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Blazing Bailey

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Posts posted by Blazing Bailey

    Monthly Nap Competition - Tuesday July 5th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Ponty 3.40 - Fendale 10/1 Bet365 BOG

     

    This horse is by no means a certainty as I am taking a punt on some back form from when he first joined this yard last season when running two big races at Thirsk and York. He was well below form in the Ayr Gold Cup which is a race I am always happy to forgive a poor run and likewise he was below form on his return on soft ground  23 days ago. He has plenty of room of this mark if all is well and in truth this isnt the strongest race either, depending on whether the favourite confirms his LTO form.

    Monthly Nap Competition - Wed June 22nd

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Carlisle 4.40 - Jolievitesse 10/1 EW Bet365

     

    Backing a horse that has only won once in 15 starts isnt usually my thing but this horse has had a couple of excuses for not winning or finishing closer on his last two starts when he has found trouble at crucial moments, on the last occasion narrowly going down by half a length. Stepping back up in trip will suit and this track will also suit the horses running style and the trainer also seems in decent knick.

    Friday Racing (Ascot day 4)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    19 hours ago, Blazing Bailey said:

    Ascot

    2.30

    Typically competitive renewal and whilst Cuff looks strong on paper, her big improvement came on good ground and that is unlikely to be the case tomorrow so considering the price I have looked elsewhere. Romantic View (10/1 Skybet) and Perfect Madge (25/1 EW Coral - 1/4 odds & 4 places) are the two I will side with. I really like the Ascot race that Romantic View debuted in as it looked good at the time and the form has worked out. She then went on to bolt up in another decent enough race at Goodwood showing a smart turn of foot which isnt always easy to do at that track, albeit front running may have flattered her a little in that respect. Perfect Madge's trainer Kevin Ryan has had a horse placed in this race twice in the last 5 years so it is a race that he knows well so to speak. Bred for further she will really appreciate the extra furlong and her York run looks pretty good considering things didnt go right for her throughout.

    3.05

    Could almost stick a pin in this and hope for the best. My main bet will be on Humphrey Bogart (8/1 Bet365) who ran well when winning the Derby trial and ran respectably all things considered in the Derby itself. I would have expected him to be at least a couple of points shorter and therefore represents good value. I will also have a saver on a horse that opposed him in both those races Across The Stars (14/1 Betfair). He ran well enough at Lingfield in 3rd and certainly had promise before failing to handle Epsom at all. I just get the impression that he is a horse that will relish a galloping track and considering connections could have exploited a good looking handicap mark before going down the Derby route, they must think that they have a serious horse there somewhere.

    3.40

    This should be about Quiet Reflection but there is no juice in her price now and after quite a lot of deliberation I have sided with the horse that she beat last time out in Donjuan Triumphant (11/2 William Hill). He is an improver who will enjoy the ground conditions. He has a 3lb swing, ground more in his favour and race sharpness now so whilst it might not be enough, he should hopefully give it a good go.

    4.20

    I dont know what to make of Jet Setting as it was a massive improvement last time out and at 2/1 I am happy to look elsewhere. There were a few that I couldn't really split so when considering price, I have gone for Besharah (20/1 EW - Bet365 1/4 1-3). Proven on the ground, and seemingly proved herself at the trip last time out behind a couple of these, she likes Ascot at this time of the year and if her stamina does hold out, this is a really big price.

    5.00

    This is all about Elite Army for me as I have suggested in the BBOTD thread. I have nibbled at a couple of other savers mind you in Cymro (12/1 Skybet) who is very progressive and will relish conditions and Felix Mendelsshon (25/1 Coral) who showed decent placed form in listed and group races last season but flopped on reappearance. If he runs to that form he will be involved but I cant be confident of him doing so, however I am willing to give him one last chance to do so, especially considering the price.

    5.35

    I have no opinion whatsoever on this waste of a decent race. Races this long should have hurdles or fences in the way!

     

    Just the one today but at least it was a decent price! Elite Army looked the winner until a few hundred yards before the line as well.

    The two 2yos were very disappointing and even more annoyingly I had the winner as joint top selection with Romantic View but decided against her because the yard were so strongly behind Cuff.

    Also annoyingly is that Qemeh came out officially 2nd on my ratings behind Jet Setting (whom I had reservations about) but I got a little greedy with the price of Besharah who was disappointing.

    Quiet Reflection was impressive in the Commonwealth but Donjuan was really poor considering conditions were so firmly in his favour. Its interesting to see Kachy run so well over 6 as nothing about that horse screamed to me that today's test would suit him.

    Friday Racing (Ascot day 4)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Ascot

    2.30

    Typically competitive renewal and whilst Cuff looks strong on paper, her big improvement came on good ground and that is unlikely to be the case tomorrow so considering the price I have looked elsewhere. Romantic View (10/1 Skybet) and Perfect Madge (25/1 EW Coral - 1/4 odds & 4 places) are the two I will side with. I really like the Ascot race that Romantic View debuted in as it looked good at the time and the form has worked out. She then went on to bolt up in another decent enough race at Goodwood showing a smart turn of foot which isnt always easy to do at that track, albeit front running may have flattered her a little in that respect. Perfect Madge's trainer Kevin Ryan has had a horse placed in this race twice in the last 5 years so it is a race that he knows well so to speak. Bred for further she will really appreciate the extra furlong and her York run looks pretty good considering things didnt go right for her throughout.

