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salmonman

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  1. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > February 15th   
    Two more bets for today 
    hampton & Richmond 1pt @ 11/8 with marathon 
    Gainsborough 1pt @ 67/59 with marathon 
  2. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > February 15th   
    Another good day last Saturday kept up the good record so far this month. As for tomorrow the weather is set to be pretty shocking and I suspect plenty of games will get called off. I have a shortlist of 6 teams, but I am going to just put 2 bets up for now as I think both of these games will go ahead. If any of the other 4 do go ahead I will add them tomorrow.
    Notts County v Woking
    County seem very confident this will go ahead and they are in very good form at the moment losing just one of their last 10 league games. They also had a good win last week in the FA Trophy beating Yeovil 2-1 despite having 10 men from just before half time and then 9 men for the last 20 minutes. Woking haven't played since the first day of the month, but their away form has been dreadful as they have lost 6 on the bounce conceding 18 and scoring just 4. County should be confident of picking up another 3 points here.
    Dorking v Chelmsford
    More than happy to oppose Chelmsford again who lost to Step 4 Aveley in the Trophy last week. They have struggled away from home all season anyway. Dorking also lost in the Trophy, but they were playing Fylde and gave it a good go. They are very good at home having lost just 3 games and with this match on a 3G pitch only the wind will stop it from being on. I would make them odds on so a shade of odds against looks a decent price.
    Notts County 2.5pts @ Evs with Bet365 and William Hill
    Dorking 2pts @ 21/20 with William Hill and BetVictor
  3. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > February 8th   
    Saturday was a superb day with 5 of the 7 bets winning including the Nap's Spennymoor and Stratford at a big price as well. Tuesday saw two winners and an injury time goal from Horsham stopped us getting 3/3 in midweek. This Saturday I have 8 bets spread across the leagues and the FA Trophy.
    Welling v Slough (National League South)
    Happy to go in with Welling again after they did us a turn last weekend against St Albans. This is a tougher game for the home side, but as I mentioned last week I think we will continue to see improved performances from them due to the change in manager. Slough are obviously in the play-off picture, but did lose to Oxford City last week and I give Welling a better chance of making it 4 wins on the bounce than the bookies do.
    Hednesford v Kings Langley (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
    Another team to do the business for us in the last week were Kings Langley who came from a goal down to win on Tuesday night. That win continued their great form and they can pick up another 3 points here. I don't think all is right at Hednesford and they have lost their last 3 games and the only wins in their last 10 are against the lesser teams in the division. I nearly opposed them on Tuesday but left Nuneaton alone in the end only for Nuneaton to win 3-0. Kings Langley can go above their hosts with a win here and I would make them favourites to do so.
    Buxton v Gainsborough (BetVictor Northern Premier)
    Gainsborough were the other team to win for us on Tuesday night and that made it 5 wins on the bounce. We have been on them a few times of late and they are worth backing again here for me. Buxton have only managed 6 wins all season and although they aren't in bad form they are tending to beat the teams around them more than anything else and Trinity are clearly better than a 15th place team at the moment.
    Radcliffe v Lancaster (BetVictor Northern Premier)
    Radcliffe have picked up just one point in their last 8 games and they have scored 6 goals in their last 10 whilst conceding 23. Lancaster look a good price at odds against to beat them. They are 3rd in the table at the moment and had a good win against Warrington last weekend. They ought to be capable of picking up 3 more points here.
    Potters Bar Town v AFC Hornchurch (BetVictor Isthmian Premier)
    As I mentioned when I took Potters Bar on a couple of weeks ago they tend to only be capable of beating teams lower in the table than them and struggle against the better teams in the league. Hornchurch are certainly one of those as Folkestone have been the only team to beat them in their last 10 matches. They look full of goals at the moment and have scored 7 in their last 2 matches. Like Lancaster I think they should be odds on to win this.
    Aveley v Chelmsford (FA Trophy)
    Into the FA Trophy now and I fancy Step 4 Aveley to cause an upset here. I don't think all is well at Chelmsford at the moment with the sacking of Rod Stringer last week and then they were beaten by Dulwich on Saturday. They look vulnerable against an Aveley side who in any other season would be likely title winners having lost just 3 games all season, but they are in the same division as Maldon & Tiptree so they are going to have to try and go up via the play-offs. Maldon are actually the only team to have beaten Aveley in their last 10 league games, but they are clearly better than a Step 4 side. This looks the perfect time to play Chelmsford as well so they are worth a bet.
    Barnet v Barrow (FA Trophy)
    Barrow suffered their first loss since October on Tuesday night when they went down 2-1 to Dover and I think they can lose again here. The team made their way down to London on Friday morning, but although the exact team isn't known Ian Evatt has said he will be using the fringe players of his squad. That isn't really a surprise given the position they have in the league and the fact they had a long journey on Tuesday night. I suspect we will see a strong Barnet side as they will see this as a good chance to progress to the next round and get a step closer to Wembley. Paul McCallum is a great signing and he should help them get the goals they have sometime been lacking. I would make them favourites myself.
    Ebbsfleet v Royston (FA Trophy)
    Royston like Aveley have been flying in their league of late and have also only been beaten in their last 10 games by the best side in their division, in this case Tamworth. They beat Chester 3-0 in the previous round and they certainly won't fear an Ebbsfleet side who look like they are going to be relegated back down to Step 2 this season. At 16/5 it looks a value play to me.
    Welling 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill
    Kings Langley 2pts @ 197/100 with Marathon
    Gainsborough 1pt @ 6/4 with BetVictor
    Lancaster 3pts @ 11/10 with Marathon
    AFC Hornchurch 3pts @ 23/20 with Marathon
    Aveley 1pt @ 69/25 with Marathon
    Barnet 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365
    Royston 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365
  4. Like
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > January 25th   
    @darranpearce is my Twitter. Out of the shortlist of 3 I had last night on one team won so it would have been a losing night if I had of decided to play so I made the right call to have my doubts about them being bets.
  5. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > New Year's Day   
    3 winners on Saturday and the Nap won again although the day pretty much summed up what has been a very tough December. Kettering were well backed in the end and they were involved in a game which could have gone either way so the bet was spot on, but sadly it wasn't a winning one. There looks to be plenty of value around on New Year's Day and I have 7 bets.
    Torquay v Yeovil
    The 3 goals Yeovil gave away on Saturday against Sutton were all shocking from a defensive point of view and I certainly hope they defend better on Wednesday against a Torquay side who bounced back to form against Woking on Saturday. Having said that there was some fortune in 3 of of Torquay's goals against Woking and Woking were down to 10 men when it was only 2-1. I'm not sure we can use that match as proof they are fully out of their slump and given Yeovil gave them a 6-2 hammering on Boxing Day this is clearly going to be a much tougher game. When betting opened prior to Saturday's games Yeovil were 13/8 and that's the sort of price they should be. I think the markets have massively overreacted to Saturday's results and no way should Yeovil be as big as 5/2 to do the double over Torquay.
    Hampton & Richmond v Dulwich Hamlet
    Dulwich should be doing so much better than they are. They have a strong squad yet for some reason it just isn't happening on the pitch and they have won just one league game since August against Hungerford just before Christmas. They are massively under performing and they are in a relegation battle they ought not to be in. They lost 2-1 in the reverse fixture on Boxing Day and Hampton have really improved in recent weeks having picked up 20 points in their last 10 games. I would make the home side a shade of odds on to win this so they look value at 13/10.
    Hemel Hempstead v St Albans
    I put up St Albans on Saturday and they could easily have won although Wealdstone scored the only goal in the game in the end. That is their only defeat in their last 6 league games and as I mentioned in that preview they have been improving in recent weeks. They ran out comfortable 2-0 winners in the Boxing Day match between these two sides and although Hemel performed better on Saturday against Slough when picking up a point, that did make it 7 league games without a win. I can't have St Albans being as big as they are and I would have them under 2/1 let alone around the 5/2 mark that they are.
    Boston v Kings Lynn
    I took a chance on Kings Lynn on Saturday because they were playing a poor team in Alfreton and in the end their class got them a point, but to me it proved that they are struggling with the injuries and the kick turnaround of games. As I mention above there wasn't much between Boston and Kettering on Saturday and fair play to Boston for putting in a performance after their tough game on Boxing Day. Boston were unlucky to lose at Kings Lynn as well and they nearly held out after playing with 10 men for most of the match. I would make them nearer even money shots to win this given the situation so at 8/5 they look a solid bet.
    Hereford v Kidderminster
    Hereford haven't won in the league since they beat Leamington on October 1st and despite a change in manger Russell Slade has made very little difference to things. He really needs to freshen up the squad as they don't look good enough at the moment. Kidderminster on the other-hand have improved for a change of manager and have been putting in some decent performances of late. In the last 4 games they have beaten Guiesley and Hereford and drawn with Altrincham. Granted they did lose at Brackley on Saturday, but they performed really well especially in the first half. Given Brackley have only lost 1 in their last 10 league games that bodes well for this match as well. It makes no sense to me how they can be as big as 13/5 as they should be at least a point shorter in my view and I make them the best bet of the day.
    Leiston v Needham Market
    I'm annoyed with myself for not putting up Leiston on Boxing Day as they were a big price to win at Lowestoft which they duly did. That backs up my thinking that they are a much improved side and I think they are the right side of value to beat Needham Market. Market have only won once in their last 7 league games (although it was a surprise win against leaders Tamworth) and they drew with a poor St Ives side on Boxing Day. Leiston have only lost once in their last 5 now and that was when they had a chest infection going through the team so I think they can pick up another 3 points here.
