, a trip as far as she's never gone before - too much.
My point is....
..... this is a wide open Arc! Much more open than the betting suggests. We have a star filly in Enable who is likely to take plenty of beating if all goes right for her. But this is the Arc, it's autumn, it's Chantilly, it's tough ground, it's a high class field.... there is plenty of room for things to pan out in a completely different way. Let's hope it goes my way.
Selections:
10pts win - Dschingis Secret @ 16/1 Bet365
10pts win - Capri @ 20/1 Bet365
5pts win - Cloth To Stars @ 28/1 Bet365

C'mon you beauty ...Us navy flag wins 39pts returned 2/2  so far

Good start 22pts returned 

Ignore that crap i was fallin asleep been a hard week ...both still running i was seeing stars i think 

Ignore that crap i was fallin asleep been a hard week ...both still running i was seeing stars i think 

Beat the bank wins ..nice price 

My ratings for Cambridgeshire

Linguistic EW 25/1 Betfair
Master The World EW 22/1 Paddy Power
 

Agree with you on Capri Richard and I was all over him in the Leger. Main negative I think though could be the draw, don’t know if you’ve seen it? Capri drawn 15. Full draw as follows;
Zarak 18
Doha Dream 12
One Foot In Heaven 11
Ulysses 1
Cloth Of Stars 3
Silverware 16
Idaho 7
Dschingis Secret 10
Satono Diamond 13
Satono Noblesse 5
Iquitos 6
Order Of St George 9
Seventh Heaven 17
Brametot 4
Capri 15
Plumatic 14
Enable 2
Winter 8

Enable   99.35
Capri    99.33
  J gosdens enable is all but unbackable in this and many think is home and hosed but o brien is a master and wont go down without a fight ...ryan has chosenn winter but im not convinced a tough 12f is what that horse needs ..has a lot to prove ...but At 20/1 I think Capri is vastly overpriced ...ran a cracker in the st leger and its one if the better ones ive seen for a while proving what a tough and genuine horse this is ......and has been given just long enough to recover that fitness is also an advantage he has......great pedigree out of Galileo just ticks too many boxes to ignore so if I'm going to have a bet I'll try for an upset here by the maestro 
Capri  10pts e.w 20/1 corals 

Shadwell Joel stakes 
Beat the bank  99.12
Sovereign debt  99.10
Mushtashry  99.09
Classy but tough race this ...only tackling now because will hill are offering fair prices at the mo which won't last long ...Beat the bank sets a good standard and looks like a horse on the upgrade...not much between mushtashry and sovereign debt ...but with sovereign debt 12/1 and barely a length separating them on form then the 12/1 looks fantastic value in such an open race ...
Beat the bank 10pts win 3/1 will
Sovereign debt 10pts win 12/1 will h