    3.05

    Could almost stick a pin in this and hope for the best. My main bet will be on Humphrey Bogart (8/1 Bet365) who ran well when winning the Derby trial and ran respectably all things considered in the Derby itself. I would have expected him to be at least a couple of points shorter and therefore represents good value. I will also have a saver on a horse that opposed him in both those races Across The Stars (14/1 Betfair). He ran well enough at Lingfield in 3rd and certainly had promise before failing to handle Epsom at all. I just get the impression that he is a horse that will relish a galloping track and considering connections could have exploited a good looking handicap mark before going down the Derby route, they must think that they have a serious horse there somewhere.

    3.40

    This should be about Quiet Reflection but there is no juice in her price now and after quite a lot of deliberation I have sided with the horse that she beat last time out in Donjuan Triumphant (11/2 William Hill). He is an improver who will enjoy the ground conditions. He has a 3lb swing, ground more in his favour and race sharpness now so whilst it might not be enough, he should hopefully give it a good go.

    4.20

    I dont know what to make of Jet Setting as it was a massive improvement last time out and at 2/1 I am happy to look elsewhere. There were a few that I couldn't really split so when considering price, I have gone for Besharah (20/1 EW - Bet365 1/4 1-3). Proven on the ground, and seemingly proved herself at the trip last time out behind a couple of these, she likes Ascot at this time of the year and if her stamina does hold out, this is a really big price.

    5.00

    This is all about Elite Army for me as I have suggested in the BBOTD thread. I have nibbled at a couple of other savers mind you in Cymro (12/1 Skybet) who is very progressive and will relish conditions and Felix Mendelsshon (25/1 Coral) who showed decent placed form in listed and group races last season but flopped on reappearance. If he runs to that form he will be involved but I cant be confident of him doing so, however I am willing to give him one last chance to do so, especially considering the price.

    5.35

    I have no opinion whatsoever on this waste of a decent race. Races this long should have hurdles or fences in the way!

     

    Monthly Nap Competition - Friday June 17th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Ascot 5.00 Elite Army 6/1 Bet365

     

    Backing a 6/1 shot in a 19 runner field isnt normally my cup of tea but I think this horse is really well in off 105 especially when you look at his last two RPR's of 112 and 109. Those figures were gained either side of a break from the track and on good to firm at Ascot and whilst the ground appeared to be an immediate concern, the horse has already won on GS (respectable RPR at that stage of his career) and having looked at his sire stats, his progeny have a better record on soft/heavy than they do on GF so that really shouldn't pose a problem.

     

    Monthly Nap Competition - Sunday June 12th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Salisbury 2.45 - King Crimson 7/1 Betvictor

     

    This horse has been in good form recently winning at Brighton and going close at Newmarket behind an improving type. He flopped next time out but he has an excuse having missed the break but still ran well enough in the circumstances. I expect him to show that he is still in form and whilst the short priced favourite is likely to improve, he hasnt done anything to suggest that he has shown form above his current mark meaning that the selections price looks a lot bigger than it should be.

    Monthly Nap Competition - Saturday June 11th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    York 5.20 - Pomme De Terre 22/1 Corals EW

    I am not sure this is the strongest race and I think this horse has been markedly overlooked in the market.

    He flopped last time out when he reportedly ran flat but his two runs before that, a win on soft at Thirsk and a 2nd at Ayr on good show him to be an improving type. He must get back to that form and this is a step up in class to those races but conditions will suit, I am confident he is well handicapped, and if all is well then the horse should go close.

     

     

    Monthly Nap Competition - Saturday June 11th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    14 hours ago, bluemal said:

    Musselburgh 3.45 : Red Baron @ 10/1 Betway e/w thanks

    Red Baron.....from Eric Alston yard the 7yo finished last season off here over 5f good to firm when unlucky in 2nd place as he crossed over from one side to the other when leading which may have cost him the win losing by 2.5 lengths ,

    He's had 4 races so far this season with his last race coming 28 days ago at Thirsk 5f good to firm when again 2nd place finish off 100 mark with regular jockey Neil Farley in saddle ,

    Red Baron won this last year and has now won four times at the track and also won another four races at 5f on ground varying from good to firm to soft and on the all-weather, He should be there in frame

    I think is sure to run well in this and backed him myself. GL.

    Monthly Nap Competition - Thursday June 9th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Newbury 3.40 - Iconic 22/1 Paddy Power EW

     

    I just get the feeling this horse is being a little overlooked by the market, for all that she is in a very competitive race. She ran some really nice races last season, putting up some decent figures in the process. She had excuses at both Pontefract and Kempton when she disappointed and therefore comes here a much bigger price that she should be.

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