richard-westwood

Morning all
eight winners yesterday nine if you include the winning distance bet.
I made a profit yesterday, but have to re- examine my techniques.  If I can land eight or nine in a day how much better would that be if they were all together or at least in threes and fours?
 I am an at the post analysist reading outcomes under the race condition pressures feeding on market moves and all the vibes of the immediate lead up  to the race paddock picks etc. So I’m trying to find a happy medium betwixt the ante post and pre race period so I can make selections earlier.
So from today some earlier picks and hopefully a double selection.
But a big reduction in the plays I make, which will be very hard in breaking the habit of a lifetime.
on a regular basis a feast is followed by a famine. I tend to have an after the Lord Mayors show day the very next day. So today is a good day for the “less is more” way forward.. . .
The best today is likely to come in the Doncaster cup where Coltrane will be looking to assert his clear advantage here despite a three pound penalty. Only five go to post but Coltrane has done it tough to be the favourite. The grand visir is a tempting price and questions abound about wether we will see the real trueshan after a wind op when Alan king is suggesting he will “need the run”. Ever the opportunist Aidan O’Brien has meydan winner Broome poised to take full advantage of any weakness here, while Sweet William the youngster ran a career best to Absurde in the Ebor. Maybe he is best caught fresh here but looks up against it. Coltrane to win but at the price the grand visir is my saver each way at an insulting price.
the earlier flying Scotsman is a fascinating affair and the course and distance win of Owen Burrows star turn  War Room was on paper breathtaking and he is priced accordingly. Alarm bells ring loudly here for me. He could be called the winner a long way out passing the camera for the first time is when he caught my eye. But he straightened up takingly and from the head on He was making progress hand over fist and settled the race in a stride. There is where the problems pile up 
1 no opposition and question is can he do it in better company?
2 no worries that he beat trees as you can only beat what you face, but there will be no Red Sea effect here and he’d not get any such favours in running today from this field.
3 the going has to be soft and if it dries any or if they have overwatered he’d be in trouble at this stage. 
4 he’s missed his intended engagement and could be overcooked today in terms of preparation.
5. The price. True, a horse doesn’t know his price but there is no value here at all.
so, the alternative for me is Aidan O’Briens runner  Battle cry and kingdom of riches at a massive price.
interestingly I am also going to stick with the physics because while some have made fun of it, I haven’t begun to scratch the surface and it has made money particularly yesterday. you cannot get eight winners just by guessing. The draw data horse based on a very wide trawl of  previous races is Local Hero in stall 3. The accuracy is to within .3 of a stall. It isn’t based on ground, yard or any number of countless statistics and variables just fact. Local Hero also gets what I call free energy. Whilst on the traverse law of physics the recipient of this feature is kingdom of riches. If War Room does crack on and land this race I’ll be delighted and happy to be wrong as he was highly impressive on debut, but the nagging doubts remain for me until he silences them. 
Downpatrick 2:15
Gone for Tea
each way
Racheal Blackmore rides for Peter fahey on hurdles debut. I like this runner and represents a bit of value against the Mullins horse here. A wide margin winner when last seen in a bumper last month and trainer has said his future lies in hurdles as soon as possible. The jockey booking reflects that. There is a lot going on in racing at the moment and just a day after Luke comer has been banned for a few years and fined ‘pennies’ for
allegedly  doping his horses on steroids, yes the two biggest winners of all time were on steroids He knows no fear 300/1 and najavjo river 200/1 last months winner. I say pennies because the fine represents the Irish horse racing board fined the billionaire  their legal costs and he’ll be free to train again soon despite cheating which goes back years. At the same time in England Harry Burns has been banned for two months after the jockey failed to declare a change in medication that he uses to treat chrones diesease. Yes folks people doping and mistreating horses and jockeys using steroids and taking coccaine and the BHA find a guy (who is a great ambassador and role model to the sport for kids who want to be jockeys) and they take away his livelihood  for a technicality you couldn’t make it up.
BHA You are a laughing stock 
REINSTATE HARRY BURNS AND APOLOGISE TO THE GUY
 
Doncaster flying Scotsman
Battle cry
win
Local Hero
win ( small stake)
kingdom of Riches
each way 
looked the part very early on when last seen and was asserting from a long way out. Clearly eased at the finish and was not all out, so there may be more to come.
Doncaster cup
Coltrane
win
The Grand Visir
each way
2:15
Downpatrick
GONE FOR TEA
Each way

