neilovan

Disappointing from Hurkacz and De Minaur . Hurkacz looks a marginal bet at the moment. He gets frustrated and aggro on the court and he can't seem to figure out what to do against a tricky opponent. Saw the same stuff against Mannarino at the Aussie Open where he was bamboozled. Di Minaur will just not beat top 15 players with his game.  Brooksby escaped , but his opponent will wonder what happened there.

Very average prospects today;
Kokkinkais will take a regulation loss against Zverev. 
Kyrigos v SInner
The only thing against Kyrigos is fitness. You can see that he is not in brilliant shape for a top athlete. Not terrible, but probably below average when compared to his competitors. He definitely doesn't like putting in the road work and you can't compare to someone who is very fit (Cameron Norrie). But it won't really hurt him so badly in a 3 setter.  In actual ability and talent, there is no comparison between Kyrigos and Sinner. Kyrigos has way more natural ability and I expect it to carry him over the line quite easily here. That quick strike on a rising ball toss is so damn tricky (Harris, Rosco Tanner. Kevin Curren) and unreadable. Even at a much lower level I can do that ( been playing tennis for 52 years, started when I was 5), and nobody can figure out where it's going (lol sometimes not even me).
Medvedev v Brooksby will be a one sided no contest. Brooksby used it all up yesterday and I expect a regulation Medvedev win. Just don't see anything betting wise that looks ok.
Tiafoe v Cerundolo should be a straight forward win for Tiafoe. I think the -3.5 game handicap is decent at 1.9
Hurkacz v Harris For whatever reason, Harris looks much more relaxed and plays better as an underdog. I just don't fancy Hurkacz here. His attitude is not brilliant, and he get's frustrated too easily. Go and look up a term called 'Neuroticism', which is a measure of emotional stability, and a person's ability to deal with stress, and withstand negative emotions. I think it applies to Hurkacz, who seems to get flustered often. I think Harris wins here.
Tsitsipas v Alcaraz Sadly for Tsitsipas, he really has nothing that can hurt Alcaraz. Serve is pretty good, but he will not dominate him physically, and in ground stroke rallies, his backhan will bring errors. I think relatively close match, but one that Alcaraz wins.
Fritz v Kecmanovic just a tough match to predict. Both have excellent serves, that are difficult to break. I see at least 1 tie-breaker here, and would be going over 22.5 games, or maybe push it to three sets.

Very average prospects today;
Kokkinkais will take a regulation loss against Zverev. 
Kyrigos v SInner
The only thing against Kyrigos is fitness. You can see that he is not in brilliant shape for a top athlete. Not terrible, but probably below average when compared to his competitors. He definitely doesn't like putting in the road work and you can't compare to someone who is very fit (Cameron Norrie). But it won't really hurt him so badly in a 3 setter.  In actual ability and talent, there is no comparison between Kyrigos and Sinner. Kyrigos has way more natural ability and I expect it to carry him over the line quite easily here. That quick strike on a rising ball toss is so damn tricky (Harris, Rosco Tanner. Kevin Curren) and unreadable. Even at a much lower level I can do that ( been playing tennis for 52 years, started when I was 5), and nobody can figure out where it's going (lol sometimes not even me).
Medvedev v Brooksby will be a one sided no contest. Brooksby used it all up yesterday and I expect a regulation Medvedev win. Just don't see anything betting wise that looks ok.
Tiafoe v Cerundolo should be a straight forward win for Tiafoe. I think the -3.5 game handicap is decent at 1.9
Hurkacz v Harris For whatever reason, Harris looks much more relaxed and plays better as an underdog. I just don't fancy Hurkacz here. His attitude is not brilliant, and he get's frustrated too easily. Go and look up a term called 'Neuroticism', which is a measure of emotional stability, and a person's ability to deal with stress, and withstand negative emotions. I think it applies to Hurkacz, who seems to get flustered often. I think Harris wins here.
Tsitsipas v Alcaraz Sadly for Tsitsipas, he really has nothing that can hurt Alcaraz. Serve is pretty good, but he will not dominate him physically, and in ground stroke rallies, his backhan will bring errors. I think relatively close match, but one that Alcaraz wins.
Fritz v Kecmanovic just a tough match to predict. Both have excellent serves, that are difficult to break. I see at least 1 tie-breaker here, and would be going over 22.5 games, or maybe push it to three sets.

