Darran

I am not sure what to make of the Wetherby race yesterday. What I will start off by saying is that it was a big step up from Minella Rocco from what he did at Warwick and clearly he now deserves to go to Cheltenham and he is now into 6 for the Foxhunter although Hazel Hill still heads the market at is a best of 11/2. This is the first time that Hazel Hill has had to make the running and the only other time he was beaten was in a 3 runner point so small field might not be ideal for him especially when up against a good horse like Minella Rocco or Garde Ville who beat him in the point. Obviously his jumping was a big issue as he did a Creevytennant and jumped out to the right at most of his fences and in some cases massively so. It is something he has done before, he did it at Cheltenham when he won at May although it wasn't as bad as this. Clearly if he did the same in the Foxhunter he won't be winning. Maybe in a bigger field it will keep him straighter. Alex got off and said there was something wrong with him so perhaps something will come to light as very often it can be that a horse is feeling something if they jump like that. He clearly lost many lengths during the race and was more than he was beaten by, but Minella Rocco did run out a cosy enough winner. It was a very clever ride from Derek, as you would expect, as he went looking for the better ground out wide. Impossible to know how big a difference that made, but clearly Derek thought it was worth doing. 
We are left with more questions than answers though. If Hazel Hill does have an issue then Minella Rocco hasn't achieved as much as it looks like he has. Will Minella Rocco actually go and perform back in a big field in a race that is likely to be run at a strong pace? That would be my main concern about him myself. If Hazel Hill is fine then will he jump better getting a lead and in a big field as he did in the race last year? My guess is that he will, but you couldn't be confident at the same time. Does this mean that Minella Rocco will be his ride over Stand Up And Fight? If so then that will be a big plus for Minella Rocco.
I am leaning towards thinking this form isn't going to be the most trustworthy and that if they both line up at Cheltenham we might well see it reversed. Clearly the fact that Hazel Hill is still favourite or joint favourite suggests the odds compilers see it that way as well. Fair to say though that Minella Rocco is a much bigger player than I thought he would be prior to yesterday.
Virak is in the betting with 4 bookies and is as short as 16/1 after his win at Wincanton. I just think he beat a non stayer though and he didn't do a great deal when he ran in this race a couple of years ago. Earth Leader is still in the betting with some bookies, but surely won't be going anywhere near this race.
Art Mauresque was well beaten in a point this afternoon at 1/3 suggesting I was right to be concerned about him staying the trip. I would imagine they might look towards the Aintree version now.
On Saturday last season's John Corbet winner Law Of Gold won at Horseheath on his seasonal return. It was a pleasing enough return and he is clearly progressive, but I still think at this stage he has a fair bit to find to get really competitive in this. The Stratford win is his only start under rules so far which would also be a concern.
Bob And Co was declared at Hereford but that was called off and then surprisingly he didn't got to Wincanton. He is entered at Bangor on Friday.
Billaway has been backed since the last update and he is now in single figures after that win at Naas. My doubts about how trustworthy that form is still stands, but when you look at the others near the top of the market you have to say he deserves to be around the price he is based on that win.
At this stage I am happy with my Caid du Berlais bet and he is still 14/1 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfred so the price is still there if you have yet to get involved.

I agree just two winners so far this season is poor. 4 seasons ago it took me 11 races to back a winner and I ended that season over 100 points up which is the best season I have ever had. The first half of last season was the best run I have ever had and it was never going to be possible to keep that up long term. From memory once that good run had ended I think I only made a small profit for the rest of the season. I have always made a profit but will never guarantee one. Maybe I am due a bad one, but I remain confident come the end of May I will be showing a profit. It is always worse when the bad run happens at the start of a season as it means you are in minus figures and that is always hard for a tipster mentally. 

Just the 4 runners at Doncaster tomorrow and none of them can qualify for Cheltenham. Band Of Blood showed little at Musselburgh earlier in the month so I don't fancy him. Just A Par was 2nd at Bangor in a point last month, but he was well beaten and it suggested he is nowhere near a 135 horse at the moment. He might have needed the run, but at 13 chances are he is just firmly on the downgrade. So I think the race is between the two horses who finished 3rd and 4th at Taunton in the first hunter chase of the season.
Captain Cattistock 4/7 favourite for is at the time of writing and he finished a couple of lengths behind Mustmeetalday at Taunton. He was a bit disappointing for me and as much as he might have got caught out by the sharpness of the track he also didn't jump great at times either. After two good runs in handicaps at Fontwell and Chepstow it was a drop in form and clearly qualification for Cheltenham took a back step after it. Back up in trip round here should suit better and if he can get back to the levels he showed earlier in the season he ought to win.
I thought Mustmeetaladay was eye-catching at Taunton as he stayed on to great affect to nearly finish 2nd. A stiffer test of stamina should suit him as well, but he ran terribly at Wincanton which was disappointing. He does have an in and out look to his form though so maybe we shouldn't be surprised he put in a lesser performance that day. If he runs like that he hasn't got a hope, but given he beat Captain Cattistock fair and square at Taunton it is hard to see why he should be 9/2. That price more than factors in the fact he is inconsistent and there just shouldn't be the big difference in price for me. So hopefully he will be on a going day as he has to be the bet at the odds.
Mustmeetaladay 1pt @ 9/2 with Betfair, Paddy Power, BetVictor and Betfred 

