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Darran

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  1. Like
    Darran got a reaction from yossa6133 in Non-league predictions - 28th October   
    Oldham v Altrincham I wrote in the preview for Tuesday's games that I thought we might have got away with one with Oldham beating Rochdale on Saturday based on the stats. That as well as the price drop meant I left them alone against Fylde and it was certainly the right decision as they were awful. They barely created a chance and in the end Fylde ran out very easy 3-0 winners. I was clearly surprised that they were so bad, but it does suggest that Mellon might have his work cut out. First home game in charge might well see some improvement, but we know how good Altrincham are and for me they have to be backed.   Woking v Bromley A goal on the counter attack meant Woking beat Eastleigh on Tuesday night which was a much needed win for them. Bromley meanwhile needed a wonder goal in injury time to beat Dorking, but that continued their superb run of form which is only ruined by a poor performance at Chesterfield. They are the likely title winners though so nothing that wrong with that and I just can't have them at such a big price to win this.   Curzon Ashton v Chester After a slow start to the season Chester have found their form of late and have won their last 3 games 2-0 which includes a win over Hartlepool in the FA Cup. I would make them favourites to win this as I think we will see Curzon struggle a bit after losing their manager to Kings Lynn and they have lost their last 2 league games.   Eastbourne v Slough I thought when Slough came back from 2 down to level it at 2-2 on Tuesday night against St Albans that we were in with a chance, but then Slough conceded a 3rd. That was their 1st defeat though in 6 games whilst Eastbourne have only won once in their last 6, ironically enough that was a 3-2 win against St Albans. Slough have drifted out and look a big price because I don't think there is a great deal between these two sides.   Royston v Needham Market (Southern Premier Central) The away side have only lost once in the league all season and they pushed York so close in the FA Cup the previous round so they are looking very strong this season. Royston have only lost once at home, but they have only won once in their last 6 games and Needham look a decent bet to pick up another 3 points.   Didcot v Sholing (Southern Premier South) Sholing now have former Sutton and Havant boss Paul Doswell in charge and after a poor run of form they are doing much better and are now unbeaten in 5. They look much stronger than a Didcot side who got thumped 7-1 by Totton on Wednesday night. They have won just once this season and have key players missing through injury and suspension on Saturday. I think they look the best bet of the weekend.   Prices from Thursday afternoon    Altrincham 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365  (11/5with Paddy Power and Betfair and take up to 13/8) Bromley 1pt @ 11/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 2/1) Chester 1pt @ 29/20 with Paddy Power and Betfair (Skybet are 13/8 take up to 5/4) Slough 1pt @ 23/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 15/8) Needham Market 1pt @ 5/4 with Betfred (Skybet are 13/10 and take up to 11/10) Sholing 2pts @ 11/8 with Skybet, William Hill and Bet365 (Betfred are 6/4 and take up to Evs)
  2. Like
    Darran got a reaction from freddie01 in Non-league predictions - 28th October   
    Oldham v Altrincham I wrote in the preview for Tuesday's games that I thought we might have got away with one with Oldham beating Rochdale on Saturday based on the stats. That as well as the price drop meant I left them alone against Fylde and it was certainly the right decision as they were awful. They barely created a chance and in the end Fylde ran out very easy 3-0 winners. I was clearly surprised that they were so bad, but it does suggest that Mellon might have his work cut out. First home game in charge might well see some improvement, but we know how good Altrincham are and for me they have to be backed.   Woking v Bromley A goal on the counter attack meant Woking beat Eastleigh on Tuesday night which was a much needed win for them. Bromley meanwhile needed a wonder goal in injury time to beat Dorking, but that continued their superb run of form which is only ruined by a poor performance at Chesterfield. They are the likely title winners though so nothing that wrong with that and I just can't have them at such a big price to win this.   Curzon Ashton v Chester After a slow start to the season Chester have found their form of late and have won their last 3 games 2-0 which includes a win over Hartlepool in the FA Cup. I would make them favourites to win this as I think we will see Curzon struggle a bit after losing their manager to Kings Lynn and they have lost their last 2 league games.   Eastbourne v Slough I thought when Slough came back from 2 down to level it at 2-2 on Tuesday night against St Albans that we were in with a chance, but then Slough conceded a 3rd. That was their 1st defeat though in 6 games whilst Eastbourne have only won once in their last 6, ironically enough that was a 3-2 win against St Albans. Slough have drifted out and look a big price because I don't think there is a great deal between these two sides.   Royston v Needham Market (Southern Premier Central) The away side have only lost once in the league all season and they pushed York so close in the FA Cup the previous round so they are looking very strong this season. Royston have only lost once at home, but they have only won once in their last 6 games and Needham look a decent bet to pick up another 3 points.   Didcot v Sholing (Southern Premier South) Sholing now have former Sutton and Havant boss Paul Doswell in charge and after a poor run of form they are doing much better and are now unbeaten in 5. They look much stronger than a Didcot side who got thumped 7-1 by Totton on Wednesday night. They have won just once this season and have key players missing through injury and suspension on Saturday. I think they look the best bet of the weekend.   Prices from Thursday afternoon    Altrincham 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365  (11/5with Paddy Power and Betfair and take up to 13/8) Bromley 1pt @ 11/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 2/1) Chester 1pt @ 29/20 with Paddy Power and Betfair (Skybet are 13/8 take up to 5/4) Slough 1pt @ 23/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 15/8) Needham Market 1pt @ 5/4 with Betfred (Skybet are 13/10 and take up to 11/10) Sholing 2pts @ 11/8 with Skybet, William Hill and Bet365 (Betfred are 6/4 and take up to Evs)
  3. Like
    Darran got a reaction from andypandy23 in Non-league predictions - 28th October   
    Oldham v Altrincham I wrote in the preview for Tuesday's games that I thought we might have got away with one with Oldham beating Rochdale on Saturday based on the stats. That as well as the price drop meant I left them alone against Fylde and it was certainly the right decision as they were awful. They barely created a chance and in the end Fylde ran out very easy 3-0 winners. I was clearly surprised that they were so bad, but it does suggest that Mellon might have his work cut out. First home game in charge might well see some improvement, but we know how good Altrincham are and for me they have to be backed.   Woking v Bromley A goal on the counter attack meant Woking beat Eastleigh on Tuesday night which was a much needed win for them. Bromley meanwhile needed a wonder goal in injury time to beat Dorking, but that continued their superb run of form which is only ruined by a poor performance at Chesterfield. They are the likely title winners though so nothing that wrong with that and I just can't have them at such a big price to win this.   Curzon Ashton v Chester After a slow start to the season Chester have found their form of late and have won their last 3 games 2-0 which includes a win over Hartlepool in the FA Cup. I would make them favourites to win this as I think we will see Curzon struggle a bit after losing their manager to Kings Lynn and they have lost their last 2 league games.   Eastbourne v Slough I thought when Slough came back from 2 down to level it at 2-2 on Tuesday night against St Albans that we were in with a chance, but then Slough conceded a 3rd. That was their 1st defeat though in 6 games whilst Eastbourne have only won once in their last 6, ironically enough that was a 3-2 win against St Albans. Slough have drifted out and look a big price because I don't think there is a great deal between these two sides.   Royston v Needham Market (Southern Premier Central) The away side have only lost once in the league all season and they pushed York so close in the FA Cup the previous round so they are looking very strong this season. Royston have only lost once at home, but they have only won once in their last 6 games and Needham look a decent bet to pick up another 3 points.   Didcot v Sholing (Southern Premier South) Sholing now have former Sutton and Havant boss Paul Doswell in charge and after a poor run of form they are doing much better and are now unbeaten in 5. They look much stronger than a Didcot side who got thumped 7-1 by Totton on Wednesday night. They have won just once this season and have key players missing through injury and suspension on Saturday. I think they look the best bet of the weekend.   Prices from Thursday afternoon    Altrincham 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365  (11/5with Paddy Power and Betfair and take up to 13/8) Bromley 1pt @ 11/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 2/1) Chester 1pt @ 29/20 with Paddy Power and Betfair (Skybet are 13/8 take up to 5/4) Slough 1pt @ 23/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 15/8) Needham Market 1pt @ 5/4 with Betfred (Skybet are 13/10 and take up to 11/10) Sholing 2pts @ 11/8 with Skybet, William Hill and Bet365 (Betfred are 6/4 and take up to Evs)
  4. Like
    Darran reacted to Brahmin in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    😘 Thank you @Darran .........for a nice surprise this morning of a 50pt profit for a 40pt outlay.
