Judeksi
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Posts posted by Judeksi
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What do you think about the Berrettini-Nadal match? Rafa will have a better chance now when he has 2 days of rest but it looked tough against Shapovalov. I think Matteo could have the weapons to get the win here, he proved that he has the stamina too for a 5-set match if this goes to distance. Tough to say, but if Berrettini's odds are around 2.7 or better, I could take the bet.
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J.Millman to beat T.Kokkinakis at 2.16 with Marathonbet
Thanasi had plenty of wins at the end of last season but most of those came against weaker opponents, he still lost to players like Viola, Horansky, Zuk and O'Connell, all of whose ranking is over 160. I usually trust Millman in these conditions, he's a good hard court player and he fights for every point and is alright mentally compared to Kokkinakis. I think this will be tight and I don't think Kokkinakis is there mentally to win these kind of tight matches yet. He can obviously prove me wrong here but I gotta take Millman with odds over 2.
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I like Fucsovics against Federer on sunday. Roger must be tired after that 4-hour match against Millman who fought really hard but in some ways choked in the end. Fucsovics has played his best tennis here in a while and has been liking the conditions too. Best odds around 5.50 @William Hill
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Notice that Watford sacked Sanchez Flores after the loss against Southampton, so they are once again in a situation where they are starting with a new coach, for the second(!) time during this season. It will be interesting to see how big of a boost Watford will get from this. Is this second change as effective as the first one? Leicester will give them hard time tomorrow, that's for sure. Watford-Palace is an interesting match on the weekend, I still could see Palace snatching at least a draw there..
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Chelsea might get a surpise draw or a victory against City. Like said before, these games after the international break could give some surprise results. If City wins, I think they'll do it with at least 2 goal difference.
Hammers-Spurs might be a low scoring goal, so my pick is under 2,5 goals for that.
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Couple points from this gameweek's matches so far: both Southampton and Norwich looked quite awful especially at the back. Southampton had problems getting the possession (numerous misses from the passes) and Norwich keeps on looking vulnerable at the back. Improvements can happen during the international break but I'll definitely keep my eye on betting against these two teams in the near future.
- Torque and StevieDay1983
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I think ManU will continue their positive form this weekend. I saw the match Bournemouth played against Norwich 2 weeks ago and they actually looked kinda uninspired, all in all the match was a snoozefest. What is more important is that the expected goals table tells me that Bournemouth should be fighting the relegation battle with the goalscoring form they are having at the moment: https://experimental361.com/2019/10/26/expected-goals-league-tables-25-28-oct-2019/
ManU to win @ 2.21 with Pinnacle
- michalciesla and StevieDay1983
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Great points by @shrewd., I saw the midweek match where ManU played against Partizan away and it looked like a good preparation for the match against Norwich. Partizan tried their best to attack but United basically took the pace out of the game. I think ManU will try to do the same today and then probably score one or two. This could turn out to be another low scoring away match for ManU.
ManU to win @ 1.97 with Pinnacle
Under 2,5 goals @ 2.03 with Pinnale -
Bournemouth home win might be the bet of the weekend. Maybe Bournemouth with -1 asian handicap too. There's always the fear that Norwich might have finally sorted out their defence, but on the other hand Norwich hasn't been able to score many goals on away matches either. Moreover, I think Pukki might be a bit tired after two EURO 2020 qualification matches (and plenty of travelling that comes with it) even though he scored 2 goals against defensively quite weak Armenia.
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Manchester United vs Arsenal
Arsenal +0 @ 2.16 with Pinnacle looks tasty to me. Like said before, I don't feel like Pogba wants to be in ManU anymore and that's a big drawback for them. Also ManU has already dropped plenty of points to weaker sides like Palace, West Ham and Southampton. Arsenal has only lost once and that was against Liverpool so I don't consider that a huge blow for them. Arsenal has had some problems at the back but to me ManU just doesn't feel like the team which could comfortably win matches against the bigger teams in PL. My gut says OGS just isn't the right kind of a manager for the team.
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West Ham - Norwich
I expect nothing but goals here. Over 3 goals @ 1.81 with Pinnacle and over 3,5 goals @ 2.31 with Pinnacle. Norwich are playing very attacking-minded football at the moment and players like Pukki and Cantwell are in red hot form. Norwich seem very shaky at the back though, and I expect their defence to get a bit better as the season goes on but at the moment they are searching for the right defensive tactics. West Ham on the other hand have Haller back from an injury who already scored 2 goals against Watford (who were quite weak to be honest, but still). The Hammers have plenty of attacking potential in Lanzini, Anderson etc so they can cause problems to that Norwich defence. West Ham have had their problems in defence also so this match-up looks to be perfect for goals.
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Weird odds drift on Berrettini-Lopez. Berrettini to win around 1.71 atm. If the Italian isn't injured he should be a bigger favorite here. Might be worth a punt this one.