Very average prospects today;
Kokkinkais will take a regulation loss against Zverev. 
Kyrigos v SInner
The only thing against Kyrigos is fitness. You can see that he is not in brilliant shape for a top athlete. Not terrible, but probably below average when compared to his competitors. He definitely doesn't like putting in the road work and you can't compare to someone who is very fit (Cameron Norrie). But it won't really hurt him so badly in a 3 setter.  In actual ability and talent, there is no comparison between Kyrigos and Sinner. Kyrigos has way more natural ability and I expect it to carry him over the line quite easily here. That quick strike on a rising ball toss is so damn tricky (Harris, Rosco Tanner. Kevin Curren) and unreadable. Even at a much lower level I can do that ( been playing tennis for 52 years, started when I was 5), and nobody can figure out where it's going (lol sometimes not even me).
Medvedev v Brooksby will be a one sided no contest. Brooksby used it all up yesterday and I expect a regulation Medvedev win. Just don't see anything betting wise that looks ok.
Tiafoe v Cerundolo should be a straight forward win for Tiafoe. I think the -3.5 game handicap is decent at 1.9
Hurkacz v Harris For whatever reason, Harris looks much more relaxed and plays better as an underdog. I just don't fancy Hurkacz here. His attitude is not brilliant, and he get's frustrated too easily. Go and look up a term called 'Neuroticism', which is a measure of emotional stability, and a person's ability to deal with stress, and withstand negative emotions. I think it applies to Hurkacz, who seems to get flustered often. I think Harris wins here.
Tsitsipas v Alcaraz Sadly for Tsitsipas, he really has nothing that can hurt Alcaraz. Serve is pretty good, but he will not dominate him physically, and in ground stroke rallies, his backhan will bring errors. I think relatively close match, but one that Alcaraz wins.
Fritz v Kecmanovic just a tough match to predict. Both have excellent serves, that are difficult to break. I see at least 1 tie-breaker here, and would be going over 22.5 games, or maybe push it to three sets.

Very average prospects today;
Kokkinkais will take a regulation loss against Zverev. 
Kyrigos v SInner
The only thing against Kyrigos is fitness. You can see that he is not in brilliant shape for a top athlete. Not terrible, but probably below average when compared to his competitors. He definitely doesn't like putting in the road work and you can't compare to someone who is very fit (Cameron Norrie). But it won't really hurt him so badly in a 3 setter.  In actual ability and talent, there is no comparison between Kyrigos and Sinner. Kyrigos has way more natural ability and I expect it to carry him over the line quite easily here. That quick strike on a rising ball toss is so damn tricky (Harris, Rosco Tanner. Kevin Curren) and unreadable. Even at a much lower level I can do that ( been playing tennis for 52 years, started when I was 5), and nobody can figure out where it's going (lol sometimes not even me).
Medvedev v Brooksby will be a one sided no contest. Brooksby used it all up yesterday and I expect a regulation Medvedev win. Just don't see anything betting wise that looks ok.
Tiafoe v Cerundolo should be a straight forward win for Tiafoe. I think the -3.5 game handicap is decent at 1.9
Hurkacz v Harris For whatever reason, Harris looks much more relaxed and plays better as an underdog. I just don't fancy Hurkacz here. His attitude is not brilliant, and he get's frustrated too easily. Go and look up a term called 'Neuroticism', which is a measure of emotional stability, and a person's ability to deal with stress, and withstand negative emotions. I think it applies to Hurkacz, who seems to get flustered often. I think Harris wins here.
Tsitsipas v Alcaraz Sadly for Tsitsipas, he really has nothing that can hurt Alcaraz. Serve is pretty good, but he will not dominate him physically, and in ground stroke rallies, his backhan will bring errors. I think relatively close match, but one that Alcaraz wins.
Fritz v Kecmanovic just a tough match to predict. Both have excellent serves, that are difficult to break. I see at least 1 tie-breaker here, and would be going over 22.5 games, or maybe push it to three sets.