  5. Like
    Darran got a reaction from yossa6133 in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    Won’t see a better race all day than the Cox Plate and I’m still not sure how Romantic Warrior managed to get his head in front on the line. Now 3/3 in the big spring Aussie races. Will attempt to make it 4/4 in the Melbourne Cup a week on Tuesday 
  6. Like
    Darran got a reaction from azzybear in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    The Cox Plate is the biggest WFA race in Australia and it looks set to be a cracking race and with it being 7/2 the field it is a competitive one as well. Here is my spin through the runners.   Romantic Warrior - Superb form over in Hong Kong and was a warm order for the Turnbull on his first start in Australia, but my initial thinking was that he was a little disappointing in being beaten around 4L by Gold Trip into 4th place. It has to be said though that the form worked out well in the Caulfield Cup last week so given it was his first run since May perhaps it wasn't quite as bad as I initially thought. I think the natural reaction when a short price fav is out of the frame that it wasn't a great run, but it is clearly important to put the run into context. James McDonald is confident that the horse has come on a lot since the Flemington run and if he has then he could easily turn the form around with Gold Trip and go very close to winning.   Zakki - Ex Sir Micheal Stoute horse who has done very well for his new connections in Australia. He's 9 now, but he's run two very good races over 1400m and 1600m this prep at Randwick and the first of them he was just beaten by Fangirl. I'd be surprised if he was good enough especially as he's drawn in 12, but he can run another solid race.   Mr Brightside - Has already bagged a couple of G1's this prep winning the Memsie over 1400m at Caulfield and then the Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m beating Alligator Blood. He was odds on to win the King Charles III at Randwick a couple of weeks ago, but was more than put in his place by Fangirl. It's been suggested the ground was too firm for him that day, but it was a Good 3 when he won the time before. The problem for me though is the trip as he was only 7th in this last year and I think he needs 1600m to be at his best.   Alligator Blood - Looked a non-stayer in this last year when only 5th, but that did come on softer ground and he certainly stayed 2000m well when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of winning the G1 Underwood the start before. As impressive as he was though at Caulfield I'm not sure it was that strong a race as the favourite was a huge disappointment and he ended up only beating former Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare who is clearly better over further. I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but this will be a tougher test over the trip than his win last time.   Gold Trip - What a year he has had. He ran in the Caulfield Cup last year finishing 2nd, he was then 9th in this before winning the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn prep wasn't great, but he is back in great form this prep having won the Turnbull in fantastic fashion and then a really good 3rd last week in the Caulfield Cup given he didn't get a lot of luck in running at all. Clearly he is flying and he didn't get much luck in running in this last year either so the fact he was only 9th can be overlooked a bit. He showed last year that he keeps his form and if he gets better luck in running then he is more than capable of winning this.   My Oberon - 3rd in the King Charles III last time which was a solid run, but suggests he shouldn't be good enough.   Pinstriped - Won a G2 here over a mile last month and ran OK a couple of weeks ago in the Toorak which is a G1 handicap over a mile. I'd be surprised if he was good enough.   Fangirl - Trainer clearly knows how to win this race with a mare and she has been in flying form this prep winning the G1 Winx Stakes and the King Charles III last time out. I was really impressed last time and whilst she is untested over this far, she wasn't stopping last time and she has a potent turn of foot. If she stays I think she will go close.   Duais - 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Caulfield Stakes and the Underwood and she was 7th behind Fangirl in the Winx Stakes which all suggests to me she wont be winning this.   Victoria Road - The one European runner in the race and will be leaving Aiden O'Brien and staying in Australia. He took 5 runs to win finally landing a Gowran Park maiden last August. He then followed that up with 3 more wins which included a Listed Race and a G3 both in France, before landing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by a nose. The 2nd was Silver Knott who has done little for the form this season, but then again Charlie Appleby's horses haven't always been in great form. He missed his intended seasonal return at Longchamp after getting injured and wasn't seen again until August when he was 7th behind Ace Impact at Deauville. He was then 2nd in the Park Stakes at Leopardstown last month. It was a much better run and you would imagine Aiden has been aiming him at this, but Buckaroo was 2nd in that race and he was a never involved 7th behind Fangirl in the King Charles III Stakes. Clearly anything the yard sends to Australia has to be respected and if he wins then so be it, but I am just not sure he is good enough on bare form.    Militarize - Won the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill last month and then didn't get a race run to suit when favourite in the Caulfield Guineas a couple of weeks ago finishing 5th. Landed a couple of G1's last prep so clearly a top class horse, but he's never run over this trip. Does get plenty of weight as a 3yo though.   King Colorado - Won a G1 in Queensland in June on his 3rd start, but was only 9th in the Winx Stakes and 7th in the Golden Rose. Was 4th in the Caulfield Guineas last time so did reverse form with Militarize, but I'd be a little surprised if he did finish in front of that one again here.   Verdict - A fascinating renewal of the Cox Plate. I must admit my initial thinking was to take on Romantic Warrior, but on looking back at the Turnbull run and the fact the race looks red hot form wise I think he is the most likely winner. He will surely come on plenty for his first run since May and his Hong Kong form does look the best in the race. I will also be having a couple of small savours in the race. Gold Trip has to be one of them given he won the Turnbull and was huge off top weight in the Caulfield Cup last week. We know he can handle the quick back up and granted luck in running he will surely improve massively on his 9th in this last year. I was also hugely impressed by Fangirl at Randwick and if she stays I think she goes close as she looks in career best form.   Romantic Warrior @ 7/2 with William Hill Gold Trip @ 7/1 with William Hill and Bet365 Fangirl @ 6/1 with William Hill and Bet365   NB if having an e/w bet William Hill are going 4 places
  7. Like
    Darran got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    The Cox Plate is the biggest WFA race in Australia and it looks set to be a cracking race and with it being 7/2 the field it is a competitive one as well. Here is my spin through the runners.   Romantic Warrior - Superb form over in Hong Kong and was a warm order for the Turnbull on his first start in Australia, but my initial thinking was that he was a little disappointing in being beaten around 4L by Gold Trip into 4th place. It has to be said though that the form worked out well in the Caulfield Cup last week so given it was his first run since May perhaps it wasn't quite as bad as I initially thought. I think the natural reaction when a short price fav is out of the frame that it wasn't a great run, but it is clearly important to put the run into context. James McDonald is confident that the horse has come on a lot since the Flemington run and if he has then he could easily turn the form around with Gold Trip and go very close to winning.   Zakki - Ex Sir Micheal Stoute horse who has done very well for his new connections in Australia. He's 9 now, but he's run two very good races over 1400m and 1600m this prep at Randwick and the first of them he was just beaten by Fangirl. I'd be surprised if he was good enough especially as he's drawn in 12, but he can run another solid race.   Mr Brightside - Has already bagged a couple of G1's this prep winning the Memsie over 1400m at Caulfield and then the Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m beating Alligator Blood. He was odds on to win the King Charles III at Randwick a couple of weeks ago, but was more than put in his place by Fangirl. It's been suggested the ground was too firm for him that day, but it was a Good 3 when he won the time before. The problem for me though is the trip as he was only 7th in this last year and I think he needs 1600m to be at his best.   Alligator Blood - Looked a non-stayer in this last year when only 5th, but that did come on softer ground and he certainly stayed 2000m well when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of winning the G1 Underwood the start before. As impressive as he was though at Caulfield I'm not sure it was that strong a race as the favourite was a huge disappointment and he ended up only beating former Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare who is clearly better over further. I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but this will be a tougher test over the trip than his win last time.   Gold Trip - What a year he has had. He ran in the Caulfield Cup last year finishing 2nd, he was then 9th in this before winning the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn prep wasn't great, but he is back in great form this prep having won the Turnbull in fantastic fashion and then a really good 3rd last week in the Caulfield Cup given he didn't get a lot of luck in running at all. Clearly he is flying and he didn't get much luck in running in this last year either so the fact he was only 9th can be overlooked a bit. He showed last year that he keeps his form and if he gets better luck in running then he is more than capable of winning this.   My Oberon - 3rd in the King Charles III last time which was a solid run, but suggests he shouldn't be good enough.   Pinstriped - Won a G2 here over a mile last month and ran OK a couple of weeks ago in the Toorak which is a G1 handicap over a mile. I'd be surprised if he was good enough.   Fangirl - Trainer clearly knows how to win this race with a mare and she has been in flying form this prep winning the G1 Winx Stakes and the King Charles III last time out. I was really impressed last time and whilst she is untested over this far, she wasn't stopping last time and she has a potent turn of foot. If she stays I think she will go close.   Duais - 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Caulfield Stakes and the Underwood and she was 7th behind Fangirl in the Winx Stakes which all suggests to me she wont be winning this.   Victoria Road - The one European runner in the race and will be leaving Aiden O'Brien and staying in Australia. He took 5 runs to win finally landing a Gowran Park maiden last August. He then followed that up with 3 more wins which included a Listed Race and a G3 both in France, before landing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by a nose. The 2nd was Silver Knott who has done little for the form this season, but then again Charlie Appleby's horses haven't always been in great form. He missed his intended seasonal return at Longchamp after getting injured and wasn't seen again until August when he was 7th behind Ace Impact at Deauville. He was then 2nd in the Park Stakes at Leopardstown last month. It was a much better run and you would imagine Aiden has been aiming him at this, but Buckaroo was 2nd in that race and he was a never involved 7th behind Fangirl in the King Charles III Stakes. Clearly anything the yard sends to Australia has to be respected and if he wins then so be it, but I am just not sure he is good enough on bare form.    Militarize - Won the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill last month and then didn't get a race run to suit when favourite in the Caulfield Guineas a couple of weeks ago finishing 5th. Landed a couple of G1's last prep so clearly a top class horse, but he's never run over this trip. Does get plenty of weight as a 3yo though.   King Colorado - Won a G1 in Queensland in June on his 3rd start, but was only 9th in the Winx Stakes and 7th in the Golden Rose. Was 4th in the Caulfield Guineas last time so did reverse form with Militarize, but I'd be a little surprised if he did finish in front of that one again here.   Verdict - A fascinating renewal of the Cox Plate. I must admit my initial thinking was to take on Romantic Warrior, but on looking back at the Turnbull run and the fact the race looks red hot form wise I think he is the most likely winner. He will surely come on plenty for his first run since May and his Hong Kong form does look the best in the race. I will also be having a couple of small savours in the race. Gold Trip has to be one of them given he won the Turnbull and was huge off top weight in the Caulfield Cup last week. We know he can handle the quick back up and granted luck in running he will surely improve massively on his 9th in this last year. I was also hugely impressed by Fangirl at Randwick and if she stays I think she goes close as she looks in career best form.   Romantic Warrior @ 7/2 with William Hill Gold Trip @ 7/1 with William Hill and Bet365 Fangirl @ 6/1 with William Hill and Bet365   NB if having an e/w bet William Hill are going 4 places
