Darran

Rarely will a race plan out just as you think it will and rarely will than happen in the biggest hunter chase of the season, but pretty much everything I thought would happen at Cheltenham did happen. Obviously it helped I backed her, but I am really pleased that Sine Nomine won as it is a great result for British pointing. I had a interesting discussion with Johnny Dineen on Twitter who reckoned British hunter chases were just full of crocs which quite frankly was a disgraceful thing to say and she helped prove him wrong. She did what she always does and cruised round for most of the way until things got very interesting coming to the last. Having seen the head on I personally think John had every right to go up the inside and it was a bit of a naughty move from Derek. I'm sure he would say it was just race riding, but if John hadn't switched the mare you do wonder what might have happened. The switch just before the fence meant she didn't actually jump it all that well and she didn't look the winner at that stage. She flew up the run-in though and certainly proved any doubts I had about her seeing out the trip wrong because she ate up the ground to catch and pass Its On The Line. She's a top class mare and given her age you have to think she has a good chance of coming back next year and winning again. She hasn't been entered at Aintree and Cheltenham and Stratford have been mentioned as remaining targets for the season.    Its On The Line did travel well for a fair way and it was going down the back for the last time that he started having to be niggled along, but that was hardly a surprise. It was also no surprise that he kept going and going because that is what he does. He ran his race and I think he was just beaten by a better horse on the day who would have won by further if she hadn't had to switch before the last. It was a very good ride, but I saw some say that only he could have got him to run so well, but as I said in the preview he didn't ride him to win at Down Royal and he was hard work that day so I don't buy that. Derek reckons the horse will prefer Aintree, but he fell at Bechers last year and he was quite a long way back at the time. I'm not going to say he can't win, but he's been put in as favourite and it will need a very good ride if he finds himself out the back again for most of the race. The heavier the ground the better his chance I suspect. If he stays hunter chasing then no doubt he will be a big player in this again next year.   You may remember that I was tossing up putting up Time Leader or Quintin's Man as the 3rd pick and the ground being testing put me off Time Leader. That was clearly a mistake and I did briefly wonder if it was going to be a serious error when he led turning for home. Fortunately for us the ground did mean he didn't see it out as well as the first 2 and I do think his jockey might have been right in saying that if the ground had been better he might well have won the race. He is going to be a big player at Aintree where a mistake at the chair put him on the back foot before he made up loads of ground to finish 5th.   The in running comment for D'Jango does not mention that he made any mistakes which is just daft because he made loads and whilst he didn't look like falling they cost him plenty of ground. The data says that he lost 16L on the field average through his jumping and the 2nd and 3rd gained between 12 and 15 lengths through their jumping so that's around a 30L swing. It was some effort for him to nab Billaway on the line for 4th. It backed up that his form has improved massively since going to his new yard. He didn't jump all that well at Warwick when he won so dropping back down in grade shouldn't be an issue if he still jumps poorly. I think he looks an ideal candidate for the 4m race on hunter chase night and the slower pace should mean his jumping isn't under so much pressure. He is a proven stayer as well.   Billaway has run his usual solid race and made a bad error at the last. He will be 13 next year, but he might be back if he's still showing something. I'd imagine Punchestown will be on his agenda this season. The even older Shantou Flyer was the last to finish and the stiff test of stamina probably wasn't ideal for him, but to be beaten 20L at his age was still a huge effort and it was great to see him run well.   Onto the non-finishers and lets start with Ferns Lock. He looked a bit on edge when he left the parade ring and was wearing the red hood. As soon as that came off at the start though he lost the plot and any chance of him staying disappeared. He ran as he usually does and was too free up front, but his jumping also let him down at time as not only did he make some bad mistakes he also occasionally jumped out to his right. I thought he was going to be a strong bet for Aintree, but on the back of this effort I have some doubts. It wont be as big a crowd at Aintree, but you still have to wonder if he is going to go mental again and. His jumping is now a concern and will he empty on the long run-in? He is clearly still mentally immature and he needs to grow up.   Last year's winner Premier Magic never really looked like he was going to get involved in the finish. I found it bizarre that a few in the media felt he was over priced and was a great e/w bet because there was no proof he was in the same form as last year on his pointing form. He might not have stayed in this deeper ground, but I just think he might have regressed at the age of 11.   Quintin's Man was disappointing for me and I was surprised that Darren said the horse was unsuited by the ground as I thought he need it testing. He never got involved anyway and maybe he just isn't up to it. Samcro pulled up as well which was no surprise.   So it was a smaller than usual field, but I think the quality was there and for me it was a classy renewal with the best two horses finishing 1st and 2nd. Ferns Lock is clearly good, but he needs to mature.