Strange match for Riske. Had chances but Osaka just played a little bit better than her at crucial stages. FOr me an in play bet is Alcaraz, who looks comfortable against Cliic and Swiatek to win later. Prob gets 5 to 10 but decent odds for 2 mismatches. Just no way that Cilic can in this match.

I find this level of tennis very unpredictable. The shorter the event, the more unpredictable. The lower the quality of the contestants, the more unpredictable. Just a no-go zone for me.

The men's side of the draw looks tough today. I'm asking myself the question 'who looks overrated, and who could possibly be beaten?" For me Medvedev and ALcaraz are probably too strong for their opponents but unbettable at those odds. So that leaves another 6 matches;
Brooksby v Bautista Agut.   
If I look at this match you know what Bautista AGut can bring. Brooksby is still a work in progress. If he puts it together, he's a very difficult customer. I think this is relatively close but Brooksby just comes through. Spanish players are physically tough, having developed their skills on clay, so Bautista Agut will be no pushover.
Karatsev v Hurkacz. 
Only one winner here and it's Hurkacz. I think he has more than enough game to cover the -3.5 game handicap (odds of even money on bet365). The other bet that interests me is Hurkacz t win 2-0 in sets which is just over even money. Will go with that (1.18 on bet365).
Harris v Nishioka
Harris as a favorite, just scares me. Even though he had a very good win last match, he is just too inconsistent at the moment. The problem for a big server, is that you don't develop a really solid ground game. You don't need to, because most of the time the return of serve doesn't come back, or it's a semi-dolly that you can finish. So when the serve comes back reasonably well, your game/fitness has not suitably developed (very much like Rybakina). This is probably backed up by the points won on 2nd serve percentage. No bet for me.
Korda v Kecmanovic
I think Korda is really gonna struggle here. He is facing a big, tall young guy with a canon for a serve. His win over Sock is impressive (American at home), and he took care of Felix easily. Kecmanovic is also coached by David Nalbandian, who was a very tough competitor. I would be going for the Serb here.
Fritz v Paul
Was very impressed with Fritz when he played Kukushkin. Kukushkin played really well. 3rd set at 3-3 he had made just 1 unforced error. 6 games x 6 points = 36 x 6 shots ... so that's 1 unforced error in 100 ball strikes. But Fritz matched him. Fritz also showed a side of his game I had not seen before, hitting the ball very hard, and changing pace really well. Combined with a great serve. Only one winner here and it's Fritz.
Tsitsipas v De Minaur
I'm not impressed with Tsitsipas. I don't like the coaching, and it's crazy that a player should be so dependent on info/encouragement  from his box, at this stage. Tennis is an individual sport, and at some point you have to figure things out yourself. I don't think Tsitsipas dos this well.
De Minaur is actually knocking on the 'next level' door. He's so close, and just needs to add a tiny bit more to his game to get there. Maybe a little confidence, or a slight change in tactics. I think he matches up very well with Tsitsipas, and probably wins here. I think the over 21.5 games is a decent bet, for me better than the De Minaur +3.5 game handicap. I'll go De Minaur outright win here.
 
Finding the tennis quite difficult to watch. Most of the time the view is from a camera that must be 16 rows up and back from the courts. Makes a hideous picture. Court not framed well, and you don't see the flight/height of the ball. Then add in some motor mouth, gibberish commentator that just talks ?, and  its seriously annoying. 