    Stratford Town v Rushall Olympic
    How on earth Stratford beat Hednesford when I put up Hednesford I will never know as they have been poor apart from that. In their last 10 league games they have only picked up 1 more point and that was a draw against St Ives. Rushall maybe aren't quite in the form they were at the start of the season, but they have only lost 3 of their last 10 games and they were against Tamworth, Stourbridge and Coalville so 3 of the better sides in the division. They ought to be too good for their hosts here.
    Yeovil 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365
    Hampton & Richmond 2pts @ 13/10 with Bet365
    St Albans 2pts @ 129/50 with Marathon
    Boston 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365
    Kidderminster 2.5pts @ 13/5 with Betfred and William Hill
    Leiston 1pt @ 161/100 with Marathon
    Rushall Olympic 2pts @ 117/100 
  6. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 14th December   
    The FA Trophy steps up another gear this weekend with the National League sides joining the competition, although as usual I suspect some won't want to be staying in the competition for long as they will have other matters on their mind. I am going with 6 bets in the Trophy. In the league's I have 2 singles and a double.
    Atherton Colleries V Barrow
    Barrow are surprise leaders in the National League at the moment and it isn't hard to think that with the focus being firmly on promotion that they will be putting out a weakened side here. The National League sides have to play 4 games in 9 days over Christmas and with such a busy and crucial period coming up it is easy to imagine that Ian Evatt will rest a few key players for a tie like this. That doesn't mean they won't still win, but I am not sure there is a too much depth in the side and that gives the home team a sporting chance of winning. They managed to upset Boston in the previous round and are unbeaten in their last 3 league games so they are coming into this in decent nick. I'd still make Barrow favourites, but at 6/1 if they face a weakened Barrow side then it is worth an investment.
    Dorking v Bromley
    Like Barrow I can see Bromley resting players ahead of the busy Christmas period. They got the final a couple of years ago when losing to Brackley, but they now want to get into the Football League and there is every chance this is going to be their best chance of actually winning the title given how weak and open the league looks. Dorking are having a good season in the National League South and are currently unbeaten in 5. They look over priced and even if Bromley were at full strength I wouldn't rule out them causing an upset anyway.
    Harrogate v Hartlepool
    I know Harrogate's home league form is strong, they are unbeaten in 9 and have won 7 of them, and Hartlepool had to play extra time against Exeter on Tuesday, but I still think Hartlepool are over priced at 31/10 with BetVictor. They should have held on for the win at Woking last week, but maybe Tuesday's night game crept into the players minds. They showed how good they are when beating Exeter and I think they are a better side than Harrogate. Given Dave Challinor won the Trophy with Fylde last season I think there is a strong chance he will want to try and win it again with his new club. Id have preferred if they hadn't gone to extra time on Tuesday, but I still think they are too big a price. If they are this sort of price on Boxing Day for the league version of this fixture then I will be backing them again.
    Maidenhead v Hemel Hempstead Town
    Alan Devonshire has already raised how annoyed he is with the fact the National League are making them play 4 games in 9 days and survival in the National League is probably more important than winning the FA Trophy. Hemel owe us one after a couple of surprise defeats when I put them up in recent weeks and they have lost 3 league games on the bounce. Even so I don't think there is a great deal between these two sides if Hemel play at their best as they have a good side and thus at 18/5 they are a value play here.
    Solihull Moors v Darlington
    Again like Barrow and Bromley I can see Tim Flowers resting some of the 1st team here. One line of theory is that he will want the 1st team to bounce back after losing to Wrexham last Saturday, but I think it would be more sensible to give them a longer break ahead of the busy period to come especially after the mentally tough to take loss to Rotherham in the FA Cup. Darlington proved in their FA Cup run they have a strong team on their day and they are more than capable of causing an upset especially if we see a weaker than usual Solihull side.
    Sutton v Dagenham & Redbridge
    Dagenham are in terrible form going into this tie with the 6-1 win over Aldershot sticking out like a sore thumb as they have lost their other 7 of their last 8 games. Peter Taylor must be feeling the pressure and they must surely be thinking about a change of manager if results don't improve soon. They have a tough game here though against an improving Sutton whose only defeat in their last 6 was against Bromley and they played well in that defeat. They look the best bet of the weekend to me.
    Leiston v Peterborough Sports
    The price available on Leiston is way too big for this game. As I mentioned last week they are a side who are now much better than their league position suggests. They duly bolted up against Redditch and although this is game is tougher they just shouldn't be 5/1 shots to win this. I would still make Sports favourites and they are having a good first season at this level, but the market hasn't caught up with Leiston's improved side and I am hopeful that even if we don't collect here we will get more opportunites to back them in the upcoming fixtures.
    Weston-Super-Mare v Wimborne Town
    Weston have been a bit disappointing this season and they have dropped silly points. They should really be in promotion contention and not near the relegation zone. I like the signing of Vincent Harper in the week as Gloucester had him on loan earlier in the season and I was very impressed with him. He will improve the side for sure and on paper they have a much stronger side than Wimborne. Hopefully they can make it show on the pitch.
    St Ives v Redditch and Swindon Supermarine v Dorchester
    Speaking of Redditch they have to be opposed again. They had quite a few academy players playing against Leiston and they then had another heavy defeat to Evesham in the League Cup. This is the only fixture St Ives will be odds on for all season because they aren't great either and they have only picked up 2 points in their last 9 games. This though is a must win for them and they really ought to be capable of doing so. Dorchester drew 4-4 against Gosport on Tuesday in a crazy game that Gosport were a man down for a lot of. This game is much harder for them as Swindon Supermarine are flying this season and look possible title contenders. This should be a home win and it looks a double well worth having.
    Atherton Colleries 1pt @ 6/1 with BetVictor
    Dorking 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor
    Hartlepool 1pt @ 13/10 BetVictor
    Hemel Hempstead Town 1pt @ 18/5 with BetVictor
    Darlington 1pt @ 4/1 with BetVictor
    Sutton 2pts @ 117/100 with Marathon
    Weston-Super Mare 1pt @ 34/25 with Marathon
    Leiston 1pt @ 5/1 with BetVictor
    St Ives/Swindon Supermarine 2pts double @ 1.94/1 with Marathon
     
  7. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > November 23rd   
    Due to illness not only are the tips up later than usual, but there will be no previews either. At the moment there are 7 FA Trophy bets for Saturday.
    Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365
    Gainsborough 1pt @ 11/2 with Bet365
    Maldon & Tiptree 1pt @ 16/5 with BetVictor
    Dartford 1pt @ 59/25 with Marathon
    Hornchurch 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365
    Bognor Regis 1pt @ 29/10 with BetVictor
    Workington 1pt @ 4/1 with BetVictor, Betfred and William Hill
    Have now had chance to look at the National League and have added 2 bets
    Chorley 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365
    Bromley 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365
     
  8. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > November 18th-21st   
    Saturday went very well and added to the profits from last Tuesday and Wednesday night. There aren't many Non-League games this mid-week and I may add an FA Cup bet or two in that section of the forum, but this is my only Non-League bet.
    Stratford v Hednesford
    I don't really need to say much here given I am opposing Stratford yet again. They were always 2nd best against Nuneaton on Saturday even if it did take them until quite late on before they scored. Hednesford helped us land a double last Tuesday so obviously what I wrote about them then stands here and they had their game called off on Saturday so they have that in their favour as well. I thought the away side would be odds on so any odds against quote is worth taking for me with the biggest currently being 59/50 with Marathon
    Hednesford 3pts @ 59/50 with Marathon
  9. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > November 16th   
    It has been a very profitable week with a money made last weekend and 3 out of the 4 bets winning in mid-week. Saturday I have 7 bets and a little unusually most of those are at Step 3.
    Barnet v Stockport
    After the first few games of the season I added Barnet to the list of ante-post bets as I thought they had looked promising early on. Ever since then they have been pretty poor and it sums the league up that despite that fact they are only 8 points of the top of the table. They have won just twice in their last 10 league games and they were against AFC Fylde and Chorley. The 3 draws in that spell weren't bad points, but if I was having an outright bet now it certainly wouldn't be them. It wouldn't be Stockport either, but after their horrid run of form where they lost 5 on the bounce, a run started with a 3-0 loss at Chorley, they have been in very good form on the whole. They have lost just one of their last 6 league games and are clearly back in decent form. They look over priced to me and I am happy to take a chance at 3/1.
    Bradford Park Avenue v Leamington
    I can't really work out why Bradford are the outsiders here because in my view the prices should be the other way round. With their former manager back in charge they look an improved side. They beat Hereford in his first game back and then I watched them in their 1-0 defeat to Gloucester where I saw enough to think they could well stay up. They then followed that up by conceding 7 without reply in defeats to Southport and Kettering, but they were much better again last week when they were 2-1 up with 7 minutes to go against Kings Lynn and ended up losing 3-2. Kings Lynn are a very good side though and Leamington are not and if they can take that performance into this I think they can pick up 3 points. Leamington have picked up just 1 point in their last 7 games and they have conceded a huge 22 goals in that spell. They even managed to concede 3 in the game they got their point in against Chester. Granted there isn't a great deal in it, but for me Bradford are looking the better side at the moment and with home advantage they certainly should not be over 2/1.
    Brightlingsea Regent v Cray Wanderers (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League)
    I don't get the price here either with Cray looking huge at 17/10. Cray have only lost 2 games in the league all season and they are unbeaten in their last 6. The two defeats were against Folkeston and Enfield so two of the best teams in the division. They go to a Brightlingsea side who have picked just 1 point in their last 8 games and that came against a poor Wingate & Finchley side. That was also the only game they didn't concede at least 2 goals in during the spell without a victory. Cray should be odds on for me and at 17/10 look the best bet of the weekend.
