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Blazing Bailey

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Posts posted by Blazing Bailey

    Glorious goodwood day 5 Saturday

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    With so much racing on today its either going to go very well or very badly today!

     

    Goodwood 2.00

    As you would expect this is a bloody competitive handicap so there are plenty with live chances. My main bet will be on Seeking Magic (16/1). He ran well here earlier in the year only to be disqualified and he has won at this meeting before (either this race or the main race). There is plenty to like about him.

    Projection is the up and coming horse in this race and while on form alone he probably does justify favouritism his trainer has mentioned that he may have been cast in his box and that is probably just enough to put me off backing him in such a big race.

    Nuno Tristan is a horse I respect a lot but his improvement has been over 7f and this may be too sharp so in turn I am going to have a small saver on Muir Lodge (33/1) who is dropping back in trip. He strikes me as a horse still in form and a big field handicap looks to be his bag. Whether or not this is it is certainly up for debate but he is worth a nibble at the odds.

     

    Goodwood 3.10

    I dont have a massively strong opinion on this race as Minding should win on ratings however I think there is a disparity in the market between Beautiful Romance and the rest of the field. I would have her in at 2nd favourite and heading the betting in the without market but instead she is 18/1 with Minding and 7/2 without. Given that Minding should win, I have played the without market but she certainly does appear overpriced in both.

     

    Goodwood 3.45

    Another bloody tricky one. As I got half way through this field I thought I had the winners covered but there are horses down the bottom like Dancing Star, Sir Robert Cheval, Raucous and Go Far on handy enough marks as well. However the 4 at the top of my list are Kimberella, Orions Bow, Toofi and Growl. I am going to take Toofi out because I just think that handier ridden horses have a slightly better advantage at Goodwood and I think that was ultimately the difference between him winning and not winning last year. Kimberella doesnt really need much explaining given recent exploits but the ground will be on the quicker side for him now and he hasnt really shone at Goodwood before. He has run well at Epsom though and 14/1 is reasonable enough for a saver or EW bet. The two I am going to focus on are Orions Bow (7/1) and Growl (14/1). Orions Bow is a horse massively on the upgrade and he absolutely took apart his field LTO. Everything seems to be in his favour and he should be there or thereabouts. Growl has Ryan Moore on board for the first time today and he looks very progressive at 6f. He ran well enough in another good race over 7f last time but I do think this will be more up his street.

     

    Newmarket 4.35

    Above N Beyond is my NAP and the comments are in the NAP of the day thread.

     

    Newmarket 5.45

    Another good quality sprint but this time at HQ. Flowers on Venus (5/1) is a clear pick for me in this race, for all that I do think there are a couple of unexposed types such as Edward Lewis which may also have some weight in hand. FoV has run really well in much more competitive races than this so far this season narrowly missing out on a couple of occasions. Quick ground suits, his handy running style will suit the pace bias and he should go very close.

     

    Thirsk

    I am running out of time so I will just quickly put up my two main bets at this track. In the 3.35 George Cinq (7/1) who run well having been bang in form so far this season. He has shown form on both soft and good ground so the slightly tackier surface up north will pose no problems.

    In the 5.20 I have gone back for Pomme De Terre (17/2) who landed a right touch for me at York two runs back. This horse is better with a bit of cut and while I cant say that was the main excuse behind the poor run LTO, I wouldnt be surprised to see this progressive sort bounce back to form again at a far bigger price than he should be, especially from a good draw.

     

    Monthly Nap Competition - Saturday July 30th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Newmarket 4.35 - Above N Beyond 4/1 William Hill

    This is probably quite a tight little contest with Windfast returning to form LTO, squats showing improved form over 7f behind Librisa Breeze and the potentially well handicapped Oh This Is Us in the field however given that there arent many runners in this it could become a tactical affair and in Above N Beyond we have the most likely front runner (Windfast may also try) and I think that will also be beneficial as there appears to be a real pace bias to front runners on the July course. He can be forgiven a poor run at Ascot LTO and with conditions to suit I expect the northern raider to run a big race.

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