Newm 620
Just a,quick one ....OUTRUN THE STORM is on his own top rated here ....a fair bit in front of rest ....he's onky 4/1 so no ew price unfortunately I'll try 5pt win 4/1
505 ripon
Spirit catcher 8.6 9/2 8.78
Carolus magnus 8.4 12/1 3.59
Copper and five 8.3 16/1 2.63
Stakes at end on all 3 ....any winner gives 32.33 profit
Good Evening all this Friday evening.......great write up of Saturdays racing by The Brigadier......so will have a 'play' tomorrow of my own picks and also pick/choose from other guys on the thread to 👍......had a week off from racing ( football kept me in beers this week ) as had great 2 days of July meeting 13th / 14th AND then bonus Win on Friday evening to which paid for our Indian takeaway / wine that evening. Did not like last Saturday, as far too much racing, non runners galore, 4 flat meetings and 10 on TV alone from memory. Sooo wish you all an enjoyable / profitable weekend and i hope i have some to with some nice EW plus win selections 🤑
Initially looking at Art Power ( Curragh 3.10 ) as Easterby looking at £72,000 winner prize and 3.45 Oaks like Savethelastdance for a 'double!
Plate 315 market Rasen
Rare forage into jumps but I like to tackle the odd race to keep my hand in
Franky de berlais 9.0 11/2 6.96
La dominale 8.7 7/1 5.66
Presentandcounting 8.5 2.38
Northern bound 8.2
And the new 8.2
Computer is saying top 2 are very good value ew ...especially the top rated .....but stakes at the end give 30.25 pts profit if any 1 of 3 wins so I'll go for that 15pts outlay ....Good luck if you play
Drifted a bit now on Betfair so I have had 5 pts win at 5.23. The money seems to be going on Jamie Spencer's mount My Mate Ted or should I say Marmite Ted
Good luck to Richard
I've backed Myristica as well (6/1). 112 looks a good mark on her novice wins. Allihies won a handicap off 110 after she beat him 3 lengths giving 2 lbs last time at Worcester. This is a big step up and definitely some dangers but should run her race and be thereabouts.
Newm 620
Just a,quick one ....OUTRUN THE STORM is on his own top rated here ....a fair bit in front of rest ....he's onky 4/1 so no ew price unfortunately I'll try 5pt win 4/1
Newm 620
Just a,quick one ....OUTRUN THE STORM is on his own top rated here ....a fair bit in front of rest ....he's onky 4/1 so no ew price unfortunately I'll try 5pt win 4/1
Plate 315 market Rasen
Rare forage into jumps but I like to tackle the odd race to keep my hand in
Franky de berlais 9.0 11/2 6.96
La dominale 8.7 7/1 5.66
Presentandcounting 8.5 2.38
Northern bound 8.2
And the new 8.2
Computer is saying top 2 are very good value ew ...especially the top rated .....but stakes at the end give 30.25 pts profit if any 1 of 3 wins so I'll go for that 15pts outlay ....Good luck if you play
Newm 620
Just a,quick one ....OUTRUN THE STORM is on his own top rated here ....a fair bit in front of rest ....he's onky 4/1 so no ew price unfortunately I'll try 5pt win 4/1
There’s something for everyone this afternoon with the ITV cameras showing four flat races from Newbury with the feature being the Super Sprint at 15:35 plus the Irish Oaks from The Curragh at 15:45 and for the national hunt fans amongst us three races from Market Rasen with the Summer Plate at 15:15 the feature race.
Ground wise we’re looking at good ground officially for bath Newbury and Market Rasen whilst its a bit softer over at The Curragh.
Newbury 13:50
Only six have declared for the listed bet365 Stakes (registered as the Steventon Stakes) run over 10F. Heading the market is the William Haggas trained, Shadwell owned six year old Al Aasy who is two from three at the track. He’s the highest rated of the sextet here although does have to carry a 3lb penalty for winning a listed race at Ascot in May of 2022. He’s never been the most consistent of animals and I’m not sure if dropping back in trip is ideal for the Jim Crowley ridden gelding. At the prices I’m happy enough to take him on today.
Charlie Appleby’s Highland Avenue hasn’t won for over two years but has kept good company in his three starts this season and as he is only 4lb inferior at today’s weights can be a player here.
Freddie & Martyn Meade saddle their French acquisition Epic Poet who we haven’t seen for 251 days although he has been pulled out on the morning of races at Newmarket in April and Goodwood in May with a vets certificate which is a bit concerning.