    Cheshunt v Carshalton (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League)
    3rd time in a week I am having a bet on a Carshalton game. In the end they had a bit too much for Frome in the FA Trophy on Tuesday night although it turned into a bit of a goalfest. They have drawn their last 5 league games, but they really ought to be able to beat a struggling Cheshunt side who have lost their last 6 league games conceding 19 in the process. League wise this is the easiest fixture they have had since before the run of draws and they really ought to get back to winning ways in the league.
    East Thurrock United v Leatherhead (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League)
    Granted Leatherhead have had a fairly kind fixture list of late in the league, but they did beat Hornchurch in the run of 5 victories. They look a much improved side and although East Thurrock are a good team and are doing well since their relegation, I think they are over priced at 16/5 to win this. My feeling is there isn't much between these two sides which is why the price is an attractive one from a value perspective.
    Redditch v Hitchin (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
    Redditch have only won two league games this season with both coming over August Bank Holiday weekend. They have had a run of 8 league defeats on the bounce and Hitchin could well make it 9 on Saturday. Hitchin are only 5 points better off than their hosts, but they are in much better form. Bizarrely their only defeat in their last 6 league games was against Leiston, but they then went and defeated Coalville, the only team to have beaten them in their last 10 games. Redditch have only scored 3 goals in their last 8 games as well so there is every chance 1 will be all that is needed to give Hitchin the 3 points.
    Nuneaton v Stratford (BetVictor Southern Premier Central) & Bognor Regis v Merstham (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League)
    More than happy to carry on opposing Stratford as I have done twice of late including last Saturday. Nuneaton are looking pretty good at the moment and have won 6 of their 9 home league games, indeed it is away from home where they have struggled. They ought to win as should Bognor who host Merstham. Bognor looked hopeless earlier in the season, but they have now won 6 of their last 7 league games including a 6-1 hammering of Margate on Tuesday night. Merstham look a poor side this season and have lost 8 of their last 9 games including the last 6. It really should be a home win and to get over 2/1 about the both Nuneaton and Bognor winning looks a good price to me.
    Stockport 1pt @ 61/20 with Marathon
    Bradford Park Avenue 1pt @ 21/10 with William Hill and BetVictor
    Cray Wanderers 3pts @ 17/10 with Bet365
    Carshalton 2pts @ 13/10 with Bet365
    Leatherhead 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365
    Hitchin 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365
    Nuneaton/Bognor Regis 2pts @ 2/1 with Marathon
  10. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > November 12th   
    Maldon & Tiptree v Folkestone Invicta
    It was clear after watching the highlights of Maldon's win over Leyton Orient on Sunday that they are not your average Step 4 Non-League side. They are much better than that and I was really impressed with them. To beat a League 2 side away from home despite having 10 men for some of the 2nd half really takes some doing and there was no fluke about the result. It was being reported that they had only lost one game all season in all competitions, but when I looked it up it turns out that loss was via a penalty shoot out in the League Cup. So technically speaking they have not been beaten in 90 minutes so far this season. They look to have plenty of class throughout the side and if they were in the same league as Folkestone I believe they would be challenging for promotion. The one concern would obviously be how they react after that famous win on Sunday, but given the cup run hasn't got in the way so far I don't see why they wouldn't want to keep the run going. Folkestone did have the weekend off so they will be fresher and they are having a good season themselves having lost just twice in the league. I do think though there is every chance Maldon are the superior side here and I am amazed they are as big as 2/1. If it wasn't for that slight worry about coming off the back of Sunday then I would be even stronger on them, but I really do think the price is very wrong and given home advantage they should be favourites for this tie not Folkestone.
    Maldon & Tiptree 2pts @ 2/1 with BetVictor 
  11. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > November 12th   
    BetVictor Southern League Central Double
    There is every chance that Tamworth and Hednesford will finish 1st and 2nd in this division this season and they look bankers in their respective Tuesday night games. Hednesford travel to bottom side Leiston who hopeless. Granted they had a 3 game spell where they picked up 7 points, but they then went and lost 8-0 to Bromsgrove last weekend. That is the 2nd time they have conceded 8 this season and they have conceded 58 in just 15 league games. In the 11 games they have lost just 2 have been lost by a single goal and Hednesford on the -1 handicap at 13/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power looks a good bet as well as putting in them in a double. Hednesford scored 5 on Saturday in the FA Trophy and they will surely be looking to get around that number here. Tamworth host Alvechurch who are nowhere near the side who got to the play-off final last season. They have won just 3 games in the league and Tamworth should bounce back from their FA Trophy defeat on Saturday. The double pays 1.26/1 with Marathon.
    Carshalton v Frome
    This is an FA Trophy game which obciously couldn't take place on Saturday because Carshalton were in the FA Cup. I put up the home side there and they did well but ultimately found Boston too good. I just wonder if that effort might hinder their performance here. Frome were relegated last season, but are currently top of their division having lost just once in the league. They won on Saturday although to be fair they were playing the bottom tam Barnstaple. That did mean they had a comfortable afternoon though and that might just be a better prep than Carshalton had. At 3/1 with BetVictor they are worth a play.
    Hednesford -1 3pts @ 13/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power
    Hednesford/Tamworth double 3pts @ 1.26/1 with Marathon
    Frome 1pt @ 3/1 with BetVictor
  12. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > November 9th   
    Not that many league fixtures this weekend with the FA Cup and FA Trophy both taking place this weekend however I have a double and a single.
    National League South Double
    The last 2 weekends I have backed Hemel Hempstead and they didn't win either. They should have beaten Eastbourne, but the weather got in the way and then they disappointed against Concord last week. Saturday sees them play a Braintree team who aren't in a good shape at the moment. Their manager left in the week as they don't have any money and he claimed they had the smallest budget in the division. To be fair he is likely to be right given the team was mainly made up of players from leagues below. They started poorly then went on a good spell, but it has gone back to them being poor again. Without a manger it is hard to see them putting in a performance good enough to beat a strong Hemel side. Concord travel to Bath this weekend and I think they will go back to losing ways. As I mentioned last week Concord had a point to prove against Hemel and although I thought Hemel wouldn't want to lose, Concord excelled themselves. Things will be very different at a Bath side who are in good form at the moment and looked good when beating Bath last weekend. The double pays 2.2/1 with Marathon
    Stratford Town v Coalville
    Into Step 3 and the BetVictor Southern Premier Central and I am rather keen on Coalville here. Their last league on the 21st October saw them lose their first league game of the season to Hitchin, but they obviously have been playing well and beat Bromsgrove Sporting in the league cup on Tuesday night. This looks a great chance to pick up 3 points against a struggling Stratford Town side. I tipped Tamworth to beat them last month and they lost 3-1. Then in their next league game last Saturday they lost 6-0 to Peterborough Sports. Their only two wins in their last 9 league games came against Leiston and Alvechurch so that doesn't say much. They did draw against them in the reverse fixture in mid September, but Stratford look a lot weaker now and Coalville should take advantage. It seems quite a few bookies have missed the fact this game is on and I have only seen Marathon and Bet365 with odds, but the away side look a good bet.
    Bath/Hemel Hempstead 2pts double @ 2.2/1 with Marathon
    Coalville 2.5pts @ 139/100 with Marathon
  13. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in FA Cup Predictions > Nov 8th - 12th   
    I never understand why tipsters say they won't bet on the FA Cup. I love betting on the FA Cup as it offers the chance to land some lumpy prices as I have done over the years. The 1st Round is my favourite weekend of the season and hopefully I can make it a profitable one. I have 7 singles and a 5 team acca across the weekend.
    Dulwich Hamlet v Carlisle
    Gloucester City might be my main team, but I have been going to Dulwich games for around 10 years now. At that point they were lucky to get 300 people through the turnstiles and now you can sometimes add a 0 on to that figure. This season alone they are averaging nearly 2000 for their league games and not surprisingly Friday night's match is a sell out. Fortunately I have been able to get hold of a ticket so will be there hopefully to witness a upset and Dulwich's first ever visit to the 2nd round. I think there is a fair chance that I might. On the face of it backing a team who haven't won a league game since August 24th two divisions below their opponents might not be wise, but Dulwich are nowhere near as bad as that stat suggests. I put them up in the last round when they beat Havant who are the best team in their division so that was no mean feat. Carlisle come into this having only won 2 away games in the league all season and they were both against teams below them in the table. Their win against Macclesfield last week was their first in 7 and given the troubles with them at the moment that is hardly proof they are in good form again. They will not fancy this one bit. Champion Hill is very compact so the crowd will be very close to the action add into the fact that the game is on the BBC so the Carlisle players will know the pressure is on them. Gavin Rose has always set Dulwich up to play football the right way and if they can be clinical in front of goal I am certain they will get the chances to win the game. I think 16/5 (Bet365 and Betfair) is just on the right side of value and hopefully they can get the weekend off to a profitable start.
    Carshalton v Boston
    An all Non-League tie here with BetVictor Isthmian Premier Carshalton hosting Natonal League North side Boston. I like the chances of there being an upset here as Carshalton have been hard to beat all season. They have lost just 3 times in the league and only one of those have come in their last 10 although they have drawn their last 5. They have already caused an upset in the previous round having beaten Dagenham & Redbridge so hosting a team from the level below should hold no fears for them. Boston have struggled on their travels in the league and they have only beaten Kettering and AFC Telford away from home. That Telford game was last week, but they clearly have issues away from home given they are unbeaten at home. I think at over 2/1 the home side are value to cause an upset.
