amity

Osaka..so,so close..

One simple forehand  to go 40-15 in the net at 5-3

Tomorrow looks like  great day of tennis. Hopefully the weather plays along.
I really do like Monfils to beat Musetti. Monfils was pretty good in the 1st round. He's no spring chicken but he is an incredible athlete. For me Musetti has just stagnated, Burst on the scene taking 2 sets of Djoko years ago, and his game has not moved forward since. An added factor here will be a partisan French crowd that will definitely help. Should be the best match of the tornament so far.
I was very impressed with Etcheverry last round. Really tough match against Cazaux. Crowd against him, and losing the 1st set, was not easy. Yet he hung in there and won the next 3 quite easily. This is a strong guy, mentally and physically. I think he wins against Rinderknech. The consistency and patience from growing up on clay at sea level makes tough competitors.
Woman's draw packed with great matchups tomorrow as well
I think that the way Vavare Gracheva is playing she looks a really good bet against Bernarda Pera. Just beaten Krejcikova and Sakkari, and I think she continues her run here. She looks like she is playing with freedom and really enjoying herself. I was so surprised with her shot making (in both previous matches). Hardly missed a ball. One of the two biggest surprises for me. The other Cociaretto blitzing Haddad Maia.
The Kalinskaya v Andreescu match is anybody's guess. Both undercooked and not match ready. Kalinskaya should really have lost 1st round to Burel (7-6  7-5), who had so many opportunities to win. Neither of these two serving particularly well. I think that Andresscu has more than an even chance here and is worth a bet.
Kostyk v Vekic. I think Vekic is gonna win this one. Kostyk with some weird recent loses (Sherif). She is vulnerable. Vekic is a decent price here, and her recent loses have been to very good players. 
as a note...  I'm watching the Swiatek v Osaka match. Best I have seen Osaka play ... ever!
 WIping the floor with her, which is not something that happens often ... 

Burel could easily have won her match. In 24 serve games they lost their serves 15 times. Really poor serving. May as well serve it under arm.

Some of the results yesterday were just shocking. Draper losing ... seriously, he was 23 to 100 to win.
For me not value in anything under 2 to 10
Shnaider lost     odds   1.15
Krejcikova was 1.14  French open winner who can't win a match at the French since. Man she was awful. 55+ unforced in 21 games is a joke at pro level. 
 
I like a small treble today. Norrie to beat Kotov, Begu to beat Riera and Bogdan to beat Jacqemont (around 2.2 to 1)
Norrie does not have the game to beat the big boys, but it definitely works well against the 57+ rankings.
Begu is very good at the 2 set win and the 2-0 sets is also an option.
I like Bogdan. Always seems to get a tough major draw, but this matchup looks like 1 way traffic to me.  Jacquemot having a rough 2024.
 
In the longer shots I have three bets. All taken as singles
Fils v Arnaldi  . Arnaldi to win at odds around 2.3. Fils gets very emotional and the boorish French crowd will turn it into a circus. I think the emotion will cost Fils. I watched him a few weeks ago v Lajovic, and he got emotional and lost his focus.
Kecmanovic v Monteiro . Monterio to win at odds of evens. Monteiro coming though qualies but he beat Kecmanovic in Rome (close 3 setter, as well as beating Thompson and Monfils).
Kalinskaya v Clara Burel. Burel beat Svitolina recently and it was not fluke. Being a former junior #1 means that technically you are very very good. You need physicality and body growth, as well as game growth as the body adapts. Burel is serving better (much harder), and hitting the ball harder, and she is small, which makes it even more impressive. Kalinskaya also lost 4 of her last 6 clay court matches, and had a retirement. She is just here to collect her 75K USD.

You're much missed my friend 

haha, thought to myself it's been a while since I was tipping up Tennis  

Looks like you're were on the money Fader. Cobolli gave it a really good go but Ruud outlasted him in the end and now Ruud looks to be in control in the final and on his way to another Geneva title. 👍

Sorry mate, I got the names mixed up there! 🤣

I'll let @Fader know 

That's interesting @DrO Perhaps it's fairer to say he wasn't that bothered about winning. I've read in a few different places that it was a good decision for him to play a few more matches ahead of the FO, but I'm not convinced. If anything there are now even more question marks about him than there were already and that includes Djokovic questioning himself as you alluded to.

Actually,Djokovic was very disappointed with his game yesterday. I read the Serbian newspaper this morning (obviosly i'm from Serbia) with an interview with Novak where he stated that he doesn't even know how he won the second set.
Also,he said that is very hard to focus on tennis with other things on his mind.

He's definitely not satisfied with his game or with his form entering in RG. So,i wouldn't say that Novak tanked the match yesterday.

This comment is relevant to both the French Open and the still ongoing Geneva tournament. Ruud's semi vs Cobolli has been delayed til tomorrow morning and as of now he is scheduled to play his first round match in Paris on Sunday morning. Am just wondering is he really going to fancy it. 🤔
We saw Djokovic giving a very poor effort in the third set today after blitzing Machac in the second set. I'd say it's highly likely he strategically decided not to play his best in that final set so as to be somewhat fresh for Roland Garros. If Ruud wins tomorrow morning I think he would have to play the final later that day, if I'm not mistaken? Considering he's a contender for French Open, I would be somewhat surprised if he fancys playing two matches one after the other pretty much, just before Roland Garros. With that in mind, a small speculative bet on Cobolli might be worth a go, and perhaps a couple of quid on Machac for the title, as he'll be have had significantly more rest time than his opponent. 

🤞

Can't argue with that thought process at all. Djokovic tanked without a shadow of a doubt - being broken from 40-0 at the end confirmed it for me - whether Ruud will or not I'm not so sure, but it's got to be possible. The only thing I would say is that Ruud has been in the routine the last couple of years of winning in the week before the French, and so he might want to try to continue with that despite the possible time constraints.

Draws here: https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/results/SM?round=1
R1: Nadal - Zverev!

and 17!! lol how crazy. He just seems to have no fear at all, too.

niceeee, what a price that was now eh

incredible stuff from Littler. I had the 9 darter at 25s but mainly, I have him to win the Worlds now at 18s  

Wow. He really wins everything, LOL.

This is a bet against the 37+ years old Andy Murray. He has never play well on clay!
@1.67, I think it is good value on Hanfmann especially on altitude dirt. He may just make it in straight sets.

The first Q school gets underway tomorrow. Always interesting to bet on. 167 players with the bigger names coming in over the latter rounds. I'm going to have a proper look at the market later today.

Erika Andreeva to beat Fiona Ferro at 1.70 with Unibet
I'm happy to back Erika once again, she's been doing very fine recently, while Ferro doesn't have any notable results at present. Andreeva also has a far higher ceiling, and she should know the conditions better as well.

only good thing is it looks like that means Littler takes on Smith in the semi finals. That gives Littler a big chance with his record over Humphries since the final

but remember when I was on Edhouse last week and he was destroying Cross and Cross pulled something out of his ass and went on a rampage to win the match then the title? yeah, not today.