Just the 4 runners at Doncaster tomorrow and none of them can qualify for Cheltenham. Band Of Blood showed little at Musselburgh earlier in the month so I don't fancy him. Just A Par was 2nd at Bangor in a point last month, but he was well beaten and it suggested he is nowhere near a 135 horse at the moment. He might have needed the run, but at 13 chances are he is just firmly on the downgrade. So I think the race is between the two horses who finished 3rd and 4th at Taunton in the first hunter chase of the season.
Captain Cattistock 4/7 favourite for is at the time of writing and he finished a couple of lengths behind Mustmeetalday at Taunton. He was a bit disappointing for me and as much as he might have got caught out by the sharpness of the track he also didn't jump great at times either. After two good runs in handicaps at Fontwell and Chepstow it was a drop in form and clearly qualification for Cheltenham took a back step after it. Back up in trip round here should suit better and if he can get back to the levels he showed earlier in the season he ought to win.
I thought Mustmeetaladay was eye-catching at Taunton as he stayed on to great affect to nearly finish 2nd. A stiffer test of stamina should suit him as well, but he ran terribly at Wincanton which was disappointing. He does have an in and out look to his form though so maybe we shouldn't be surprised he put in a lesser performance that day. If he runs like that he hasn't got a hope, but given he beat Captain Cattistock fair and square at Taunton it is hard to see why he should be 9/2. That price more than factors in the fact he is inconsistent and there just shouldn't be the big difference in price for me. So hopefully he will be on a going day as he has to be the bet at the odds.
Mustmeetaladay 1pt @ 9/2 with Betfair, Paddy Power, BetVictor and Betfred 

Just the 4 runners at Doncaster tomorrow and none of them can qualify for Cheltenham. Band Of Blood showed little at Musselburgh earlier in the month so I don't fancy him. Just A Par was 2nd at Bangor in a point last month, but he was well beaten and it suggested he is nowhere near a 135 horse at the moment. He might have needed the run, but at 13 chances are he is just firmly on the downgrade. So I think the race is between the two horses who finished 3rd and 4th at Taunton in the first hunter chase of the season.
Captain Cattistock 4/7 favourite for is at the time of writing and he finished a couple of lengths behind Mustmeetalday at Taunton. He was a bit disappointing for me and as much as he might have got caught out by the sharpness of the track he also didn't jump great at times either. After two good runs in handicaps at Fontwell and Chepstow it was a drop in form and clearly qualification for Cheltenham took a back step after it. Back up in trip round here should suit better and if he can get back to the levels he showed earlier in the season he ought to win.
I thought Mustmeetaladay was eye-catching at Taunton as he stayed on to great affect to nearly finish 2nd. A stiffer test of stamina should suit him as well, but he ran terribly at Wincanton which was disappointing. He does have an in and out look to his form though so maybe we shouldn't be surprised he put in a lesser performance that day. If he runs like that he hasn't got a hope, but given he beat Captain Cattistock fair and square at Taunton it is hard to see why he should be 9/2. That price more than factors in the fact he is inconsistent and there just shouldn't be the big difference in price for me. So hopefully he will be on a going day as he has to be the bet at the odds.
Mustmeetaladay 1pt @ 9/2 with Betfair, Paddy Power, BetVictor and Betfred 