In the woman's WTA in Miami , I think Collins will get the better of Jabeur. Collins looks fit and focused, and I am not sure that Jabeur is fully back from her injury. Again, crowd support will not hurt the American.
Quite happy to take a small double on Bronzetti to beat Saville (Gavrilova) and Osaka to lose to Riske. Riske has a decent chance, because Osaka is just so brittle, and hearing an American crowd, supporting an American will probably upset her. Riske just gotta start well, and Osaka could melt down. Bronzetti in great form, so anything could happen in this match.
I think Kudermetova beats Petra Kvitova. Kudermetova is a tough competitor and has been playing really well. Will combine this with Fruhvirtova to beat Badosa (obviously small bet).
I think the 1.57 on Swiatek to beat Guaff in straight sets is a reasonable price. Swiatek probably playing close to the best tennis of her life at the moment.

I find this level of tennis very unpredictable. The shorter the event, the more unpredictable. The lower the quality of the contestants, the more unpredictable. Just a no-go zone for me.

The men's side of the draw looks tough today. I'm asking myself the question 'who looks overrated, and who could possibly be beaten?" For me Medvedev and ALcaraz are probably too strong for their opponents but unbettable at those odds. So that leaves another 6 matches;
Brooksby v Bautista Agut.   
If I look at this match you know what Bautista AGut can bring. Brooksby is still a work in progress. If he puts it together, he's a very difficult customer. I think this is relatively close but Brooksby just comes through. Spanish players are physically tough, having developed their skills on clay, so Bautista Agut will be no pushover.
Karatsev v Hurkacz. 
Only one winner here and it's Hurkacz. I think he has more than enough game to cover the -3.5 game handicap (odds of even money on bet365). The other bet that interests me is Hurkacz t win 2-0 in sets which is just over even money. Will go with that (1.18 on bet365).
Harris v Nishioka
Harris as a favorite, just scares me. Even though he had a very good win last match, he is just too inconsistent at the moment. The problem for a big server, is that you don't develop a really solid ground game. You don't need to, because most of the time the return of serve doesn't come back, or it's a semi-dolly that you can finish. So when the serve comes back reasonably well, your game/fitness has not suitably developed (very much like Rybakina). This is probably backed up by the points won on 2nd serve percentage. No bet for me.
Korda v Kecmanovic
I think Korda is really gonna struggle here. He is facing a big, tall young guy with a canon for a serve. His win over Sock is impressive (American at home), and he took care of Felix easily. Kecmanovic is also coached by David Nalbandian, who was a very tough competitor. I would be going for the Serb here.
Fritz v Paul
Was very impressed with Fritz when he played Kukushkin. Kukushkin played really well. 3rd set at 3-3 he had made just 1 unforced error. 6 games x 6 points = 36 x 6 shots ... so that's 1 unforced error in 100 ball strikes. But Fritz matched him. Fritz also showed a side of his game I had not seen before, hitting the ball very hard, and changing pace really well. Combined with a great serve. Only one winner here and it's Fritz.
Tsitsipas v De Minaur
I'm not impressed with Tsitsipas. I don't like the coaching, and it's crazy that a player should be so dependent on info/encouragement  from his box, at this stage. Tennis is an individual sport, and at some point you have to figure things out yourself. I don't think Tsitsipas dos this well.
De Minaur is actually knocking on the 'next level' door. He's so close, and just needs to add a tiny bit more to his game to get there. Maybe a little confidence, or a slight change in tactics. I think he matches up very well with Tsitsipas, and probably wins here. I think the over 21.5 games is a decent bet, for me better than the De Minaur +3.5 game handicap. I'll go De Minaur outright win here.
 
Finding the tennis quite difficult to watch. Most of the time the view is from a camera that must be 16 rows up and back from the courts. Makes a hideous picture. Court not framed well, and you don't see the flight/height of the ball. Then add in some motor mouth, gibberish commentator that just talks ?, and  its seriously annoying. 

