harrisman
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Posts posted by harrisman
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Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday 21st July Cartmel 3.35 Colditz 4/1 general trainer Richard Fords sole runner on the card-his Cartmel stat's are 5/12-42% for chases here to a level stake profit of £25.50 AP won on this horse previously however it's on nearly the same weight with the claimers allowance. Looking at the opposition I'll be very surprsied if it doesn't place so assuming there are no non runners I'll be playing it E/W 1.5 points
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Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday 21st July
I actually think this is a much more open handicap than the betting suggests and feel that some of the prices are based purely on reputation of the relevant trainer and jockey bookings. A more competitive race than normal for Cartmel I would say - owing to the described going and the unusual nature of the course I am going with a selection right near the bottom of the weights which finished 2nd in june at newcastle over similar distance. The trainer-Sophie Leech has actually a better record here at Cartmel with Chases however she is having a reasonable season so far from her runners with a good % of places as well. In it's flat career it was running in Class 2 races and seemed to have no problems with a similar surface at newcastle last time. Still quite unexposed really and maybe running off a potentially very lenient mark on softish conditions there may still be some pace left in the tank at the finish on the flat. Selection :Cartmel 5.25 Keenes Day-20/1 PPower bet365 1 point E/W I also think this is an excellent race for some small stakes exotics. I'll be doing a combination fcasts- keenes day/makhzoon/los nadis/shoe gazer and maybe tcsts as well.5.25 Cartmel Totepool Cumbria Crystal Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (2m6f) VICTOR LEUDORUM 4pts @ 7/1 bog (Bet365) Progressive 5yo (the youngest of the group) trained by Charlie Mann who has collected 4 wins in his last 4 races, improving race after race and winning all of them in impressive style. No fear for the distance and goes on any ground, is of course still very lightly raced and absolutely unexposed and his entry handicap mark of 136 doesn't seem a big obstacle if he can keep on progressing even if this is a big field with a few high quality handicappers, with most of the top stables well represented, but he beat already a lot of good horses and was never asked to go close to his limits so he could well prove to be a Grade hurdler this year and in that prospect a win in a big handicap off 136 would seem more than achievable especially with a valuable 7lb claimer in Gavin Sheehan confirmed on board after he rode Victor Leudorum on his last two winning outs. I couldn't totally dismiss any of the other 15 runners but none of them seems to have so much scope for improvement and most of them have important question marks such as the ground, the trip, the track and of course above all the skill and form to beat their current handicap mark in this race. -
Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday 21st July
I actually think this is a much more open handicap than the betting suggests and feel that some of the prices are based purely on reputation of the relevant trainer and jockey bookings. A more competitive race than normal for Cartmel I would say - owing to the described going and the unusual nature of the course I am going with a selection right near the bottom of the weights which finished 2nd in june at newcastle over similar distance. The trainer-Sophie Leech has actually a better record here at Cartmel with Chases however she is having a reasonable season so far from her runners with a good % of places as well. In it's flat career it was running in Class 2 races and seemed to have no problems with a similar surface at newcastle last time. Still quite unexposed really and maybe running off a potentially very lenient mark on softish conditions there may still be some pace left in the tank at the finish on the flat. Selection :Cartmel 5.25 Keenes Day-20/1 PPower bet365 1 point E/W I also think this is an excellent race for some small stakes exotics. I'll be doing a combination fcasts- keenes day/makhzoon/los nadis/shoe gazer and maybe tcsts as well.5.25 Cartmel Totepool Cumbria Crystal Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (2m6f) VICTOR LEUDORUM 4pts @ 7/1 bog (Bet365) Progressive 5yo (the youngest of the group) trained by Charlie Mann who has collected 4 wins in his last 4 races, improving race after race and winning all of them in impressive style. No fear for the distance and goes on any ground, is of course still very lightly raced and absolutely unexposed and his entry handicap mark of 136 doesn't seem a big obstacle if he can keep on progressing even if this is a big field with a few high quality handicappers, with most of the top stables well represented, but he beat already a lot of good horses and was never asked to go close to his limits so he could well prove to be a Grade hurdler this year and in that prospect a win in a big handicap off 136 would seem more than achievable especially with a valuable 7lb claimer in Gavin Sheehan confirmed on board after he rode Victor Leudorum on his last two winning outs. I couldn't totally dismiss any of the other 15 runners but none of them seems to have so much scope for improvement and most of them have important question marks such as the ground, the trip, the track and of course above all the skill and form to beat their current handicap mark in this race. -
7.00 killbeggan Cnoc Seoda small yard's horses running well. finished 4th last time out over slightly further in distance, however the previous run was at Cork which is a flatter track. Cnoc Seoda was held up last time running on strongly at the finish approx 6 lengths behind the eventual winner, showing good speed from the second last. I feel there is more to come and although this is 1F less in distance there are undulations to contend with as well as an uphill finish which hopefully will be in its favour stamina wise. Dangers abound in the Geraghty mount and early tissue favourite Crocus Bay and at larger prices IMperial Shabra and Kilflora but at the current prices I think the 9/1 PPower is the best value especially as an E/W selection. Cnoc Seoda 9/1 1Point E/W
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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th July KIllarney 17.25 Union Dues 10/1 Betfred Not a great deal to recommend on pedigree however the trainer /jockey combination have been in quite blistering form this season with a massive level stake profit and runners from this quarter always need respecting in bumpers. Uniondues 1point E/W
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Re: BBOTD Thursday 19th July Brighton 14.45 stonecrabstomorrow 11/1 various previous course and distance winner and true to say the last two runs have not been too hot to be honest however that is reflected in the price and in a pretty dire low grade fare here with soft underfoot conditions I'm hoping with his normal claimer on board that he gives us a good run for our money at this very unique track. annoyingly only 7 runners. stonecrabstomorrow 11/1 1point E/W
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Re: The Effect of the Draw.... Put into lbs...
