harrisman
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Posts posted by harrisman
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Killarney 16.00
Very competitive GradeB Chase with the big yards and owners all represented however 10/1 for previous CD and race winner Everlasting promise seems too large. Admittedly it is carrying more weight than previously however considering its only a 7 yo there's still a possib for some improvement and with ground in its favour as well hopefully it will go close at this unique track.
Everlastingpromise 10/1ew
- yossa6133 and The Equaliser
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13.55 La Teste
An Interesting 5 runner race in prospect with current Rouget favourite, by Frankel, a three time winner in this grade, up against a bigger priced stable mate with inform claimer aboard and a second favourite with red-hot trainer form - both dropping in class. Tactics will be very interesting in this small field. At the prices the second Rouget runner appeals more to me as an ew selection.
Mon Ouragon 6/1ew
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La Teste 15.05
Although the current favourite in the Group 3 Arab race was a 7 length winner on debut it was at a pretty low grade track and maiden. It's going up 3F today on very soft going and with Peslier taking over the reins on the second favourite, having just been pipped at the post - with the winner of that race finishing a 2 length third in a Group 2next time out, 5/1 seems far too big for me with arguably better form.
Image Du Croate 5/1ew
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22 hours ago, harrisman said:
Rather more modest fare in France today at Chantilly after yesterdays Longchamp group action.
However the 14.49 3yo 1m2f handicap on soft going here has piqued my interest. Particularly the mount ridden by Mosse, today being its handicap debut . On the face of it three pretty uninspiring runs in maidens at different tracks with seemingly different tactics employed on each occasion. However looking in more detail at the race replays it seems to have been given some very' considerate handling' and I'm quite sure it hasn't reached the limits of its ability yet. The trainer to be fair hasn't had a great strike rate in the last year, although previously was in a low/average win /place %, so wouldn't be a strong selection but in a field of very moderate individuals, some already exposed as unprogressive types, I'm happy to take an ew wager of 20/1ew for TOPCITY.
Dismal run. Broke well and going OK rounding the end into the home straight but when asked to pick up zero response and tailed off firmly last. Of course may have picked an injury or infact horse has decided it doesn't care for this racing malarkey much and if Mosse couldn't get a response then best avoided. Be interesting to see if it pops into a claimer now however or has a trainer change.
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Rather more modest fare in France today at Chantilly after yesterdays Longchamp group action.
However the 14.49 3yo 1m2f handicap on soft going here has piqued my interest. Particularly the mount ridden by Mosse, today being its handicap debut . On the face of it three pretty uninspiring runs in maidens at different tracks with seemingly different tactics employed on each occasion. However looking in more detail at the race replays it seems to have been given some very' considerate handling' and I'm quite sure it hasn't reached the limits of its ability yet. The trainer to be fair hasn't had a great strike rate in the last year, although previously was in a low/average win /place %, so wouldn't be a strong selection but in a field of very moderate individuals, some already exposed as unprogressive types, I'm happy to take an ew wager of 20/1ew for TOPCITY.
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4 hours ago, harrisman said:
Deauville 1.25
Lacuna- interesting that German trainer Henk Grewe brings this back to France after a relatively dissapointing 3rd at Compeigne when Soumillon was booked. Although it broke well it never seemed to settle and I wonder if the rail proximity, large field and course alignment had a big part to play result. Worth a look at with regards to today over a straight 7F.
No complaints beaten by winner into 2nd.would like to see it over a straight 7.Id assumed it was over the straight today.
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Deauville 1.25
Lacuna- interesting that German trainer Henk Grewe brings this back to France after a relatively dissapointing 3rd at Compeigne when Soumillon was booked. Although it broke well it never seemed to settle and I wonder if the rail proximity, large field and course alignment had a big part to play result. Worth a look at with regards to today over a straight 7F.
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MoLe Lion D'Angers
18.15 tricky trappy 7 runner race especially the distance in question, however after being pitched in to a much higher grade last time over the large Auteuil fences I expect - Heclypse Blue - under the excellent claimer Charlotte Pritchard, to appreciate dropping into a lower grade again. 9/2 ew
18.45. A Group 3 NHS flat - again a tricky 7 runner race with no less than 4 recent winners. Form is hard to assess as some of the races were on tracks not covered by the PMU, however the current fav Il Est Divin is prob the correct one, although it's possibly largely to do with the trainer/jock combination of Grosbois/Couetil leading to the cramped 6/4 odds. At the prices Insta - ridden by the excellent Alex Roussell is better value at 4/1ew.
19.15.Cross Country Chase. An very interesting finish to the card with again some of the form tricky to assess as some races were in non PMU events, however- Flashkille, with Felix De Giles on board- always a massive plus in these races-will do for me at 6/1ew
18.15 Heclypse Bleu 9/2ew
18.45 Insta 4/1ew
19.16 Flashkille 6/1ew
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An early start today at the delightfully named Senonnes-Pouance track.
