richard-westwood

345 asc balmoral hcap 
empire storm   99.56
halation      99.52
mussadas      99.52
sacrificial      99.47
bronze angel   99.47 
very tricky hcap to finish the day ..well known for being a minefield ...sacrificial is fav here at around 7/1 so sets the standard but currently the three horses above him are 14/1    24.0 ...26.0 ....so rather than fart about trying to separate ...in such an open race ill have all three run at very good value odds 
 
mussadas    2 pts win  14/1willh
halation  2 pts win 24.0 betfair
empirestorm  2 pts win 26.0 betfair

345 newm 
goathland  98.76
not never    98.69
mustard    98.68
wonder laish 98.65 
 
another tough race but peter chappal hyam won this last year and saddles the top rated goathland here ..priced at 16/1 he looks an easy ew bet ..   
goathland 2 pts ew 16/1 lads

anything can and probably will happen in this race ....golden horns the best horse and could just overcome the draw like treve did .......treve might do it again and make it three ( somebodies got to do it sooner or later ...so why not ..) ....new bay recorded a decent time last time and prix neil runners do really well in arc so big danger ...  with most bookies goin 4 places ....I think theres a big price place up for grabs .....so anything possible .....fantastic race though compared to the average ...so many possibles to play out . will be interestin to watch what happens ...and good luck whatever camp your in ....

thats exactly how I feel about him .....postponed is rated 127 on timeform and id put eagle top on the same ...maybe 126 .......last years arc was won in 129 ....so if you forgive the recent flop which tbh was on dire heavy ground and totally unsuitable then I agree a performance around 127 could see at least place .....50/1 is just too big and is probably the only value bet left in the race 

thats exactly how I feel about him .....postponed is rated 127 on timeform and id put eagle top on the same ...maybe 126 .......last years arc was won in 129 ....so if you forgive the recent flop which tbh was on dire heavy ground and totally unsuitable then I agree a performance around 127 could see at least place .....50/1 is just too big and is probably the only value bet left in the race 

Well done richard

yeah ....be good to take this race apart and find a decent bet .....here are some interesting stats .....
only 2 winners out of last 12 were drawn higher than nine (treve being one of those) ...... (so 80% of winners are drawn 9 or lower )  ...... good starting point 
 
15 of last 27 arc winners were actually drawn 2  4   6  or  7 ....thats 55% !!.....suggesting very strongly theres a draw bias in the arc ....
 
14 of last 28  arcs won by lightly raced .up and coming french horse  ... .younger horses dominate as they are better weighted under the rules ..   
 
food for thought ...... ill run the race through the computer when I get chance and see if theres anything in the low draws lurking 
 
but would be  interesting to hear peoples thoughts on race 
 
dont know draw yet but obviuosly treve is on everyone lips ..... initial speed ratings and stats suggest ...new bay is the one possibly ....arc is normally won by horse speed rated around 102 ... .and new bay achieved that on the bit last time out and recieves all 3 yr old allowances in big race  .. if allocated draw 2 4 6 7 ...?      ....id say serious danger to treve ....

Give us the facts & Stats ...................Who Wins ?
 

not very often all the pieces fall into place like that ......theyve gotta do it on the day ....nice when they do .....on to the next one !!

Great stuff Richard, top work as always!! Happy enough to nab a place at 28/1.

Brilliant thanks a lot Richard.

Cracking call Richard, well done mate!!

Trends for anyone interested...
Winners have been aged three (3), four (3), five (2) and six. Winners have carried between 8-7 and 9-9 with six between 8-7 and 8-12. Winners have been rated between 87 and 104 with eight between 95 and 104. Winners have been priced between 5/1 and 40/1 with eight returned at 16/1 or shorter and three sent off favourite. Nine winners finished in the first five on their preceding start; only one finished first. Nine winners had run since the beginning of August. Nine winners had won a race during the current season. All the winners had won or been placed in a Class 2 handicap or better. Six winners had either won or been placed on either the July Course or the Rowley Mile Course. Six winners had had 14 or fewer career starts whilst four had raced between 21 and 26 times. Seven winners have been drawn 11 or higher.

my blog is called punter petes horse  racing  blog and its in the systems and blogs section

haha ...I wish .....told my mate I reckon it would go off at around 12/1 if it runs ....he said nah ...ill get 20/1 friday ......lol.....ooops ....its 12/1 with ladbrokes!!! ....gamble has already started .....cant believe that 

Richard. have a look at the write up in my blog.
I fancy homage ew at 40/1 price taken with bet365
 

Very difficult race, good luck Richard!

its been a quiet year relatively speaking as far as big race coups go .....normally ill latch onto something in the derby or other big races but hasnt really been anything special ........not that they always win ....thats always in the lap of the gods ...  poor start or trouble in running and even if youve got the best horse by far your race can be over before it starts .....but sometimes horses shout at you to be backed ...I.e ...ive run this cambridgeshire thru the computer .....
third time lucky   99.31 
polar forest       99 18 
portage       99.11 
 
portage is around 10/1 2nd fav for this so sets the benchmark nicely .... . but these two horses above him are currently 50/1 !!  .. and 25/1 !!! ....    that was the first thing I noted .... secondly ....top rated is trained by richard fahey ... .hes a sly man ....been mopping up races all season and suddenly has slipped one in the big race ???..   I ask myself would it be a shock if fahey won the cambridgeshire ? ....definately not given his season ..    ...more digging ...third time lucky won on the bit last time in a style suggesting hes well ahead of the hcapper and has only been raised 4 lbs which doesnt seem enough ........he is currently nestling at bottom weight .....another positive as light weights have historically done well in this ......  polar forest is also not to be ignored ....hasnt the sparkling profile of the top rated but has been running well and only about 4lbs above his best ever run so not out of it by any means ....certainly no 50/1 shot ....... yes its an open race ...currently 35 runners if they go .......obviuos traffic problems ....draw? ....  but looking at the ratings and profile ......I cant help asking myself ......has xmas come early ??........ always a chance he might not run at this early stage but there has been money for top one ...40-20 with will hill ......so im going to take some 25/1 while its available  .......  shot to nothin really ....won 15 points yest so ill just split it between the two and see what happens 
 
third time lucky  10 pts win  25/1 bet365 
polar forest  5 pts win 50/1 betvic 

nothin else I like today .....isnt much value today ...im just beginning work on the bronze silver and gold cups at the weekend anyway .....75 runners ....so lots to be gettin on with ...lol

Many thanks Richard great ratings. Long may they continue!!

york 440 soi de leau 98.77 george dryden 98.72 the tin man 98.65 the tin man is short priced fav and will be hard to peg back but this is a hcap so value has to be with top two at 18/1 and 25/1 .....going to be hard for everyone but still ew money on offer soi de leau 2 pts ew 18/1 bet365 george dryden 2 pts ew 25/1 bet365

Great stuff richard. Christmas is on the horizon, i want another Bike from Santa lol Lets Ave IT! Yaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!

Brilliant stuff ritchie!!!!

get in ther well done