I must admit I didn't think Haydock would go ahead and with the wind due to be at its strongest this afternoon I do wonder if the Walrus will still be run, but at this stage racing goes ahead.
Only 4 runners this year, but it is still a classy renewal with the front 3 in the betting all top horses. Acala was put in as favourite when betting started, but he has been a massive drifter as Wishing And Hoping has been well backed. Given he jumped out to his left at Taunton going this way round should help Wishing And Hoping. He should guarantee a decent pace given he is a front runner and that could be the best place to be in this ground although he wont get much shelter from the wind depending on what direction it is going. The Taunton form hasn't really been tested yet as the 3rd home disappointed next time, but is a very in and out horse anyway.
There is little doubt in my mind that Acala would have won at Ludlow had he stood up. That race has taken some big knocks form wise though, but it isn't the biggest surprise given they went a very slow gallop. As they wanted to get him qualified for Cheltenham I would imagine they wanted him to have as easy a race as possible so I think chances are he is better than the form suggests. The Racing Post Spotlight writer has doubts he will handle heavy ground, but he has won on heavy ground so I am not sure why he has said that. The bigger question is if he wants to go this far in this ground which I would have my doubts about.
The Dellercheckout impressed me at Ludlow as he won very easy and was value for a bigger margin. He stays well based on his 3 wins this season as he has been doing his best work at the finish which could be crucial here. This is stronger than the Ludlow race and Haymount didn't do much for the form of his win the time before yesterday, but then I don't think Fakenham suited Haymount as he would have wanted more of a stamina test.
Anyone of the 3 wouldn't surprise if they won. I would have Wishing And Hoping as favourite so it is no surprise the market has made him favourite after the opening show. I think he is the right sort of price now and as much as being out in front would usually be an advantage if there is a head wind either down the back or the home straight then out in front might not be the place to be. Acala certainly has a chance as well although I am not sure he wants a slug fest so I am going to go for The Dellercheckout. I was impressed by his Ludlow win and he looks a very progressive horse. He would have to step up a bit on that effort on paper, but as I say I think he was value for bigger than the winning margin. He stays well will be held up to make his challenge late. At 100/30 I think he rates the best value in the race.
The Dellercheckout 1pt @ 100/30 with William Hill

I must admit I didn't think Haydock would go ahead and with the wind due to be at its strongest this afternoon I do wonder if the Walrus will still be run, but at this stage racing goes ahead.
Only 4 runners this year, but it is still a classy renewal with the front 3 in the betting all top horses. Acala was put in as favourite when betting started, but he has been a massive drifter as Wishing And Hoping has been well backed. Given he jumped out to his left at Taunton going this way round should help Wishing And Hoping. He should guarantee a decent pace given he is a front runner and that could be the best place to be in this ground although he wont get much shelter from the wind depending on what direction it is going. The Taunton form hasn't really been tested yet as the 3rd home disappointed next time, but is a very in and out horse anyway.
There is little doubt in my mind that Acala would have won at Ludlow had he stood up. That race has taken some big knocks form wise though, but it isn't the biggest surprise given they went a very slow gallop. As they wanted to get him qualified for Cheltenham I would imagine they wanted him to have as easy a race as possible so I think chances are he is better than the form suggests. The Racing Post Spotlight writer has doubts he will handle heavy ground, but he has won on heavy ground so I am not sure why he has said that. The bigger question is if he wants to go this far in this ground which I would have my doubts about.
The Dellercheckout impressed me at Ludlow as he won very easy and was value for a bigger margin. He stays well based on his 3 wins this season as he has been doing his best work at the finish which could be crucial here. This is stronger than the Ludlow race and Haymount didn't do much for the form of his win the time before yesterday, but then I don't think Fakenham suited Haymount as he would have wanted more of a stamina test.
Anyone of the 3 wouldn't surprise if they won. I would have Wishing And Hoping as favourite so it is no surprise the market has made him favourite after the opening show. I think he is the right sort of price now and as much as being out in front would usually be an advantage if there is a head wind either down the back or the home straight then out in front might not be the place to be. Acala certainly has a chance as well although I am not sure he wants a slug fest so I am going to go for The Dellercheckout. I was impressed by his Ludlow win and he looks a very progressive horse. He would have to step up a bit on that effort on paper, but as I say I think he was value for bigger than the winning margin. He stays well will be held up to make his challenge late. At 100/30 I think he rates the best value in the race.
The Dellercheckout 1pt @ 100/30 with William Hill