9.20 Touching My Dream 5/1ew. (the dubutant American King for the Nigge yard is worth watching in the market just before the off)
9.50.Milords Song 5/1ew., although I wouldn't put you off the favourite Alba Power.
10.20 Maestro 10/1 ew
- LEE-GRAYS and alexcaruso808
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4 hours ago, harrisman said:
It's normally selections that I might be interested in trading (gen laying initially) for a place on the exchanges. Ie weak 1st /2nd favs that are short priced. I'll note down a few of these and if I don't actually lay them at the time will have a look nearer the race and if they have shortened then, if I don't feel like entering the market on the exchanges which is a different discussion, I will oppose them with a forecast as the other selections drift. 5-7 runner races work best I've found, esp handicaps, low grade in particular and tracks where even in small fields trouble in running is a regular occurrence. It does help to have a laying mindset though and, also the individuals own approach to handicapping the field and having a feel for what the prices should be.Roughly I'd want the prices on my forecast sele tions to be at least 20- 25% greater than what I feel they should be.
IE 5/1.rather than 4/1
However if there has been massive market moves to a very short priced fav I'd normally avoid the event and if there partic connections involved. Jamie, Spencer top of the list for one.
The 6.00 Chester is worth a look in this regard. A 7 1/2 Furlong event for Female amateur jockeys. I can make cases for getting the top 2/3 in the market out for a variety of reasons. My ratings have Garden Oasis and Defence Treaty 1 and 2. I can give a squeak to Fieldsm an as well. If Acquisitor drifts then it maybe worth including in a perm for 2nd place with Fieldsman who I may consider for a straight tricast as a 3rd to Garden Oasis/Defence Treaty as well.
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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:
Is it possible for you to post some of these up? I realise that if they are posted up just before the off very few members will be able to get on them, but it would be interesting to see how it works in practice and an insight into how you arrive at the selections would be useful.
It's normally selections that I might be interested in trading (gen laying initially) for a place on the exchanges. Ie weak 1st /2nd favs that are short priced. I'll note down a few of these and if I don't actually lay them at the time will have a look nearer the race and if they have shortened then, if I don't feel like entering the market on the exchanges which is a different discussion, I will oppose them with a forecast as the other selections drift. 5-7 runner races work best I've found, esp handicaps, low grade in particular and tracks where even in small fields trouble in running is a regular occurrence. It does help to have a laying mindset though and, also the individuals own approach to handicapping the field and having a feel for what the prices should be.Roughly I'd want the prices on my forecast sele tions to be at least 20- 25% greater than what I feel they should be.
IE 5/1.rather than 4/1
However if there has been massive market moves to a very short priced fav I'd normally avoid the event and if there partic connections involved. Jamie, Spencer top of the list for one.
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Actually regarding fcasts and indeed tricasts they can be some of the best value bets IMO however gen only worth placing just before the off as they are based on the SP and the make up of the race needs to be right with the type of jockey and trainer that has no interest in being placed if it can't win on a fav or 2ndfav getting out the frame.
There's always a few everyday if you know what you are looking for and at the right prices you only need to get the occasional hit to be in profit.
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11.00. Aix-Les-Bains
Invincible Fighter 4/1.ew
After yesterday's success by an excellent ride from a conditional I make no excuse for today's selection by another conditional very good value for her claim. In a relatively weak race full of a fair bit of also-rans I expect the selection to be fighting out the finish.
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16.20 La Teste
At the prices 5/1 ew PP. Happy Thoughts - has to be the selection with a talented conditional aboard. Although stablemates tricky to compare their most recent runs as the races were very different but with the conditional claim now it feels Overpriced compared to the short priced favourite
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The Listed 4.14 at Chantilly has two interesting German raiders,
Praetorious and Adrian with the latter being of particular note. Both worth consideration
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Have to say that regardless of his selections his copy is always worth reading for little snippets about the French racing scene that you may not have come across before. Daqman the same on the Betdaq site
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Quite possibly although quite a competitive looking affair to me. However the stats and jockey bookings are too positive for me not to have an interest, although I may pop another in a permed fcast as well when I have a further look.
Mind you I thought so a few days ago when Kevin Ryan's sprinter absolutely destroyed his field.!
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Worth noting the two British raiders in the Listed at Longchamp today.
The larger priced Aura Blue, ridden by big race MOM Mendzibal, may have the most scope for improvement. In either case the stable stats on their relatively in - frequent raids to France in particular are worth noting.
French Racing ???
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
A win and a place yesterday in France, hoping for more of the same in two hurdles at Nancy, both with British interest.
11.50 Peregrina 10/3ew. Reveley booked, backed down already from forecast price.
10.50 Walkin out. Felix De Giles booked for the ride for the noted Cottin yard. Interesting that it is owned by Robert Waley Cohen. Could well be worth following in that regard to see where it goes next. 8/1ew