Rarely will a race plan out just as you think it will and rarely will than happen in the biggest hunter chase of the season, but pretty much everything I thought would happen at Cheltenham did happen. Obviously it helped I backed her, but I am really pleased that Sine Nomine won as it is a great result for British pointing. I had a interesting discussion with Johnny Dineen on Twitter who reckoned British hunter chases were just full of crocs which quite frankly was a disgraceful thing to say and she helped prove him wrong. She did what she always does and cruised round for most of the way until things got very interesting coming to the last. Having seen the head on I personally think John had every right to go up the inside and it was a bit of a naughty move from Derek. I'm sure he would say it was just race riding, but if John hadn't switched the mare you do wonder what might have happened. The switch just before the fence meant she didn't actually jump it all that well and she didn't look the winner at that stage. She flew up the run-in though and certainly proved any doubts I had about her seeing out the trip wrong because she ate up the ground to catch and pass Its On The Line. She's a top class mare and given her age you have to think she has a good chance of coming back next year and winning again. She hasn't been entered at Aintree and Cheltenham and Stratford have been mentioned as remaining targets for the season.    Its On The Line did travel well for a fair way and it was going down the back for the last time that he started having to be niggled along, but that was hardly a surprise. It was also no surprise that he kept going and going because that is what he does. He ran his race and I think he was just beaten by a better horse on the day who would have won by further if she hadn't had to switch before the last. It was a very good ride, but I saw some say that only he could have got him to run so well, but as I said in the preview he didn't ride him to win at Down Royal and he was hard work that day so I don't buy that. Derek reckons the horse will prefer Aintree, but he fell at Bechers last year and he was quite a long way back at the time. I'm not going to say he can't win, but he's been put in as favourite and it will need a very good ride if he finds himself out the back again for most of the race. The heavier the ground the better his chance I suspect. If he stays hunter chasing then no doubt he will be a big player in this again next year.   You may remember that I was tossing up putting up Time Leader or Quintin's Man as the 3rd pick and the ground being testing put me off Time Leader. That was clearly a mistake and I did briefly wonder if it was going to be a serious error when he led turning for home. Fortunately for us the ground did mean he didn't see it out as well as the first 2 and I do think his jockey might have been right in saying that if the ground had been better he might well have won the race. He is going to be a big player at Aintree where a mistake at the chair put him on the back foot before he made up loads of ground to finish 5th.   The in running comment for D'Jango does not mention that he made any mistakes which is just daft because he made loads and whilst he didn't look like falling they cost him plenty of ground. The data says that he lost 16L on the field average through his jumping and the 2nd and 3rd gained between 12 and 15 lengths through their jumping so that's around a 30L swing. It was some effort for him to nab Billaway on the line for 4th. It backed up that his form has improved massively since going to his new yard. He didn't jump all that well at Warwick when he won so dropping back down in grade shouldn't be an issue if he still jumps poorly. I think he looks an ideal candidate for the 4m race on hunter chase night and the slower pace should mean his jumping isn't under so much pressure. He is a proven stayer as well.   Billaway has run his usual solid race and made a bad error at the last. He will be 13 next year, but he might be back if he's still showing something. I'd imagine Punchestown will be on his agenda this season. The even older Shantou Flyer was the last to finish and the stiff test of stamina probably wasn't ideal for him, but to be beaten 20L at his age was still a huge effort and it was great to see him run well.   Onto the non-finishers and lets start with Ferns Lock. He looked a bit on edge when he left the parade ring and was wearing the red hood. As soon as that came off at the start though he lost the plot and any chance of him staying disappeared. He ran as he usually does and was too free up front, but his jumping also let him down at time as not only did he make some bad mistakes he also occasionally jumped out to his right. I thought he was going to be a strong bet for Aintree, but on the back of this effort I have some doubts. It wont be as big a crowd at Aintree, but you still have to wonder if he is going to go mental again and. His jumping is now a concern and will he empty on the long run-in? He is clearly still mentally immature and he needs to grow up.   Last year's winner Premier Magic never really looked like he was going to get involved in the finish. I found it bizarre that a few in the media felt he was over priced and was a great e/w bet because there was no proof he was in the same form as last year on his pointing form. He might not have stayed in this deeper ground, but I just think he might have regressed at the age of 11.   Quintin's Man was disappointing for me and I was surprised that Darren said the horse was unsuited by the ground as I thought he need it testing. He never got involved anyway and maybe he just isn't up to it. Samcro pulled up as well which was no surprise.   So it was a smaller than usual field, but I think the quality was there and for me it was a classy renewal with the best two horses finishing 1st and 2nd. Ferns Lock is clearly good, but he needs to mature.