  8. Like
    Darran got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    The Cox Plate is the biggest WFA race in Australia and it looks set to be a cracking race and with it being 7/2 the field it is a competitive one as well. Here is my spin through the runners.   Romantic Warrior - Superb form over in Hong Kong and was a warm order for the Turnbull on his first start in Australia, but my initial thinking was that he was a little disappointing in being beaten around 4L by Gold Trip into 4th place. It has to be said though that the form worked out well in the Caulfield Cup last week so given it was his first run since May perhaps it wasn't quite as bad as I initially thought. I think the natural reaction when a short price fav is out of the frame that it wasn't a great run, but it is clearly important to put the run into context. James McDonald is confident that the horse has come on a lot since the Flemington run and if he has then he could easily turn the form around with Gold Trip and go very close to winning.   Zakki - Ex Sir Micheal Stoute horse who has done very well for his new connections in Australia. He's 9 now, but he's run two very good races over 1400m and 1600m this prep at Randwick and the first of them he was just beaten by Fangirl. I'd be surprised if he was good enough especially as he's drawn in 12, but he can run another solid race.   Mr Brightside - Has already bagged a couple of G1's this prep winning the Memsie over 1400m at Caulfield and then the Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m beating Alligator Blood. He was odds on to win the King Charles III at Randwick a couple of weeks ago, but was more than put in his place by Fangirl. It's been suggested the ground was too firm for him that day, but it was a Good 3 when he won the time before. The problem for me though is the trip as he was only 7th in this last year and I think he needs 1600m to be at his best.   Alligator Blood - Looked a non-stayer in this last year when only 5th, but that did come on softer ground and he certainly stayed 2000m well when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of winning the G1 Underwood the start before. As impressive as he was though at Caulfield I'm not sure it was that strong a race as the favourite was a huge disappointment and he ended up only beating former Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare who is clearly better over further. I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but this will be a tougher test over the trip than his win last time.   Gold Trip - What a year he has had. He ran in the Caulfield Cup last year finishing 2nd, he was then 9th in this before winning the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn prep wasn't great, but he is back in great form this prep having won the Turnbull in fantastic fashion and then a really good 3rd last week in the Caulfield Cup given he didn't get a lot of luck in running at all. Clearly he is flying and he didn't get much luck in running in this last year either so the fact he was only 9th can be overlooked a bit. He showed last year that he keeps his form and if he gets better luck in running then he is more than capable of winning this.   My Oberon - 3rd in the King Charles III last time which was a solid run, but suggests he shouldn't be good enough.   Pinstriped - Won a G2 here over a mile last month and ran OK a couple of weeks ago in the Toorak which is a G1 handicap over a mile. I'd be surprised if he was good enough.   Fangirl - Trainer clearly knows how to win this race with a mare and she has been in flying form this prep winning the G1 Winx Stakes and the King Charles III last time out. I was really impressed last time and whilst she is untested over this far, she wasn't stopping last time and she has a potent turn of foot. If she stays I think she will go close.   Duais - 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Caulfield Stakes and the Underwood and she was 7th behind Fangirl in the Winx Stakes which all suggests to me she wont be winning this.   Victoria Road - The one European runner in the race and will be leaving Aiden O'Brien and staying in Australia. He took 5 runs to win finally landing a Gowran Park maiden last August. He then followed that up with 3 more wins which included a Listed Race and a G3 both in France, before landing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by a nose. The 2nd was Silver Knott who has done little for the form this season, but then again Charlie Appleby's horses haven't always been in great form. He missed his intended seasonal return at Longchamp after getting injured and wasn't seen again until August when he was 7th behind Ace Impact at Deauville. He was then 2nd in the Park Stakes at Leopardstown last month. It was a much better run and you would imagine Aiden has been aiming him at this, but Buckaroo was 2nd in that race and he was a never involved 7th behind Fangirl in the King Charles III Stakes. Clearly anything the yard sends to Australia has to be respected and if he wins then so be it, but I am just not sure he is good enough on bare form.    Militarize - Won the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill last month and then didn't get a race run to suit when favourite in the Caulfield Guineas a couple of weeks ago finishing 5th. Landed a couple of G1's last prep so clearly a top class horse, but he's never run over this trip. Does get plenty of weight as a 3yo though.   King Colorado - Won a G1 in Queensland in June on his 3rd start, but was only 9th in the Winx Stakes and 7th in the Golden Rose. Was 4th in the Caulfield Guineas last time so did reverse form with Militarize, but I'd be a little surprised if he did finish in front of that one again here.   Verdict - A fascinating renewal of the Cox Plate. I must admit my initial thinking was to take on Romantic Warrior, but on looking back at the Turnbull run and the fact the race looks red hot form wise I think he is the most likely winner. He will surely come on plenty for his first run since May and his Hong Kong form does look the best in the race. I will also be having a couple of small savours in the race. Gold Trip has to be one of them given he won the Turnbull and was huge off top weight in the Caulfield Cup last week. We know he can handle the quick back up and granted luck in running he will surely improve massively on his 9th in this last year. I was also hugely impressed by Fangirl at Randwick and if she stays I think she goes close as she looks in career best form.   Romantic Warrior @ 7/2 with William Hill Gold Trip @ 7/1 with William Hill and Bet365 Fangirl @ 6/1 with William Hill and Bet365   NB if having an e/w bet William Hill are going 4 places
  9. Like
    Darran got a reaction from richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    The Cox Plate is the biggest WFA race in Australia and it looks set to be a cracking race and with it being 7/2 the field it is a competitive one as well. Here is my spin through the runners.   Romantic Warrior - Superb form over in Hong Kong and was a warm order for the Turnbull on his first start in Australia, but my initial thinking was that he was a little disappointing in being beaten around 4L by Gold Trip into 4th place. It has to be said though that the form worked out well in the Caulfield Cup last week so given it was his first run since May perhaps it wasn't quite as bad as I initially thought. I think the natural reaction when a short price fav is out of the frame that it wasn't a great run, but it is clearly important to put the run into context. James McDonald is confident that the horse has come on a lot since the Flemington run and if he has then he could easily turn the form around with Gold Trip and go very close to winning.   Zakki - Ex Sir Micheal Stoute horse who has done very well for his new connections in Australia. He's 9 now, but he's run two very good races over 1400m and 1600m this prep at Randwick and the first of them he was just beaten by Fangirl. I'd be surprised if he was good enough especially as he's drawn in 12, but he can run another solid race.   Mr Brightside - Has already bagged a couple of G1's this prep winning the Memsie over 1400m at Caulfield and then the Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m beating Alligator Blood. He was odds on to win the King Charles III at Randwick a couple of weeks ago, but was more than put in his place by Fangirl. It's been suggested the ground was too firm for him that day, but it was a Good 3 when he won the time before. The problem for me though is the trip as he was only 7th in this last year and I think he needs 1600m to be at his best.   Alligator Blood - Looked a non-stayer in this last year when only 5th, but that did come on softer ground and he certainly stayed 2000m well when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of winning the G1 Underwood the start before. As impressive as he was though at Caulfield I'm not sure it was that strong a race as the favourite was a huge disappointment and he ended up only beating former Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare who is clearly better over further. I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but this will be a tougher test over the trip than his win last time.   Gold Trip - What a year he has had. He ran in the Caulfield Cup last year finishing 2nd, he was then 9th in this before winning the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn prep wasn't great, but he is back in great form this prep having won the Turnbull in fantastic fashion and then a really good 3rd last week in the Caulfield Cup given he didn't get a lot of luck in running at all. Clearly he is flying and he didn't get much luck in running in this last year either so the fact he was only 9th can be overlooked a bit. He showed last year that he keeps his form and if he gets better luck in running then he is more than capable of winning this.   My Oberon - 3rd in the King Charles III last time which was a solid run, but suggests he shouldn't be good enough.   Pinstriped - Won a G2 here over a mile last month and ran OK a couple of weeks ago in the Toorak which is a G1 handicap over a mile. I'd be surprised if he was good enough.   Fangirl - Trainer clearly knows how to win this race with a mare and she has been in flying form this prep winning the G1 Winx Stakes and the King Charles III last time out. I was really impressed last time and whilst she is untested over this far, she wasn't stopping last time and she has a potent turn of foot. If she stays I think she will go close.   Duais - 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Caulfield Stakes and the Underwood and she was 7th behind Fangirl in the Winx Stakes which all suggests to me she wont be winning this.   