    Stourbridge v Eastleigh
    I opposed Eastleigh last week given the amount of injuries they had and the fact Harrogate were in decent form, but Harrogate had a bit of a stinker and gifted them 3 of their 4 goals. Even though Stourbridge are two levels below it actually wouldn't surprise me if they give them a harder game than they had last week. Also Eastleigh have looked pretty poor on the road at times this season. Stourbridge have only played 11 league games so far given their cup run and they have lost just twice. Chances are they will be fighting it out for promotion again this season and their current position of 11th is a bit misleading. I think this is one game which will be much closer than the odds and leagues positions suggest.
    Walsall v Darlington
    The biggest price selection is Darlington and obviously backing a National League North side to win at a League 2 side should be a big price, but given Walsall's form at the moment Darlington might just be capable of causing an upset. They have lost 6 games on the bounce now and will be coming into this low on confidence. It was a bit disappointing Darlington couldn't beat a 10 man Hereford last week, but it did continue the unbeaten run and they are better than their league position suggests. A risky bet for sure, but I do think they are overpriced to win the game.
    Gateshead v Oldham
    Gateshead let me down last Saturday when under performing against Guiseley last week. They hadn't conceded at home for over nine hours and then duly defended badly and let in 3 in one game. They bounced straight back on Tuesday though beating Curzon 3-0. Granted Oldham are going to be at a very different level from Curzon, but they are coming into this game in shocking form and they clearly are one of the worst teams in League 2. They have only won once away all season and in their last 10 games they have only beaten Walsall and Morecombe which doesn't say an awful lot. As long as Gateshead don't defend like they did last week, and the evidence suggests that was a one off, then they have a real chance of causing an upset here in my view.
    Macclesfield v Kingstonian
    This game might not even go ahead because of the players strike and it is no surprise that some bookies have stopped betting on the game and that the price of the away side has come in from around 8/1. Kingstonian were one of my ante-post bets in their league this season and they have been frustrating as they haven't won as many matches as they ought to have done, but on their day they are a good side and given all that is going on at Macclesfield it looks a sporting play. Even if the players do get paid they aren't going to be in a good place and if they don't then there must be a chance that Macclesfield play the youth team just to get the game on. If that happens then that Kingstonian price will come in plenty more.
    Wrexham v Rochdale
    Rochdale are in the bottom half of League 1 and have lost their last 3 games, but I think they can beat Wrexham here. 2 of those defeats were against top of the table Ipswich and 4th place Oxford. I opposed Wrexham last week, but they beat Bromley thanks to a cracking goal and I do think Wrexham will improve under Dean Keates, but they still have a little way to go and I think they will struggle to beat a League 1 side at the moment. I am surprised that Rochdale are on the drift and they look a good price at odds against.
    FA Cup Acca
    I like 5 teams at odds on to win over the weekend. Solihull travel to Oxford City and they ought to have too much for them. Chorley have found life a struggle in the National League and they have started leaking goals again after keeping a few clean sheets. They travel to Mansfield and it would be a surprise if they could get anything out of it. Rotherham's away form is much better than their home form and they can prove to be too strong at Maidenhead. On Sunday Northampton should be more than capable of beating Chippenham and in one of the live games I can see Oxford United easily beating Hayes & Yeading. As an aside it wasn't that long ago I went to watch that game as a league match and now their are 4 levels between them!
    Dulwich Hamlet 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365 and Betfair
    Carshalton 1pt @ 21/10 with Marathon
    Stourbridge 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair
    Darlington 1pt @ 17/2 with Bet365
    Gateshead 1pt @ 100/30 with Bet365
    Kingstonian 1pt @ 21/4 with Bet365
    Rochdale 2pts @ 13/10 with Betway
    Solihull/Mansfield/Northampton/Oxford United/Rotherham 1pt acca @ 6.3/1 with Marathon
  14. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 26th   
    A good night on Tuesday with Royston winning 4-0 at 3/1 and the Nap's Tamworth also landing the spoils. With the FA Trophy this weekend the only league games are in the 3 National League's and I have 6 bets.
    Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde
    I am not surprised Fylde made a change of manager a couple of weeks ago as things just haven't been right there this season after their play-off Final defeat in May. The thing is though they have a good squad that should be challenging at the right end of the table and I am going to take a chance on them on Saturday on the back of a hammering of Peterborough Sports on Saturday in the FA Cup. Danny Rowe hasn't done a great deal so far this season, but he scored a hat-trick on Saturday and that might well see him kick on now and start scoring goals in the league. To be fair to Boreham Wood they have been in decent nick winning 3 of their last 4 games, but Fylde for me are the better team and if Saturday has given them a massive confidence boost then I think they can win this.
    Sutton United v Ebbsfleet United
    Taking a bit of a flyer here as Ebbsfleet are bottom and have only won two league games, but they do seem to have improved since sacking Gary Hill. They lost 2-1 against Maidenhead in their only league game since, but it was an improved performance and then they beat Woking in a replay in the FA Cup on Tuesday night. The other reason for thinking they could get 3 points here is the fact Sutton are in poor form as well. In their last 10 games they have only picked up 1 more point than Ebbsfleet and they then got hammered 5-2 in their FA Cup replay on Tuesday night at Billericay. Granted they were a bit unlucky to not win the first game given it need a late goal from the keeper to send it to a replay, but Tuesday was especially poor. Coming off the back of the win Ebbsfleet might just give them edge here and I think they are worth taking a chance with.
    Woking v Eastleigh
    Given Woking haven't won since the final day of August it is amazing they are still as high in the table as they are, but they have picked up 6 draws in their following 9 games which has helped. Obviously that means the draw is a slight worry and if Eastleigh perform like they did when they lost at Fylde on BT Sport a month ago then they wont be winning this, but that is their only defeat away from home in their last 5 away league games. That loss is their only defeat in their last 9 away games as well. They have drawn half of the other 8 and they did cost me last week when only drawing at Welling, but I think they are over priced still to win the game. As mentioned above Woking lost their replay whereas Eastleigh had little trouble in getting past Welling at the 2nd attempt.
    Curzon Ashton v Kettering
    I took on Curzon in their last game and Blyth beat them 1-0 and that made it just one point in their last 9 league games now. They look the worst side in the division at the moment and although it might seem odd to want to back the bottom side to beat them that is exactly what I am doing. Kettering aren't great either, but getting Paul Cox in as manager is a huge coup given his track record and I am slightly surprised he has wanted to take on the job. This looks the perfect first game for him and the only way it could have been better is if it was a home tie. Even without Cox I would make these two the same sort of price so add Cox into the mix and the over 2/1 quotes look on the big side in my view
    Farsley Celtic v Brackley
    Obviously Farsley cost us on Tuesday night, but I did point out that their run of wins wasn't as good once you dug deeper than the bare facts suggested. They offered little against Kidderminster and although arriving to the ground late would not have helped, they couldn't cope with an improved Kidderminster side. Brackley are having another good season and performed with great credit in the FA Cup against Hartlepool last weekend despite losing 1-0. They have only won 2 of their 7 away league games this season and they came against Kidderminster (who had lost every home game at the time) and Curzon so it doesn't say a great deal. That is the concern for me, but they are a better side than Celtic so hopefully that will win the day. They have continued to be well backed since I put them up and clearly the Asian punters agree with me on this one, but I wouldn't want to chase the price down much more than it is as I think the value has almost gone now.
    Hemel Hempstead v Eastbourne Borough/Wealdstone v Tonbridge Angels
    I most admit Hemel are getting close to a price I would just have a single bet on as they bafflingly continue to drift. The only game Hemel have lost at home in the league this season was to Wealdstone and they had a few injuries at the time which didn't help matters. They are looking very strong this season and did very well to overcome Havant late on in their last game a couple of weeks ago. This week Eastbourne announced that they needed £40k desperately and that meant they let their manager go. One player has already left because of a need to slash the wage budget and they have only won 2 of their last 10 games. For me Hemel should be at least 4/6 so the 10/11 is big. Wealdstone lost in an FA Cup replay to Maidenhead, but they did well in the two games and were in front in the first game. The only game they haven't won in their last 10 league games was a 4-1 defeat to Havant and Tonbridge are nowhere near that level. Tonbridge did surprisingly beat Braintree 5-1 2 games ago, but the other 4 of their last 5 games have all been defeats. Wealdstone do look home bankers.
    AFC Fylde 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365
    Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 47/20 with Marathon
    Eastleigh 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365 and Betfred
    Kettering 1pt @ 58/25 with Marathon
    Brackley 1pt @ 2/1 with BetVictor (price now gone 19/10 best currently)
    Hemel/Wealdstone 2pts double @ 1.57/1 with Marathon
  15. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 22nd   
    A small profit on Saturday thanks to Dulwich, Harrogate and Hartlepool. Was nearly so much better with 3 of the other bets drawing but certainly happy to keep things ticking over. Onto tonight and I have 4 bets.