The men's side of the draw looks tough today. I'm asking myself the question 'who looks overrated, and who could possibly be beaten?" For me Medvedev and ALcaraz are probably too strong for their opponents but unbettable at those odds. So that leaves another 6 matches;
Brooksby v Bautista Agut.   
If I look at this match you know what Bautista AGut can bring. Brooksby is still a work in progress. If he puts it together, he's a very difficult customer. I think this is relatively close but Brooksby just comes through. Spanish players are physically tough, having developed their skills on clay, so Bautista Agut will be no pushover.
Karatsev v Hurkacz. 
Only one winner here and it's Hurkacz. I think he has more than enough game to cover the -3.5 game handicap (odds of even money on bet365). The other bet that interests me is Hurkacz t win 2-0 in sets which is just over even money. Will go with that (1.18 on bet365).
Harris v Nishioka
Harris as a favorite, just scares me. Even though he had a very good win last match, he is just too inconsistent at the moment. The problem for a big server, is that you don't develop a really solid ground game. You don't need to, because most of the time the return of serve doesn't come back, or it's a semi-dolly that you can finish. So when the serve comes back reasonably well, your game/fitness has not suitably developed (very much like Rybakina). This is probably backed up by the points won on 2nd serve percentage. No bet for me.
Korda v Kecmanovic
I think Korda is really gonna struggle here. He is facing a big, tall young guy with a canon for a serve. His win over Sock is impressive (American at home), and he took care of Felix easily. Kecmanovic is also coached by David Nalbandian, who was a very tough competitor. I would be going for the Serb here.
Fritz v Paul
Was very impressed with Fritz when he played Kukushkin. Kukushkin played really well. 3rd set at 3-3 he had made just 1 unforced error. 6 games x 6 points = 36 x 6 shots ... so that's 1 unforced error in 100 ball strikes. But Fritz matched him. Fritz also showed a side of his game I had not seen before, hitting the ball very hard, and changing pace really well. Combined with a great serve. Only one winner here and it's Fritz.
Tsitsipas v De Minaur
I'm not impressed with Tsitsipas. I don't like the coaching, and it's crazy that a player should be so dependent on info/encouragement  from his box, at this stage. Tennis is an individual sport, and at some point you have to figure things out yourself. I don't think Tsitsipas dos this well.
De Minaur is actually knocking on the 'next level' door. He's so close, and just needs to add a tiny bit more to his game to get there. Maybe a little confidence, or a slight change in tactics. I think he matches up very well with Tsitsipas, and probably wins here. I think the over 21.5 games is a decent bet, for me better than the De Minaur +3.5 game handicap. I'll go De Minaur outright win here.
 
Finding the tennis quite difficult to watch. Most of the time the view is from a camera that must be 16 rows up and back from the courts. Makes a hideous picture. Court not framed well, and you don't see the flight/height of the ball. Then add in some motor mouth, gibberish commentator that just talks ?, and  its seriously annoying. 

Thank you very much for your predictions, got Kecmanovic at 2.90 for a beautiful win. The day before yesterday, if Bouzkova had won one set I would have cashed in 600£ :(. Thanks again for the beautiful tip.

I'm glad you won. Hopefully we can repeat it today.

Busta for me is not hitting the ball hard. The only thing against Sinner is that he can be overpowered, but I really don't think Busta has the power to do it. Also, he is not in great form, because he should not be losing to Munar, Giron and Fognini.

Busta for me is not hitting the ball hard. The only thing against Sinner is that he can be overpowered, but I really don't think Busta has the power to do it. Also, he is not in great form, because he should not be losing to Munar, Giron and Fognini.

Busta for me is not hitting the ball hard. The only thing against Sinner is that he can be overpowered, but I really don't think Busta has the power to do it. Also, he is not in great form, because he should not be losing to Munar, Giron and Fognini.