Victoria Road - The one European runner in the race and will be leaving Aiden O'Brien and staying in Australia. He took 5 runs to win finally landing a Gowran Park maiden last August. He then followed that up with 3 more wins which included a Listed Race and a G3 both in France, before landing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by a nose. The 2nd was Silver Knott who has done little for the form this season, but then again Charlie Appleby's horses haven't always been in great form. He missed his intended seasonal return at Longchamp after getting injured and wasn't seen again until August when he was 7th behind Ace Impact at Deauville. He was then 2nd in the Park Stakes at Leopardstown last month. It was a much better run and you would imagine Aiden has been aiming him at this, but Buckaroo was 2nd in that race and he was a never involved 7th behind Fangirl in the King Charles III Stakes. Clearly anything the yard sends to Australia has to be respected and if he wins then so be it, but I am just not sure he is good enough on bare form.    Militarize - Won the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill last month and then didn't get a race run to suit when favourite in the Caulfield Guineas a couple of weeks ago finishing 5th. Landed a couple of G1's last prep so clearly a top class horse, but he's never run over this trip. Does get plenty of weight as a 3yo though.   King Colorado - Won a G1 in Queensland in June on his 3rd start, but was only 9th in the Winx Stakes and 7th in the Golden Rose. Was 4th in the Caulfield Guineas last time so did reverse form with Militarize, but I'd be a little surprised if he did finish in front of that one again here.   Verdict - A fascinating renewal of the Cox Plate. I must admit my initial thinking was to take on Romantic Warrior, but on looking back at the Turnbull run and the fact the race looks red hot form wise I think he is the most likely winner. He will surely come on plenty for his first run since May and his Hong Kong form does look the best in the race. I will also be having a couple of small savours in the race. Gold Trip has to be one of them given he won the Turnbull and was huge off top weight in the Caulfield Cup last week. We know he can handle the quick back up and granted luck in running he will surely improve massively on his 9th in this last year. I was also hugely impressed by Fangirl at Randwick and if she stays I think she goes close as she looks in career best form.   Romantic Warrior @ 7/2 with William Hill Gold Trip @ 7/1 with William Hill and Bet365 Fangirl @ 6/1 with William Hill and Bet365   NB if having an e/w bet William Hill are going 4 places
  10. Like
    Darran got a reaction from black rabbit in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    Won’t see a better race all day than the Cox Plate and I’m still not sure how Romantic Warrior managed to get his head in front on the line. Now 3/3 in the big spring Aussie races. Will attempt to make it 4/4 in the Melbourne Cup a week on Tuesday 
  11. Thanks
    Darran got a reaction from Bronxie in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    Won’t see a better race all day than the Cox Plate and I’m still not sure how Romantic Warrior managed to get his head in front on the line. Now 3/3 in the big spring Aussie races. Will attempt to make it 4/4 in the Melbourne Cup a week on Tuesday 
  12. Like
    Darran got a reaction from Nigwilliam in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    The Cox Plate is the biggest WFA race in Australia and it looks set to be a cracking race and with it being 7/2 the field it is a competitive one as well. Here is my spin through the runners.   Romantic Warrior - Superb form over in Hong Kong and was a warm order for the Turnbull on his first start in Australia, but my initial thinking was that he was a little disappointing in being beaten around 4L by Gold Trip into 4th place. It has to be said though that the form worked out well in the Caulfield Cup last week so given it was his first run since May perhaps it wasn't quite as bad as I initially thought. I think the natural reaction when a short price fav is out of the frame that it wasn't a great run, but it is clearly important to put the run into context. James McDonald is confident that the horse has come on a lot since the Flemington run and if he has then he could easily turn the form around with Gold Trip and go very close to winning.   Zakki - Ex Sir Micheal Stoute horse who has done very well for his new connections in Australia. He's 9 now, but he's run two very good races over 1400m and 1600m this prep at Randwick and the first of them he was just beaten by Fangirl. I'd be surprised if he was good enough especially as he's drawn in 12, but he can run another solid race.   Mr Brightside - Has already bagged a couple of G1's this prep winning the Memsie over 1400m at Caulfield and then the Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m beating Alligator Blood. He was odds on to win the King Charles III at Randwick a couple of weeks ago, but was more than put in his place by Fangirl. It's been suggested the ground was too firm for him that day, but it was a Good 3 when he won the time before. The problem for me though is the trip as he was only 7th in this last year and I think he needs 1600m to be at his best.   Alligator Blood - Looked a non-stayer in this last year when only 5th, but that did come on softer ground and he certainly stayed 2000m well when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of winning the G1 Underwood the start before. As impressive as he was though at Caulfield I'm not sure it was that strong a race as the favourite was a huge disappointment and he ended up only beating former Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare who is clearly better over further. I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but this will be a tougher test over the trip than his win last time.   Gold Trip - What a year he has had. He ran in the Caulfield Cup last year finishing 2nd, he was then 9th in this before winning the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn prep wasn't great, but he is back in great form this prep having won the Turnbull in fantastic fashion and then a really good 3rd last week in the Caulfield Cup given he didn't get a lot of luck in running at all. Clearly he is flying and he didn't get much luck in running in this last year either so the fact he was only 9th can be overlooked a bit. He showed last year that he keeps his form and if he gets better luck in running then he is more than capable of winning this.   My Oberon - 3rd in the King Charles III last time which was a solid run, but suggests he shouldn't be good enough.   Pinstriped - Won a G2 here over a mile last month and ran OK a couple of weeks ago in the Toorak which is a G1 handicap over a mile. I'd be surprised if he was good enough.   Fangirl - Trainer clearly knows how to win this race with a mare and she has been in flying form this prep winning the G1 Winx Stakes and the King Charles III last time out. I was really impressed last time and whilst she is untested over this far, she wasn't stopping last time and she has a potent turn of foot. If she stays I think she will go close.   Duais - 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Caulfield Stakes and the Underwood and she was 7th behind Fangirl in the Winx Stakes which all suggests to me she wont be winning this.   Victoria Road - The one European runner in the race and will be leaving Aiden O'Brien and staying in Australia. He took 5 runs to win finally landing a Gowran Park maiden last August. He then followed that up with 3 more wins which included a Listed Race and a G3 both in France, before landing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by a nose. The 2nd was Silver Knott who has done little for the form this season, but then again Charlie Appleby's horses haven't always been in great form. He missed his intended seasonal return at Longchamp after getting injured and wasn't seen again until August when he was 7th behind Ace Impact at Deauville. He was then 2nd in the Park Stakes at Leopardstown last month. It was a much better run and you would imagine Aiden has been aiming him at this, but Buckaroo was 2nd in that race and he was a never involved 7th behind Fangirl in the King Charles III Stakes. Clearly anything the yard sends to Australia has to be respected and if he wins then so be it, but I am just not sure he is good enough on bare form.    Militarize - Won the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill last month and then didn't get a race run to suit when favourite in the Caulfield Guineas a couple of weeks ago finishing 5th. Landed a couple of G1's last prep so clearly a top class horse, but he's never run over this trip. Does get plenty of weight as a 3yo though.   King Colorado - Won a G1 in Queensland in June on his 3rd start, but was only 9th in the Winx Stakes and 7th in the Golden Rose. Was 4th in the Caulfield Guineas last time so did reverse form with Militarize, but I'd be a little surprised if he did finish in front of that one again here.   Verdict - A fascinating renewal of the Cox Plate. I must admit my initial thinking was to take on Romantic Warrior, but on looking back at the Turnbull run and the fact the race looks red hot form wise I think he is the most likely winner. He will surely come on plenty for his first run since May and his Hong Kong form does look the best in the race. I will also be having a couple of small savours in the race. Gold Trip has to be one of them given he won the Turnbull and was huge off top weight in the Caulfield Cup last week. We know he can handle the quick back up and granted luck in running he will surely improve massively on his 9th in this last year. I was also hugely impressed by Fangirl at Randwick and if she stays I think she goes close as she looks in career best form.   Romantic Warrior @ 7/2 with William Hill Gold Trip @ 7/1 with William Hill and Bet365 Fangirl @ 6/1 with William Hill and Bet365   NB if having an e/w bet William Hill are going 4 places
  13. Like
    Darran got a reaction from Nigwilliam in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    Won’t see a better race all day than the Cox Plate and I’m still not sure how Romantic Warrior managed to get his head in front on the line. Now 3/3 in the big spring Aussie races. Will attempt to make it 4/4 in the Melbourne Cup a week on Tuesday 
  14. Like
    Darran got a reaction from harry_rag in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    Won’t see a better race all day than the Cox Plate and I’m still not sure how Romantic Warrior managed to get his head in front on the line. Now 3/3 in the big spring Aussie races. Will attempt to make it 4/4 in the Melbourne Cup a week on Tuesday 
  15. Thanks
    Darran got a reaction from Brahmin in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    The Cox Plate is the biggest WFA race in Australia and it looks set to be a cracking race and with it being 7/2 the field it is a competitive one as well. Here is my spin through the runners.   Romantic Warrior - Superb form over in Hong Kong and was a warm order for the Turnbull on his first start in Australia, but my initial thinking was that he was a little disappointing in being beaten around 4L by Gold Trip into 4th place. It has to be said though that the form worked out well in the Caulfield Cup last week so given it was his first run since May perhaps it wasn't quite as bad as I initially thought. I think the natural reaction when a short price fav is out of the frame that it wasn't a great run, but it is clearly important to put the run into context. James McDonald is confident that the horse has come on a lot since the Flemington run and if he has then he could easily turn the form around with Gold Trip and go very close to winning.   Zakki - Ex Sir Micheal Stoute horse who has done very well for his new connections in Australia. He's 9 now, but he's run two very good races over 1400m and 1600m this prep at Randwick and the first of them he was just beaten by Fangirl. I'd be surprised if he was good enough especially as he's drawn in 12, but he can run another solid race.   Mr Brightside - Has already bagged a couple of G1's this prep winning the Memsie over 1400m at Caulfield and then the Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m beating Alligator Blood. He was odds on to win the King Charles III at Randwick a couple of weeks ago, but was more than put in his place by Fangirl. It's been suggested the ground was too firm for him that day, but it was a Good 3 when he won the time before. The problem for me though is the trip as he was only 7th in this last year and I think he needs 1600m to be at his best.   