Bronxie

1st and 2nd ....+100.00....merry Xmas 🎁

Bonkers !

Looking at all the above, personally i would just say "sod it" and take up fookin knitting or something. Jesus H Christmas, life was so simple at the bookie shop back in the recent past.

I agree, once it becomes a chore or distracts from more important uses of your time then it is time for it to take a bit of a backseat.
In my case I need to spend more time on my share investments as this is my main source of income. I also now have grandkids.
Also, without being morbid, as we get older the potential benefit of our "work" becomes less. I'd be a bit cheesed off to discover the ultimate system when I am 90 and then drop dead the day later.

All very well Micheal and i do not dispute what you are saying but you or someone said how come i can still get a bet on with mainstream bookies? How long do you think i would last doing what you suggested? Add to that this has been my best year in ten, i got lucky with half a dozen Lucky15's  over or around £1000 and another half a dozen that returned around £400-£800 as you have realised that is quite rare and you need good ammunition to achieve that. Remember once i said that my worse year i lost a small amount and the reason for that was i got lazy through losing my enthusiasm? (resurrected when i joined this site to a good degree) The last few months i have just been going through the motions and that is a big problem. I am 65 now and have other interests like fishing, painting and writing and i am also building a trainset in my loft, i also have a workshop in my garage which i like to potter about in not to mention two more new Grandkids. I enjoy this site and will continue to participate in the comps and the occasional piss take of the unsensitive sorts and i am quite happy to answer any questions from anyone if they need an opinion or advice.

Ground at Ascot is very heavy currently ....really don't like the look of it ....so rated the stayers hurdle at haydock so far ......going to change tack and fully  focus on the big Saturday races and trying to get some big wins on the board so I'm going to choose two big Saturday races from now on and place 10pts Ew on the top 2 in both races .....if the any returns I'll pocket half and roll the other half on to the next weekends big race as a bonus win .....should give a bit of excitement over the coming months 💰
Hay 2.20 
Bold endeavour.  ,9.0 12/1 
Lord snootie. 8.9 7/1 
Wakool.  8.2 
Schalke.  8.2 
10pt Ew top 2 😊
 

That is a remarkable return, I am happy if I can make a 5% return. With a ROI like yours I would be staking much higher amounts. I'd certainly be using the £17k profit you have made this year as stake next year, this would result in you multiplying your stake by roughly 4 times and if your returns continue as they are you would make £68,000 profit this year, that would probably be worth the effort.

2.30 Navan - COKO BEACH 

Sonigino ..Ew 4th 

Classy stuff, as ever. Well played!

255 chelt 
Buddy one 8.8 6/1 
Come on teddy.  8.8 14/1 
Judicial law  8.2 
Difficult race to rate with a few of these reverting from chase to hurdles ....buddy one looks a solid hurdler and should run well .....the dark horse appears to be come on teddy .....he will have to overcome a 2 year layoff but it appears the handicapper has given him every chance if the trainer can get him ready ....let's take a chance for a bit of fun. ....5pt Ew ...top 2 

Trends for the PP Gold Cup
Light weights perform well. The ideal range is 10st 2lb to 11st with 8 wins from 78 runs and a profit of 51 points. The remainder have 2 wins from 98 runs with a loss of 75 points.
Horses should have winning form (but no too much). Horses with 1 win from their last 6 races have 7 wins from 57 runs with a profit of 67 points.
Horses that finished 1st last time have a poor record with just 1 win from 41 runs.
This leaves just 1 horse, IL RIDOTO at 10/1 5 places
 

I hope whatever you decide to do works out really well for you. It most probably will as you obviously know what you're talking about.
I hope you don't mind but I've been jumping on the back of some of your ante post tips.
I did Corach Rambler,Ace Impact plus I've done Nemean Lion for tomorrow.
I simply don't have enough time to study.
Anyway good luck with whatever you do and thanks for all your help.
Tony

