Kenton Schweppes
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Posts posted by Kenton Schweppes
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It's a big ask Stevie mate....but the bookies are being unbelievably generous on us but it is a tough game, I'll admit, but we are a full 8 points in front of Brighton. I'd deffo say we were worth a single tonight.
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What's the lowdown for tomorrows games in the LOW Steve mate?
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2 hours ago, addpea said:
Very disappointing afternoon.
You can't get them right all the time though mate.
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1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Some varied selections there, @gogetta. Interested to see how they do. You've had some decent tips in other leagues across the world so let's see if you are as prolific in the Football League!
@aliando, I didn't know you were a Bluebird! Great to see another one on here! I was initially very pessimistic about our dealings during the transfer window but remembered how many signings we've made. I'm still not happy that we've lost Fabio and David Marshall but the signings of Emyr Huws and Joe Bennett are very shrewd. I still think our very weak keeper situation will cost us but I think we have enough to stay mid-table. We won't challenge the play-offs though. If we do then Paul Trollope is a genius.
@Kenton Schweppes, bet you're loving David Wagner winning Manager of the Month. Definitely means your lot are on for a barren September! Hahaha. Some nice tips there. Agree with those first two as well. Bristol City at that price is brilliant. Signing Tammy Abraham on loan was a master stroke.
Ha ha I know, I was hoping he wouldn't get it but if he hadn't have won it they would have had to have been a parliamentary enquiry into it, it was that obvious!! I'm hoping the curse doesn't strike today, anywhere but at Leeds.
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Instantly, there are two prices that stand out like sore thumbs in The Championship as being good value, Bristol City 5/4 at Rotherham and Newcastle 17/10 at Derby. got to fancy Bristol, Rotherham are leaking goals willy nilly, granted the loss of Kodija to Derby is a big loss, bit Rotherham's defence is so porous I think they have more than a decent chance here. Bit mystified by Newcastle's price they seem to be hitting their stride nicely now after a shakey start. Derby have been out splashing the cash on a couple of new strikers in the international break but will it pay instant dividends? Think Pearson is on borrowed time their if he can't turn it round, talk about having a sluggish start to the season.
Going to let you into an interesting stat here that is probably worth a bet tomorrow that I bet no one has picked up, Leeds v Huddersfield, the last 10 fixtures between the 2 clubs has seen over 2.5 goals in every game and Sky Bet are offering over 2.5 goals at evens. I genuinely think this is worth backing. To be honest, on paper, the 6/4 on us looks good and on paper we should win but I would avoid backing us, as anything could happen and generally tends to in this fixture.
Onto League One, only one price catches my eye here and that's Sheffield United at 6/4 at Wimbledon. A bad start but United have won their last two games and one of them an away win at Gillingham, not an easy place to go. They could be worth a closer inspection.
Swiftly onto League Two, I see Morecambe are being offered at another crazy price, why I don't know? Leyton Orient are being offered at 23/10 up at Carlisle and I think that is worth a dabble. Other decent prices are evens on Plymouth and Luton and Mansfield at 11/10.
- StevieDay1983 and Kunal888
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5 hours ago, addpea said:
Steve Burr has been announced as new Southport manager although not sure it will make too much difference for Saturday.
To be fair he knows the non league circuit but appears to have become some kind of journeyman manager, granted he has had a bit of success but he has his work cut out at Southport, they cannot, whatever they do, cut it at Conference National level.
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Some strange results tonight, none more so than Oxford City's 3-1 win at Bath.
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'Bagfulls of goals in Wales games are rare'.....until tonight!!
Never mind a good start to the campaign and you pick up where you left of from the summer. Always good to get the goal difference up by thrashing the dog ends of the group.
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What about Hampton & Richmond at 7/5 at Gosport? They demolished St Albans on their own patch at the weekend and Gosport seem nothing special, remarkably, 3 of their last 4 wins have been by 4-2 and the other by the scoreline of 4-1, in fact strangely the last time they dropped points was against Truro who are struggling.
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59 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Tempted to put a big bet on Wales to grind out a dogged 1-0 win over Moldova tonight. We really struggle to break down the "weaker" nations under our current tactics so think we will make hard work of it tonight. I'm tempted to go for total goals scored under 2.5 at 1.85 with 888Sport tonight.
Considering Ashley Williams any time scorer at 13.00 with Paddy Power as well. Think the goals could come from set pieces tonight.