Alligator Blood - Looked a non-stayer in this last year when only 5th, but that did come on softer ground and he certainly stayed 2000m well when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of winning the G1 Underwood the start before. As impressive as he was though at Caulfield I'm not sure it was that strong a race as the favourite was a huge disappointment and he ended up only beating former Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare who is clearly better over further. I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but this will be a tougher test over the trip than his win last time.   Gold Trip - What a year he has had. He ran in the Caulfield Cup last year finishing 2nd, he was then 9th in this before winning the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn prep wasn't great, but he is back in great form this prep having won the Turnbull in fantastic fashion and then a really good 3rd last week in the Caulfield Cup given he didn't get a lot of luck in running at all. Clearly he is flying and he didn't get much luck in running in this last year either so the fact he was only 9th can be overlooked a bit. He showed last year that he keeps his form and if he gets better luck in running then he is more than capable of winning this.   My Oberon - 3rd in the King Charles III last time which was a solid run, but suggests he shouldn't be good enough.   Pinstriped - Won a G2 here over a mile last month and ran OK a couple of weeks ago in the Toorak which is a G1 handicap over a mile. I'd be surprised if he was good enough.   Fangirl - Trainer clearly knows how to win this race with a mare and she has been in flying form this prep winning the G1 Winx Stakes and the King Charles III last time out. I was really impressed last time and whilst she is untested over this far, she wasn't stopping last time and she has a potent turn of foot. If she stays I think she will go close.   Duais - 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Caulfield Stakes and the Underwood and she was 7th behind Fangirl in the Winx Stakes which all suggests to me she wont be winning this.   Victoria Road - The one European runner in the race and will be leaving Aiden O'Brien and staying in Australia. He took 5 runs to win finally landing a Gowran Park maiden last August. He then followed that up with 3 more wins which included a Listed Race and a G3 both in France, before landing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by a nose. The 2nd was Silver Knott who has done little for the form this season, but then again Charlie Appleby's horses haven't always been in great form. He missed his intended seasonal return at Longchamp after getting injured and wasn't seen again until August when he was 7th behind Ace Impact at Deauville. He was then 2nd in the Park Stakes at Leopardstown last month. It was a much better run and you would imagine Aiden has been aiming him at this, but Buckaroo was 2nd in that race and he was a never involved 7th behind Fangirl in the King Charles III Stakes. Clearly anything the yard sends to Australia has to be respected and if he wins then so be it, but I am just not sure he is good enough on bare form.    Militarize - Won the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill last month and then didn't get a race run to suit when favourite in the Caulfield Guineas a couple of weeks ago finishing 5th. Landed a couple of G1's last prep so clearly a top class horse, but he's never run over this trip. Does get plenty of weight as a 3yo though.   King Colorado - Won a G1 in Queensland in June on his 3rd start, but was only 9th in the Winx Stakes and 7th in the Golden Rose. Was 4th in the Caulfield Guineas last time so did reverse form with Militarize, but I'd be a little surprised if he did finish in front of that one again here.   Verdict - A fascinating renewal of the Cox Plate. I must admit my initial thinking was to take on Romantic Warrior, but on looking back at the Turnbull run and the fact the race looks red hot form wise I think he is the most likely winner. He will surely come on plenty for his first run since May and his Hong Kong form does look the best in the race. I will also be having a couple of small savours in the race. Gold Trip has to be one of them given he won the Turnbull and was huge off top weight in the Caulfield Cup last week. We know he can handle the quick back up and granted luck in running he will surely improve massively on his 9th in this last year. I was also hugely impressed by Fangirl at Randwick and if she stays I think she goes close as she looks in career best form.   Romantic Warrior @ 7/2 with William Hill Gold Trip @ 7/1 with William Hill and Bet365 Fangirl @ 6/1 with William Hill and Bet365   NB if having an e/w bet William Hill are going 4 places
  16. Like
    Darran got a reaction from justice in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    The Cox Plate is the biggest WFA race in Australia and it looks set to be a cracking race and with it being 7/2 the field it is a competitive one as well. Here is my spin through the runners.   Romantic Warrior - Superb form over in Hong Kong and was a warm order for the Turnbull on his first start in Australia, but my initial thinking was that he was a little disappointing in being beaten around 4L by Gold Trip into 4th place. It has to be said though that the form worked out well in the Caulfield Cup last week so given it was his first run since May perhaps it wasn't quite as bad as I initially thought. I think the natural reaction when a short price fav is out of the frame that it wasn't a great run, but it is clearly important to put the run into context. James McDonald is confident that the horse has come on a lot since the Flemington run and if he has then he could easily turn the form around with Gold Trip and go very close to winning.   Zakki - Ex Sir Micheal Stoute horse who has done very well for his new connections in Australia. He's 9 now, but he's run two very good races over 1400m and 1600m this prep at Randwick and the first of them he was just beaten by Fangirl. I'd be surprised if he was good enough especially as he's drawn in 12, but he can run another solid race.   Mr Brightside - Has already bagged a couple of G1's this prep winning the Memsie over 1400m at Caulfield and then the Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m beating Alligator Blood. He was odds on to win the King Charles III at Randwick a couple of weeks ago, but was more than put in his place by Fangirl. It's been suggested the ground was too firm for him that day, but it was a Good 3 when he won the time before. The problem for me though is the trip as he was only 7th in this last year and I think he needs 1600m to be at his best.   Alligator Blood - Looked a non-stayer in this last year when only 5th, but that did come on softer ground and he certainly stayed 2000m well when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of winning the G1 Underwood the start before. As impressive as he was though at Caulfield I'm not sure it was that strong a race as the favourite was a huge disappointment and he ended up only beating former Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare who is clearly better over further. I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but this will be a tougher test over the trip than his win last time.   Gold Trip - What a year he has had. He ran in the Caulfield Cup last year finishing 2nd, he was then 9th in this before winning the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn prep wasn't great, but he is back in great form this prep having won the Turnbull in fantastic fashion and then a really good 3rd last week in the Caulfield Cup given he didn't get a lot of luck in running at all. Clearly he is flying and he didn't get much luck in running in this last year either so the fact he was only 9th can be overlooked a bit. He showed last year that he keeps his form and if he gets better luck in running then he is more than capable of winning this.   My Oberon - 3rd in the King Charles III last time which was a solid run, but suggests he shouldn't be good enough.   Pinstriped - Won a G2 here over a mile last month and ran OK a couple of weeks ago in the Toorak which is a G1 handicap over a mile. I'd be surprised if he was good enough.   Fangirl - Trainer clearly knows how to win this race with a mare and she has been in flying form this prep winning the G1 Winx Stakes and the King Charles III last time out. I was really impressed last time and whilst she is untested over this far, she wasn't stopping last time and she has a potent turn of foot. If she stays I think she will go close.   Duais - 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Caulfield Stakes and the Underwood and she was 7th behind Fangirl in the Winx Stakes which all suggests to me she wont be winning this.   Victoria Road - The one European runner in the race and will be leaving Aiden O'Brien and staying in Australia. He took 5 runs to win finally landing a Gowran Park maiden last August. He then followed that up with 3 more wins which included a Listed Race and a G3 both in France, before landing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by a nose. The 2nd was Silver Knott who has done little for the form this season, but then again Charlie Appleby's horses haven't always been in great form. He missed his intended seasonal return at Longchamp after getting injured and wasn't seen again until August when he was 7th behind Ace Impact at Deauville. He was then 2nd in the Park Stakes at Leopardstown last month. It was a much better run and you would imagine Aiden has been aiming him at this, but Buckaroo was 2nd in that race and he was a never involved 7th behind Fangirl in the King Charles III Stakes. Clearly anything the yard sends to Australia has to be respected and if he wins then so be it, but I am just not sure he is good enough on bare form.    Militarize - Won the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill last month and then didn't get a race run to suit when favourite in the Caulfield Guineas a couple of weeks ago finishing 5th. Landed a couple of G1's last prep so clearly a top class horse, but he's never run over this trip. Does get plenty of weight as a 3yo though.   King Colorado - Won a G1 in Queensland in June on his 3rd start, but was only 9th in the Winx Stakes and 7th in the Golden Rose. Was 4th in the Caulfield Guineas last time so did reverse form with Militarize, but I'd be a little surprised if he did finish in front of that one again here.   Verdict - A fascinating renewal of the Cox Plate. I must admit my initial thinking was to take on Romantic Warrior, but on looking back at the Turnbull run and the fact the race looks red hot form wise I think he is the most likely winner. He will surely come on plenty for his first run since May and his Hong Kong form does look the best in the race. I will also be having a couple of small savours in the race. Gold Trip has to be one of them given he won the Turnbull and was huge off top weight in the Caulfield Cup last week. We know he can handle the quick back up and granted luck in running he will surely improve massively on his 9th in this last year. I was also hugely impressed by Fangirl at Randwick and if she stays I think she goes close as she looks in career best form.   Romantic Warrior @ 7/2 with William Hill Gold Trip @ 7/1 with William Hill and Bet365 Fangirl @ 6/1 with William Hill and Bet365   NB if having an e/w bet William Hill are going 4 places
  17. Like