That's a shame .....but I get where your coming from ......I'm a professional chef in my day job and my biggest handicap is finding time to rate .....if I've been in a kitchen 10 hrs the last thing I wanna do is come home and rate so I do miss out sometimes ......
It's nice to win of course and I've had some fab wins but I rate and get involved purely for the enjoyment of "getting involved"....and that's the truth ....I love horses. ...Im in awe when I'm standing near the rails and I see them take off like they are flying  ....and their intelligence never fails to amaze me .....it's like doing a crossword ....I like the challenge of tackling a race and the money really is 2nd rated for me .....I very much get frustrated sometimes when I've spent an hour rating a race only for 3 donkeys to fill the places and my selections rolling in 6th and 9th ..lol ....but that's racing .....it's not personal .....it's just how it works  ....as soon as I've seen the result ..the race is forgotten ....and I move on to the next ....
Racing enlightens my life ....challenges me .....some people might find the tackling of a huge handicap daunting or really hard work but I find it soothing 😁....it helps me unwind and there's the social aspect too ...either going to races with friends or coming on the forum it's nice to connect and share thoughts and listen to people's points of views which never fails to fascinate me .....
I hope you find your mojo and stick with us 👍

Hi all, I am brand new (10 mins ago!) to this forum and only been watching racing for 2 years now but I love it and I love reading all of your write ups, I admire the knowledge and passion!
I was watching the racing  at Newcastle on sky yesterday while "Working from home" 🤣 and just wanted to note what I thought would a big factor and may sway some decisions... draws from the middle to high were running really well, some at good prices. So middle to stand side. I just got Sir Maxi in the first with this in mind. There's my 2 pence! Good luck to you all with your selections today! Ching ching!

November p/l -£15.00
September '23 to date p/l -£64.63

November p/l -£15.00
September '23 to date p/l -£64.63

Gentlemansgame - Cheltenham Gold Cup - 25/1 - WH

Running total -£137.78
Bet 85
 

Here is what i am backing, despite the Europeans poor record at Santa Anita i am a sucker for our runners so have put the best speed figures in for the 2yo (mainly Friday). I think Valiant force is well over priced at 18/1 last time it ran on this sort of ground it won at Ascot (150/1) producing a speed figure 1 point shy of Big Evs best Speed figure can smell a bit of value in this race so will bob a few rfc in on the brits. I am not going to back many singles and certainly not to any sort of decent money so will mess about with RFC and lucky 15's £50 quid bank over the two days.
Friday
630 Mo Fox Givin                                             LOST
740 Elm Drive                                                   LOST
900 Valiant Force/Tiger Belle                         2ND/UP
940 Tamara (only if 1/1 or better)                 LOST
1020 Porta Fortuna/Carlas Way                    2ND/UP
1100 no bet
1140 River Tiber at a pinch                             NR
Saturday
510 Salesman (good form in France when trained by Fabre a shrewd switch to being trained in the US)                                    WON 9/2 
550 Silver knot (tentative)                                                                                                                                                                              2ND
630 no bet
710 Fev Rover is a nice price with (Inspiral up in trip is an issue for me) rfc with the uk runners excluding Inspiral. Fair play i couldn't see Inspiral winning but thats racing, holding hands up here, great riding from Dettori.
750 Kirstenbosch
830 Mawj has been here in USA and had a race so no worry about long layoff but i think Astronomer EW (good Price) and Kelina has a chance.
910 no bet
950 very hard race to call so Baladeer ew at about 50/1 and Onesto is worth a sheckel or two
1040 Not the best Classic, Ushba Tesoro (Japan) looks special and a little ew on Dreamlike at 33/1
1125 Good race this Caravel won last year, will have a nibble at Jasper Krone (Japan) ew
1159 No bet Good Luck to one and All

First thing to say here is don't fall for the draw bias and the scaremongers if you fancy a horse back it i was going to go back  8 breeders cups run at Santa Anita but realised after 4 that it wouldn't produce much difference the table below shows the last 4 Breeders Cup running's at said track. As can be seen the horses at both Turf and Dirt tracks will win from any draw if they are good enough.  sample size is not huge but it is better than going in blind, outside traps are a bit deceptive due to the imbalance of runners (every race has at least 8-10 runners). Big Caution note here, the Brits and Europeans don't do very well at Santa Anita, half a dozen winners from around 70 races from the last 4  Breeders Cups here tells the story.
Tomorrow I will post my idea of a few winners, another caution- i have done well in past BC's but blew out last year with just 1 winner and 1 FC.

