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Darran

Non-League Predictions > August 12th-14th

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A great day on Saturday with 5/8 selections winning including the 3rd winning Nap of the season as well as another big price winner with Barnet. Fixtures come thick and fast at this time of year and I have another 8 bets for Tuesday night.

Eastleigh v Sutton

Sutton are unbeaten in their first 3 games and although in theory a draw at home to Chorley wasn't great I think they will be happy enough with that given the weather conditions. Coming off the back of wins at Hartlepool and a draw at Barnet I am sure their new manager will be very happy with how things have started. I think they can carry on their unbeaten start as Eastleigh have been unimpressive so far. Yes they beat Notts County on day 1, but that wasn't hard and they haven't been great in losses at Yeovil or Barrow. I think Eastleigh have been priced up on last seasons play-off semi-finalists rather than the current side which is a fair bit weaker. I would make Sutton favs for this and not 5/2 shots. 

Ebbsfleet v Yeovil

In theory backing Ebbsfleet who have lost all their games so far looks risky especially as they were bad in their first two games, but they were much improved on Saturday against Fylde. Fylde only won via a penalty early on and Ebbsfleet certainly pushed them close to getting something from the game. If they can carry that on into Tuesday night they can beat a Yeovil side who still aren't really convincing me. They got another point on Saturday against Stockport, but Stockport had a lot of chances and should really have won. I think 17/10 is just on the right side of value.

Harrogate v Notts County

It seems odd to think Harrogate should be odds on to beat Notts County, but they should be odds on to beat Notts County. The main reason for this is because I think Harrogate will be able to take full advantage of the dodgy Notts County defence. I know Barnet won, but they didn't really exploit County's issue at defending crosses apart from when they scored the equalizer from a corner and boy did that show up how bad Notts County are at defending balls into the box. I'm surprised after that that Barnet didn't test them more, but Harrogate certainly should. The Woking manager made a point of saying that had to defend a lot of crosses into the box on Saturday against Harrogate and I can't see County keeping them out as Woking did. Harrogate were unlucky to lose as the Woking goal was a huge deflection and they will be pleased with the way they have started the season. County look a million miles away from being title contenders at the moment and it is no wonder they are as big as 22/1 for the title already, I struggle to see them turning around their fortunes here.

Brackley v Kings Lynn

Brackley don't look as strong as they have in the last couple of seasons and having beaten Alfreton on the opening day they have lost their next two albeit one was against title favs York on Saturday. Kings Lynn would have been disappointed about their opening day effort when being well beaten by Guiseley, but they have won their next two against Kettering and Hereford and looked decent in dong so. I don't think there is much between these two sides and certainly not the difference the bookies have them at so the value is backing the away side.

Guiseley v Spennymoor

Spennymoor are the Naps on Tuesday night as I really fancy them to beat Guiseley. Guiseley had two good wins to start the season, but certainly beating Bradford 5-0 wasn't that hard given how bad they are. They were brought back down to earth with a large bump on Saturday when losing 3-0 at Southport and this should be an even tougher test for them. Spennymoor have only played one game so far as their pitch isn't ready yet so they have had a break since their opening day draw at Hereford. That has to be an advantage at this time of season as Guiseley have 3 quick games in their legs and Spennymoor come into this the fresher. That is certainly part of what makes it a good bet, but I think Spennymoor are potential title contenders and if that is to be right they have to be winning games like this.

Hereford v AFC Telford

I initially thought Hereford would do well and they played well against Spennymoor in that 2-2 draw mentioned above, but they haven't been great in their two away games since. They beat a 9 man Gloucester last week although were lucky to do so as even with 10 men Gloucester looked the better side and then as mentioned above they were poor at Kings Lynn. It could be they will be better at home, but at this stage we can't be making assumptions like that and I think there is value in taking them on. Granted I am worried about Telford's away form as it was poor last season and they lost at Kettering on day 1, but again it is too early to say it will be an issue this season. They have been solid in their two home games beating Kidderminster and drawing against Gateshead. There is a lot of pressure on Hereford to do well this season and that might just mean their fans get frustrated if Telford can score early or keep it at 0-0. I wouldn't be having Telford at bigger than 2/1.

Kettering v Chester

I opposed Kettering on day 1 and they ended up beating Telford, but they have been much more like how I thought they would be in losing their next two games and they were really bad on Saturday when losing 3-0 to Darlington. I'm still not sure Chester will do as well as their ante-post odds suggest, but they are still unbeaten drawing against Boston and Altrincham before beating Farsely more comfortably than the 2-1 final score suggests. I still think Kettering will struggle and Chester should have too much for them and they look a good bet.

Kidderminster v Gloucester City

Obviously because I backed them I hoped Kidderminster would win on Saturday, but I also hoped they would win as I was eyeing this game up as a potential bet. The home side have not looked that great in their first two games and I certainly would not be using a 3-0 win against Bradford Park Avenue as proof that they have turned a corner. It is clear that BPA have been miles off the pace so far this season and have been the worst team in the league by someway. Gloucester have had a solid enough start to life back in the North having beaten Blyth, then that loss to Hereford before drawing with Altrincham on Saturday. Granted Gloucester weren't great, but then ever since they have been at Evesham for their home games they have struggled to get victories and it has been their away form that has been their strong point. It would not surprise me if that is the case again this season and since Mike Cook came in as manager he has made City very hard to beat and the signs are that will be the case again this season. I would have Gloucester at half the price they are and the 4/1 makes plenty of appeal

Sutton 1pt @ 5/2 with Marathon

Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365

Harrogate 2pts @ 23/20 with BetVictor and Betway

Kings Lynn 1pt @ 17/5 with Marathon

Spennymoor 3pts @ 11/8 with Marathon

AFC Telford 1pt @ 52/25 with Marathon

Chester 2pts @ 67/50 with Marathon

Gloucester City 1pt @ 4/1 with Betfred and BetVictor

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Great preview ,as usuall 👍

Was thinking Wrexham might burst Halifax bubble,tempting at  around Evs. ... Dragons lost at Dover ( but played 10 against 11),same at midweek, when being 2 0 up at Wood dropped 3 points in the last few minutes of the game.

Edited by MuineBheag

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52 minutes ago, MuineBheag said:

Great preview ,as usuall 👍

Was thinking Wrexham might burst Halifax bubble,tempting at  around Evs. ... Dragons lost at Dover ( but played 10 against 11),same at midweek, when being 2 0 up at Wood dropped 3 points in the last few minutes of the game.

Having seen both those games I'd be more minded to oppose us. Last season was built on defence but we couldn't score; this season we can score but are throwing points away. In addition we will miss Grant in midfield due to his suspension and he has got two of the 5 goals we have scored.

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34 minutes ago, Darran said:

Can’t believe how leaky Wrexham’s defence has become 

Last season we had Kennedy in front of the back four and he provided protection for them. We don't have that this season as the guy we signed to possibly do the same job is injured. Once we get the balance right we will be ok...but I'm not backing us until we have. On Saturday I did BTTS and will do the same again, I think.

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I've just noticed that Matchbook are offering markets for the National League.

Liquidity is almost non-existant at present but if that were to increase then they would be a viable and preferable alternative to Betfair Exchange since Matchbook's 2% commission rate undercuts Betfair's 5%.

Will keep an eye on Matchbook's National League markets to see how they develop in any case.

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