    Darran got a reaction from yossa6133 in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    The Cox Plate is the biggest WFA race in Australia and it looks set to be a cracking race and with it being 7/2 the field it is a competitive one as well. Here is my spin through the runners.   Romantic Warrior - Superb form over in Hong Kong and was a warm order for the Turnbull on his first start in Australia, but my initial thinking was that he was a little disappointing in being beaten around 4L by Gold Trip into 4th place. It has to be said though that the form worked out well in the Caulfield Cup last week so given it was his first run since May perhaps it wasn't quite as bad as I initially thought. I think the natural reaction when a short price fav is out of the frame that it wasn't a great run, but it is clearly important to put the run into context. James McDonald is confident that the horse has come on a lot since the Flemington run and if he has then he could easily turn the form around with Gold Trip and go very close to winning.   Zakki - Ex Sir Micheal Stoute horse who has done very well for his new connections in Australia. He's 9 now, but he's run two very good races over 1400m and 1600m this prep at Randwick and the first of them he was just beaten by Fangirl. I'd be surprised if he was good enough especially as he's drawn in 12, but he can run another solid race.   Mr Brightside - Has already bagged a couple of G1's this prep winning the Memsie over 1400m at Caulfield and then the Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m beating Alligator Blood. He was odds on to win the King Charles III at Randwick a couple of weeks ago, but was more than put in his place by Fangirl. It's been suggested the ground was too firm for him that day, but it was a Good 3 when he won the time before. The problem for me though is the trip as he was only 7th in this last year and I think he needs 1600m to be at his best.   Alligator Blood - Looked a non-stayer in this last year when only 5th, but that did come on softer ground and he certainly stayed 2000m well when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of winning the G1 Underwood the start before. As impressive as he was though at Caulfield I'm not sure it was that strong a race as the favourite was a huge disappointment and he ended up only beating former Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare who is clearly better over further. I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but this will be a tougher test over the trip than his win last time.   Gold Trip - What a year he has had. He ran in the Caulfield Cup last year finishing 2nd, he was then 9th in this before winning the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn prep wasn't great, but he is back in great form this prep having won the Turnbull in fantastic fashion and then a really good 3rd last week in the Caulfield Cup given he didn't get a lot of luck in running at all. Clearly he is flying and he didn't get much luck in running in this last year either so the fact he was only 9th can be overlooked a bit. He showed last year that he keeps his form and if he gets better luck in running then he is more than capable of winning this.   My Oberon - 3rd in the King Charles III last time which was a solid run, but suggests he shouldn't be good enough.   Pinstriped - Won a G2 here over a mile last month and ran OK a couple of weeks ago in the Toorak which is a G1 handicap over a mile. I'd be surprised if he was good enough.   Fangirl - Trainer clearly knows how to win this race with a mare and she has been in flying form this prep winning the G1 Winx Stakes and the King Charles III last time out. I was really impressed last time and whilst she is untested over this far, she wasn't stopping last time and she has a potent turn of foot. If she stays I think she will go close.   Duais - 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Caulfield Stakes and the Underwood and she was 7th behind Fangirl in the Winx Stakes which all suggests to me she wont be winning this.   Victoria Road - The one European runner in the race and will be leaving Aiden O'Brien and staying in Australia. He took 5 runs to win finally landing a Gowran Park maiden last August. He then followed that up with 3 more wins which included a Listed Race and a G3 both in France, before landing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by a nose. The 2nd was Silver Knott who has done little for the form this season, but then again Charlie Appleby's horses haven't always been in great form. He missed his intended seasonal return at Longchamp after getting injured and wasn't seen again until August when he was 7th behind Ace Impact at Deauville. He was then 2nd in the Park Stakes at Leopardstown last month. It was a much better run and you would imagine Aiden has been aiming him at this, but Buckaroo was 2nd in that race and he was a never involved 7th behind Fangirl in the King Charles III Stakes. Clearly anything the yard sends to Australia has to be respected and if he wins then so be it, but I am just not sure he is good enough on bare form.    Militarize - Won the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill last month and then didn't get a race run to suit when favourite in the Caulfield Guineas a couple of weeks ago finishing 5th. Landed a couple of G1's last prep so clearly a top class horse, but he's never run over this trip. Does get plenty of weight as a 3yo though.   King Colorado - Won a G1 in Queensland in June on his 3rd start, but was only 9th in the Winx Stakes and 7th in the Golden Rose. Was 4th in the Caulfield Guineas last time so did reverse form with Militarize, but I'd be a little surprised if he did finish in front of that one again here.   Verdict - A fascinating renewal of the Cox Plate. I must admit my initial thinking was to take on Romantic Warrior, but on looking back at the Turnbull run and the fact the race looks red hot form wise I think he is the most likely winner. He will surely come on plenty for his first run since May and his Hong Kong form does look the best in the race. I will also be having a couple of small savours in the race. Gold Trip has to be one of them given he won the Turnbull and was huge off top weight in the Caulfield Cup last week. We know he can handle the quick back up and granted luck in running he will surely improve massively on his 9th in this last year. I was also hugely impressed by Fangirl at Randwick and if she stays I think she goes close as she looks in career best form.   Romantic Warrior @ 7/2 with William Hill Gold Trip @ 7/1 with William Hill and Bet365 Fangirl @ 6/1 with William Hill and Bet365   NB if having an e/w bet William Hill are going 4 places
  18. Like
    Darran got a reaction from The Brigadier in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    The Cox Plate is the biggest WFA race in Australia and it looks set to be a cracking race and with it being 7/2 the field it is a competitive one as well. Here is my spin through the runners.   Romantic Warrior - Superb form over in Hong Kong and was a warm order for the Turnbull on his first start in Australia, but my initial thinking was that he was a little disappointing in being beaten around 4L by Gold Trip into 4th place. It has to be said though that the form worked out well in the Caulfield Cup last week so given it was his first run since May perhaps it wasn't quite as bad as I initially thought. I think the natural reaction when a short price fav is out of the frame that it wasn't a great run, but it is clearly important to put the run into context. James McDonald is confident that the horse has come on a lot since the Flemington run and if he has then he could easily turn the form around with Gold Trip and go very close to winning.   Zakki - Ex Sir Micheal Stoute horse who has done very well for his new connections in Australia. He's 9 now, but he's run two very good races over 1400m and 1600m this prep at Randwick and the first of them he was just beaten by Fangirl. I'd be surprised if he was good enough especially as he's drawn in 12, but he can run another solid race.   Mr Brightside - Has already bagged a couple of G1's this prep winning the Memsie over 1400m at Caulfield and then the Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m beating Alligator Blood. He was odds on to win the King Charles III at Randwick a couple of weeks ago, but was more than put in his place by Fangirl. It's been suggested the ground was too firm for him that day, but it was a Good 3 when he won the time before. The problem for me though is the trip as he was only 7th in this last year and I think he needs 1600m to be at his best.   Alligator Blood - Looked a non-stayer in this last year when only 5th, but that did come on softer ground and he certainly stayed 2000m well when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of winning the G1 Underwood the start before. As impressive as he was though at Caulfield I'm not sure it was that strong a race as the favourite was a huge disappointment and he ended up only beating former Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare who is clearly better over further. I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but this will be a tougher test over the trip than his win last time.   Gold Trip - What a year he has had. He ran in the Caulfield Cup last year finishing 2nd, he was then 9th in this before winning the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn prep wasn't great, but he is back in great form this prep having won the Turnbull in fantastic fashion and then a really good 3rd last week in the Caulfield Cup given he didn't get a lot of luck in running at all. Clearly he is flying and he didn't get much luck in running in this last year either so the fact he was only 9th can be overlooked a bit. He showed last year that he keeps his form and if he gets better luck in running then he is more than capable of winning this.   My Oberon - 3rd in the King Charles III last time which was a solid run, but suggests he shouldn't be good enough.   Pinstriped - Won a G2 here over a mile last month and ran OK a couple of weeks ago in the Toorak which is a G1 handicap over a mile. I'd be surprised if he was good enough.   Fangirl - Trainer clearly knows how to win this race with a mare and she has been in flying form this prep winning the G1 Winx Stakes and the King Charles III last time out. I was really impressed last time and whilst she is untested over this far, she wasn't stopping last time and she has a potent turn of foot. If she stays I think she will go close.   Duais - 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Caulfield Stakes and the Underwood and she was 7th behind Fangirl in the Winx Stakes which all suggests to me she wont be winning this.   Victoria Road - The one European runner in the race and will be leaving Aiden O'Brien and staying in Australia. He took 5 runs to win finally landing a Gowran Park maiden last August. He then followed that up with 3 more wins which included a Listed Race and a G3 both in France, before landing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by a nose. The 2nd was Silver Knott who has done little for the form this season, but then again Charlie Appleby's horses haven't always been in great form. He missed his intended seasonal return at Longchamp after getting injured and wasn't seen again until August when he was 7th behind Ace Impact at Deauville. He was then 2nd in the Park Stakes at Leopardstown last month. It was a much better run and you would imagine Aiden has been aiming him at this, but Buckaroo was 2nd in that race and he was a never involved 7th behind Fangirl in the King Charles III Stakes. Clearly anything the yard sends to Australia has to be respected and if he wins then so be it, but I am just not sure he is good enough on bare form.    Militarize - Won the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill last month and then didn't get a race run to suit when favourite in the Caulfield Guineas a couple of weeks ago finishing 5th. Landed a couple of G1's last prep so clearly a top class horse, but he's never run over this trip. Does get plenty of weight as a 3yo though.   King Colorado - Won a G1 in Queensland in June on his 3rd start, but was only 9th in the Winx Stakes and 7th in the Golden Rose. Was 4th in the Caulfield Guineas last time so did reverse form with Militarize, but I'd be a little surprised if he did finish in front of that one again here.   Verdict - A fascinating renewal of the Cox Plate. I must admit my initial thinking was to take on Romantic Warrior, but on looking back at the Turnbull run and the fact the race looks red hot form wise I think he is the most likely winner. He will surely come on plenty for his first run since May and his Hong Kong form does look the best in the race. I will also be having a couple of small savours in the race. Gold Trip has to be one of them given he won the Turnbull and was huge off top weight in the Caulfield Cup last week. We know he can handle the quick back up and granted luck in running he will surely improve massively on his 9th in this last year. I was also hugely impressed by Fangirl at Randwick and if she stays I think she goes close as she looks in career best form.   Romantic Warrior @ 7/2 with William Hill Gold Trip @ 7/1 with William Hill and Bet365 Fangirl @ 6/1 with William Hill and Bet365   NB if having an e/w bet William Hill are going 4 places
  19. Like
    Darran got a reaction from MCLARKE in Plumpton Racecourse   
    Always love going to Plumpton and it is always busy probably because it is so easy to get to by train. You are nice and close to the action and I'm sure you will enjoy it.