    Kidderminster v Farsley Celtic
    The home side usually get backed from the Asian punters and this has happened yet again with this match tonight. Earlier this morning Farsley themselves had been backed into 6/5 and then the market has made a massive shift towards Kiddie and they are as short as evens now. The reason the Asian market punters love Kiddie is I think because they always seem to produce good stats on the shots both for and against side of things. This of course though doesn't actually mean a great deal in my view when it comes to results on the pitch especially at this level. They have only managed 4 wins in the league this season and have been dumped out of the FA Cup by lower league opposition. I watch a lot of Step 2 football in the flesh and I can be pretty certain that the stats that are produced actually have little baring on what the quality of the shots during the game actually are. Kiddie fans have said how poor they have been and their league position certainly backs that up. The other key thing for me here is the fact they haven't played a game of football since September 28th. As Stafford knocked them out of the FA Cup they didn't have a game for 2 of those Saturday's and then they missed the other because of international call-ups. I used to think that time off like that was helpful at this stage of the season, but actually I am not sure it is anymore. The bets I have had on the back of these sort of breaks have usually lost because in actual fact the team are ring rusty having not kicked a ball in anger for so long. They did beat Altrincham in their last home league game on September 14th, but then Altrincham are yet to win away from home this season and are below Kiddie in the table. They have finally been taken over so there should be more positivity around the club and they have made one new signing so far. I suspect more will follow, but it will take time to overhaul a disappointing squad. Celtic have done superbly well so far after gaining promotion last season and have won 5 games on the bounce. Now I do have to add here that they have had a pretty kind fixture list. They have beaten Bradford Park Avenue, Kettering, Leamington, Curzon and then on Saturday Alfreton. That isn't a great bunch apart from Alfreton, but even they aren't in the best of form right now. However it does show they are scoring goals for fun as they have scored 15 goals in that time and they have scored in their last 9 league games. Obviously they won't be as fresh as the home side as they played on Saturday, but they will be match fit which could be the bigger factor. At 23/10 Celtic have to be the play as yet again Kiddie are way too short in the betting.
    AFC Rushden & Diamonds v Banbury
    The home side cost us on Saturday, but I am going to oppose them again here. Banbury have had a superb season so far and have only lost 1 of their last 9 games. They were involved in a thriller on Saturday against Biggleswade which they won 3-2 in injury time and I think they can back that up with a win here.
    St Ives Town v Royston Town
    I am a bit concerned about how the away side will react to blowing a good chance of getting to the First Round of the FA Cup on Saturday, but this does look a good game for them to try and bounce back in and they look way over priced. St Ives have got a lot of injured players and it looks doubtful about them getting any back for tonight. Last Tuesday they drew 4-4 with bottom side Leiston in a game described as one neither team deserved to win. They then lost 1-0 to an Alvechurch side who hadn't won a league game since August and they performed poorly again. Granted Royston haven't won in 4 league games but the two defeats were against Tamworth and Hednesford so they weren't expected to win either of them. I just can't have them as 3/1 shots to win this at all and that is a huge price.
    Stratford Town v Tamworth
    The home side look in a right mess at the moment and they have already used over 30 players this season. They sacked their manager a couple of weeks ago and they were forced to cut the budget as well as another 8 players left the team. It has been 10 days since they played a competitive game which they lost 3-0 Lowestoft which is their only win in 7 games and they have lost the other 6. Tamworth were my main bets for the title and they are nicely placed in 3rd after 11 games. They did lose to Darlington in the FA Cup at the weekend, but that was obviously much tougher than this and they will be hoping to get back to winning ways tonight. I think they ought to be odds on to win this so Betway's 7/5 looks too big.
    Farsely Celtic 2pts @ 23/10 with Bet365
    Banbury 1pt @ 44/25 with Marathon
    Royston 2pts @ 3/1 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betway
    Tamworth 2.5pts @ 7/5 with Betway
  16. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 19th   
    It is all about the FA Cup this weekend as Non-League teams will be looking to get into the 1st Round and who knows one of them might get the bye into the 2nd Round. I have 7 bets in the FA Cup although I also have one bet in the BetVictor Southern Premier League Central.
    Chorley v Spennymoor
    This two played in the play-off final last season and Spennymoor lost out in a penalty shootout. Spennymoor have suffered from a hangover from that as I have mentioned before, but they certainly seem to be improving and I think they have a chance of causing an upset here. Chorley keep drawing in the league and are also great at keeping clean sheets. In the league it is clearly all about getting a point first and then if they can sneak 3 then great. It is clearly effective although getting points won't keep them up. Given this is a cup tie I can't believe they are going to be so defensively here especially as they won't really want a replay. Spennymoor are good enough to pick them off and I am sure they will want to get back for the play-off heartache. The 5/2 with Bet365 is appealing.
    Halifax v Harrogate
    Halifax cost us last week when they were playing a tired Boreham Wood side, but still failed to break them down. That made it 3 games now that they have failed to score at home and given Harrogate's form has seen a big improvement they look value at Betway's 13/5 to reach the 1st Round. Harrogate are unbeaten in 7 games now and got a great win at Yeovil last Saturday. They frustrated their hosts and I can imagine they will be capable of doing the same here and I just don't think there is as big a gap as the betting suggests their is.
    Havant & Waterlooville v Dulwich Hamlet
    Havant should really be doing better than they are in the league and it is their home form that has been letting them down. They have only won 1 of their last 5 home league games and have lost their last two. I think that gives Dulwich a chance here especially as they are performing better on their travels at the moment and I just can't make them as big as the 4/1 Bet365 have made them.
    Remaining previews will be brief.
    Maidenhead v Wealdstone
    Wealdstone having a superb season having only failed to win 2 games and they must fancy their chances of causing an upset here. They had only picked up 2 points in their previous 8 games before beating Ebbsfleet last week and Wealdstone will be a tougher test in my view.
    Hartlepool v Brackley
    Surprised the home side are odds on here. I thought Hignett was unlucky to lose his job, but they certainly showed their class winning 3-0 in their first game since his sacking. They are a good side and given Brackley's away form has not been strong this season I think they can reach the first round here.
    Welling v Eastleigh
    Eastleigh are in pretty good form and have only lost one of their last nine games. Welling have had two very easy draws to get to this stage and they have only won one of their last 6 games and that was against bottom of the table Hungerford. The away side are the better team and odds against looks big to me.
    Oxford City v Margate
    Margate are frustrating me given they were one of their ante-post tips and they aren't quite consistent enough so far. However on their day they are a good side and with their hosts only having won 2 games in the league all season there is a real chance of an upset here for me.
    Rushall Olympic v AFC Rushden & Diamonds
    Rushden haven't won in 7 games now. They drew 1-1 for 4 games on the bounce and then lost 8-2 and 3-0 twice so that is 14 goals conceded in their last 3 games. Rushall are having a little blip after a superb start to the season having lost their last two, but this looks a good opportunity to get back to winning ways.
    Spennymoor 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365
    Harrogate 1pt @ 13/5 with Betway
    Dulwich Hamlet 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365
    Wealdstone 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365 and Betway
    Hartlepool 2pts @ 6/5 with Marathon
    Eastleigh 2pts @ 111/100 with Marathon
    Margate 1pt @ 71/20 with Marathon
    Rushall Olympic 2.5pts @ 53/50 with Marathon
  17. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 12th   
    I have had tough spells in the past and given this one has only lasted 2 match days it is not exactly the longest, but this week has been really tough. Saturday wasn't great and the 3pt Yeovil bet losing was annoying, but what happened on Monday and Tuesday was just awful. Gloucester should have won that game with ease in the circumstances, but they massively under performed and obviously personally that defeat was hard to take. Then for Dover to go and somehow lose 4-0 to Aldershot on the Tuesday night was probably an even freakier result. I have now tipped up Dover in their only 2 games they have failed to win on the road and they have conceded 7 times in those two matches. Granted it was only a point on Hartlepool on Wednesday night, but to see them defend as badly as they did for the 2 Stockport goals was pretty hard to take as it was really bad stuff. Obviously if you were a new follower after the two really good days the week before then you might be wondering what all the fuss is about and you will be a fair few quid down. I can make no guarantees about making a profit, but hopefully come April I will still be in profit and who knows we might get a day like the final day of last season again! 
    Anyway onto Saturday and I have 6 bets.
    Halifax v Boreham Wood
    Chorley turned up to Halifax on Tuesday night and didn't even try to win the game and Halifax just couldn't break them down. Fair play to Chorley because they keep drawing games so in some ways it was no disrespect to only get a point against them rather than all 3. I do think though they can get straight back to winning ways against a Boreham Wood side who will have done plenty of travelling this week. They have been in decent nick only losing 2 of their last 7 games, but one of those was when they had to go all the way to Barrow on Tuesday night and they lost 3-1 to the in form home side. It is pretty nasty of the fixture list to send them to Barrow on a Tuesday and then Halifax on the Saturday especially when Halifax played at home on Tuesday night. Halifax have got the best defence in the league which is key given Tshimanga and Marsh have both score 8 goals for Wood this season. Keep them quiet and the chances are you will win the game and hopefully Halifax will do just that. I would have them odds on myself so 13/10 looks a big price.
    AFC Telford v York City
    York are still unbeaten which is pretty impressive after 12 games and hopefully they will be making it 13 games unbeaten after this one. They are already looking like they will be hard to beat for the title and they ought to have too much for a Telford side who have been really struggling of late. They lost to Blyth in their last league game and were also dumped out of the FA Cup 3-0 to Nantwich from the league below. They have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 4 home games as well and you would expect a side like York to be able to punish them on that front as well. Again I think York should be odds on shorts so 59/50 makes plenty of appeal.
    Curzon Ashton v Blyth Spartans
    Blyth are obviously risky because they haven't been great so far this season, but they have shown signs of improvement and they look way over priced to beat a badly out of form Curzon side who are in worse form. Curzon have not won a game since August 12th and not only that they have only picked up 1 point in the league since then and that was when they drew with Stalybridge on Bank Holiday Monday which stopped me from getting a very profitable full house on that day! Blyth know they can beat Curzon as they beat them in a FA Cup replay last month. As mentioned above Blyth won their last league game against Telford and although they lost to Hednesford in the FA Cup last Saturday they still look in better shape than their hosts at the moment. I would probably have them around the 7/4 mark and the 29/10 they actually are is way over the odds.