Yeah I'd be pretty confident that Wales will overcome Moldova as they are pretty ropey. I think under 2.5 could be a good call, bagfulls of goal in Wales games are rare so I think it's a decent call, they are strong defensively but lack that top striker which they've always had in the past like Rush and Hughes and to a certain extent Craig Bellamy. I assume Bale is available?
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17 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Wow, this England game is making me fall asleep. Tempted to back a 0-0 finish now with my mortgage!
Good job you didn't mate!!
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1 hour ago, WinningAdvice said:
If you don't mind, who's the favourite to win this season?
League Two was Portsmouth I think and probably Bolton for League One, don't quote me on that though.
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16 minutes ago, addpea said:
I don't think stakes should come into it. If you want to win money no matter how small the amounts you are putting on then singles are the way to go. I don't like saying the amounts I put on because it is all about how much you can actually afford, but I certainly would say I was a large staking punter. If you have a set amount you can afford to bet each week then you need to best split the stakes over the selections you come up with. Maybe pick one team out each week and then do a small acca alongside it if you would prefer, but don't think because you aren't a big staking punter that you shouldn't be betting in singles. You landed a 31/1 4 fold last week which was very good, but think about how big those odds are. Would you back a football team if they were 31/1 to win? Bookies hate punters who bet in singles, but they love punters who bet accas, which is why they push them so much. That should tell you all you need to know.
I don't disagree with what you are saying and I know all the tricks in the book the bookies do to try and get your money off you and no, I would never back a team at 31/1. I have bet on singles before and won on them, although the last one I had was Iceland to beat Holland in the Euro qualifiers at 17/2, I think they were. Everything you say makes sense and I wasn't after you to reveal your stakes, sorry mate. You are clearly quite clued up on non league football and feel your write ups are clearly worth looking into.
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15 minutes ago, addpea said:
That is why singles are the way to make punting pay. You picked out Aldershot at over 3/1 and I have no idea why you didn't do them in a single. Look at my 3 bets today all at around even money. If I had just done a treble I would have done my money, instead I did 3 singles and a small bet on the treble and I am in profit.
I assume by covering singles you are using high stakes, where as I don't, although in hindsight I might as well have put all the money I spent on a 4 fold and a treble on Aldershot.
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Had a treble of Aldershot, Maidenhead and Lincoln, despite picking out Aldershot at a fantastic price it's to no avail as Maidenhead draw 0-0, the only 0-0 draw in the North and South Conferences!!
........and Lincoln take the lead after 2 minutes....
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Nowhere near today
![:\](/images/smilies/ohwell.gif ":\")
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2 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Reckon Morecambe is anything to do with their takeover this week? Manager and players might be unsettled uncertain that they will still be with the club for much longer?
I don'the know but whoever they are playing they seem to be priced up at 2/1 plus most weeks, they were 16/5 last week at Accrington. Not sure they'll continue to remain at the top though but not sure what method the bookies are using to price them up.
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Add pea what's your opinion on Aldershot tomorrow? I note Sky Bet are offering them at 3/1 at home to Tranmere. I know Tranmere are looking really solid and concede hardly any but they don't score a lot either. They only beat Guiseley 1-0 ok it's 3 points and all they are bothered about is getting back into the FL but I think Aldershot might have a chance here.
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I wouldn't be confident posting a win on these games. The best prices are to be found in League 2 and leaders Morecambe are being offered at 12/5 at home....what's that all about?
Sky Bet are offering Carlisle at evens at home to Accrington Stanley. Stanley have been dire this time around and Carlisle have had a decentish start, this a decent price, worth taking as I suspect on the high street you won't get this.
After a shaky start Doncaster 6/5 have won their last 3 in the league and they are nicely priced tomorrow away at Crewe, Alex seem to be the draw specialists so the draw might be worth looking at here but I'll plump for Doncaster in this one.
Mansfield host rock bottom Cambridge and are priced at 23/20, bit surprised that Cambridge are bottom if truth be known but they aren't bottom for nothing. Mansfield have yet to string two wins together and secured an impressive away win at Leyton Orient last time out. Home win here.
After opening the season with 2 defeats, last years defeated play off finalists Plymouth are coming into tomorrow on the back of 3 consecutive wins and are priced at 11/10 tomorrow against Cheltenham.
The only other price in this league that is of interest is Colchester at home to Exeter, 21/20 they are priced at, they have made a decent fist of this league since being relegated and if you were unsure on Plymouth you could swap them round.