Possibly, but I guess you want to give them a chance to sort it out before resorting to further methods and actually the fact it should have been starting again this week probably helped as well.

Amazing result and one I didn't think was going to happen, certainly not as quickly as it has.

That is shocking. I will see what I can do. I had many interactions with Graham in the last year or so of his life and the fact that this has been done by people he trusted to set it up in his honour is disgraceful 

I have got Tony Calvin to mention it in the Betfair podcast today.

Amazing result and one I didn't think was going to happen, certainly not as quickly as it has.

I have got Tony Calvin to mention it in the Betfair podcast today.

Amazing result and one I didn't think was going to happen, certainly not as quickly as it has.

Amazing result and one I didn't think was going to happen, certainly not as quickly as it has.

Some brief thoughts for today.   Eastleigh v Rochdale I think we were a bit unlucky with Woking on Tuesday night and I am happy to take Rochdale on again with Eastleigh who I think can get back to winning ways here.   York v Aldershot As we know Aldershot aren't always trustworthy away from home, but they are better than York who were hammered 5-1 on Tuesday night at Altrincham. Their fans already want the new manager to go and hopefully it is an away win.   Darlington v Peterborough Sports Happy to go with Darlington again at a shade of odds on as they continue to look a much better side than their league position suggests.   Kings Lynn v Rushall Olympic I'm surprised the home side aren't odds on here to be honest and they rate a confident selection.   Dartford v Maidstone A local derby which always adds a hint of caution, but Dartford continue to be in dreadful form and Maidstone are much better than them. They should be odds on for me.   Hemel Hempstead v Hampton & Richmond Hemel have got Dartford's old manager in, but they continue to be poor and Hampton have found their form again.   Prices from 9am Saturday   Eastleigh 1pt @ 8/5 with SKybet and BetVictor (take up to 5/4) Aldershot 1pt @ 13/10 with most bookies (take up to 11/10) Darlington 2pts @ 10/11 with wiyth most bookies (take up to 4/5) Kings Lynn 4pts @ 13/10 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor (take up to 5/6)  Maidstone 2.5pts @ 23/20 with Bet365, Betfred, Skybet and BetVictor (take up to 10/11) Hampton & Richmond 2pts @ 11/8 with most bookies (take up to 11/10)

I have got Tony Calvin to mention it in the Betfair podcast today.

I have got Tony Calvin to mention it in the Betfair podcast today.

That is shocking. I will see what I can do. I had many interactions with Graham in the last year or so of his life and the fact that this has been done by people he trusted to set it up in his honour is disgraceful 

That is shocking. I will see what I can do. I had many interactions with Graham in the last year or so of his life and the fact that this has been done by people he trusted to set it up in his honour is disgraceful 

V. nice.
 

That is shocking. I will see what I can do. I had many interactions with Graham in the last year or so of his life and the fact that this has been done by people he trusted to set it up in his honour is disgraceful 

A decent finish to the festival with Majborough winning at 7/1
Total profit to send to the charity £ 473.83, more than double last years £233.66

Some brief thoughts for today.   Eastleigh v Rochdale I think we were a bit unlucky with Woking on Tuesday night and I am happy to take Rochdale on again with Eastleigh who I think can get back to winning ways here.   York v Aldershot As we know Aldershot aren't always trustworthy away from home, but they are better than York who were hammered 5-1 on Tuesday night at Altrincham. Their fans already want the new manager to go and hopefully it is an away win.   Darlington v Peterborough Sports Happy to go with Darlington again at a shade of odds on as they continue to look a much better side than their league position suggests.   Kings Lynn v Rushall Olympic I'm surprised the home side aren't odds on here to be honest and they rate a confident selection.   Dartford v Maidstone A local derby which always adds a hint of caution, but Dartford continue to be in dreadful form and Maidstone are much better than them. They should be odds on for me.   Hemel Hempstead v Hampton & Richmond Hemel have got Dartford's old manager in, but they continue to be poor and Hampton have found their form again.   Prices from 9am Saturday   Eastleigh 1pt @ 8/5 with SKybet and BetVictor (take up to 5/4) Aldershot 1pt @ 13/10 with most bookies (take up to 11/10) Darlington 2pts @ 10/11 with wiyth most bookies (take up to 4/5) Kings Lynn 4pts @ 13/10 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor (take up to 5/6)  Maidstone 2.5pts @ 23/20 with Bet365, Betfred, Skybet and BetVictor (take up to 10/11) Hampton & Richmond 2pts @ 11/8 with most bookies (take up to 11/10)