    Whitby v Warrington
    I am going to try and get some of the money back lost on Monday by taking on Whitby again. We know they were down to the barebones for Monday and although getting time off work won't be an issue here they still have injuries to deal with. The players were out on their feet on Monday after about 60 minutes and Gloucester were well on top despite having just 10 men and I even get the feeling City might have won the tie if they had 11 men on the pitch. Taken that into account I suspect there will be some tired Whitby legs on Saturday. Also given they have a great chance of getting to the 1st Round of the FA Cup next Saturday and I would imagine they will have more than one eye on that tie against Stourbridge. Warrington are more than good enough to take advantage and have yet to loose on their travels in the league this season. Granted they haven't won in 4, but they have drawn 3 of those games and although South Shields already look away and gone they should be in the play-offs. All things considered I think they are over priced for this and are well worth backing.
    Hartley Whitney v Walton Casuals
    The home side have yet to win at home in the league this season and hopefully that will continue to be the case here. They have only won twice and they have come against Dorchester who are below them in the table and Met Police who are one place above them. Walton Casuals lost their first 5 games, but have followed that up with 4 straight wins so come here in fine form and I fancy them to make it 5 losses and 5 victories.
    Harrow v Truro 
    Truro are having a cracking season after relegation having lost just twice in 10 games and have won 7 of them as well. They look possible title contenders and I think they can get another 3 points here. Harrow started the season well enough and were unbeaten after 5 games, but they have lost 3 of their last 4 and I suspect they are going to find their place in the table being the bottom half come April. I think Truro are well worth a bet as they are the better side of the two and hopefully will go and prove that on the pitch.
    Oxford City v Dartford
    This is an extra bet after I put the initial 6 bets up. It was announced on Thursday evening that Steve King was the new manager at Dartford and I think that news makes them worth a bet on Saturday. We usually see an improved performance from teams who have a new manager and I am a huge fan of Steve King. His track record especially at this level is hugely impressive and as much as fans of rival clubs have always wanted to slag him off I have never really understood why given how good he is. He nearly saved Whitehawk from relegation 2 seasons ago given from memory I don't think they had even won a game when he joined, they certainly were detached at the bottom of the table. He then went to Welling and got them to finish 3rd despite the fact they cut the wage budget during the season and they went on to lost to Woking in the play-off final. I'm not surprised he wasn't out of work for long and I expect him to get an under performing Dartford rising up the table. Oxford City have won three games at home this season and two of them were against Hampton & Richmond with the other against North Leigh in the FA Cup. They have drawn against Weymouth and Billericay in their last two home league games which are fair efforts, but I think we could see a big performance from Dartford this weekend and at 15/8 I am willing to back them.
    Halifax 3pts @ 13/10 with William Hill
    York 2.5pts @ 59/50 with Marathon
    Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 29/10 with Marathon
    Warrington 1pt @ 9/4 with BetVictor
    Walton Casuals 1pt @ 153/100 with Marathon
    Truro 1pt @ 7/5 with Marathon
    Dartford 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365
  18. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > September 7th   
    A small loss on Tuesday night which would have seen a decent profit if Braintree had held on to their 2-1 lead against 10 men. The FA Cup means we only have the 3 National League's to focus on this weekend and I have 4 bets.
    Aldershot v Barrow
    This match nearly didn't make the cut, but in the end I do think Aldershot are worthy of a bet on Saturday. They haven't won at home yet, but only just lost to Fylde and Bromley and then have picked up points against Halifax and Sutton. Given the way Halifax are playing that was an especially good point. This looks a reasonable opportunity to pick up 3 points at home for the first time this season as Barrow are struggling this term especially on the road where they have only picked up a point. To be fair they have had some tough away games having gone to Wrexham, Stockport and Woking and they have only lost by 1 goal on each occasion. That nearly put me off Aldershot, but I don't think there is a great deal between these two sides and Aldershot had the Tuesday off which will have helped as well. I would have them around 11/8 so the fact they have drifted to 179/100 with Marathon makes them a bet for me.
    Boreham Wood v Dover
    I am really keen on Dover here and they look the best bet of the weekend for me. I mentioned on Bank Holiday Monday that Boreham Wood haven't won at home since January and they duly lost to Ebbsfleet albeit they did have 10 men for most of the game. They then went to Chorley and won 3-1 in the live game, but Chorley pretty much gifted them the game so I don't think it said much about them and they then went and lost at Eastleigh on Tuesday night. Dover are having a good season and they have won all 4 away games so far. They drew at home to Ebbsfleet on Tuesday but they should have won and they look potential play-off contenders this season. To me this game has been priced up if the teams are of similar ability, but I would make Dover clear favourites for this and the 17/10 with Bet365 is well worth taking in my view.
    Chorley v Stockport
    As I mentioned above and on Tuesday night, Chorley look a long way short of this level at the moment and it is hard to see them getting anything out of this game. These two sides battled it out for the National League North title last year and Chorley did beat Stockport late on although they did lose the title to them in the end. This season though the two teams look miles apart. Stockport weren't great in their opening day defeat to Maidenhead, but they have done nothing but improve since and have lost just once since. They have had two good wins against Wrexham and AFC Fylde in their last two matches and they really should be beating Chorley on everything both teams have done this season. Stockport have scored in every game bar the Maidenhead one and given how leaky Chorley's defence is they should surely by adding to their goal tally here. I would make them odds on so the 6/5 with William Hill and Betway is well worth taking.
    Gloucester City v Darlington
    I have written on here this season about my own teams superb away from in recent seasons especially under their current manager although since they beat Kidderminster they have lost their next 3 away games. I do think they are extenuating circumstances though as all those have been on a Tuesday or Bank Holiday Monday when the players have come on the back of a tough home game. Blowing a 2 goal lead at AFC Telford wasn't great on Tuesday night, but there is cause for thinking they are a big price on Saturday. Firstly their home performances have been strong this season despite the fact they have only won one. They played well with 10 and then 9 men against Hereford, drew with Altrincham, beat Boston 3-0 and then pushed York close last week when leading 2-1 at one stage. On paper this is their easiest game so far at home and Darlington come to Evesham struggling for fit and available players. They have only managed to pick up 1 point away from home so far this season and beating bottom of the table Blyth 2-1 on Wednesday night didn't say a lot. I would make Gloucester favourites for this and I really can't understand why they have drifted out to 2/1 with Bet365.
    Alderhshot 1pt @ 179/100 with Marathon
    Dover 3pts @ 17/10 with Bet365
    Stockport 2.5pts @ 6/5 with William Hill and Betway
    Gloucester City 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365
  19. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > September 2nd-4th   
    It was a fantastic end to August on Saturday which came on the back of a great Bank Holiday Monday and meant it was a good solid profit for the first month of the season. The games keep coming though and we basically have a full fixture list in the 3 National Leagues over the next 3 days as well as the BetVictor Northern Premier in action. I have 6 bets which all come on Tuesday.
    Previews to follow
    Barrow v Hartlepool
    The Barrow manager continues to be frustrated by his side as again on Saturday they made costly mistakes as they lost 3-2 to Woking. They have only managed two wins so far this season and one of those was in the terrible game against Yeovil which was live on BT. Prior to last Monday I was beginning to think I had made a mistake by putting up Hartlepool ante-post, but then they won against Wrexham and Torquay and that now sees them just 2 points off the play-off places. They looked good in both wins and they seem to be clicking now. To be fair they have only lost one game since they lost their first two and that was 3-2 against Bromley who are yet to lose. Quite how they failed to score against a Chorley side who are leaking goals for fun I don't know as the other four games in their last five they have scored at least two. With Barrow struggling to keep clean sheets they should get plenty of chances to score a couple here. It is hard to see why they should be over 2/1 to gain another 3 points and they are worth backing.
    Chesterfield v Hailfax
    Those who were reading my previews last season will know backing Chesterfield to draw was a very profitable system for a while and amazingly they have become the draw specialists this season drawing 5 of their 8 games so far. It would also seem we are looking at a scoring draw as only once have both teams not scored in Chesterfield games this term. Halifax have really surprised me, but what a job Peter Wild has done given he came in just before the season started. They have won 6 of their 8 and only drawn 1 and are 14 points ahead of their hosts at the moment. I do think the table is lying though as Chesterfield aren't as bad as their league position suggests. I do think though a draw is a good possibility again and looks the value play here.
    Harrogate v Chorley
    As I mention above I have no idea how Chorley kept out Hartlepool because in their other 4 games in their last 5 they have conceded 18 goals! It was easy to see why watching them against Boreham Wood on Saturday as they looked clueless at times. The team just doesn't look up to this level and hopefully Harrogate can also put a few past them. Harrogate have had a frustrating season so far having won just two of their opening eight games. They weren't great against Dover on Saturday, but this does look like a good opportunity to get back to winning ways and they were unlucky not to take 3 points against Fylde last Monday. If Chorley continue to defend as badly as they have then Harrogate should cover the -1 handicap.
    Notts County v Solihull Moors
    I am going to go with Notts County again here. On the face of it losing 3-1 to Yeovil on Saturday was a poor effort, but that doesn't tell the whole story as they ought to have won. Manager Neil Ardley after the game even said the fans will go away wondering how we didn't win the game. I think they have a good chance of making amends here as Solihull seem to have forgotten how to defend. They let in two very poor goals against Eastleigh and it was the case again against Halifax on Saturday. County should get chances and although they didn't convert them on Saturday they have only failed to score in their opening game this season. They look a fair price to bounce straight back with a win.