  20. Like
    Darran got a reaction from black rabbit in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    The Cox Plate is the biggest WFA race in Australia and it looks set to be a cracking race and with it being 7/2 the field it is a competitive one as well. Here is my spin through the runners.   Romantic Warrior - Superb form over in Hong Kong and was a warm order for the Turnbull on his first start in Australia, but my initial thinking was that he was a little disappointing in being beaten around 4L by Gold Trip into 4th place. It has to be said though that the form worked out well in the Caulfield Cup last week so given it was his first run since May perhaps it wasn't quite as bad as I initially thought. I think the natural reaction when a short price fav is out of the frame that it wasn't a great run, but it is clearly important to put the run into context. James McDonald is confident that the horse has come on a lot since the Flemington run and if he has then he could easily turn the form around with Gold Trip and go very close to winning.   Zakki - Ex Sir Micheal Stoute horse who has done very well for his new connections in Australia. He's 9 now, but he's run two very good races over 1400m and 1600m this prep at Randwick and the first of them he was just beaten by Fangirl. I'd be surprised if he was good enough especially as he's drawn in 12, but he can run another solid race.   Mr Brightside - Has already bagged a couple of G1's this prep winning the Memsie over 1400m at Caulfield and then the Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m beating Alligator Blood. He was odds on to win the King Charles III at Randwick a couple of weeks ago, but was more than put in his place by Fangirl. It's been suggested the ground was too firm for him that day, but it was a Good 3 when he won the time before. The problem for me though is the trip as he was only 7th in this last year and I think he needs 1600m to be at his best.   Alligator Blood - Looked a non-stayer in this last year when only 5th, but that did come on softer ground and he certainly stayed 2000m well when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of winning the G1 Underwood the start before. As impressive as he was though at Caulfield I'm not sure it was that strong a race as the favourite was a huge disappointment and he ended up only beating former Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare who is clearly better over further. I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but this will be a tougher test over the trip than his win last time.   Gold Trip - What a year he has had. He ran in the Caulfield Cup last year finishing 2nd, he was then 9th in this before winning the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn prep wasn't great, but he is back in great form this prep having won the Turnbull in fantastic fashion and then a really good 3rd last week in the Caulfield Cup given he didn't get a lot of luck in running at all. Clearly he is flying and he didn't get much luck in running in this last year either so the fact he was only 9th can be overlooked a bit. He showed last year that he keeps his form and if he gets better luck in running then he is more than capable of winning this.   My Oberon - 3rd in the King Charles III last time which was a solid run, but suggests he shouldn't be good enough.   Pinstriped - Won a G2 here over a mile last month and ran OK a couple of weeks ago in the Toorak which is a G1 handicap over a mile. I'd be surprised if he was good enough.   Fangirl - Trainer clearly knows how to win this race with a mare and she has been in flying form this prep winning the G1 Winx Stakes and the King Charles III last time out. I was really impressed last time and whilst she is untested over this far, she wasn't stopping last time and she has a potent turn of foot. If she stays I think she will go close.   Duais - 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Caulfield Stakes and the Underwood and she was 7th behind Fangirl in the Winx Stakes which all suggests to me she wont be winning this.   Victoria Road - The one European runner in the race and will be leaving Aiden O'Brien and staying in Australia. He took 5 runs to win finally landing a Gowran Park maiden last August. He then followed that up with 3 more wins which included a Listed Race and a G3 both in France, before landing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by a nose. The 2nd was Silver Knott who has done little for the form this season, but then again Charlie Appleby's horses haven't always been in great form. He missed his intended seasonal return at Longchamp after getting injured and wasn't seen again until August when he was 7th behind Ace Impact at Deauville. He was then 2nd in the Park Stakes at Leopardstown last month. It was a much better run and you would imagine Aiden has been aiming him at this, but Buckaroo was 2nd in that race and he was a never involved 7th behind Fangirl in the King Charles III Stakes. Clearly anything the yard sends to Australia has to be respected and if he wins then so be it, but I am just not sure he is good enough on bare form.    Militarize - Won the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill last month and then didn't get a race run to suit when favourite in the Caulfield Guineas a couple of weeks ago finishing 5th. Landed a couple of G1's last prep so clearly a top class horse, but he's never run over this trip. Does get plenty of weight as a 3yo though.   King Colorado - Won a G1 in Queensland in June on his 3rd start, but was only 9th in the Winx Stakes and 7th in the Golden Rose. Was 4th in the Caulfield Guineas last time so did reverse form with Militarize, but I'd be a little surprised if he did finish in front of that one again here.   Verdict - A fascinating renewal of the Cox Plate. I must admit my initial thinking was to take on Romantic Warrior, but on looking back at the Turnbull run and the fact the race looks red hot form wise I think he is the most likely winner. He will surely come on plenty for his first run since May and his Hong Kong form does look the best in the race. I will also be having a couple of small savours in the race. Gold Trip has to be one of them given he won the Turnbull and was huge off top weight in the Caulfield Cup last week. We know he can handle the quick back up and granted luck in running he will surely improve massively on his 9th in this last year. I was also hugely impressed by Fangirl at Randwick and if she stays I think she goes close as she looks in career best form.   Romantic Warrior @ 7/2 with William Hill Gold Trip @ 7/1 with William Hill and Bet365 Fangirl @ 6/1 with William Hill and Bet365   NB if having an e/w bet William Hill are going 4 places
  21. Like
    Darran got a reaction from LEE-GRAYS in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    The Cox Plate is the biggest WFA race in Australia and it looks set to be a cracking race and with it being 7/2 the field it is a competitive one as well. Here is my spin through the runners.   Romantic Warrior - Superb form over in Hong Kong and was a warm order for the Turnbull on his first start in Australia, but my initial thinking was that he was a little disappointing in being beaten around 4L by Gold Trip into 4th place. It has to be said though that the form worked out well in the Caulfield Cup last week so given it was his first run since May perhaps it wasn't quite as bad as I initially thought. I think the natural reaction when a short price fav is out of the frame that it wasn't a great run, but it is clearly important to put the run into context. James McDonald is confident that the horse has come on a lot since the Flemington run and if he has then he could easily turn the form around with Gold Trip and go very close to winning.   Zakki - Ex Sir Micheal Stoute horse who has done very well for his new connections in Australia. He's 9 now, but he's run two very good races over 1400m and 1600m this prep at Randwick and the first of them he was just beaten by Fangirl. I'd be surprised if he was good enough especially as he's drawn in 12, but he can run another solid race.   Mr Brightside - Has already bagged a couple of G1's this prep winning the Memsie over 1400m at Caulfield and then the Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m beating Alligator Blood. He was odds on to win the King Charles III at Randwick a couple of weeks ago, but was more than put in his place by Fangirl. It's been suggested the ground was too firm for him that day, but it was a Good 3 when he won the time before. The problem for me though is the trip as he was only 7th in this last year and I think he needs 1600m to be at his best.   Alligator Blood - Looked a non-stayer in this last year when only 5th, but that did come on softer ground and he certainly stayed 2000m well when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of winning the G1 Underwood the start before. As impressive as he was though at Caulfield I'm not sure it was that strong a race as the favourite was a huge disappointment and he ended up only beating former Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare who is clearly better over further. I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but this will be a tougher test over the trip than his win last time.   Gold Trip - What a year he has had. He ran in the Caulfield Cup last year finishing 2nd, he was then 9th in this before winning the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn prep wasn't great, but he is back in great form this prep having won the Turnbull in fantastic fashion and then a really good 3rd last week in the Caulfield Cup given he didn't get a lot of luck in running at all. Clearly he is flying and he didn't get much luck in running in this last year either so the fact he was only 9th can be overlooked a bit. He showed last year that he keeps his form and if he gets better luck in running then he is more than capable of winning this.   My Oberon - 3rd in the King Charles III last time which was a solid run, but suggests he shouldn't be good enough.   Pinstriped - Won a G2 here over a mile last month and ran OK a couple of weeks ago in the Toorak which is a G1 handicap over a mile. I'd be surprised if he was good enough.   Fangirl - Trainer clearly knows how to win this race with a mare and she has been in flying form this prep winning the G1 Winx Stakes and the King Charles III last time out. I was really impressed last time and whilst she is untested over this far, she wasn't stopping last time and she has a potent turn of foot. If she stays I think she will go close.   Duais - 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Caulfield Stakes and the Underwood and she was 7th behind Fangirl in the Winx Stakes which all suggests to me she wont be winning this.   Victoria Road - The one European runner in the race and will be leaving Aiden O'Brien and staying in Australia. He took 5 runs to win finally landing a Gowran Park maiden last August. He then followed that up with 3 more wins which included a Listed Race and a G3 both in France, before landing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by a nose. The 2nd was Silver Knott who has done little for the form this season, but then again Charlie Appleby's horses haven't always been in great form. He missed his intended seasonal return at Longchamp after getting injured and wasn't seen again until August when he was 7th behind Ace Impact at Deauville. He was then 2nd in the Park Stakes at Leopardstown last month. It was a much better run and you would imagine Aiden has been aiming him at this, but Buckaroo was 2nd in that race and he was a never involved 7th behind Fangirl in the King Charles III Stakes. Clearly anything the yard sends to Australia has to be respected and if he wins then so be it, but I am just not sure he is good enough on bare form.    Militarize - Won the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill last month and then didn't get a race run to suit when favourite in the Caulfield Guineas a couple of weeks ago finishing 5th. Landed a couple of G1's last prep so clearly a top class horse, but he's never run over this trip. Does get plenty of weight as a 3yo though.   King Colorado - Won a G1 in Queensland in June on his 3rd start, but was only 9th in the Winx Stakes and 7th in the Golden Rose. Was 4th in the Caulfield Guineas last time so did reverse form with Militarize, but I'd be a little surprised if he did finish in front of that one again here.   Verdict - A fascinating renewal of the Cox Plate. I must admit my initial thinking was to take on Romantic Warrior, but on looking back at the Turnbull run and the fact the race looks red hot form wise I think he is the most likely winner. He will surely come on plenty for his first run since May and his Hong Kong form does look the best in the race. I will also be having a couple of small savours in the race. Gold Trip has to be one of them given he won the Turnbull and was huge off top weight in the Caulfield Cup last week. We know he can handle the quick back up and granted luck in running he will surely improve massively on his 9th in this last year. I was also hugely impressed by Fangirl at Randwick and if she stays I think she goes close as she looks in career best form.   Romantic Warrior @ 7/2 with William Hill Gold Trip @ 7/1 with William Hill and Bet365 Fangirl @ 6/1 with William Hill and Bet365   NB if having an e/w bet William Hill are going 4 places