No it's not wasting time with effort I always thinks its worth an effort researching things and can often throw up unexpected ideas. One of the things I've been struggling with recently is the more you look into things the more factors you may need to consider but conversely its those maybe small factors that the general 'market consensus' arn't considering that may give you an edge and that can be enough to have long term profits. strangely enough some of my best results recently have been when I've only had a limited amount of time to consider a race-statistics are only part of the answer-it's how you interpret them which is the important point which will always be subjective I guess! IT's a good idea to try to get a favourable early price on Betfair certainly for trading purposes and you could always use the trading profits from that on a daily basis as pure punting money-so a free bet really. That's generally what I've been doing recently with my tennis traiding profits .It's true... The thought just occurred to me that after all the effort, it may not be worth it at all and steer me away from big prices.... If it's soft at Chester and they go hurtling off, the wider drawn horses have more of a chance than on a normal day with a standard pace for example... As you say, punters will be backing stalls 1, 2 & 3 blindly regardless. No shortcuts, but frankly, I will take some if it keeps results positive and doesn't involve me thinking about racing 24/7!! I at least want to cut doen to 12/7!!!!:rollin -
Re: The Effect of the Draw.... Put into lbs... Just a thought-one area I've been looking into recently is reviewing a particular race where there was a result which was statistically against the draw bias-what particular factor enabled it to win from an unfavourable draw, are there common factors which may account for an unlikely win in thses cases? say for example only 10% win from a particular 'unfavourable' stall at a particular track, these may well go off at very large odds especially on the exchanges as your average 'system stat based punter' would be more likely to back individuals in the more favourable stalls - so conversely these may well be underbet and go off at very favourable backing odds.
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Re: The Effect of the Draw.... Put into lbs... very interesting. I had a couple of pints with a chum last night and we spent some time debating how we each compile a 'rating' for horses in a particular race and the 'weighting' we give to particular factors. Needless to say we had quite a difference in opinions, although one area we did have some consensus on was that if we assume that a mature pre-race market on the exchanges was relatively efficient in terms of being the closest (at the top end of the market it must be said) to the correct odds for the individual animal winning ,that as the relative merits or otherwise of the draw are now generally much wider known than previously this factor would generally be taken into account when formulating odds. I'm not saying of course that the draw is not of significance just that that particular factor is more than likely factored into the prices already perhaps.