Some brief thoughts for today.   Eastleigh v Rochdale I think we were a bit unlucky with Woking on Tuesday night and I am happy to take Rochdale on again with Eastleigh who I think can get back to winning ways here.   York v Aldershot As we know Aldershot aren't always trustworthy away from home, but they are better than York who were hammered 5-1 on Tuesday night at Altrincham. Their fans already want the new manager to go and hopefully it is an away win.   Darlington v Peterborough Sports Happy to go with Darlington again at a shade of odds on as they continue to look a much better side than their league position suggests.   Kings Lynn v Rushall Olympic I'm surprised the home side aren't odds on here to be honest and they rate a confident selection.   Dartford v Maidstone A local derby which always adds a hint of caution, but Dartford continue to be in dreadful form and Maidstone are much better than them. They should be odds on for me.   Hemel Hempstead v Hampton & Richmond Hemel have got Dartford's old manager in, but they continue to be poor and Hampton have found their form again.   Prices from 9am Saturday   Eastleigh 1pt @ 8/5 with SKybet and BetVictor (take up to 5/4) Aldershot 1pt @ 13/10 with most bookies (take up to 11/10) Darlington 2pts @ 10/11 with wiyth most bookies (take up to 4/5) Kings Lynn 4pts @ 13/10 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor (take up to 5/6)  Maidstone 2.5pts @ 23/20 with Bet365, Betfred, Skybet and BetVictor (take up to 10/11) Hampton & Richmond 2pts @ 11/8 with most bookies (take up to 11/10)

Some brief thoughts for today.   Eastleigh v Rochdale I think we were a bit unlucky with Woking on Tuesday night and I am happy to take Rochdale on again with Eastleigh who I think can get back to winning ways here.   York v Aldershot As we know Aldershot aren't always trustworthy away from home, but they are better than York who were hammered 5-1 on Tuesday night at Altrincham. Their fans already want the new manager to go and hopefully it is an away win.   Darlington v Peterborough Sports Happy to go with Darlington again at a shade of odds on as they continue to look a much better side than their league position suggests.   Kings Lynn v Rushall Olympic I'm surprised the home side aren't odds on here to be honest and they rate a confident selection.   Dartford v Maidstone A local derby which always adds a hint of caution, but Dartford continue to be in dreadful form and Maidstone are much better than them. They should be odds on for me.   Hemel Hempstead v Hampton & Richmond Hemel have got Dartford's old manager in, but they continue to be poor and Hampton have found their form again.   Prices from 9am Saturday   Eastleigh 1pt @ 8/5 with SKybet and BetVictor (take up to 5/4) Aldershot 1pt @ 13/10 with most bookies (take up to 11/10) Darlington 2pts @ 10/11 with wiyth most bookies (take up to 4/5) Kings Lynn 4pts @ 13/10 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor (take up to 5/6)  Maidstone 2.5pts @ 23/20 with Bet365, Betfred, Skybet and BetVictor (take up to 10/11) Hampton & Richmond 2pts @ 11/8 with most bookies (take up to 11/10)

Some brief thoughts for today.   Eastleigh v Rochdale I think we were a bit unlucky with Woking on Tuesday night and I am happy to take Rochdale on again with Eastleigh who I think can get back to winning ways here.   York v Aldershot As we know Aldershot aren't always trustworthy away from home, but they are better than York who were hammered 5-1 on Tuesday night at Altrincham. Their fans already want the new manager to go and hopefully it is an away win.   Darlington v Peterborough Sports Happy to go with Darlington again at a shade of odds on as they continue to look a much better side than their league position suggests.   Kings Lynn v Rushall Olympic I'm surprised the home side aren't odds on here to be honest and they rate a confident selection.   Dartford v Maidstone A local derby which always adds a hint of caution, but Dartford continue to be in dreadful form and Maidstone are much better than them. They should be odds on for me.   Hemel Hempstead v Hampton & Richmond Hemel have got Dartford's old manager in, but they continue to be poor and Hampton have found their form again.   Prices from 9am Saturday   Eastleigh 1pt @ 8/5 with SKybet and BetVictor (take up to 5/4) Aldershot 1pt @ 13/10 with most bookies (take up to 11/10) Darlington 2pts @ 10/11 with wiyth most bookies (take up to 4/5) Kings Lynn 4pts @ 13/10 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor (take up to 5/6)  Maidstone 2.5pts @ 23/20 with Bet365, Betfred, Skybet and BetVictor (take up to 10/11) Hampton & Richmond 2pts @ 11/8 with most bookies (take up to 11/10)

