harrisman
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Posts posted by harrisman
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3rd race Clairefontaine today notable that Amy Murphy has a runner.
She has great stats at the track
- azzybear, Bedlam and black rabbit
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It's absolutely worth looking for the extra places in big field handicaps.Ive got a couple of files tucked away which annoyingly cant locate basically showing once you are over 12 runners , 16 runners etc with extra places then the ew value is big in your favour.Get 3 placed and maybe one winner in a treble the odds lucky 15 at odds even as low as 4/1 and you will get a reasonable return.
On a similar subject re places I like the extra places for less odds you can do at Hills on the SSBT's. Interestingly if you back early in the day for example in a 6 runner race if it goes down to 5 runners by off time you are still paid for 3rd place if you backed it ew at the earlier times. Not sure if this is the same as online as Hills
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Woeful effort from both sadly. Neither seemed to enjoy Auteuil - A not an uncommon experience at that pretty unique track even on the hurdles.
Very interesting that Emmet Mullins sends a horse for his hurdling debut to Auteuil today in a 88k Listed hurdle the first on the card.
3rd Fav at the moment. Has performed well on the flat on this going,Although at the prices the Gwen Richards/Nicolle runner appeals more with its track hurdling experience. TWIST OF ART 6/1 ew taken.
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Very interesting that Emmet Mullins sends a horse for his hurdling debut to Auteuil today in a 88k Listed hurdle the first on the card.
3rd Fav at the moment. Has performed well on the flat on this going,Although at the prices the Gwen Richards/Nicolle runner appeals more with its track hurdling experience. TWIST OF ART 6/1 ew taken.
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10.50 Fontainebleau
2m6f chase xcountry.
all the money is for the Lagenste Macaire runner, however the combination of different track and crucially trip, up 2f from its 2 previous XCountry events in Pau leads me to take both Cooper Des Ongrais and Extreme (Felix de Giles ridden always a benefit in these events) as possible punts against it.maybe a small reverse Fcast as well.
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Pau 11.50
An interesting XCountry of nearly 3m. The going is described as soft now, rather than the heavy described as yesterday.I wonder if that may be the reason for Feeling Fast now being equal favourite with Dunguin having shortened into 5/2
However there are still doubts about getting home for all the runners going up in trip except. 5/2 ew
Dunguin
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Some interesting racing at Pau today with a nice competitive XCountry event.
In the opener at 10.50 all the money is for the Reveley horse.Possibly the most likely winner however much too short for me in a reasonably competitive chase.At the prices the trainer's(in cracking form) other runner -Seigneur Des As appeals more .11/1 ew
1.07. Guerre Des Gaules ew 12/1. ground should be ideal and expecting a big run with the excellent Nathalie Desoutter on top and claims 4.
2.17. Chez Pedro. (In the Papot silks, only runner on card) -unseated early in a similar race a couple of weeks ago however this time has the master Felix de Giles on board and must be in with a good chance at the finish 4/1 ew
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Deauville 16.52
King Archiep
Interesting that the excellent German trainer Grewe brings this one runner to Deauville for a 2yo maiden with Bachelot on top.
5/1ew taken.
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Deauville. 14.15
An interesting AW 6 1/2 F sprint with an unbalanced look to the market in my eyes.Most of the money seems to be going purely on jockey bookings with Barzalona and Bachelot head to head taking a massive chunk.
Consequently I'll be taking Tibasti at 7/1. (with a useful claimer weight reduction) who on OR is well clear of the field and the improving Datthirey at 9/1 split stakes.
May consider an exotic near the off as welldepending on the prices
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And typically Felix wins the closing big field handicap .!!
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34 minutes ago, calva decoy said:
I looked at that one as has had some good form in Grade 1's at Cheltenham & Naas but with Sophie Leach having moved some of her yard to just outside of Chantilly as well as her UK base in Gloucestershire she's not done that well in France though saying that her other runner Adayil came 2nd in the race at 6/1 .
Paolo looked good on the 11.50 claiming race .
Felix will be annoyed he wasn't on the other although made amends with a cracking ride in the following race!!
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Some nice rides for Felix de Giles today at Cagnes.
12.25 partic interesting riding for Sophie Leech on Cracking Smart14/1 ew taken.
Very reasonable back form on heavy.
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PAU. 13.15
Lucky Let Love. 6/1 e/w. Cracking XCountry chase with Reveley mount best value on current prices
Only just touched off in the Listed XCountry at this track in Feb by the current Fav, and over a slightly shorter distance this time conditions and trip seem ideal. Dunquin would-be an interesting ew alternative if it drifts out to 14/1 and above.
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Nice ride from Barzalona to land the early 8/1 on IRISH POINT in the NHFlat race last week.
Last meeting of year today at Auteuil. Very tricky looking card on Heavy going with little leaping out at the few early prices about -however will give a chance to the Louisa Carberry trained.
SURDOUE DE BALLON. 6/1 e/w dropped in grade and trip into the opening claimer. Seems to have been a tricky horse to place with only 1 win on Heavy going 2 years ago, although a reasonable place rate esp on going described. The most recent spin in the Listed XCountry course at Compeigne would have been excellent preparation for this event over the tricky Auteuil obstacles.