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Re: Going Descriptions of Late
i think this is definately one of the areas where actually having an opportunity to be at the track could be an advantage however my own view recently has been to radically reduce any wagers certainly in GB as it is such a lottery exactly what ground you are going to get and doing race evaluations which then have to be binned because you realise the going in fact is quite different from the official one, not to mention the non runners completely changing the make up and odds of the race, rendering your opinions worthless strikes me as a very unproductive use of time. nearly all my punting now in the last ten days has been concentrated on tennis to be honest although I have still been reading the RP, etc. It would be interesting to see the bookies results in the last few weeks from horse racing-very healthy profits I would imagine!! Be interested to hear others thoughtsIts a nightmare at the moment yeah. Although not fool proof I find it is best to click into the race through the results header on the post and go into analysis of race times. They give you the going based on what the clock was suggesting rather than the official (fudged for political reasons to get as many horses as possible to turn up) ground given. Still not perfect but slightly better than using the official description IMO -
Re: Speed Figures
thanks-I guess I was interested in the relationship between the different types of courses on the relevance of the TS figure IE a galloping course compared with a tighter track,etcNot really but I only really look at handicaps bar the big meetings. I do discard all ratings on heavy or firm as they arent very reliable and I distrust soft ground form initially unless the form looks solid. -
Re: Speed Figures
HI interesting-have you made any analysis of the type of race and/or surface these figures have been of benefit for?I purely use TS as I dont have the time to go into the depth that some of you guys do. I have to say though they dont seem to work badly and I am as much up this season as I have ever been through using them. I have to say though, I dont use them in isolation. Its important to look at the figure and assess its reliability first and the more form study I do, the better I am getting at analysing the race. Like the above post, I use a spreadsheet but mine is purely to make sure I am not wasting a bet through not checking through my main criteria (trip, ground, class, draw, running style etc). I tended to find I would get excited by a high TS figure and wonder why it was such a big price and rush to get my money on. It would only be after that I would cotton on that the conditions didnt suit anywhere as well as it did when he recorded the TS. -
Re: Goodbye All...also a warning Really sorry to hear that - it takes a lot of guts to admit you have a problem-I know in many areas of life there is a fine dividing line between having a real passion for something and it becoming an obsession and taking over someones life and it takes a lot of discipline to be able to look at yourself in a dispassionate way over what you are doing-and it's not just confined to gambling on the horses. strangely enough I see it in my main 'day job' which is human sports injury rehab-I have seen a lot of long distance runners wreck the rest of their lives over their running obsession. but I completely understand it as with running there is a definite 'brain chemistry' change if you like once you are doing sufficient miles and likewise with punting it's very easy to get sucked into the emotional rollercoaster of it.Mind you I see it more with all the numpties on the virtual roulette machines rather than sports betting in terms of addictive behaviour. Food for thought for all of us. I'm genuinely interested with how other posters view their punting. Although I really like the sport I get little emotional kick from it (which is something I have worked hard not to let develop) because I treat it as much as possible as a business -as I really want to make sure that it doesn't become anemotional obsession-but again not easy to get the balance right. My other main job is as a semi-pro musician and I've lost count of the number of people I've played with that have ended up with either alcoholic and/or drug probs and I've sailed quite close to the wind in the past with being on the lash too much myself-I guess it's always easy to mislead yourself over your own behaviour! Certainly from my point of view if I was losing money every month I wouldn't be doing it-maybe it's because I've been self-employed for a long time now and have always had to keep a close eye on cash flow. I started with quite a small bank and although in the first year there were times when I was tempted to top it up when it was nearly all gone I resisted the temptation and was so glad I did as it made me really analyse what I was doing wrong and why so many of my selections were wrong. Anyway I really hope things go well for you -The first steps are always the hardest and you've bravely taken the first one
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Re: Opinions
I have to say for me the most important factor is the what type of race it is and when in the (racing ) calendar year it is occuring. that will have a big influence on the other factors for consideration in your selection-and will direct you away from races which are not good races to waste time over when considering possible selections. I often feel that the time involved in making an assessment of a selection has to be considered as part of the value of that selection-just how many hours have you had to 'work' to make XYZ profit- I agree with other posters here in that often you can overthink a race which may well have not been a good candidate race anyway for selection as you found it intriguing maybe meanwhile you overlooked a maybe lesser grade race on the card that offered a much greater potential for profit with less analysis.I was thinking about the methods I use for selections, and then started noting them down. Having done that I looked at them and thought I would try and put a weighting against them, showing the importance they have in trying to find a winner. I found i changed the weighting for each value that many times and I eventually ended up arguing with myself, and if I looked again in twenty minutes I would probably change them again! I think in all honesty I do not use them all at the same time, but I seem to use them in groups, usually to back up an opinion I already have. I was hoping for opinions from the many excellent people on here who are far cleverer than me, on what they would consider to be the most important factors. Here is my latest list, but hurry I might change it soon :) Trainer Form 10, Going 10, Is it off 10, Video Form 9, Distance 9, OR 8, Weight 8, Draw 8, Course 7, Results of horses from its last race 7, Collateral Form 7, Jockey 7, Race Class 7, Type of Race 6, Days Since Last Run 6, Recent Form 6, Ratings 6, Time of year for form 5. ( I have changed this twice while I have been typing). -
Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? Just a thought about NR in what were meant to be 8 runner races especially handicaps.there could be a potential for more value in getting a tricast up. I only looked at two races yesterday and with the first at Brighton I felt that the 3 market leaders were wrongly priced. so I did a combination full cover tricast of the remaining 4 runners.-at a small 20p stake. the tricast was £634.75!!-which gave me £126.85 return for my £4.80 total stake-ok a fortunate gamble one might say but in low grade races at a quirky track the upside potential is worth it I think for a small stake as I would guess the odds of it occuring are lower maybe than they should be statistically in this event? Food for thought maybe with low grade races if you feel that the market leaders are maybe wrongly priced
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Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?