I must admit I didn't think Haydock would go ahead and with the wind due to be at its strongest this afternoon I do wonder if the Walrus will still be run, but at this stage racing goes ahead.
Only 4 runners this year, but it is still a classy renewal with the front 3 in the betting all top horses. Acala was put in as favourite when betting started, but he has been a massive drifter as Wishing And Hoping has been well backed. Given he jumped out to his left at Taunton going this way round should help Wishing And Hoping. He should guarantee a decent pace given he is a front runner and that could be the best place to be in this ground although he wont get much shelter from the wind depending on what direction it is going. The Taunton form hasn't really been tested yet as the 3rd home disappointed next time, but is a very in and out horse anyway.
There is little doubt in my mind that Acala would have won at Ludlow had he stood up. That race has taken some big knocks form wise though, but it isn't the biggest surprise given they went a very slow gallop. As they wanted to get him qualified for Cheltenham I would imagine they wanted him to have as easy a race as possible so I think chances are he is better than the form suggests. The Racing Post Spotlight writer has doubts he will handle heavy ground, but he has won on heavy ground so I am not sure why he has said that. The bigger question is if he wants to go this far in this ground which I would have my doubts about.
The Dellercheckout impressed me at Ludlow as he won very easy and was value for a bigger margin. He stays well based on his 3 wins this season as he has been doing his best work at the finish which could be crucial here. This is stronger than the Ludlow race and Haymount didn't do much for the form of his win the time before yesterday, but then I don't think Fakenham suited Haymount as he would have wanted more of a stamina test.
Anyone of the 3 wouldn't surprise if they won. I would have Wishing And Hoping as favourite so it is no surprise the market has made him favourite after the opening show. I think he is the right sort of price now and as much as being out in front would usually be an advantage if there is a head wind either down the back or the home straight then out in front might not be the place to be. Acala certainly has a chance as well although I am not sure he wants a slug fest so I am going to go for The Dellercheckout. I was impressed by his Ludlow win and he looks a very progressive horse. He would have to step up a bit on that effort on paper, but as I say I think he was value for bigger than the winning margin. He stays well will be held up to make his challenge late. At 100/30 I think he rates the best value in the race.
The Dellercheckout 1pt @ 100/30 with William Hill

I must admit I didn't think Haydock would go ahead and with the wind due to be at its strongest this afternoon I do wonder if the Walrus will still be run, but at this stage racing goes ahead.
Only 4 runners this year, but it is still a classy renewal with the front 3 in the betting all top horses. Acala was put in as favourite when betting started, but he has been a massive drifter as Wishing And Hoping has been well backed. Given he jumped out to his left at Taunton going this way round should help Wishing And Hoping. He should guarantee a decent pace given he is a front runner and that could be the best place to be in this ground although he wont get much shelter from the wind depending on what direction it is going. The Taunton form hasn't really been tested yet as the 3rd home disappointed next time, but is a very in and out horse anyway.
There is little doubt in my mind that Acala would have won at Ludlow had he stood up. That race has taken some big knocks form wise though, but it isn't the biggest surprise given they went a very slow gallop. As they wanted to get him qualified for Cheltenham I would imagine they wanted him to have as easy a race as possible so I think chances are he is better than the form suggests. The Racing Post Spotlight writer has doubts he will handle heavy ground, but he has won on heavy ground so I am not sure why he has said that. The bigger question is if he wants to go this far in this ground which I would have my doubts about.
The Dellercheckout impressed me at Ludlow as he won very easy and was value for a bigger margin. He stays well based on his 3 wins this season as he has been doing his best work at the finish which could be crucial here. This is stronger than the Ludlow race and Haymount didn't do much for the form of his win the time before yesterday, but then I don't think Fakenham suited Haymount as he would have wanted more of a stamina test.
Anyone of the 3 wouldn't surprise if they won. I would have Wishing And Hoping as favourite so it is no surprise the market has made him favourite after the opening show. I think he is the right sort of price now and as much as being out in front would usually be an advantage if there is a head wind either down the back or the home straight then out in front might not be the place to be. Acala certainly has a chance as well although I am not sure he wants a slug fest so I am going to go for The Dellercheckout. I was impressed by his Ludlow win and he looks a very progressive horse. He would have to step up a bit on that effort on paper, but as I say I think he was value for bigger than the winning margin. He stays well will be held up to make his challenge late. At 100/30 I think he rates the best value in the race.
The Dellercheckout 1pt @ 100/30 with William Hill

After going through the form for Leicester's hunter chase on Wednesday night I planned to add Risk And Roll as a small 3rd bet along with the other two. I then worried he wouldn't see it out and his record under rules put me off so I thought he looked more a place chance than a win chance. The run at Larkhill was full of promise though and obviously I am kicking myself for not putting him up especially as Alfstar was pulled up yet again under rules. I shouldn't have given Alfstar another chance, but there we go and it sort of sums up how the season is going so far. Runs like this always look bad if they come at the start of the season, but I am seeing the races right and just not getting the luck either with the price or choosing the right one. I am sure it will turn hopefully at Fakenham.
As for the race itself Risk And Roll was an impressive winner in the end despite not jumping all that well. He clearly stays better than I wondered if he would and you wouldn't rule out him adding to this as the season goes on. Waterloo Warrior finished really strongly although the winner was eased up so was flattered a bit too finish so close. It was a good first effort though and he looks up to this grade. Kashmir Peak travelled well into the race, but didn't find much in the closing stages and it adds more doubt to the strength of Minella Rocco's form for me. Only two others finished and Irish Anthem and Asylo were both miles behind. The former weakened very quickly having looked like he would be in the first 3.
O'Ceallaigh was still bang in contention when he unseated at 2 out. It looked like he took over a bit too early and he gave his jockey no chance. I don't think he would have won, but he hadn't been asked for his effort yet so it is hard to know where he would have finished. Magna Sam was very disappointing although his trainer blamed the going. He was a bit of a strange on course gamble although most of them shortened up apart from Kashmir Peak and the outsider so as the betting suggests plenty of connections fancied their chances in this. Alfstar never got involved and surely connections will now just stick to points with him. I hope so anyway as no doubt he will go and win next time without any of my cash on him!
 