Some brief thoughts for today.   Eastleigh v Rochdale I think we were a bit unlucky with Woking on Tuesday night and I am happy to take Rochdale on again with Eastleigh who I think can get back to winning ways here.   York v Aldershot As we know Aldershot aren't always trustworthy away from home, but they are better than York who were hammered 5-1 on Tuesday night at Altrincham. Their fans already want the new manager to go and hopefully it is an away win.   Darlington v Peterborough Sports Happy to go with Darlington again at a shade of odds on as they continue to look a much better side than their league position suggests.   Kings Lynn v Rushall Olympic I'm surprised the home side aren't odds on here to be honest and they rate a confident selection.   Dartford v Maidstone A local derby which always adds a hint of caution, but Dartford continue to be in dreadful form and Maidstone are much better than them. They should be odds on for me.   Hemel Hempstead v Hampton & Richmond Hemel have got Dartford's old manager in, but they continue to be poor and Hampton have found their form again.   Prices from 9am Saturday   Eastleigh 1pt @ 8/5 with SKybet and BetVictor (take up to 5/4) Aldershot 1pt @ 13/10 with most bookies (take up to 11/10) Darlington 2pts @ 10/11 with wiyth most bookies (take up to 4/5) Kings Lynn 4pts @ 13/10 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor (take up to 5/6)  Maidstone 2.5pts @ 23/20 with Bet365, Betfred, Skybet and BetVictor (take up to 10/11) Hampton & Richmond 2pts @ 11/8 with most bookies (take up to 11/10)