that sounds very interesting (the guide I mean)-even though my main focus is on the NH game. I do like the flat though-especially the quirky courses- I'm quite fond of Brighton and Ffos las- no doubt that is a pretty small fan club! and Hexham, Fontwell and Kelso in the NH game.I'm interested in why you don't consider the going much in your analysis. I actually think it's very important although in maybe a more subtle way than at first sight.Strangely enough I love to bet when it's heavy!-then you know what you are dealing with! It's GS soft in places I can't stand-a very unsatisfactory compromise! I've got fond memories of your neck of the woods sunbathing, amazingly, on top of Schiehallion 10 years ago! Must get to see some NH action at Scone one day!I'm in the process of creating a guide to all the UK Flat Courses. It has draw figures for each distance, historical pace bias, course configuration, terrain groupings, and stiffness index. It'll be finished this year - at the moment I just update it when I have a bet at a course. Regarding Going. It doesn't come into my analysis much. A secondary factor at best. Only rule I have with going is 'don't bet when it's heavy'. -
Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?
I guess one advantage of reading those reports though and looking at their selections is that you may well find them good laying material as so many people follow their selections and they are over bet and go off at much shorter prices than should be the case really hence maybe a good value lay. I have been following an approach this year, I hesitate to call it a system, as it is quite flexible in some regards, but it involves laying some particularly well known jocks at some of the smaller tracks and meetings where statistically they have done particularly badly in the past- even at small stakes so far the results have been excellent as they are inevitably over bet by the betting shop 'fodder' and hence very good value lays. anyway to return to the discussion about the going-this is an area fraught with complications if you ask me.as an earlier poster discussed there are obviously conflicting interests at work here-the courses need as many runners to run as possible so sometimes the published going reports are generally on the optimistic side-one that I find particularly irritating is GS soft in places-you can interprete that in numerous ways obviously-which is obviously what the courses want! To me I think the going is a much more complicated matter than it may at first appear and of more significance at certain courses and over certain distances.I myself am wary of just looking at previous results on soft/heavy going as they need to reviewed in the light of what was actually achieved on the race in question-it may well have been an shocking race and f all was beaten really, this also ties in with the 'action' of a horse-just beacuse it may have a high knee action which is generally considered an advantage on softish going it stillneeds to have some ability from a cardio-vascular (fitness)point of view and have shown that in the past with the times achieved-often the value bet in a race on soft going is the best horse in general on terms of previous ability shown (and assuming a good current level of fitness and trainer form etc)-and if the connections still run it I would regard that as a small recomendation in itself. Going back to the description of the going again I think it needs to reviewed as well in the light of the type of course involved and an area I think people may well find fruitful for further evaluation is to consider the natural geology and landscape as well of structure of particular courses, and how a spell of rain will effect the going-it will be quite different for different courses.I don't have a complete 'handle' on this yet but it strikes me as an area for further detailed research due to the unique variables in the natural features of the courses in these islands and may well yield some very useful handicapping figures and maybe some good value bets in the future.No amount of studying would have pointed you in the direction of the Barney Curley/Chris Grant 4 horse gamble 2 years ago , without inside information most of us are fighting a losing battle. The Racing Post supplements published for the Cheltenham Festival and Royal Ascot often gives us losing tips , if the paid proffessionals cannot get it right then our task is even harder. Having re read the one produced for this week if you took their advice you'd would be in the red this week. -
Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? Hi Not posted for a while because of other things in life keeping me really busy A few thoughts from my own 'journey' if you like. You need to decide yourself what your 'punting' will be is it just a bit of a craic? or do you want to make long term hopefully substantial profits from it? If it's the latter then just like Saint wrote earlier you need to put the time in for research. I had a similar experience when I first started just over 2 years ago with numerous winners for the first month or so on the summer jumps cards especially in Ireland. Of course that didn't last and when I look back I realise in some respects how far I have travelled although as always still loads of ways to improve. One of the big problems I feel with the flat is the large amount of meetings-others may disagree but I feel the only way to be succesful in that area is to specialise. There are so many things to take into consideration (even before you look at the prices for a particular race) and as racing in particular is very much a matter of opinions how you assess yourself all the factors leading to a selection. slightly going off at a tangent for a moment I think maybe one of the most important things the punter needs is psychological- I feel you both need to be passionate about the sport (as you will tend then to keep as well imformed as possible because of your interest and the more you know the better in my opinion) but also an ability to be extremely disciplined when it comes to 'investing' your money appropriately in a cold analytical way. Strangely enough some of the best things I have learnt have been negative-IE what not to do. I have found it really instructive spending time in various betting shops quietly observing the methods of various generally unsuccesful punters 95% of whom seem to bet in a completely emotional fashion-rushing around from race to race making selections in 30 seconds for the next one. dogs in between and the machines etc. Fine if it's their means of entertainment it's their choice but it