    Concord v Braintree
    Two sides here that have surprised me with their starts as I thought both would struggle this season. That might still end up being the case, but both new managers will be very happy with their starts. I think the bookies have priced the game up wrong though and the 7/2 on the away side is a massive price. Concord won their first 3 games but have mainly struggled since as they picked up just 1 point from their next 4 before having a comfortable win over Welling on Saturday. It might have been a return to form, but it seems Welling were poor so they might not have had to work that hard to win the game. Braintree have a young team and that showed when they lost their first 3 games, but they have been really impressive since winning 4 of their next 5 games scoring 14 goals in the process. The other thing I like is that on Monday and on Saturday they scored late goals to win the games so they clearly don't give up. That's obviously a great trait for any team to have and they come into this Essex derby in the better form for me and the prices should be much closer together.
    Witton Albion v Hyde
    Hyde won for us on Saturday when thrashing Stafford 4-0 and I think they can make it 5 wins on the bounce on Tuesday night. As I mentioned in Saturday's preview Hyde look like they are going to be promotion contenders this season based on their impressive start to the season. Witton have only lost 1 of their first 4 league games, but they have had a reasonably kind start to the season and their defeat came against a good Nantwich side which suggests to me Hyde will have too much for them.
     
    Hartlepool 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365
    Chesterfield v Halifax draw 1pt @ 63/25 with Marathon
    Harrogate -1 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365
    Notts County 1pt @ 17/10 with BetVictor
    Braintree 2pts @ 7/2 with Bet365
    Hyde 1pt @ 33/20 with Marathon
  20. Like
    salmonman got a reaction from Darran in Non-League Predictions > August 31st   
    Missed last weekends tips for the first time in months so typical you win loads haha. But im happy you have continued your form this weekend, your ability to find value odds is amazing, very much appreciated.?
  21. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > August 26th   
    Saturday was one of those frustrating days which looked like being a really good day at one point and then ended up showing a loss, albeit small, despite only one team losing. I have 6 bets on Monday although I am not going crazy because it is set to be another very hot afternoon coming on the back of a very hot afternoon on Saturday and that is going to be very tough on the players. I think it is going to make what is already a tough turn around even tougher. It is my birthday so hopefully a profit can be made.
    Boreham Wood v Ebbsfleet
    Two sides with only 1 win between them and I doubt there is a great deal between the two sides which make the away team a bet at 29/10. Boreham Wood have usually been very strong at home since they got promoted, but they haven't won a home game since January and with Ebbsfleet improving (they could have beaten Notts County in the end on Saturday), they look a sporting play here.
    Dover v Woking
    Have I got Woking massively wrong? Having put them up to be relegated I am amazed they are top of the table after 6 games, but then they had a similar start in 2017 when I put them up to go down and they did end up being relegated so who knows! Beating Solihull 2-0 was a superb effort on the back of beating Fylde 4-1. Dover have had a good start as well, but they have lost 2 of their 3 home games and Woking have looked especially good away from home. They just shouldn't be 5/2 shots to win this game.
    Blyth Spartans v Guiseley
    Blyth's woeful start to the season continued on Saturday as they drew 0-0 with Bradford Park Avenue who have looked even worse than Blyth have. Guiseley have already scored 14 goals this season and must fancy their chances of adding to that tally here. I think they should be nearer even money than the 141/100 that they are.
    Curzon Ashton v Spennymoor
    I can't believe how much Spennymoor have struggled so far and one 1 point in 4 games is not a good return for last season's beaten play-off finalists. They will surely turn it around sooner rather than later though and I think it could be on Monday as they face a Curzon side who had a nightmare trip to Kings Lynn on Saturday and then were well beaten. On paper Spennymoor are the better side and they just shouldn't be 9/4 shots.
    Braintree v Dorking
    Both sides lost on Saturday, but I thought Dorking's loss to Hampton was worse and Braintree seem to be gelling at last. Prior to Braintree's 2-1 defeat to Dartford on Saturday they had beaten St Albans 3-0 and Eastbourne 5-0. Dorking's only point in their last 3 games came in a draw against St Albans and they might not add to that here. Braintree certainly look over priced at 17/10.
    Kingstonian v Bishops Stortford
    Not been a great start to the season by the home side although they were unbeaten before Hornchurch beat them on Saturday. The main reason for tipping Stortford up though is the fact they didn't have a game on Saturday and given the conditions that could well have a big part to play in this game and for that reason at 29/10 they look a sporting play and have managed to win a game this season unlike their hosts.
    Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 29/10 with Bet365
    Woking 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365
    Guiseley 1pt  @ 141/100 with Marathon
    Spennymoor 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365
    Braintree 1pt @ 17/10 with Marathon
    Bishops Stortford 1pt @ 29/10 with BetVictor
  22. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > August 31st   
    Superb day on Monday with only 5/6 winners at some decent prices as well. If only Spennymoor could have won we would have been looking at another hefty payout. Just to remind people that I always suggest they do singles, but I always cover the acca and the one below for 0.5pts every match day and the five fold on Monday has pretty much paid for a whole season of those bets. It has been a bit of a rollercoaster though this month so hopefully we can end August on a high on Saturday where I have 7 bets across 5 leagues.
    Torquay v Hartlepool
    Hartlepool were one of my ante-post bets for the league and I was beginning to think I had got them wrong, but they got a really good win on Monday when beating Wrexham 4-2. Torquay blew a 2 goal lead at Barnet on Monday and that came on the back of beating Aldershot on BT Sport on Saturday. Torquay did well enough and deserved the win, but I didn't think they had to work all that hard for it. I don't think there is a great deal between these two teams at the moment and the win on Monday should have given Hartlepool a nice confidence boost ahead of this. The 100/30 about an away win looks over priced for me.
    Yeovil v Notts County
    County continue to improve and although they didn't have to do much to beat Chorley on Monday they did score some very impressive goals. I think they can come out on top in this battle between the two relegated sides. I haven't really been taken by Yeovil so far and they lost their last 3 games after results wise a good start. They have only managed to beat Eastleigh and Ebbsfleet so far though and I think at the time they were two of the poorest teams in the division so it doesn't say much. I would have County as clear favourites and they are certainly looking stronger than they were earlier in the month.
    Gloucester City v York City
    York are already looking like they could be hard to beat in the National League North and they are unbeaten after 7 games. Away from home they are 3/3 and I think they can make it 4/4 at Evesham on Saturday. Gloucester had a good win last Saturday, but those efforts told when being well beaten by Brackley on Monday. As I have written in the past Gloucester's form at Evesham hasn't been great although they can make it hard for teams to break them down and they drew plenty in the final few months of the season as they tried to stay at this level. I think York have more than enough to break them down though and I thought York would be odds on so odds against is well worth taking.
    Hyde v Stafford
    It has been a good start to the season for Hyde as after losing to Basford on the opening day of the season they have won their other 3 games including beating South Shields last Saturday. That is clearly strong form and they host a Stafford side who have only picked up 1 point from their first 3 games so Hyde look a decent bet to make it 4 wins on the bounce.
    Bognor v Carshalton
    Take Bognor's 5-0 win over Worthing out and they have had a shocking start to the season and they lost 3-0 to Worthing last Saturday and they had lost their previous game 6-0! Carshalton lost their first two games, but they have won their next 3 games and should be capable of mounting a play-off challenge this season whereas Bognor might just struggle to get involved. It doesn't really make much sense why the away side are 100/30 and the prices should be much closer together.
    Hednesford v Needham Market
    The home side are looking like they will be title contenders this season and have won 4 of their first 5 games with the only defeat coming against unbeaten Coalville. On Monday they beat title favourites Tamworth and I think they should have too much in hand over a Needham Market side who have only managed to beat bottom side Leiston so far this term.
    St Ives v Coalville
    Speaking of Coalville they travel to St Ives side who have only managed to pick up one point on the opening day of the season. As mentioned above Coalville are unbeaten so far and they came out on top in an 8 goal thriller against Nuneaton on Saturday. These two teams should be battling it out at opposite ends of the table come April and Coalville look a big price to pick up 3 more points.
    Hartlepool 1pt @ 100/30 with Bet365
    Notts County 2pts @ 6/4 with Marathon and Bet365
    York 2.5pts @ 11/10 with BetVictor
    Hyde 1pt @ 7/5 with BetVictor
    Carshalton 1pt @ 100/30 with Marathon
    Hednesford 2pts @ 26/25 with Marathon
    Coalville 2pts @ 131/100 with Marathon
  23. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > August 24th   
    Been a disappointing couple of sessions on the back of a couple of good ones which is annoying as well as the fact the last two Nap's have both been beaten after going 3/3 on that front. It's going to be a busy Bank Holiday weekend with games on Saturday and Monday but hopefully it will be a profitable. I have 8 bets on Saturday.
    Previews to follow
    Chorley v Hartlepool
    Chorley got off to a solid start back at this level, but things have really gone wrong in their last two games conceding 10 goals. It seems that the high of promotion has warn off and the reality has set in. It seems they played well enough against Maidenhead, but to do that and still concede 4 goals is not good. Hartlepool being one of the teams I put up ante-post have done OK so far although their only win came at Maidenhead. They played their part in their 3-2 defeat against Bromley last time and I certainly think they are improving after their first two defeats. If Chorley continue in the same vein they have then they are going to get chances to score and although Hartlepool have been a bit too leaky at the back I am not sure Chorley are going to be up too matching them going forward. I would make Hartlepool slight favourites for this so 19/10 is a nice price.
    Eastleigh v Dagenham & Redbridge
    Dagenham were a team I struggled to get right last season and after they beat Harrogate last week I just hope it isn't going to be the same this time around. I wasn't exactly complimentary about them last week and it may surprise to see that I am tipping them up this week, but that was a good performance to put 4 past Harrogate especially as they came from 1 down and 2-1 down. Eastleigh are unbeaten in their two home games so far beating Notts County on day 1 and then drawing with Sutton, but I don't think either of those performances showed they were up too much at the moment and they have lost their 3 away games. I thought they would struggle to reach the play-offs like they did last season, but you have to wonder if they might end up being in a relegation scrap based on performances so far. For me Dagenham look stronger at the moment and at 61/25 they look over priced to me.