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Wow, Tomic has totally given the match up against Tsonga, it already happened in the 1st set to be honest. I know Tomic has done this before but it's still crazy to watch this, it's Wimbledon after all
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Rybarikova to beat Gauff at 1.54 @ Pinnacle looks alright to me. I mean Gauf wasn't THAT good against Venus who made 26(!!) unforced errors in that match. Rybarikova isn't fading away like Venus, she managed to beat Sabalenka neatly yesterday and I believe the good form will continue here. It's also a huge mental challenge for Gauf to be able to come back after a huge victory against your idol. Small to medium stakes because it's WTA we are talking about here after all
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Couple matches that I like from the first round:
L.Mayer to beat E.Gulbis @ 1.87 (Bethard) (Medium stakes)
Ernests' form has been terrible for almost the whole season. The Latvian has won only 4 of the last 21 matches he has played since the beginning of February. Gulbis managed to get to the 4th round here last year, but I just cannot see that happening with the kind of form he has at the moment. Grass might not be Mayer's favorite surface, but the Argentinian is quite clearly in better form at the moment.J.Thompson to beat N.Kyrgios @ 3.07 (Pinnacle) (Small stakes)
It seems like Nicky isn't happy with the way he is playing at the moment. He basically gave the match away against FAA in Queen's. Of course Kyrgios has the talent when he is really fighting for every ball like he did in Acapulco in March. Still, the odds on this match seem good enough to me for a small punt, Thompson is in good form and comfortable playing on grass.K.Edmund -6 games against J.Munar @ 1.99 (Pinnacle) (Medium stakes)
Munar is clearly out of form (hasn't won a match since May) and he also mainly prefers clay courts. Edmund is much more comfortable on grass and in better form, so I think Kyle has a great chance to win with this handicap.- CzechPunter, South_African_Punter, eros and 1 other
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Does anybody know why Dimitrov's odds are rising against Auger-Aliassime? I know FAA had a great tournament in Stuttgart and this is Dimitrov's season opener on grass, but still. This kind of odds drifting could suggest that Grisha has a some kind of injury even?
..oh and yes, I have betted Dimitrov to beat Auger-Aliassime on this match because of the long week that FAA had in Stuttgart (and he has to travel to London too). Interesting to see what happens.
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Well that was rough from Federer, managed to win it in 4 sets though. I think I'm going to bet Rafa quite heavily with various handicaps in the semi-final.
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11 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:
Looks like Nadal is timing his form to perfection, this is the best I've seen from him for a long time. I might even back him for the title if the odds are acceptable after today and if he doesn't have a dip in the third set like he did against Goffin.
And both Wawrinka and Federer aren't playing at their best at the moment so Rafa will probably have a quite easy semi-final.
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2 hours ago, i1_principe said:
Wawrinka to beat Federer at 3.40 with Bet365
I am quite surprised to see such odds. Stan showed great tennis last games defeating Tsitsipas and Dimitrov. Federer has won his four games so far, but he played against far easier opponents. Today is expected to rain in Paris and this would give advantage for Wawrinka, as the court will be slower and the balls will be heavier. Stan won 2 of the last 3 games of clay between these rivals and I do not see him as an outsider here.
Good point about the weather! I just hope Stan's recovery has gone well and he doesn't get tired early on. He needs to grab at least one set right away from Roger so he can start tiring him, otherwise Federer can start cruising with his serve. If this goes over 3 sets then Wawa has a chance IMO. Roger is still great in best of 3 matches but he can start fading away in longer matches, just like he did in the AO couple months ago against Tsitsipas (Stefanos won that in the fourth set). GL with the bets!
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Wawrinka to beat Federer looks tempting, best odds around 3.44 (Marathonbet) at the moment. H2H in last 3 matches on clay is 2-1 for Wawa, those are from 2015 and 2014 so these two haven't met on clay quite recently.
Roger has a chance here because of the marathon match that Stan had to go through. Stan still has one day of rest here and we know how good his stamina is. Roger hasn't been tested here at all so that's why the odds are like this. I think this will be much closer match than the odds suggest if Stan's recovery goes well.
- geo7tsaki, CzechPunter and Mathos67
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I personally can't see Liverpool winning this. They have to chase HARD right from the start of the match which will eventually open up the match for Barcelona. Also, both Salah and Firmino will miss the match which is a huge blow for the home side. Barcelona rested their opening lineup against Celta, whereas Liverpool had to fight full 90+ minutes against Newcastle with their first XI. So it's Barcelona win for me, also small stakes on Barcelona -1,5 handicap.
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Djokovic (-7,5 games) to beat Nishikori at 2.10 with bet365
Nishikori can't have much energy left in his body after that gruelling 5-hour marathon match against PCB. Nishikori had to play couple long matches before that too (against Majchrzak and Karlovic), and I believe that will show in this match. Great odds on Djoker here IMO.
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Just watched the highlights of Istomin-Federer match and at least on that video the court looks fairly slow to me. At least slower than a year ago. Is it just me or is this just because it was a night match?
Tennis Tips - January 31 - February 6
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted · Edited by Judeksi
Notes from Ruusuvuori-Vesely match: Vesely looks like he has gained some weight and his movement looks heavy. Only his serve can somehow keep him in the match. A potential player to bet against in the near future.