  22. Like
    Darran got a reaction from blueboy199 in Racing Chat - Saturday 28th October   
    The Cox Plate is the biggest WFA race in Australia and it looks set to be a cracking race and with it being 7/2 the field it is a competitive one as well. Here is my spin through the runners.   Romantic Warrior - Superb form over in Hong Kong and was a warm order for the Turnbull on his first start in Australia, but my initial thinking was that he was a little disappointing in being beaten around 4L by Gold Trip into 4th place. It has to be said though that the form worked out well in the Caulfield Cup last week so given it was his first run since May perhaps it wasn't quite as bad as I initially thought. I think the natural reaction when a short price fav is out of the frame that it wasn't a great run, but it is clearly important to put the run into context. James McDonald is confident that the horse has come on a lot since the Flemington run and if he has then he could easily turn the form around with Gold Trip and go very close to winning.   Zakki - Ex Sir Micheal Stoute horse who has done very well for his new connections in Australia. He's 9 now, but he's run two very good races over 1400m and 1600m this prep at Randwick and the first of them he was just beaten by Fangirl. I'd be surprised if he was good enough especially as he's drawn in 12, but he can run another solid race.   Mr Brightside - Has already bagged a couple of G1's this prep winning the Memsie over 1400m at Caulfield and then the Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m beating Alligator Blood. He was odds on to win the King Charles III at Randwick a couple of weeks ago, but was more than put in his place by Fangirl. It's been suggested the ground was too firm for him that day, but it was a Good 3 when he won the time before. The problem for me though is the trip as he was only 7th in this last year and I think he needs 1600m to be at his best.   Alligator Blood - Looked a non-stayer in this last year when only 5th, but that did come on softer ground and he certainly stayed 2000m well when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of winning the G1 Underwood the start before. As impressive as he was though at Caulfield I'm not sure it was that strong a race as the favourite was a huge disappointment and he ended up only beating former Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare who is clearly better over further. I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but this will be a tougher test over the trip than his win last time.   Gold Trip - What a year he has had. He ran in the Caulfield Cup last year finishing 2nd, he was then 9th in this before winning the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn prep wasn't great, but he is back in great form this prep having won the Turnbull in fantastic fashion and then a really good 3rd last week in the Caulfield Cup given he didn't get a lot of luck in running at all. Clearly he is flying and he didn't get much luck in running in this last year either so the fact he was only 9th can be overlooked a bit. He showed last year that he keeps his form and if he gets better luck in running then he is more than capable of winning this.   My Oberon - 3rd in the King Charles III last time which was a solid run, but suggests he shouldn't be good enough.   Pinstriped - Won a G2 here over a mile last month and ran OK a couple of weeks ago in the Toorak which is a G1 handicap over a mile. I'd be surprised if he was good enough.   Fangirl - Trainer clearly knows how to win this race with a mare and she has been in flying form this prep winning the G1 Winx Stakes and the King Charles III last time out. I was really impressed last time and whilst she is untested over this far, she wasn't stopping last time and she has a potent turn of foot. If she stays I think she will go close.   Duais - 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Caulfield Stakes and the Underwood and she was 7th behind Fangirl in the Winx Stakes which all suggests to me she wont be winning this.   Victoria Road - The one European runner in the race and will be leaving Aiden O'Brien and staying in Australia. He took 5 runs to win finally landing a Gowran Park maiden last August. He then followed that up with 3 more wins which included a Listed Race and a G3 both in France, before landing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by a nose. The 2nd was Silver Knott who has done little for the form this season, but then again Charlie Appleby's horses haven't always been in great form. He missed his intended seasonal return at Longchamp after getting injured and wasn't seen again until August when he was 7th behind Ace Impact at Deauville. He was then 2nd in the Park Stakes at Leopardstown last month. It was a much better run and you would imagine Aiden has been aiming him at this, but Buckaroo was 2nd in that race and he was a never involved 7th behind Fangirl in the King Charles III Stakes. Clearly anything the yard sends to Australia has to be respected and if he wins then so be it, but I am just not sure he is good enough on bare form.    Militarize - Won the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill last month and then didn't get a race run to suit when favourite in the Caulfield Guineas a couple of weeks ago finishing 5th. Landed a couple of G1's last prep so clearly a top class horse, but he's never run over this trip. Does get plenty of weight as a 3yo though.   King Colorado - Won a G1 in Queensland in June on his 3rd start, but was only 9th in the Winx Stakes and 7th in the Golden Rose. Was 4th in the Caulfield Guineas last time so did reverse form with Militarize, but I'd be a little surprised if he did finish in front of that one again here.   Verdict - A fascinating renewal of the Cox Plate. I must admit my initial thinking was to take on Romantic Warrior, but on looking back at the Turnbull run and the fact the race looks red hot form wise I think he is the most likely winner. He will surely come on plenty for his first run since May and his Hong Kong form does look the best in the race. I will also be having a couple of small savours in the race. Gold Trip has to be one of them given he won the Turnbull and was huge off top weight in the Caulfield Cup last week. We know he can handle the quick back up and granted luck in running he will surely improve massively on his 9th in this last year. I was also hugely impressed by Fangirl at Randwick and if she stays I think she goes close as she looks in career best form.   Romantic Warrior @ 7/2 with William Hill Gold Trip @ 7/1 with William Hill and Bet365 Fangirl @ 6/1 with William Hill and Bet365   NB if having an e/w bet William Hill are going 4 places
  23. Like
    Darran got a reaction from CakeCakeCake in Non-League Predictions - 21st October   
    Chesterfield v Gateshead Not ideal for Gateshead that their manager has departed for MK Dons given how well he has done for them and it isn't going to help their promotion cause this season. In the short term though I don't expect too much to change as it would be daft for the interim to change a successful formula. I do keep trying to take Chesterfield on and to be fair Bromley were awful against them the last time I did. I expect Gateshead to be different though and I think they will cause the home side problems. I'd make them closer to Chesterfield in the betting so will take a chance I can get them beat.   Rochdale v Oldham I took Oldham on last week and based on the match report (no stats go on Wyscout for that stage of the FA Cup) we were unlucky not to collect although Oldham. I am however going to back Oldham here as I am expecting a big upturn in performance now Micky Mellon has had a week to kick the team into shape. He looks a great choice of manager for them and for me they have the better squad than Rochdale so will take them to give Mellon his first win at the first time of asking.   Southend v Solihull Moors In hindsight I should have taken on Southend at Yeovil last weekend as they were down to the bare bones partly because some of their players were cup tied or in the case of the loanee from Charlton not allowed to play. Whilst clearly those things aren't an issue this weekend, it does seem they could be struggling for players again as there is illness going through the squad and they have also suffered more injuries. I do think Solihull have been over achieving, but it also seems that they are going to spend money again now they are in such a good position in the league and they signed a good player from Aveley yesterday. Obviously it is hard to know what team Southend are going to capable of putting out, but I do think Solihull are over priced anyway.   Prices from 12pm Friday   Gateshead 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365, William Hill, Skybet and Ladbrokes (Coral are 100/30 and take up to 5/2) Oldham 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Solihull 1pt @ 14/5 with Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power and Bet365 (take up to 2/1)
  24. Like
    Darran got a reaction from G1dders in Non-League Predictions - 21st October   
    Chesterfield v Gateshead Not ideal for Gateshead that their manager has departed for MK Dons given how well he has done for them and it isn't going to help their promotion cause this season. In the short term though I don't expect too much to change as it would be daft for the interim to change a successful formula. I do keep trying to take Chesterfield on and to be fair Bromley were awful against them the last time I did. I expect Gateshead to be different though and I think they will cause the home side problems. I'd make them closer to Chesterfield in the betting so will take a chance I can get them beat.   Rochdale v Oldham I took Oldham on last week and based on the match report (no stats go on Wyscout for that stage of the FA Cup) we were unlucky not to collect although Oldham. I am however going to back Oldham here as I am expecting a big upturn in performance now Micky Mellon has had a week to kick the team into shape. He looks a great choice of manager for them and for me they have the better squad than Rochdale so will take them to give Mellon his first win at the first time of asking.   Southend v Solihull Moors In hindsight I should have taken on Southend at Yeovil last weekend as they were down to the bare bones partly because some of their players were cup tied or in the case of the loanee from Charlton not allowed to play. Whilst clearly those things aren't an issue this weekend, it does seem they could be struggling for players again as there is illness going through the squad and they have also suffered more injuries. I do think Solihull have been over achieving, but it also seems that they are going to spend money again now they are in such a good position in the league and they signed a good player from Aveley yesterday. Obviously it is hard to know what team Southend are going to capable of putting out, but I do think Solihull are over priced anyway.   Prices from 12pm Friday   Gateshead 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365, William Hill, Skybet and Ladbrokes (Coral are 100/30 and take up to 5/2) Oldham 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Solihull 1pt @ 14/5 with Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power and Bet365 (take up to 2/1)
  25. Like
    Darran got a reaction from G1dders in Non-League Predictions - 21st October   
    Chesterfield v Gateshead is off
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