The two three year olds in the race Dancing Magic and Oviedo are closely matched on Royal Ascot form and maybe not quite up to this standard.
I’ll take a chance with the James Horton trained Phantom Flight who I fancied to cause an upset last time at Newmarket when stepping up to 1m 4F for the first time. He travelled well for a long way and may have just failed to get home. Back to 10F here this lightly raced son of French sire Siyouni could be the value bet under his regular rider P J McDonald.
PHANTOM FLIGHT 1 point win @ 11/1 bet365
Market Rasen 14:05
The first of three races shown by ITV from Market Rasen is a class 4 2m 4 1/2F handicap hurdle which has a very open look about it. Cases can be made for many with to my eyes most fully exposed and not having much in hand of the assessor. One horse who certainly doesn’t fall into that bracket is the Brian Ellison debutant Dream Jet. This is only his fourth ever race under rules having been previously trained in Ireland by Cormac Farrell when showing little in three maiden hurdles at monster prices. He had previously run a couple of times in Irish point to points again showing scant promise. He runs here off of a very low initial handicap mark for his new trainer and the big eye catcher is the booking of champion NH jockey Brian Hughes, who one would think could of ridden any number of these. Obviously any market support for the five year old chestnut would be highly significant but this is an open handicap that won’t take much winning so I’ll take a chance and back him to small stakes each way with the additional place.
DREAM JET 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 Boylesports 1/5th 1234
Newbury 14:25
Next up is a competitive class two 2M 110 yard handicap with a good sized field of fifteen. Current favourite is the lightly raced John & Thady Gosden trained Sweet William who broke his duck in a five runner Doncaster novice contest a fortnight ago over 1M 4F in first time blinkers and enters handicaps now over a new trip of half a mile further. He may well win but current quotes of around 9/2 look very stingy to me and I’ll be opposing him.
William Haggas’s Nathanael Greene was a morning springer for the Northumberland Plate three weeks ago and ran well to finish 4th to Calling The Wind in that competitive contest, 3/4L behind the Andrew Balding trained Aztec Empire and I can not understand why, on identical terms, the latter is five times the price. Obviously this is turf (which Aztec Empire is 0 from 2) as opposed to the synthetic surface at Newcastle but he had excuses for those two runs on turf with the first being his debut when not disgraced in 4th in a Sandown maiden that’s worked out well and at Newbury in April on very soft ground.
There are plenty of others with claims here including my pick Apparate who is trained by Jamie Osborne and ridden here by his daughter Saffie. He’s now a pound lower than when winning the Mallard Handicap at Doncaster for Roger Varian in September 2020 and ran a blinder on his first run for Osbourne at the same track when a seemingly unfancied 18/1 poke when going down by a neck in a 1M 4F handicap won by Aimeric. Sure to be straighter for that run and now stepping up to 2M for the first time he can run well at a nice price and should be backed each way with an additional place.
The ground may not be soft enough for the likes of Zinc White and Novel Legend, although were the ground to ease considerably (remember last weekend!) then Zinc White would be well worthy of a bet.
A decent handicap but I’ll be backing Apparate each way and a small each way saver on Aztec Empire as for me he’s just too big a price.
APPARATE 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
AZTEC EMPIRE 1/2 point each way @ 18/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
Market Rasen 14:40
Fourteen go to post for this year’s renewal of the Unibets Zero% Mission Summer Handicap Hurdle. It has once again got an open look about it. Fergal O’Brien has entered three with the pick of them being the Paddy Brennan ridden Dancila who made a winning handicap hurdle debut at Newton Abbot last month and is only 4lb higher. Presumably Brennan’s pick he can run well with one of Fergal’s other runners Castel Gandalfo having run second in this last year.
Charlie Longsdon’s top weight Everyonesgame is chasing a hat trick of victories following wins at Warwick and Worcester for which he’s been raised 12lb and is another possible whilst James Owen’s Too Friendly also comes here in form following a good second at Cartmel and should be thereabouts.
Adrian Paul Keatley’s Belvedere Blast hasn’t looked back since racing in blinkers, winning three from three with two of those wins coming over course and distance. He’s gone up 22lb for those trio of success’s and has to be a major player here with the booking of Brian Hughes the icing n the cake.
I’ll dutch him and the David Pipe trained Myristica who looks a big danger now going handicapping having won three novice hurdles at Southwell, Newton Abbot and Worcester. He starts off in handicaps off of a mark of 112 which favours comparably with his old flat mark of 83 when trained by Tim Easterby. Pipe also runs Nibras Gold in first time cheek pieces but stable jockey Jack Tudor appears to have chosen the former who can run a big race.