Gregory ran too far behind continuous to see him reversing form when the winner was on the bit and Gregory was all out .....my idea of winner is continuous      ....he's ran well in all the trials ....slight concern about ground as he looks to prefer fast but he won on soft early on so I can't see it being a problem ....another winner for o Brien imo ....but 9 runners for a 700000 race ?..  and piss poor prices really .....I'll just be watching.....another example of racing cutting its own throat again for me ...soon there will only be o Brien ..haggas  and gosden horses in these big races ....that's of no interest to me ....cmon racing get your s*** together 

Portland hcap 
Vintage clarets. 8.8 28/1 
Badri 8.6. 14/1 
Existent 8.6  22/1 
Impossibly difficult race and with ground soft even more so as many haven't seen that all summer ....I've rated on soft and prices are 6places bet365 ...so I'll try 4pt Ew all 3 and hope for a bit of luck 🤞

just got home so take away from curry house and also take away from the cat house 😃

745 Zain nights is a good price me thinks 11/2
815 may sonic can run a good race if in the mood 12/1
845 Enemy has got to be a good bet at 12 or14/1

I’m liking this it won’t last but the money is in the bank and for once my day will be in the colours of profit whatever they are?
back to  the racing league for the last time until the lucky last.
6:15
imperial dream is a real odd one for the master of subterfuge 
win
under traverse law of physics this one stands a chance.
Tahitian Prince 
each way 
is drawn next to aphellios and stands to benefit her if he doesn’t win 

Gone for Charlie Johnstone has to be the first port of call for baths lucky last.
Travelling on his jack jones all the way from  Yorkshire while the rest of the three strong team go to kempton park.
He won here earlier in the summer by a massive 3.5 lengths. He has the benefit of the box seat draw and the unflinching attention of joe fanning who must have drawn the short straw.
The other eye catcher of me is the presence of first time cheek pieces for Micheal applebys Ardbraccan hasn’t won for a very long time but did win as a juvenile in a higher grade. Appleby knows how to place his runners and you get very few clues when it is time to win. Either way the lucky first and a firm belief in physics mean I’ll end the day at this meeting at least in profit.
yes, you can believe in physics and still be a fun punter. Even at the serious end of fun!!
Bath 5:10
Ardbraccan
each way
GONE
Win
yard have 67% strike rate in races of this nature this summer. ( racing post signposts)
 

Feel like having a bit of fun today 
615 south 
Aphrelios 4/1 
Gdaay.  18/1 
645 south 
Tosen wish. 6/1 
Baltimore boy 5/1 
715 south 
Tolstoy 6/1 
Amazonian dream. 16/1 
24x 1pt Ew doubles 

Feel like having a bit of fun today 
615 south 
Aphrelios 4/1 
Gdaay.  18/1 
645 south 
Tosen wish. 6/1 
Baltimore boy 5/1 
715 south 
Tolstoy 6/1 
Amazonian dream. 16/1 
24x 1pt Ew doubles 

Feel like having a bit of fun today 
615 south 
Aphrelios 4/1 
Gdaay.  18/1 
645 south 
Tosen wish. 6/1 
Baltimore boy 5/1 
715 south 
Tolstoy 6/1 
Amazonian dream. 16/1 
24x 1pt Ew doubles 

Feel like having a bit of fun today 
615 south 
Aphrelios 4/1 
Gdaay.  18/1 
645 south 
Tosen wish. 6/1 
Baltimore boy 5/1 
715 south 
Tolstoy 6/1 
Amazonian dream. 16/1 
24x 1pt Ew doubles 

To be honest i think anyone competent could find a winner (or a few) a day quite often. Profit a day is a different matter because i think you would need to post many selections. @MCLARKE you do/did many lucky 15 a day many selections what was your "blank" ratio? @LEE-GRAYS also posts many selections but not sure he is bothered enough to keep a record but he would have some idea of blank days @Sporting Sam seems to post many and has winners but says he does not make a profit. Does @The Brigadier "weekend" write up selections produce a profit? He has many winners. What i will say is if you select, lets say 8 races and get say just 1 winner it is very hard before hand to decide which one will win, i base this on the SL naps table which i look at to see how the brigadier is doing and the amount of times i see 10+ consecutive losers on that table is a bit mind boggling. As for tipsters a wise old man once said to me, "if you cant pick your own horse or buying tips then you are betting on the wrong sport." he was referring to serious betting and not casual betting.

