Blazing Bailey
-
Posts
1,836 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Posts posted by Blazing Bailey
-
-
Good points there regarding prices on the day for the shorties. They always do drift, even on weeks like this where the bookies took a bashing, they were still trying to drift the shorties.
Jimmy is right about AP but still cant help myself!
-
Two more winners on the last two days with Thistlecrack (not that taking him AP at the stage I put on the thread would have helped get a better price) and Don Cossack coming in.
In the end I managed to only not have 2 runners getting their on the day which is not too bad and I made a profit out of them, albeit not with any massive price differences. I will try the same next year and be a little more proactive as I did back Thistlecrack after his Newbury run and Ballyandy after his Ascot 2nd.
-
From any big festival, regardless of whether you win or lose, I always think it is worth looking at what you could have done better during the week or if it was simply that good, share it with the rest of us so that we can all earn some more gravy!
My opening lesson this year would to not back any of the Mullins horses antepost (unless its NRNB). I appreciate that it has always been a guessing game with him but this year showed how quick he is to reorganise the pack if a horse has to pull out or their work isn't as good. On the flip side to this, it does mean that money can be made back other trainers horses in the race if they don't turn up.
-
-
Kempton 3.15 - Might Bite 10/1 EW Hills
Kempton 5.00 - Vendredi Trois 6/1 W Hills
Uttoxeter 335 - Muhtaris 14/1 EW Bet365
Reserves
Kempton 3 50 - Orbasa 7/2 W Bet365
Kempton 5 35 - Golden Birthday 5/1 W Bet365
Good luck Bluemal!
-
Kempton 3.15 - Might Bite 10/1 Hills
-
Tomorrow looks one of the most competitive days I can ever remember at Cheltenham (albeit I have only been involved for the last 5 or 6!)
Chelt 4.50 - Childrens List 12/1 Paddy Power
Mullins likes to target a good one in this with Sir De Champs, Don Poli and Killultagh Vic winning this in the last 4 years and with that in mind I am siding with Ruby's mount. The horse is sure to enjoy the trip, ground and style of the race and whilst I am also keen on another Mullins runner Whiteout, this horse looks to have the profile of a future graded horse that Mullins obviously likes to put in this race.
-
- 130: Zubayr
- 210: John Constable
- 250: Barters Hill
- 330: Don Cossack
- 410: Mendip Express
- 450: Childrens List
- 530: Arthurs Oak
-
Great performance from Vautour but a little sick to be nabbed on the line with Road to Riches for 2nd.
-
-
I am going to echo the two judges above and side with Smart Talk.
Limini hasnt convinced me with her jumping albeit they clearly think a lot of her at home but even so I am happy to take her on with Smart Talk.
I thought she ran really well LTO at Doncaster, absolutely tanking along at the shorter trip on good ground and the second Lily Waugh is a good yardstick herself. I cant find the article but I am told that the race was run in a quick time as well and I think she is value at the current odds.
The other horse I am interesting as an outsider away from the front two is Tea in Transvaal. She has enough to find with the top two but I think she is another level above the rest and having been proven at this track and under these conditions she is an interesting bet in one of the alternative markets or maybe within a tricast.
-
I think I have a couple of interesting bigger priced fancies in this, albeit one appears more interesting than the other as the gents above have also written about him.
Niceonefrankie has form over the trip, ground and class. After winning the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup here he ran flat at Ascot the following month and subsequently didnt run again that season. He was well backed when he ran a stinker at Newbury at a time when a lot of Venetia's horses were very in and out. He was again off until last month where he ran well behind a rejuvinated and well handicapped rival who now goes to the Ryanair. He is well treated off just 3lb higher for that C&D win and as conditions look right up his street I can see him out running his odds.
The other horse I have my eye on, especially in the Betfair markets, is Bears Affair. Again conditions will be perfect and he ran a big race here last season in the Coral Cup off a big weight. He isnt quite as good over fences and his mark is lower as a result and in truth he seems to be at his best on flatter tracks such as Aintree (over fences) but I think he will enjoy a good test at this trip (previous wins over further in chases). When you look at his last 5 chase starts it includes two runs over too far at Uttoxeter, two wins at Aintree and a PU on soft ground. I dont think he is fully exposed under these circumstances and whilst winning may be one step too far I can see him running into a place. At the moment he is around 60's on Betfair for the win and around 10s for a place in the top 4.