Won’t see a better race all day than the Cox Plate and I’m still not sure how Romantic Warrior managed to get his head in front on the line. Now 3/3 in the big spring Aussie races. Will attempt to make it 4/4 in the Melbourne Cup a week on Tuesday 

Five key stats to help you beat the bookies on Saturday
Fergal O'Brien has an eyecatching 45 per cent strike-rate (9-20) when sending horses to Kelso - Highland Hunter 13:29 Kelso
Emma Lavelle is one of the most in-form trainers with five winners from 15 runners (33 per cent strike-rate) in the past fortnight - Red Rookie 13:15 Cheltenham - Call To Duty 16:45
Apprentice Connor Planas has a 38 per cent strike-rate (5-13) at Doncaster - He heads to Town Moor for one mount on the Grant Tuer-trained Glorious Angel in the 5f handicap (3.20).
Clifton Warrior goes well fresh and is one to keep on side in the 2m2f novice chase - 15:42 Galway
Simon and Ed Crisford have a 40 per cent strike-rate (2-5) when fitting blinkers, a hood or a visor for the first time to their runners at this all-weather track - Karriewhitchit 18:00 Chelmsford.

Only the one race catches my attention ...
3.00 chelt 
Espoir de romay.  8.7 16/1 
Party business.   8.6 20/1 
Flight deck. 8.3. 66/1 
Very open race and hard to know who's going to be fit ....and both top rated have had wind surgery so it could help or hinder but with 6 places on offer let's just play and see what happens. .  ....5pt Ew all 3 
Good luck all who play in this race 😁

...are a good bet or not, that is the question! Separate thread so as not to clutter up the L15 thread and so those who (understandably) don't want to wade through hypothetical waffle can look away now. Basically following on from a previous discussion with @Zilzalian, all figures based on Saturday's 1:15 at Ascot.
The overround on the win market (mid morning) was 109.7% with 365 (at SP it was 113.3%). Nothing unusual there; we know that some people can make a profit from backing winners and you can reduce the disadvantage by shopping around for best price or betting at BFSP. On the forecasts it was 135.1% so 365 are taking a lot more margin out of that market than the straight win. Stating the obvious to say that makes it much harder to win betting on forecasts than it is betting to win. You could find 3 runners that you rate well clear of the field and get great value about them in the win market. Back them in the forecast market and you're either getting worse value or no value whatsoever. The three horses put up for forecast purposes were priced at 3.5, 34 and 71 to win. If you remove the bookies margin (making the simplistic assumption of it being applied equally to all runners) that implies 365 had the true odds at 3.84, 37.3 and 77.89. Compare that for the forecasts involving the 3.5 and 34 shot; the prices offered were 76.78 and 126.97 whereas the "true" prices with no margin were 103.75 and 171.57. If they applied the same lower margin to the forecasts as they do to the win market you'd have been getting a less mean 94.57 and 156.38. Out of curiosity I looked at the prices you'd get backing a horse to win by dutching all 7 relevant forecasts and also to finish second by doing the same. The 33/1 shot paid 32.35 win and 20.66 to come 2nd while the 5/2 shot paid 2.84 win and 2.92 second. Suggesting that more margin is taken out of the fancied runners than the outsiders and (perhaps) more is taken out of the 2nd place element than the win. So much for the numbers themselves, I could do with a brew before I post my (relatively brief) conclusions. Hopefully no-one's breath is excessively bated!