Here is my full in-depth preview for the race on Friday. A smaller field than usual this year, but class wise I think it is up to scratch and it promises to be a good renewal. As ever hopefully I can point you in the way of the winner, but the main reason for the preview is that it provides you with the most in-depth preview on the race you will find and it provides you with the information to also come up with your own mind.    Billaway - You can't knock his record in the race having finished 2nd, 2nd, 1st and then fell at the 10th in the last 4 renewals. Given the rest of his form last season you have to think he would have been involved in the finish if he had got round. His jumping hasn't always been great though and that did finally tell last year and he also unseated at Punchestown. He bounced back from that to beat Vaucelet to win a decent pot at Downpatrick in May. He made his seasonal return later than usual this season and he has a terrible first time out record so I wasn't surprised to see him well behind in 3rd as they turned for home at Naas, but then as Its On The Line idled he railed strongly and it was no surprise that he traded very short in running as he looked like he was going to win. In the end Its On The Line picked up when he got to him and won by a head, but it was still a very good run. I just wonder that given he was having his prep later than usual if he was further forward than he usually is 1st up. I'm not sure he can win it again, but given his record in the race and the fact he ran so well last time suggests to me that if he gets round he isn't going to be far away at the finish.   D'Jango - Was one of the Judith Wilson owned horses that David Pipe trained who used to run what seemed like every week and he was rated just 100 over fences when picked up by new connections. Not surprisingly he went off a massive price for the opening hunter chase of the season, but he massively outran his odds when finishing a length 2nd to the very promising mare Regatta De Blanc. That horse has franked the form since as has the 3rd Bennys King and Shantou Flyer was behind in 5th. He then stayed on very strongly at Warwick to overhaul Tea Clipper after the last and they had pulled well clear of the others. He was possibly a little disappointing in the Walrus at Haydock last time when a fairly well beaten 4th behind Spyglass Hill, but it was really testing ground that day and I'm not sure he was totally in love with it. The handicapper has put him up 29lbs since he went hunter chasing and I think that is fair enough given the form he has shown. We know he stays well and the ground is clearly going to better than Haydock so whilst I doubt he will win, I think he can run well and finish in the top half.   Ferns Lock - There were 3 horses I saw last season who really impressed me and Ferns Lock was one of them. His wins at Fairyhouse where he beat Its On The Line and at Thurles where he beat Billaway were hugely impressive. Lots wanted him to go to Cheltenham on the back of that, but I thought they were right to give him more time as he needed more experience. He went to Gowran Park instead and although he won hard held his jumping wasn't quite as good as it had been and backed up my thinking that he needed another year. He was then surprisingly beaten at Fairyhouse when Annamix picked up the pieces after Ferns Lock and Billaway got racing from a fair way out. That run though did make me think that maybe his stamina wasn't quite what he needed to be to win this race. This season he returned at Dromahane and beat a useful field with ease. He then went to Down Royal and looked like he was going to win again having seen off the challenge of Ramillies, but he had no response to the fast finishing Its On The Line who beat him by 0.5L. That performance really set off the alarm bells about his stamina for 3m2f around Cheltenham. He bounced back to winning ways by beating a stablemate of Its On The Line with ease at Thurles. What was interesting though was that Ruby Walsh said after the race that he looks an Aintree horse not a Cheltenham horse and I completely agree with him. Even his trainer has come out and said he thinks he might be more of an Aintree horse. If he goes to Aintree I think he will be very hard to beat. On the whole he jumps well and he enjoys being out in front, but although he's not overly keen he is free running and I think at this stage of his career he just does a bit too much to win this race. The one thing in his favour on that front though is the smaller field than usual as he might get away with a bit of a freebie up front which wouldn't have been the case with a full field. My thinking is there is a strong chance of him being in front at the last, but that he will having nothing for the run-in and at least something will outstay him. The other thing to note is he is unlikely to get left alone on the front end and as we saw at Fairyhouse that isn't going to help him either. I suspect he is the best horse in the race ability wise and that he's better than a hunter chaser and if he did happen to stay he wins, but I don't think he will stay so am happy to take him on.   From The Heart - Has shown form that suggests he could win a hunter chase at some point, but nothing in his form suggests he can get anywhere near to winning this and his massive price reflects his chances.   Its On The Line - The horse I have thought would be the winner since he beat Ferns Lock at Down Royal on Boxing Day. Was a fast finishing 2nd to Premier Magic last year when having the cheekpieces on for the first time. Jumping 2 out you wouldn't have given him any hope of reaching the frame as he was looking pretty laboured and then all of a sudden late on his flying home and had clearly got going too late. He then fell at Aintree, but pretty much made all to win at Punchestown. He did race lazily that night, but what I liked was he kept finding for Derek and whilst Vaucelet had travelled better, he just couldn't get past him and a mistake at the last made no difference to the result for me. It was a bit of a surprise to see him run again in another point a couple of weeks later and finished 2nd to Rocky's Howya and both horses had long succesful seasons. This season he's 3/3. He won a point in November and then went to Down Royal when outstaying Its On The Line. Over 2f further I just don't see how the form can be reversed. We know Its On The Line is all about stamina and even if he gets outpaced we know he's highly likely to be finishing best of all. Onto that dramatic race at Naas where he first of all went toe to toe with Ramillies and once he saw him off at the last he then started to idle and Billaway came from nowhere looking like he was going to go straight pass him, but as soon as he got to Its On The Line he picked up again and he was a head in front at the line. For a horse to do that having gone hard in testing ground just