Tommy Paul over Khachanov. Khachanov ran into a buzz saw in Brooksby in Indian Wells. Probably one of his worst matches and beatings in a while. So it's been almost 2 weeks waiting for his next competitive match. It's a lot of sitting around, practice and killing time, and it's not great for a pro athlete.  Tommy Paul on a pretty decent run in 2022. Won 11 of last 17 matches and getting past the 1st match in each of his last 6 tournaments. Khachanov may just come out a little flat here and get blasted away by a home boy, crowd favorite.
Someone who is playing very well is Pedro Martinez. I dunno when, but I saw him on TV in an indoor event last year (somewhere in Europe), and he looked so good. Great movement, and rock solid ball striking. Perfect matchup for him with Giron's grinder style.
I would be betting against almost all the time is Karatsev. Had a crazy year last year, but I think he has overplayed, and opponents are figuring him out. Only problem is that Humbert, is on a stinker of a run. Will still back Humbert, but just 1/2 of an already small stake. Maybe games over 22.5
My feeling is that Shapavalov get's beaten by Harris. Harris is actually a decent player. Had a terrible start to 2022, but you don't forget how to play in a couple of months. I just don't like Shapa's 1 handed huge swinging backhand. Looks good, but when it goes off, there is no quick fix. At some stage the real Harris will show up, and he will be hard tobeat behind a really tricky serve.
My last upset is Kecmnovic to beat Auger Aliasimme. I just don't rate Felix. Look, he's a fantastic player, but he seems like a male version of Camilia Giorgi to me. Has talent, but a little one dimensional, and wants to hit the cover off the ball. Zverev and Auger-Aliasimme very similar to me. Look good, but are not great thinkers on the court. Kecmanovic, only 22, is a very good player. Had a great Indian Wells beating Broady,Cilic, van de Zandschulp and Berrettini, losing in 3 to eventual tournament winner (Fritz).
Brooksyby over Basilasvili and Fritz over Kukushkin, and Alcaraz over CIlic just a low priced treble for me.

What an excellent day. Just Karatsev spoiling the party against a poor Humbert. Sunday's matches look poor. WOn't be betting matches at 1.6 to 10 and lower, so it only leaves 4 men's matches. Sinner v Carreno-busta is a very good match up for Sinner. Similar playing styles, both baseliners. Sinner to win relatively easily here.
I think Zverev will have big problems with McDonald. Not playing great, had one match and out at Indian Wells, and a difficult 3 setter in 1st match here. He's not playing well. 
 
Not really crazy about any of the woman's matches. I think Kudermetova wins, and would be taking a Haddad Maia to beat Kalinina.  She played very well against Sakkari, and Kalinina is nowhere near as good. 

It's much easier for an American to feel at home all over the USA. Most of it looks and feels very similar. The same stores, over and over and over again. Starbucks, chick-Fil-A, Gap, Marriott, Hyatt, Walmart, Target,  Macy's, 7-eleven, Nordstrom etc etc. It provides a comfort-blanket for most US players. 
When they come to Europe it's a mission. Need visa's, don't speak the languages etc. This feeling of being in a strange, unknown country adds stress. When the European clay court season starts, the advantage is definitely with the European players. They know the conditions, most speak multiple languages. They feel more at home, and are generally better travelers.
So players sometimes take a chance and show up very late for a tournament on the other side of the world. Nobody really wants to sit around a week in advance and be practicing away from home. So that first match after travel, especially long travel, with time zones, puts the traveler in a compromised, weaker position, especially when they are playing a local or semi local player (who has perhaps travelled a few hours, and not 15).
So the 1st match a traveler plays is their 'red-zone', where the chance of them losing is not reflected accurately in the odds. FOr example , Bencic plays badly 1st match at Indian Wells , but will go much deeper in Miami as she acclimates, Another example would be Lloyd Harris, who showed up for the Aussie open, didn't play a warm up tournament, played well below his ability,  and got knocked out 1st round by an Aussie.

Sorry, my bad, I apologise. Not quite sure hw I got the opponents wrong? . I did mean the Alcaraz, Fritz and Brooksby to win.  I think I have too much ?going on. Managed to break a 55 inch TV and it has annoyed me no end. Was watching tennis at 5am this morning, which probably doesn't help either.

