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Blazing Bailey

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Posts posted by Blazing Bailey

    Monthly Naps Competition, Saturday 16th April 2016

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Ayr 3.35 - Ultragold 4/1 Bet365

    I have found it tough to work out what my best bet is today mainly because of the big field and due to the fact that I fancy a few in each race so I have looked to this 7 runner chase to find one. I am a big fan of Always On The Run and as a progressive sort with an in form trainer but I think his price is short enough. Solar Impulse was a big improver at the festival for the change of headgear however its not a given that would work again and I just get the feeling that this horse benefited from the big field and fast pace and is therefore not going to get those conditions again today. Upsilon Bleu and Grey Gold are both horses that could win this race but they arent going to improve and they have their fair share of weight. Ubaltique has been better this season but I still dont trust the horse nor his trainer. De Faoithesdream has struggled recently and therefore would be a surprise winner.

    This therefore leaves Ultragold who at first glance would appear fairly exposed heading into this season however connections have worked out the key to him. He is at his best at a reasonable enough pace around 16f where he can either force the pace himself or follow behind another that will. My slight concern would be whether this track will be a little too sharp but the ground is a little more testing that his latest Newbury win so that will help and he has the same 5lb claimer on board. With the favourite setting the pace I can see Ultragold running well in behind coming to two out or maybe even one out and then it will be a test of who wants it more and the selection will without doubt put his neck out to the line.

    Saturdays Racing (Aintree, Lingfield etc..)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    9 hours ago, arsenalfh said:

    Don't fancy Holywell myself but he ran a stormer in the Gold Cup last year on pretty soft ground so I wouldn't rule him out on the basis of the ground.

    Yeh I cant work out whether it is purely a certain time of year he improves for, or whether it is the link between spring weather and spring ground that brings the improvement.

    Grand National Tips

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I am hoping that the winner comes in the form of one of these, however I havent worked out which one just yet:

     

    Morning Assembley

    Gallant Oscar

    The Druids Nephew

    Saint Are

    The Romford Pele

    Holywell

    Many Clouds

    Goonyella

    Just A Par

    Silvianaco Conti

     

    I'm not a fan of Rebecca Curtis so TRP is left alone and Many Clouds is too short. Just a Par and Goonyella have both ran poorly over these fences before and the former is out of form and his last win was a weak one. Holywell is an obvious form choice but wont enjoy the forecast rain, The Druids Nephew and Saint Are would prefer better ground but can handle soft well enough. Stamina is likely to be a big issue for Conti. The only one I know I will definitely back at this stage is Gallant Oscar (18/1 6 places BV)

    Aintree Day 2 (Friday, Inc Topham Chase)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Blazing Bailey
    Missed out the 4.40!

    I feel like tomorrow is going to be either a very good or very bad day for me as the mix of races and prices just don't seem to be a very good fit!

     

    1.40 - My four against the field are Virgilio (EW), Ma Du Fou, Blazer and Starchitect (EW). The last two have really solid big handicap form, still look progressive and cant be ignored. Virgilio was very progressive in handicaps (including over C&D) earlier in the year before taking on classier types in bad ground at Cheltenham and looks to have been targetted for this race since and likewise Ma Du Fou looks a really exciting novice who is potentially chucked in here when you look at the horses he has beaten (North Hill Harvey and Agrapart).

    2.15 - Limini is probably just about the ratings pick but is very short and next on the list is Buveur Dair who is a horse I really like and should have finished closer in the Supreme.

    2.50 - Un Tempts Pour Tout comes out top of my ratings based on his win at Cheltenham but I still have a little doubt about that run and at the prices I will again take a chance on the next best in Blaklion who is grand little horse and will fight his heart out to the finish.

    3.25 - Vautour - no more needs to be said.

    4.05 - My three in this are Village Vic, Bishops Road (EW) and Bennys Mist (EW). Village Vic's handicap form was highly progressive and he is a prominent runner who jumps really well, always a bonus over these fences. Bishops Road is highly progressive and a fancied outsider for the National (1st reserve) but he looks to have the speed for this trip (albeit the drying ground wont help). He is another who jumps well. Finally Bennys Mist is the course regular that I am picking, sometimes it just takes a familiar horse to win this type of race and this would therefore be my idea of a winner with that profile.

    4.40 - Ballydine and Ballyoptic (EW) are my two against the field. Ballyoptic comes out on top of my ratings have destroyed the field LTO and the yard think a lot of the horse judging on quotes after the race. Ballydine jumped poorly when beating Joniesofa before pushing Barters Hill all the way at Donny and comes out 3rd on my ratings behind Bellshill who has a few question marks about him currently.

    5.15 - Straight contest between Battleford and Ballyandy. The former is open to more improvement but the latter is my selection even under a penalty given how he responded to the trouble he encountered in the Champion Bumper and still managed to get up.

    Monthly Nap Comp 2nd April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Uttoxeter 4.20 - Good Vibration 9/2 William Hill

    The favourite is firmly on the upgrade but having only run 6 days ago and now pitched into a deeper race I think he can be taken on. The horse I have chosen is a progressive type himself who has showed that today's conditions will be ideal having shown a decent level of form in his novice hurdles to date before bumping into another progressive sort who has shown improved form himself. I think he is currently over priced at 9/2 and should go close.

     

    Monthly Naps Competition, Saturday 26th March 2016

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Haydock 3.45 - Thunder Sheik 20/1 Paddy Power EW

    My brain is telling me that I am being a bit of a mug for putting this one up as on the face of it, this horse has plenty enough to prove having been beaten 18 lengths and 34 lengths of his last two of three starts back from a break but all of this horses best form comes on good ground at 16f which is exactly what he gets tomorrow (assuming the rain stays away for long enough). He is up in class against a big field but my instinct is telling me that he is still well handicapped under these conditions and can go close for a stable that are doing well at the present time.

    Monthly Naps Comp, Tuesday 22nd March 2016

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Exeter 4.10 - Drop Out Joe 15/2 Paddy Power EW (if all 8 remain but win only if one drops out - if thats allowed!)

     

    This horse was progressive in the Autumn on the better ground winning at Chepstow and following up in the Badger Ales before having a break from the bad ground and running a stinker at Donny after the rain had arrived. Whilst the going was officially soft in the Badger Ales his trainer reported that he just about got away with it and if I remember rightly the heavens had opened either the day before or on the day of his Donny disappointment giving him an excuse for running so badly.

     

    The ground tomorrow is back to being good and he is at his optimum trip. Whilst his stable could be in better knick and that should be a concern, tomorrow will see him return to his ideal conditions and I expect him to return to form and show this price to be all wrong especially as there are more than enough question marks over most of the opposition.

     

     

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