MYRISTICA 1 point win @ 7/1 Paddy Power
BELVEDERE BLAST 1 point win @ 6/1 bet365
Newbury 15:00
A dozen sprinters line up for the Group 3 bet365 Hackwood Stakes run over 6F. The joint best in at today’s weights on official ratings is the Michael Dods trained Comanche Falls who was last seen when winning a listed race at The Curragh at the beginning of the month. He’s a consistent sprinter in good form who should go close here.
Charlie Hills saddles Garrus who’s form ties in with Comanche Falls but has to carry a 3lb penalty here for beating the latter at Newmarket in a Group 3 back in April by a head and the penalty may just swing things in favour of Comanche Falls.
Five of the dozen runners are three year olds with possibly the Ralph Beckett trained Lezoo, who is officially joint rated top with Commance Falls, the best of them. Frankie Dettori takes the ride following his suspension which forced him to miss the July meeting at Newmarket and lets not forget she was a top juvenile, winning in Group 3 class at Ascot and Group 1 company at Newmarket in the Cheveley Park Stakes in September. She’s unpenalised for those victories and although she blatantly didn’t stay the mile in the 1000 Guineas on her reappearance she does have to answer a few questions after finishing a 9L 10th of 13 in the 6F Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot.
One horse who may be over priced and can out run his odds is the Jonathan Portman trained Rumstar who I was (and still are) interested in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood next month. He went off an unfancied 80/1 shot in the Commonwealth Cup when out running his odds to finish fifth (beaten 2 1/2L) to Shaquille (won Group 1July Cup since) with the third Swingalong (Group 3 winner since) half a length in front of him in third place with Lezoo 6 1/2L further back. That’s smart form if taken at face value and if not trained by the unfashionable Jonathan Portman would surely be at shorter odds. Portman secured a double at Epsom on Thursday night so comes here in top form.
I do think that Lezoo is better than that last run mind and will give her another chance here but must have a small stakes saver on Rumstar who looks over priced. Watch your place terms here by the way as Skybet are 5 places with Unibet and Betfred both four places whilst everyone else is three places.
LEZOO 1 point win @ 9/2 William Hill
RUMSTAR 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234
Market Rasen 15:15
The feature jumps race today from Market Rasen is the Unibet Summer Plate Handicap Chase run over 2m 5 1/2F with a maximum field of sixteen going to post.
Peter Bowen is in fine form currently and sends a brace of runners in the four timer seeking Courtland ridden by Gavin Sheehan and top weight Francky Du Berlais who’s won this race for the last two years off of marks of 137 and 139. He races this year off of 140 and with a tenderly ridden third in the trial for this race over course and distance four weeks ago sure to have put him spot on for today and has to be part of the staking plan.
The winner of the “Summer Plate Trial” was Laura Morgan’s And The New who should go well here having won two from two at the Lincolnshire track although he has been shunted up 10lb for that victory which seems quite extreme.
If you like that form then you must like the Neil Mulholland trained Fix At All who ran well to finish runner up, beaten 4 1/2L, and is now 8lb better off. Mulholland is in great form currently winning with 3 of his last 9 NH runners (up to start of play Thursday). He looks good value and can run well.
There are plenty of others with chances including Sarah Humphrey’s Gloire D’athon who’s won 5 of his 8 races over fences and was last seen when taking the Clarke Chase at Uttoxeter in May (Killer Clown 2L back in third and 4lb better off) whilst Jonjo O’Neill and JP McManus are represented by La Domaniale, an Aintree winner in May.
A tough call but I’ll split my stakes with Francky Du Berlais who looks to have been laid out for this race and Fix At All.
FRANCKY DU BERLAIS 1 point win @ 6/1 Betfred 1/5 12345
FIX AT ALL 1 point each way @ 14/1 William Hill 1/5 12345
Newbury 15:35
The days feature race at the Berkshire track is the 21 runner Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes which is for two year olds bought at specific sales where their weights are allocated by how much they cost, with obviously the expensive purchases having more to carry.
There’s only a handful that can be really fancied here with the warm favourite being the William Haggas trained, Simon Munir & Isaac Souede owned Relief Rally who followed up victories at Windsor and Salisbury with an excellent second spot in the Queen Mary, beaten only a nose by the American challenger Crimson Advocate with one of today’s rivals Juniper Berries, one of two challengers here trained by Eve Johnson Houghton, 4L back in 4th (and now 7lb better off). If she can reproduce that effort this race really is hers to lose.