It's much easier for an American to feel at home all over the USA. Most of it looks and feels very similar. The same stores, over and over and over again. Starbucks, chick-Fil-A, Gap, Marriott, Hyatt, Walmart, Target,  Macy's, 7-eleven, Nordstrom etc etc. It provides a comfort-blanket for most US players. 
When they come to Europe it's a mission. Need visa's, don't speak the languages etc. This feeling of being in a strange, unknown country adds stress. When the European clay court season starts, the advantage is definitely with the European players. They know the conditions, most speak multiple languages. They feel more at home, and are generally better travelers.
So players sometimes take a chance and show up very late for a tournament on the other side of the world. Nobody really wants to sit around a week in advance and be practicing away from home. So that first match after travel, especially long travel, with time zones, puts the traveler in a compromised, weaker position, especially when they are playing a local or semi local player (who has perhaps travelled a few hours, and not 15).
So the 1st match a traveler plays is their 'red-zone', where the chance of them losing is not reflected accurately in the odds. FOr example , Bencic plays badly 1st match at Indian Wells , but will go much deeper in Miami as she acclimates, Another example would be Lloyd Harris, who showed up for the Aussie open, didn't play a warm up tournament, played well below his ability,  and got knocked out 1st round by an Aussie.

It's much easier for an American to feel at home all over the USA. Most of it looks and feels very similar. The same stores, over and over and over again. Starbucks, chick-Fil-A, Gap, Marriott, Hyatt, Walmart, Target,  Macy's, 7-eleven, Nordstrom etc etc. It provides a comfort-blanket for most US players. 
When they come to Europe it's a mission. Need visa's, don't speak the languages etc. This feeling of being in a strange, unknown country adds stress. When the European clay court season starts, the advantage is definitely with the European players. They know the conditions, most speak multiple languages. They feel more at home, and are generally better travelers.
So players sometimes take a chance and show up very late for a tournament on the other side of the world. Nobody really wants to sit around a week in advance and be practicing away from home. So that first match after travel, especially long travel, with time zones, puts the traveler in a compromised, weaker position, especially when they are playing a local or semi local player (who has perhaps travelled a few hours, and not 15).
So the 1st match a traveler plays is their 'red-zone', where the chance of them losing is not reflected accurately in the odds. FOr example , Bencic plays badly 1st match at Indian Wells , but will go much deeper in Miami as she acclimates, Another example would be Lloyd Harris, who showed up for the Aussie open, didn't play a warm up tournament, played well below his ability,  and got knocked out 1st round by an Aussie.

It's much easier for an American to feel at home all over the USA. Most of it looks and feels very similar. The same stores, over and over and over again. Starbucks, chick-Fil-A, Gap, Marriott, Hyatt, Walmart, Target,  Macy's, 7-eleven, Nordstrom etc etc. It provides a comfort-blanket for most US players. 
When they come to Europe it's a mission. Need visa's, don't speak the languages etc. This feeling of being in a strange, unknown country adds stress. When the European clay court season starts, the advantage is definitely with the European players. They know the conditions, most speak multiple languages. They feel more at home, and are generally better travelers.
So players sometimes take a chance and show up very late for a tournament on the other side of the world. Nobody really wants to sit around a week in advance and be practicing away from home. So that first match after travel, especially long travel, with time zones, puts the traveler in a compromised, weaker position, especially when they are playing a local or semi local player (who has perhaps travelled a few hours, and not 15).
So the 1st match a traveler plays is their 'red-zone', where the chance of them losing is not reflected accurately in the odds. FOr example , Bencic plays badly 1st match at Indian Wells , but will go much deeper in Miami as she acclimates, Another example would be Lloyd Harris, who showed up for the Aussie open, didn't play a warm up tournament, played well below his ability,  and got knocked out 1st round by an Aussie.

I just thought Martinez played Garin & Alcaraz played Fucsovics and not Giron & Cilic..
Ps. Neilovan, im not nitpicking, just thinking it was wrong players, thats normally an important thing in a tennis match..... But maybe im blind and out of line, seing wrong players my self.. Sorry, but to me they play/ed two other players