shows he clearly had plenty left and that when it matters he will fight. I doubt he is going to be left in front here, but to be fair he has also shown he is hard to pass once he gets in front anyway even if he is. The trainer has said he will be putting the cheekpieces back on so that should bring about a little bit more as well. It could be argued that why should he beat Premier Magic based on last year's run, but I think he's improved and I doubt Premier Magic has given he is now 11. Clearly 7yos don't have a good recent record in the race, but he has a different profile to most good ones who have tired as we know he will stay and that he has the class to win. I think a fair few younger horses who have tried just haven't stayed which isn't a concern with him. The softer the ground the better as it will test turn it into more of a test, but it was decent ground when he won at Punchestown so it isn't crucial. JP has no doubt paid a few quid for him last week and I suspect he might well have next years Grand National in mind as much as this contest. He is the one they all have to beat.   Premier Magic - I was put off his chances for this race last year because of the way he ran in the race in 2022. He looked like he hated every second of it before pulling up and knowing that Brad wanted to run Highway Jewel instead it put me off backing him despite thinking he had the ability to run well. In 2022 he was on the inside, so Brad decided to ride him on the outside and it worked a treat. He was always going well and took the lead at 2 out before always holding the fast finishing Its On The Line. Somehow he recorded a higher RPR when winning on hunter chase night on his next start, but he beat a non stayer in Rebel Dawn Rising and the rest of the field were a poor bunch in the context of this race. He definitely achieved more winning this. This season he has won both his starts at Sheriff Hutton and Brocklesby Park. The issue I have though is neither of those efforts told us anything apart from he has four legs still. The 2nd and 3rd at Sheriff Hutton have both been stuffed in hunter chases recently and he was 1/10 at Brocklesby. There was certainly more depth to his wins prior to last year's race. I'm not saying for a second that he couldn't be another duel winner, but you are guessing how much ability he still retains because the two runs have told us nothing. He's now 11 and my thinking is that Its On The Line has improved so he will have to have done as well. He seems about the right price at this stage. The cheekpieces which he wore for both Cheltenham wins last season and have been missing this season go back on here.   Quintin's Man - We know the course and distance will hold no fears for him as he bolted up to win the Intermediate Final on hunter chase night last year. You can pick holes in that form, but it was still an impressive performance. He then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup and he hated the experience and never really looked happy at any stage. He started off the season with a couple of 3rds which didn't look overly hopeful, although the second of them at Chipley Park has worked out well. He certainly stepped up on those efforts at Wincanton when beaten a useful field in taking style. Lalor was 2nd there and Paul Nicholls tried to get him qualified for this, but he was only 4th at Taunton. I wouldn't have that effort knock the form because the race would have come soon enough and it was a hot race. Quintin's Man went to Haydock for the Walrus and whilst the trip was on the short side for him my thinking was the bottomless ground would make it such a test of stamina that it would be ideal for him. He did get himself outpaced though in the home straight, but I still thought he was going to win jumping the last, but I just wonder if the effort of getting to the 1st and 2nd paid on the run-in and he ended up in 3rd. I think he needs soft ground to be seen at his best and we know he stays well so he wouldn't be the worst outsider in the race.   Ramillies - Surprised that he is even running in this given the way he ran at Gowran Park on Saturday. He was legless after the last behind Its On The Line before that and I struggle to see him staying.   Samcro - Good old Samcro finally gets his chance to run in this race as he didn't qualify for hunter chases in the UK last year. A duel Festival winner and no doubt the horse that people will get excited about because on his old form he's easily the best horse in the race. He got up to a mark of 160 over fences and 163 over hurdles and there will be those out there who will presume that means he should win this. If he was still capable of running to anywhere near those marks though he wouldn't be hunter chasing. One day no doubt a horse with his sort of profile will win the race again, but horses like him just don't win this race anymore. If he had been able to run in teh race last year I'd have given him more of a chance as he won 3 points by 30L twice and 32L the other time. This season he looks to have gone backwards as he won by just 2.5L first time up, albeit snugly, and then last month he was only 3rd at Belharbour behind Lifetime Ambition. I thought he looked quite laboured in the finish that day and whilst the winner is apparently going to be aimed at Aintree it didn't look a performance of a horse who was going to be good enough to win this. My other concern is how he will fare going back under rules because he had really lost his way and he always had his quirks anyway. 9 of the last 10 winners of this have had to run to an RPR of 141 to win and I have big doubts about him running to that level anymore. He's a single figure price, but he should be around 25/1 for me. Also as much as he did win twice at The Festival he was also pulled up in the Ryanair the last time he ran here.   Shantou Flyer - Has an incredible record at Cheltenham having won twice, finished 2nd 5 times and 3rd 3 times in his 13 starts round here. His record at the Festival reads fell in the National Hunt Chase in 2016, 2nd beaten a neck in the Ultima of 2018, 2nd in the 2019 Foxhunter, 3rd in the 2020 Foxhunter, 3rd in the 2021 Kim Muir and 3rd in last years race 3L behind Premier Magic. That is some record and it would be no surprise if he was to run a huge race yet again. He was in really good form last season as he won hunter chases in really good style at Exeter and Stratford and the 2nd in the 4m race on hunter chase night was good because he just doesn't stay that far (had been 5th the year before in that contest). This season he won on his return at Larkhill and then was 5th in the opening hunter chase of the season behind Regatta De Blanc when he tried to keep up with Bennys King at the head of the race and they both went too quick. That trip would have been short enough in a race of that quality as well. He had his prep at Charlton Horethorne on Sunday where he actually won 2 races because he walked over in the hunt race before winning the Mixed Open beating Singapore Saga by a comfortable 3L. It would be some effort for him to finally win at the Cheltenham Festival at the age of 14, but some bookies will be offering extra places (probably down to 8 at least) and he would look a fair e/w bet taking the lower odds and extra places. To be honest a top 4 finish at normal odds might well show a return given his record at the meeting and Cheltenham overall.   