I'm going to plump for a 4 fold of Carlisle, Doncaster, Mansfield and Colchester pays 18/1 with Sky Bet.
- Kunal888 and StevieDay1983
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Does anyone know much about the League of Ireland Premier? Thinking of maybe looking at a 4 fold of Shamrock Rovers, Dundalk, Derry City in with Darlington 1883 from the Conference North. Any thoughts? Pays 11/1 with Sky Bet.
Little puzzled with the Shamrock Rovers price, 21/20, for a home team in form(ish), way higher up the table, granted Shamrock's record in this fixture is pretty poor but does that effect current form what happened 2 years ago? I also get its a derby fixture but on stats I think that's a generous price.
Anyone?
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39 minutes ago, allthethings said:
So, we don't call it the Paint Pot Trophy anymore...I'm sure we'll come up with a new moniker...but as with the new Scottish Cup format, this one has me concerned. The JPT was an extraordinary competition for underdogs, but now that it's group play rather than knockouts, I wonder whether the dogs will bark. Many teams used to treat the first round or first two rounds as one-offs, but now that they'll get four matches in group play, will they press for points, settle for draws, approach things strategically, what? In the Scots League Cup, the favorites in group play went 32-4-4 at home, 17-4-4 away. It seemed the dogs were just completely outclassed and strategy didn't come into it at all. It's certain that the quality gap here will be far more narrow.
My other concern is with regard to the U-23 teams. Who is on these squads? Are they any good? In the Scots Challenge Cup, the U-20s were favored in their first matches, and did very well, going 7-1-4 in the 64th round, but then went 1-1-5 in the 32nd round.
23 favorites of under 2.00 in 32 matches, and in this case it's the U-23s who are dogs. Ugh. They must be pretty poor to be five to one against Coventry or whomever.
Any thoughts on this, much appreciated.
My thoughts on this are...avoid the U23 teams, they are priced up pretty long, no one knows how they will fair, no one knows sod all about them. I would stick to ties involving league teams against other league teams. Having said that there isn't much to go on price wise in them games either. There are on or two prices that catch the eye.
Carlisle are priced at 2/1 against an Oldham team who have drawn a blank in 4 of their 7 games already. Carlisle have had a reasonable start, only reasonable but I think they have a chance here, just based on the fact that Oldham are so impotent.
Portsmouth 19/20 (this price has dropped drastically, they were 21/20 earlier this aft) travel to Yeovil, sure Pompey will be after promotion but I'm sure they are a far better side than Yeovil who took a 4-1 caning at Doncaster on Saturday and have been ropey from day one.
Crewe 12/5 travel to Accrington, neither team have had a great start to the season but Crewe seem to be making a better fist of it than Accrington. Think the 12/5 on Crewe is generous given that Accrington are nowhere near the team they were last season and they seem to know where the net is, in all 7 games they have scored 11 times and in previous cup ties this season they have knocked out a team from one division higher and ran another from two divisions higher to extra time only losing 4-3.
Carlisle 2/1 Portsmouth 19/20 Crewe 12/5 give a treble at 18/1
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Just on the League of Wales mate, there always seem to be an avalanche of goals in games, over 2.5 goals was a regular occurrence, having not followed it that much, is this still the case? Do you have much success on this league? I used to mix selections in on a Friday night with other games from the UK but not touched it for a while.
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I'm that excited, I made a hash of editing my own post!!
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1 minute ago, Kenton Schweppes said:
Just cleaned up on a Darlington 6/5, Harrogate 2/1, Chelmsford 21/20 and Gloucester 13/10 4 fold 31/1
Darlington grabbed a late winner....I was expecting Halifax to grab a late equalizer....but alas, I'm home and hosed.
Championship, League 1 & League 2 > September
in Championship Predictions
Posted
By all accounts we didn't play so well and like I said, I knew it would be a tough game and I had a feeling we would be defeated but we are a decent team but you have picked up on something which is off a concern to me, our lack of goal threat. Wagner insists on playing with 1 up front and it's not something I'm a fan off. To be honest, the start has surpassed all of our wildest expectations on the terraces at Town but I'm not sure we'll be in the shake up come April/May but I do think we'll finish top 10 and be ready for a promotion assault next season.
Took your time in breaking us down though and you only scored through a keeper error....I just hop you don't lose tomorrow at Burton......but I'll be backing you as you're a decent price tomorrow.