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Saint Cloud 12.15
An interesting National Hunt flat race over 1m4f on heavy going .
No prices at the moment however the one I'm most interested in is the Soumillon mount ILE O VENT. Anything over 6/1 will be acceptable. Likewise IRISH POINT the mount of Barcelona would be my second choice with similar odds wanted.
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Never travelling that well sadly and rider did well to get third although out of the each way places.
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Not had chance to post for ages owing to other business being very busy thankfully, however have a slight respite at the moment so keen to pop the occasional selection up.
Today's card at Compeigne is full of interest although not nec from a punting perspective.
11.50. FRET D'ESTRUVAL. 6/1 e/w
A competitive looking chase on heavy going with cases to be made for all six runners however I feel the selection ridden by the excellent Nathalie Desouttier claiming 4 ,in the distinctive Munir/Souede colours , is the overpriced one partic as it has been largely campaigned at the top graded tracks of Auteuil and Pau.
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4 hours ago, harrisman said:
Clairefontaine 11.15
Alce seems to me to represent good value, against the two Macaire runners heading the market.I don't think Alce is fully exposed yet and if the excellent Nathalie Desoutter claiming 4, can ride it a bit closer to the pace than on its debut where it seemed to take time to settle, I'm hopeful it will be still in contention at the last.
ALCE-
8/1ew
Very dissapointing. Seemed pretty unable to keep up with the race pace and although switched to the outside to have a clearer view of the hurdles it appeared to have little benefit. However I will keep on eye on it if it appears for an entry on a firmer surface.
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Clairefontaine 11.15
Alce seems to me to represent good value, against the two Macaire runners heading the market.I don't think Alce is fully exposed yet and if the excellent Nathalie Desoutter claiming 4, can ride it a bit closer to the pace than on its debut where it seemed to take time to settle, I'm hopeful it will be still in contention at the last.
ALCE-
8/1ew
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3 hours ago, harrisman said:
Ayr 14.10
In an open looking 7f on good to firm I fancy the maiden Klopp of the Kop to be in contention. Both of its best RPR's have been recorded on good going and dropped into a lower grade must have a chance against similarly modest individuals. 11/2ew
Nice work Danny Tudhope indeed. Drifted out as well to 13/2!
- LEE-GRAYS, yossa6133 and The Equaliser
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Ayr 14.10
In an open looking 7f on good to firm I fancy the maiden Klopp of the Kop to be in contention. Both of its best RPR's have been recorded on good going and dropped into a lower grade must have a chance against similarly modest individuals. 11/2ew
- waggy and The Equaliser
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On 7/17/2021 at 7:46 AM, harrisman said:
A win and a place yesterday in France, hoping for more of the same in two hurdles at Nancy, both with British interest.
11.50 Peregrina 10/3ew. Reveley booked, backed down already from forecast price.
10.50 Walkin out. Felix De Giles booked for the ride for the noted Cottin yard. Interesting that it is owned by Robert Waley Cohen. Could well be worth following in that regard to see where it goes next. 8/1ew
Walkin out came second. Only noticed checking the results and watching the replay that there was a JC so no FeluxDG aboard. Wasn't convinced the right tactics were applied on the heavy ground. Will follow this horse though as until the last was jumping with fluency.
Time to give up after almost 20 years of gambling?
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Thoughts about betting/trading.
Interesting discussion.I wonder how many people know a pro punter personally.I know 3 and they are probably the exact opposite of what the general public would regard as a full time gambler. Although very different in many ways the 2 main things they have in common is - firstly a very strict focused specialist area and secondly a very unemotional approach to things. Of course without saying they are very disciplined in attitude and have a serious work ethic and very realistic about annual profits. All are quite happy with 10%ROI.
One of them also trades a lot and the best advice he gave me was ignorant newbies get eaten alive by the sharks on the exchanges and until you learn to read the markets increasing the stake just increases your losses. Another great piece of advice , much harder of course in practice, is when punting how important it is to get rid of losing bets- always go for the price you want which must be heavily weighted in your favour with regard to your own interpretation of what the market should be.If in doubt dont wager and wait for another opportunity- research is never wasted and if anyone finds that too much hard work then expecting to make a profit long term is delusional.
The other thing they all have in common is detailed 6 monthly reviews of results negative and positive and if there are any conclusions which can be drawn from these. They all pay attention in particular to the losing bets.
Horse racing in particular is a fascinating sport betting wise in that you can get winners at prices occassionally which are very very rare prices in other sports which leads a lot of novice punters into unrealistic expectations of profits made easily.And it's also the greatest sport for attracting longterm mug punters who are emotionally attached to trainers/jockeys etc who will make the market.
Concentrating is the name of the game.
Of course if you want to punt for fun that's fine, have a separate small pot completely away from your other finances and consider it money lost.
I have a mate who always has a punt, roughly the cost of a pint when he watches a soccer or rugby game in the pub.Usually against his own team then if his team lose his winnings pay for the snifters!