Time Leader -  Joe O'Shea has had a knack of improving horses by stones over the years and this was another one. When he started hunter chasing he was rated 90 and he is now up to 128 and even that mark might under estimate him. He won twice at Leicester and Stratford last year, before surprisingly running just 6 days later in the mud at Carlisle over 3m which looked very unsuitable for him and so it proved as he pulled up. He then ran a massive race in the Aintree Foxhunters when staying on well to finish 5th 6.25L behind Famous Clermont. He made a bad mistake at the Chair that day and without it he would have gone closer. After that he won at Kelso and at Cartmel where he beat Gaboriot by 12L over just over 3m1f. That gives a hint that he might be capable of staying the trip here and whilst the 2nd as improved since it still gives a bit of value to the form given he has won 3 times this season. You will notice that Hannah Roach now trains him, but don't be fooled as Joe is very much still involved and he made a winning return before getting stuck in the mud at Chaddesley Corbett in December. It was no surprise he bounced back at Hereford in January and he won with loads in hand. The better the ground the better his chance because he doesn't seem to handle it testing and it wouldn't help his stamina either. If it is no worse than good to soft though it wouldn't surprise me if he went close, but the weather suggests that is unlikely to happen now.   Sine Nomine - I have been slow to warm to her because you have always been able to pick all sorts of holes in her rules form, but after her win at Wetherby I think it is just a case of her being a very good horse. She made her rules debut in the Intermediate Final on hunter chase night a couple of years ago and she jumped terribly although was still able to finish 3rd albeit a well beaten one. Last season she had 3 point starts before going to Stratford where she was foot perfect and beat Kaproyale easily. Now I wondered if she was the only one who liked the ground (the favourite didn't) and Kaproyale is better over shorter so I my thinking was she was the only one to have conditions to suit. She then went back to hunter chase night here and ran in the mares race and was beaten by Miss Seagreen. She travelled really well and looked the winner for a long way, but was just over hauled late on. She then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup which she won again after traveling strongly. The problem is the form isn't very strong with the 2nd having been stuffed in handicaps off marks in the low 100s since. First time out this season she was beaten at Alnwick in the mud by Wagner who whilst he has been a winning machine this season wouldn't be a fancy in this so again I wasn't overly strong on her going into Wetherby. On the face of it you could say she has beaten a non stayer in Bennys King, a horse who has needed his first two runs in Windsor Avenue and the favourite Fairly Famous hated the ground so again you can pick holes in the form. However she's travelled all over Bennys King for most of the home straight and therefore if the race had been over say 2m6f Sine Nomine still would have won. Given Bennys King form this season has been exceptional I think this effort is probably the best run from a British trained horse this season. I think she is at her best with a bit of cut in the ground and she is such a strong traveller whatever the conditions. There are two minor worries I have though. First of all her two worse runs under rules have both come at Cheltenham but the first was down to inexperience and I think she will be better off in a bigger field and truly run race which she didn't get last May. Secondly there has to be a small concern about her seeing out the trip given that defeat her last year. I know she won over further at Stratford, but it was a slowly run race and not a test at all. Secret Investor was 22 seconds quicker whilst carrying 7lbs more which shows how slow it was run. Maybe she might be one of these younger horses how doesn't quite see it out, but difference is she is a double figure price and she should be shorter.   Verdict - So we are going to have the smallest field for some time and I think the real reason for that is the lack of total no hopers in the race. As much as I am happy to take certain horses on, you can only say that From The Heart doesn't have any chance of winning the race. If you haven't backed Its On The Line yet I do think there is some juice in the price. He's the most likely winner for me and given the weather forecast it does look like its going to be on the softer side which isn't going to help Ferns Lock stamina. What will help him though is the smaller field as he might just get an easier time on the front end than I originally thought before the 6 day decs.    Sine Nomine is clear 2nd choice for me and I am happy to back her now. If there are only 13 runners then we might not see many, if any, bookies go 4 places and I think her price might come in. I think she has the best British form this season coming into the race as that Wetherby run was a top class effort. Those two slight concerns I mention in her profile are more than factored into the price for me and I think she should be a single figure price.   If Premier Magic is in the same form as last year then clearly he is going to go close, but it is impossible to know if he is or not based on his two point runs this season and he's the right sort of price at the moment. Billaway's record in the race means he must be respected and again looks the right sort of price. I couldn't put anyone off backing either though if you fancy them.   The final bet to be added is Quintin's Man. Conditions are certainly going to be in his favour and he is an out and out stayer so I certainly want him on side. If it had dried out more then I would have put Time Leader up, but conditions don't look like being ideal for him and that will put an extra test on his stamina. Bet365 have a 6 place market and couldn't put anyone off throwing a few quid at Shantou Flyer in that market given his record at Cheltenham.   Bets given on Monday Its On The Line 3pts @ 5/2 with Bet365 (take up to 15/8) Sine Nomine 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 10/1)   Bet added on Thursday Quintin's Man 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 16/1)

Well done with picking the winner at 16/1 and the second