-
I don't really see Thistlecrack being beaten in this but he is short enough. He may be bigger as the race approaches as even the great Big Bucks drifted on the day of his World Hurdle wins so I am not ruling out backing him outright.
With that in mind I will be looking in the without market.
Alpha Des Obeaux would need to improve to win this.
At Fishers Cross isnt good enough.
Aux Petit Soins isnt a betting proposition given what he has achieved.
Bobs Worth would also have to find a fair bit on his hurdles form to get involved and his well being is to be confirmed.
Kilcooley must surely have doubts about his effectiveness on this ground relative to the others. He only beat a non-stayer last time out and relished the bad ground whereas others didnt.
Martello Tower is apparently where conditions would expect him to be in his preparation however he hasnt shown any improvement this season and therefore hasnt shown any level of form which suggests he can win this.
Whisper could be an interesting outsider but his runs this season have been really poor and whilst the better ground will suit and his trainer has shown his mercurial talents in the last couple of days I could see him running well again without quite being good enough. He is 8/1 in the without market which I think is probably a fair enough price.
This leaves me with two, last years World Hurdle first and second who also have something to prove.
Cole Harden's season has revolved entirely around this race and his trainer is very bullish about his chances. He will absolutely love this quick ground which seemed to benefit front runners this time last year and I do genuinely believe that we will see same horse that ran so well last season. I'm not sure a return to even that form would make him good enough to win, but it certainly would make him good enough to see of the rest.
Saphir De Rheu is the other horse I will keep on side. He has a chequered season last year and it has been the same this year. His first two starts this year were full of promise and his poor run back over hurdles were disappointing however it was at a time when the stable were in the worst of their poor spell and his wind has been tidied since. I thought that he was a little unlucky in last years edition in that he was caught a little on the back foot when the pace lifted and he stayed on really well up the hill.
They are 7/2 and 11/2 respectively with Bet365 and again I think they are fair enough prices.
-
This looks a cracking renewal and I couldnt put you off the tips by the guys above as they too were on my shortlist for all that I have come up with a different answer!
Arpege De Alene - He was an improver over hurdles last season but returned chasing this year which didnt take off. I was keen on him when he ran back over hurdles last time out, making a mistake at the last before coming clear. He looks on a good mark, handles good ground and his trainer is in form in handicaps. At around 14's he is big enough for an EW play with 5 places.
Our Kaempfer is another that I have had an interest in before when second to the enterprisingly ridden Broxbourne and then again when brought down at Haydock when travelling well. Good ground is no problem, this test, including the hill is sure to suit him well and whilst his stables form is a slight concern I think he is on a good mark and should have conditions to suit if staying out of trouble. He would be a great EW play if he was a bit of a bigger price so I might keep my eye out again in the morning if he drifts.
Cup Final is my final selection as I could bet on this race without having a McManus runner on side. This one has probably shown his hand more than the others however I have liked the look of his recent form as I think it may underestimate him. He wants a real test and he wants genuine good ground which isnt something you can say about all of these and whilst he has had a habit of being a little disappointing and therefore I wont be backing him as heavily as the other two, this just looks like a race he will really enjoy and show his true colours.
-
No particular insight on this one but I have backed the following:
Dr Harper - Big improver novice chasing this season coming to the boil at the right time. Before he got injured he improved a bundle over hurdles for good ground and 3 miles so whilst I think he has scope on what he has achieved over a shorter trip, I also think he will improve for tomorrows conditions.
Cause of Causes - Again completely unoriginal and normally wouldnt be my type of horse given his form this year however it was the same last season and his run over a completely inadequate trip LTO wasnt without promise. The last two times at the festival he has run to a rating of 151 so under conditions he will enjoy, a top jockey on board, he looks to have plenty in hand from this mark.
Upswing - The angle here is summed up by richard-westwood above regarding his novice chase run earlier in the season on ground softer than he would have preferred. I am more than happy to put a line through his last start and he looks as though he has been saved for this race since.