Only 3lb behind her mind on official ratings is the other Eve Johnson Houghton runner, Bobsleigh who stepped forward from Brighton and Epsom victories to run a career best sixth (beaten 3L)in the 6F Coventry Stakes won by River Tiber at Royal Ascot, form which has already being boosted by the subsequent victory of the third Bucanero Fuerte and the 5th Haatem who chased hom the new two year old superstar City of Troy. He is dropping down to the minimum trip here but should be thereabouts.
The only Irish challenger shouldn’t be dismissed with Kieran P Cotter’s Son Of Corballis coming over having made all to win a listed race over 5F at Tipperary in first time cheek pieces earlier this month.That form is hard to assess against the home challengers but official ratings have him only 8lb behind the favourite here and along with the favourite is part of my staking plan.
RELIEF RALLY 3 points win @ 6/4 Coral
SON OF CORBALLIS 1 point each way @ 7/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234
Curragh 15:45
The fourth Irish classic is the Juddmonte Irish Oaks and is run over 1M 4F. Only eight go to post for this half a million euro guaranteed prize with master trainer Aiden O’Brien saddling half of the field.
Stable jockey Ryan Moore has picked Savethelastdance from the quartet and she looks the one to be with today. She was dynamite when winning by a staggering 22L in the Cheshire Oaks back in May in a mud bath and did little wrong 23 days later when runner up to the Gosden’s Soul Sister in the Epsom Oaks going down by just 1 3/4L on fast ground. She’s been off since and will most certainly enjoy getting her hooves into the rain softened ground once more and will be hard to beat.
Her main danger probably comes from her stable mate Warm Heart who has improved steadily through the season winning her maiden at Leopardstown in May a listed contest at Newbury a fortnight later (from one of today’s opponents Bluestocking) and then the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot from another of today’s rivals in the shape of the Joseph O’Brien trained Lumiere Rock. Both Bluestocking (the only British raider) and Lumiere Rock will need to raise their game to trouble Warm Heart let alone Savethelastdance who can lead home a Aiden O’Brien one two.
SAVETHELASTDANCE 2 points win @ Evens William Hill
All prices were available at time of writing.
Plate 315 market Rasen
Rare forage into jumps but I like to tackle the odd race to keep my hand in
Franky de berlais 9.0 11/2 6.96
La dominale 8.7 7/1 5.66
Presentandcounting 8.5 2.38
Northern bound 8.2
And the new 8.2
Computer is saying top 2 are very good value ew ...especially the top rated .....but stakes at the end give 30.25 pts profit if any 1 of 3 wins so I'll go for that 15pts outlay ....Good luck if you play
8 UK & Irish meetings & not one on Sky Sports Racing .
3.15 Haydock - COLD STARE 3/1 W.Hill 👎
3.50 Haydock - PRINCE ALEX 9/4 W.Hill .👎
Both horses proven on soft ground .
3 winner's at Haydock , none that I'd backed 😥
Newm 620
Just a,quick one ....OUTRUN THE STORM is on his own top rated here ....a fair bit in front of rest ....he's onky 4/1 so no ew price unfortunately I'll try 5pt win 4/1
Killbebbegan 4:30
maiden hurdle
valpresso
hss had everything possible go wrong that could in running. A slipped saddle did for his well backed chances last time and emptied wallets quicker than a price wise or Hugh Taylor tip.
He has a half stone claimer on board and today he has Sam Ewing riding. Sam is owed a big big favour by Gordon Elliott as he has taken one for the team now about 75 times at the last count. There has not been a longer losing run in the Irish racing since Gordon sat on an unfortunate horse and copped a ban.
There is a cloud of silver lining to the story though as each one of those horses will provide the ammunition for winners this season if you can go through the back catalogue of sam’s runners. The trend may well be bucked today, but at odds on, who cares?
u asking me at 200/1 has placed previously and the second placed third next time out to encanto Bruno. Big big outsider but has run well in point to points.
u askingme
each way
200/1
ive also used my free fiver to go
28/1 U askingme
to place (six places )
A 28/1 win bet on a horse who could be very ordinary but run on past beaten horses for sixth is a possibility.
Lucky 15 profit is £1,219 from the entries on this thread.
Current strike rate is 15% so for 16 horses I would expect 2 winners but obviously it doesn't always work out like that. The best I have had is 5, the worst 0.
The current crop of horses may be poor but it doesn't affect some of my key stats such as back 5 year olds, horses that ran more than 30 days ago, ignore horses drawn 1 to 3 etc.
If you can breakeven at LSP then leave the lucky 15 bonuses to do the rest.
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