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Re: BH's Summer Jollies Actually regarding S2 it would be interesting to see if there was a drift before the off on the losers and also if they were placed as well as a lay in the place market may be good to reduce the liabilities. a lot of good ideas for futrther research from this. many thanks
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Re: new system handicaps class 3 and below using RP post data ability column
correction S2 will be 0.5 points E/W not 1 point E/W for stat purposes I will have an S4 as well which will be a retrospective review for a 20/80 system to Betfair SP which will be 0.2 points win betfair SP and 0.8 points place Betfair SPstarting with Three 100 point banks today 1 point stake each selection the three banks will be S1- 1 point stake to BOG prices straight win S2- 1 point E/W to BOG selections S3- 1 point stake to betfair place only-this will retrospective to betfair place sp Selections today Only 2 so far Beverley 9.05 destiny of a diva 11/1 red inca 9/1 william hills -
Re: new system handicaps class 3 and below using RP post data ability column starting with Three 100 point banks today 1 point stake each selection the three banks will be S1- 1 point stake to BOG prices straight win S2- 1 point E/W to BOG selections S3- 1 point stake to betfair place only-this will retrospective to betfair place sp Selections today Only 2 so far Beverley 9.05 destiny of a diva 11/1 red inca 9/1 william hills
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Re: BH's Summer Jollies
LIke you I'm much more a fan of the NH game especially in Ireland, however have to say I'm rather surprised about the excellent results of S1 especially considering the variable weather we have had with the start of the flat. Two things occur to me looking at the figures-may well be worthwhile looking at what were the types of races in S1 and conversely S2 as well as S2 may well be the basis of a laying system. Wouls also be interesting looking at S2 with regard to why it was a favourite? IE popular jockey/trainer combo. Great stuff anyway and although it's only a month a much greater S/R than I would have expected for S1 :clap:clap:clapI see another 2yo odds on shot was beaten today! Anyway Shoegazer gets us past the magic number! See what the total is at the end of the month, might take the £100 starting bank out? As S2 looks like a cooked goose i will start S3 at the beginning of June and see how that goes.
Thanks for the support chaps:ok -
This is looking for a selction where there are just one or two animals clear by one tick in the ability column of the post data reference grid in the racing post .Minimum odds for selection 4.00 If there are two animals then if odds allow both will be backed. No other data will be used for this system. I will not differentiate at present between Flat or NH. Results will be noted to SP
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Re: I found this, care to elaborate?
Can't say I agree with it in the slightest-In fact it's normally the reverse for me. In amateur /apprentice/conditional only races the most experienced Jockey often makes a much bigger difference especially in the longer distances over jumps and careful study in this area often throws up winners at very nice odds.Again Hunter chases can be very lucrative betting mediums often with massive wide margin winners at much bigger prices than should really be the case. I also personally love some of the large fields over the hurdles in Ireland-again often very nice prices. I guess one of the great thing about some of those events is that if you study some of them closely and keep up to date on small stables in form/sire stats/conditional jockey form,track stats etc some very nice prices often pop up which are rarely tipped up in the media. Conversely I rarely bet on the well known big races,I'm happy just to watch-I think it's very difficult to get a good value price and although other people would prob disagree I've never been keen on having money tied up doing nothing on an ante poste bet for 2-3 months.So I was looking at various types of bet and came across this in a seperate section: _________________________________ Races to Avoid [TABLE=class: contentpaneopen] [TR] [TD] Horse Racing - Horse Racing General [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] When arriving at my selections, races I consider best avoided include the following:- Over 14 runners
- Amateurs only races
- Hunter Chases
- Apprentice only races
- Conditional Jockeys only races
- Ladies only races
- Any 14 runner or less race where a proportion of runners are unexposed
_________________________________ Could anyone elaborate to the problems above, I really dont understand why they are problem races and Im still very new to myself betting, thank you
saturdays bbotd
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: saturdays bbotd
Great stuff. I dutched it and the japanese horse and dunaden and backed it in the place market as well:clap:clap:clap yet again another very curious ride from O'Brien!!!