    Ebbsfleet v Notts County
    It's probably surprising as well to see I am so strong on Notts County this weekend, but it is clear that performances have improved having beaten Harrogate and drawing with Wrexham on Sunday. With a 6 day gap between games that should give the management team time to work with the players that would have been tricky with the Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday/Sunday schedule they have been faced with prior to this week. They looked a million miles away in the game against Barnet, but it seems they are making good progress now and they face and Ebbsfleet side who come into this having lost all 5 games so far. To be fair to them they were close at Fylde and Solihull to getting at least a point so they are capable, but their two home performances have been really bad so far and as much as I think Gary Hill will sort things out eventually Notts County should have too much for them here.
    Harrogate v Stockport
    Having put Harrogate up in their last three games and for them to let me down no doubt they will go and win this now I am opposing them, but Stockport are just too big a price for me. Harrogate might end up suffering from 2nd season syndrome and losing their last 3 is not good. Stockport looked clueless on the opening day against Maidenhead, but they have gone unbeaten since and certainly looked to have improved since then. Granted they have had a fairly kind fixture list, but they shouldn't fear playing Harrogate at the moment and at bigger than 5/2 they look a value play.
    Yeovil v Maidenhead
    I've tried opposing Yeovil a couple of times without success, but then I did do it with Ebbsfleet and Eastleigh so that was perhaps my mistake. They were really bad against Barrow in a dire game last week and that backed up my view that they aren't anything special. Alan Devonshire continues to work miracles at Maidenhead and they have had a cracking start to the season winning 3 and only losing as mentioned above to Hartlepool. For me Maidenhead will be the sort of team that Yeovil will struggle with this season and like Stockport at bigger than 5/2 they look worth a bet.
    Chelmsford v Welling
    Chelmsford have scored 4 goals in both their home games so far and it looks like they are going to be very strong at home again this season as they were last term. Away from home it hasn't gone so well although they manage to keep Havant out last week. They have already been well backed, but there is just enough in the price for me to want to get involved. I must admit Welling have done better than I thought they would so far, but Chelmsford at home ought to be too strong for them.
    Eastbourne v Dulwich Hamlet
    I might have got slightly lucky Napping Eastbourne the other week because that win over Tonbridge is their only one so far and I think they are worth opposing against a Dulwich side who are looking strong this season. They have only lost one game so far at a strong Hemel side and they are the only team to have taken points against Wealdstone so far having beaten them. They did well to come back from 2 down against a Concord side who have started the season strongly last week and they have a good chance of getting back to winning ways against a Eastbourne side struggling to win at the moment.
    Wimborne v Taunton Town
    I opposed Taunton last week and they finally managed to get a win after two very surprising defeats. That 3-2 win over Chesham was a good effort and that should be them up and running now. Wimborne are fair from the strongest side in the division and Taunton should have too much for them.
    Hartlepool 1pt @ 19/10 with BetVictor
    Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 61/25 with Marathon
    Notts County 3pts @ 177/100 with Marathon
    Stockport 1pt 133/50 with Marathon
    Maidenhead 1pt @ 139/50 with Marathon
    Chelmsford 2.5pts @ 51/50 with Marathon
    Dulwich Hamlet 1pt @ 9/5 with BetVictor
    Taunton 2pts @ 121/100 with Marathon
  24. Like
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > August 12th-14th   
    A great day on Saturday with 5/8 selections winning including the 3rd winning Nap of the season as well as another big price winner with Barnet. Fixtures come thick and fast at this time of year and I have another 8 bets for Tuesday night.
    Eastleigh v Sutton
    Sutton are unbeaten in their first 3 games and although in theory a draw at home to Chorley wasn't great I think they will be happy enough with that given the weather conditions. Coming off the back of wins at Hartlepool and a draw at Barnet I am sure their new manager will be very happy with how things have started. I think they can carry on their unbeaten start as Eastleigh have been unimpressive so far. Yes they beat Notts County on day 1, but that wasn't hard and they haven't been great in losses at Yeovil or Barrow. I think Eastleigh have been priced up on last seasons play-off semi-finalists rather than the current side which is a fair bit weaker. I would make Sutton favs for this and not 5/2 shots. 
    Ebbsfleet v Yeovil
    In theory backing Ebbsfleet who have lost all their games so far looks risky especially as they were bad in their first two games, but they were much improved on Saturday against Fylde. Fylde only won via a penalty early on and Ebbsfleet certainly pushed them close to getting something from the game. If they can carry that on into Tuesday night they can beat a Yeovil side who still aren't really convincing me. They got another point on Saturday against Stockport, but Stockport had a lot of chances and should really have won. I think 17/10 is just on the right side of value.
    Harrogate v Notts County
    It seems odd to think Harrogate should be odds on to beat Notts County, but they should be odds on to beat Notts County. The main reason for this is because I think Harrogate will be able to take full advantage of the dodgy Notts County defence. I know Barnet won, but they didn't really exploit County's issue at defending crosses apart from when they scored the equalizer from a corner and boy did that show up how bad Notts County are at defending balls into the box. I'm surprised after that that Barnet didn't test them more, but Harrogate certainly should. The Woking manager made a point of saying that had to defend a lot of crosses into the box on Saturday against Harrogate and I can't see County keeping them out as Woking did. Harrogate were unlucky to lose as the Woking goal was a huge deflection and they will be pleased with the way they have started the season. County look a million miles away from being title contenders at the moment and it is no wonder they are as big as 22/1 for the title already, I struggle to see them turning around their fortunes here.
    Brackley v Kings Lynn
    Brackley don't look as strong as they have in the last couple of seasons and having beaten Alfreton on the opening day they have lost their next two albeit one was against title favs York on Saturday. Kings Lynn would have been disappointed about their opening day effort when being well beaten by Guiseley, but they have won their next two against Kettering and Hereford and looked decent in dong so. I don't think there is much between these two sides and certainly not the difference the bookies have them at so the value is backing the away side.
    Guiseley v Spennymoor
    Spennymoor are the Naps on Tuesday night as I really fancy them to beat Guiseley. Guiseley had two good wins to start the season, but certainly beating Bradford 5-0 wasn't that hard given how bad they are. They were brought back down to earth with a large bump on Saturday when losing 3-0 at Southport and this should be an even tougher test for them. Spennymoor have only played one game so far as their pitch isn't ready yet so they have had a break since their opening day draw at Hereford. That has to be an advantage at this time of season as Guiseley have 3 quick games in their legs and Spennymoor come into this the fresher. That is certainly part of what makes it a good bet, but I think Spennymoor are potential title contenders and if that is to be right they have to be winning games like this.
    Hereford v AFC Telford
    I initially thought Hereford would do well and they played well against Spennymoor in that 2-2 draw mentioned above, but they haven't been great in their two away games since. They beat a 9 man Gloucester last week although were lucky to do so as even with 10 men Gloucester looked the better side and then as mentioned above they were poor at Kings Lynn. It could be they will be better at home, but at this stage we can't be making assumptions like that and I think there is value in taking them on. Granted I am worried about Telford's away form as it was poor last season and they lost at Kettering on day 1, but again it is too early to say it will be an issue this season. They have been solid in their two home games beating Kidderminster and drawing against Gateshead. There is a lot of pressure on Hereford to do well this season and that might just mean their fans get frustrated if Telford can score early or keep it at 0-0. I wouldn't be having Telford at bigger than 2/1.
    Kettering v Chester
    I opposed Kettering on day 1 and they ended up beating Telford, but they have been much more like how I thought they would be in losing their next two games and they were really bad on Saturday when losing 3-0 to Darlington. I'm still not sure Chester will do as well as their ante-post odds suggest, but they are still unbeaten drawing against Boston and Altrincham before beating Farsely more comfortably than the 2-1 final score suggests. I still think Kettering will struggle and Chester should have too much for them and they look a good bet.
    Kidderminster v Gloucester City
    Obviously because I backed them I hoped Kidderminster would win on Saturday, but I also hoped they would win as I was eyeing this game up as a potential bet. The home side have not looked that great in their first two games and I certainly would not be using a 3-0 win against Bradford Park Avenue as proof that they have turned a corner. It is clear that BPA have been miles off the pace so far this season and have been the worst team in the league by someway. Gloucester have had a solid enough start to life back in the North having beaten Blyth, then that loss to Hereford before drawing with Altrincham on Saturday. Granted Gloucester weren't great, but then ever since they have been at Evesham for their home games they have struggled to get victories and it has been their away form that has been their strong point. It would not surprise me if that is the case again this season and since Mike Cook came in as manager he has made City very hard to beat and the signs are that will be the case again this season. I would have Gloucester at half the price they are and the 4/1 makes plenty of appeal
    Sutton 1pt @ 5/2 with Marathon
    Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365
    Harrogate 2pts @ 23/20 with BetVictor and Betway
    Kings Lynn 1pt @ 17/5 with Marathon
    Spennymoor 3pts @ 11/8 with Marathon
    AFC Telford 1pt @ 52/25 with Marathon
    Chester 2pts @ 67/50 with Marathon
    Gloucester City 1pt @ 4/1 with Betfred and BetVictor
  25. Like
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > August 10th   
    A really good day and great that I could take the knowledge from having watched Wealdstone on Tuesday to make money today. 3/3 winning naps and another big price winner today as well. No rest for the players and no rest for the tipsters at this time of year so back again for the mid week action.
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