-
Vautour being redirected to this race makes it a real pain in the arse now. They have said he is only 90% fit so that is enough for me to take him on, at least to an extent.
Al Ferof has to be respected for Dan Skelton but he seems to be at his best on his first run of the season and he is short enough to take a chance on Skelton changing that pattern for all that he has a big chance on his form this year.
Valseur Lido has fallen and unseated on his last two and that is enough for me to pass in a race like this.
Taquin De Seuil could be involved. He has a little to find but ran really well on his first start after injury. He did a similar thing the year before though, putting in the same figure before going off the boil. He is a price to take that chance though.
Josses Hill is more interesting now as a front runner but he has generally been sticky over his fences and given that he has a bit to find anyway, the combination of the two is enough for me not back him in a good race like this.
Dynaste has the profile of a plot for Pipe but given that this isnt a handicap it wouldnt make too much sense and I would have expected to have seen more for all that I had an interest on him AP.
The two I have gone with are Road to Riches and Village Vic.
Road to Riches loves good ground and has run really well over this trip previously at less testing trips. His trainer was confident of another good show in the Gold Cup so in this weaker race he would have a good chance. I will be splitting my stake on him on the nose in the main market and also in the without Vautour market.
Village Vic has been a big improver this year and whilst I have him on a similar rating as TDS, Al Ferof and Dynaste, Village Vic is still improving. My concern regarding the accuracy of my rating is something I am taking into account as he has improved on bad ground this winter so my stake wont be very big, however it is believed by connections that he does prefer better ground so again that could see more improvement from him. He clearly acts well at the track and is of interest EW in the without Vautour market at around 14/1.
-
Tough little race this with a handful very closely rated.
Kings Odyssey will probably prefer worse ground.
Black Hercules fell last time out and is going over a shorter trip than planned having been penciled in for the 4 miler at the beginning of the season (not that the changing plans of the stable have hurt them much!)
Outlander appears a little idle out in front and I would worry about the hill for him.
L'Ami Serge doesnt jump well enough.
Three Musketeers could be a danger but I get the feeling he was a little flattered at Newbury given his market rivals under performed / fell. I haven't been too accurate with this type of analysis so far.
This leaves Garde Le Victoire and Bristol De Mai.
GLV had the Arkle as his initial target and they are only going over this trip to avoid Douvan. He does stay further but its arguable as to whether it will suit him as well as a strongly run 2 miles and furthermore he hasnt really settled that well so far nor jumped fluently and that would concern me in a race like this.
Bristol De Mai on the other hand is solid and uncomplicated. Likely to get an easy lead, pings his fences and gallops relentlessly. This is his trip and whilst I was concerned about the ground originally, his last run suggested it wont be a problem much like it didnt when he was a good 2nd to Ar Mad on a sounder surface.
-
Thanks Boulder, same to you.
Looks like you had a decent day today as well!
-
Cheltenham 4.10 - Niceonefrankie 20/1 Bet365 EW
-
- 130: Bristol De Mai
- 210: Our Kaempfer
- 250: Road To Riches
- 330: Thistlecrack
- 410: Niceonefrankie
- 450: Smart Talk
- 530: Upswing
-
3 winners today albeit only two of them were better prices AP. Almost snuck Gods Own in there too who was a gallant 4th!
-
Blaklion is such a genuine horse. I thought he had a good EW chance but made up to see him win for a yard I respect!
-
Unreal performance... could barely believe my eyes!
-
- 1.30: Yanworth
- 2.10: More of That
- 2.50: Baoulet Delaroque
- 3.30: Un De Sceaux
- 4.10: Any Currency
- 4.50: Jaleo
- 5.30: Ballyandy
Cheltenham Lessons
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
I'm also going to add for me personally is to not be afraid to back a handful in a big handicap. The 3 handicap winners on the Friday were all the 4th horse on my list but I was conscious about how much I spent and therefore only backed 3. I did the same thing in the Betfair and the Ladbroke so even if it means dropping the stakes a little, make sure you cover your arse... or even better yet, just get the winner in the first 3 anyway!