Gregory ran too far behind continuous to see him reversing form when the winner was on the bit and Gregory was all out .....my idea of winner is continuous      ....he's ran well in all the trials ....slight concern about ground as he looks to prefer fast but he won on soft early on so I can't see it being a problem ....another winner for o Brien imo ....but 9 runners for a 700000 race ?..  and piss poor prices really .....I'll just be watching.....another example of racing cutting its own throat again for me ...soon there will only be o Brien ..haggas  and gosden horses in these big races ....that's of no interest to me ....cmon racing get your s*** together 

ZR IS MY RATING SR IS STOPWATCH (RP) ZSR IS COMBINATION. Its looking like soft or worse ground speed figures work best when ground is no worse than soft. Its close on the figures so i will take the top 3 in RFC and hope TC, can see this ending up a 5 horse race. Like @richard-westwood says another piss poor effort and waste of good racing money. I wouldn't put anyone off Richards selection but the value for me is in the f/c.

Gregory ran too far behind continuous to see him reversing form when the winner was on the bit and Gregory was all out .....my idea of winner is continuous      ....he's ran well in all the trials ....slight concern about ground as he looks to prefer fast but he won on soft early on so I can't see it being a problem ....another winner for o Brien imo ....but 9 runners for a 700000 race ?..  and piss poor prices really .....I'll just be watching.....another example of racing cutting its own throat again for me ...soon there will only be o Brien ..haggas  and gosden horses in these big races ....that's of no interest to me ....cmon racing get your s*** together 

545 curr 
Coeur dor  8.9 13.0
Killybegs warrior  8.8  22.0 
Kingswood   8.6 13.5 
5pt wins top 3 ....forecasts all 3 😁 

150 curr 
Albasheer   9.0 9.2 
Fresh   8.9  8.6 
Summerghand  8.8 
Mr wagyu    8.6 
Very very competitive sprint but these 4 set very high standards so I'll be surprised if 1 doesn't win ....I'll try 5pt wins top 2  ...and forecasts all 4 and 20p tricasts 

545 curr 
Coeur dor  8.9 13.0
Killybegs warrior  8.8  22.0 
Kingswood   8.6 13.5 
5pt wins top 3 ....forecasts all 3 😁 

150 curr 
Albasheer   9.0 9.2 
Fresh   8.9  8.6 
Summerghand  8.8 
Mr wagyu    8.6 
Very very competitive sprint but these 4 set very high standards so I'll be surprised if 1 doesn't win ....I'll try 5pt wins top 2  ...and forecasts all 4 and 20p tricasts 

545 curr 
Coeur dor  8.9 13.0
Killybegs warrior  8.8  22.0 
Kingswood   8.6 13.5 
5pt wins top 3 ....forecasts all 3 😁 

150 curr 
Albasheer   9.0 9.2 
Fresh   8.9  8.6 
Summerghand  8.8 
Mr wagyu    8.6 
Very very competitive sprint but these 4 set very high standards so I'll be surprised if 1 doesn't win ....I'll try 5pt wins top 2  ...and forecasts all 4 and 20p tricasts 

Couple of Singles. 
1.50. Curr. Mr Wagyu      9/1
stk 5.00   rtn 50.00.
3.50 York. Juan Les Pin   15/2
stk 5.00     rtn 47.50.
----------------
Double. 
York. 
2.15. Bajan Bandit       5/1
4.25. Kington                 9/2
Singles & double 
stk. 6.00    89.00.
Good luck all. 

Tudor City                                                           5 45 Cra/        1/40th of  a pt ew  40/1
Mr Wagu                                                             1 50 Cra/        1/40th of a pt ew   14/1
Ladies Church                                                    2 55 Cra/        1/40th of a pt ew   33/1
Thunder Moor                                                   4 55 Yrk/         1/40th of a pt ew   16/1
Didn'thavemuchtodo                                       5 45 Cra/         1/40th of a pt ew   28/1
Prisoner's Dilemmma                                      1 50 Cra/         1/40th of a pt ew   40/1
Perdika                                                               4 25 Yrk           1/40th of a pt ew   18/1
 
 
 
 
 
P/L  + 170.90 pts

545 curr 
Coeur dor  8.9 13.0
Killybegs warrior  8.8  22.0 
Kingswood   8.6 13.5 
5pt wins top 3 ....forecasts all 3 😁 

Strong physics indicators for the British raiders 
The bold lad, the curragh 
Summerghand
Each way
Albasheer
win
master Matt
each way
combination forecast