Onto Fakenham on Friday we go and we have another Maxwell odds on shot in Shantou Flyer. Obviously his 2nd at Cheltenham last year is miles clear of anything else in this race and I honestly thought he was going to be a 1/2 shot rather than the 5/6-4/5 that he currently is. His owner wasn't on him when he won at Larkhill on his seasonal return and although that was far from the form that he showed when 2nd at Cheltenham, that was his first run since and it is worth remembering he was a well beaten 5th behind Hazel Hill at Warwick on his return last year. Given today's winner has given the form a massive boost as well it is hard to see him getting beat here.
Haymount is 2nd in the betting which is right as well. He was pulled up in the Foxhunter last year so does have work to do to beat Shantou Flyer based on that. He was sent off favourite for the 4m race on Cheltenham's hunter chase night, but he didn't stay and faded into 4th place. He returned last month at Sheriff Hutton when finishing an 8L 2nd to The Dellercheckout which was obviously a good run especially as he had race fitness on his side. I think he is better than he showed in the Foxhunter as he never travelled that day, but it is hard to see him beating a peak Shantou Flyer.
The rest all look to have a bit too find. Tullys Touch had Full Irish (3rd) 7L behind him at Ampton although the time was very slow. On his other start he was 2nd to Foxhunter hope Law Of Gold at Horseheath a couple of weeks ago. Full Irish looked firmly on the downgrade when he was running under rules last season although he is only 9 so might be able to find some form at some stage. As much as I don't think he will trouble the top two Llancillo Lord was running a good race at Ludlow last week until he unseated and he could be best of the rest. The trip would be a concern, as it was in that Ludlow race, but if he was to get away with it anywhere it would be round here.
Haymount is clearly a good horse and is capable of winning a hunter chase and he would be a strong pick to win this if it wasn't for Shantou Flyer. It was a solid return at Larkhill and he should be able to improve on that as he did last season. Like I mention above I was expecting a lot shorter than is so he has to be a bet.
Shantou Flyer 3pts @ 4/5 with Bet365 (5/6 with William Hill with no BOG)

After going through the form for Leicester's hunter chase on Wednesday night I planned to add Risk And Roll as a small 3rd bet along with the other two. I then worried he wouldn't see it out and his record under rules put me off so I thought he looked more a place chance than a win chance. The run at Larkhill was full of promise though and obviously I am kicking myself for not putting him up especially as Alfstar was pulled up yet again under rules. I shouldn't have given Alfstar another chance, but there we go and it sort of sums up how the season is going so far. Runs like this always look bad if they come at the start of the season, but I am seeing the races right and just not getting the luck either with the price or choosing the right one. I am sure it will turn hopefully at Fakenham.
As for the race itself Risk And Roll was an impressive winner in the end despite not jumping all that well. He clearly stays better than I wondered if he would and you wouldn't rule out him adding to this as the season goes on. Waterloo Warrior finished really strongly although the winner was eased up so was flattered a bit too finish so close. It was a good first effort though and he looks up to this grade. Kashmir Peak travelled well into the race, but didn't find much in the closing stages and it adds more doubt to the strength of Minella Rocco's form for me. Only two others finished and Irish Anthem and Asylo were both miles behind. The former weakened very quickly having looked like he would be in the first 3.
O'Ceallaigh was still bang in contention when he unseated at 2 out. It looked like he took over a bit too early and he gave his jockey no chance. I don't think he would have won, but he hadn't been asked for his effort yet so it is hard to know where he would have finished. Magna Sam was very disappointing although his trainer blamed the going. He was a bit of a strange on course gamble although most of them shortened up apart from Kashmir Peak and the outsider so as the betting suggests plenty of connections fancied their chances in this. Alfstar never got involved and surely connections will now just stick to points with him. I hope so anyway as no doubt he will go and win next time without any of my cash on him!
 
Onto Fakenham on Friday we go and we have another Maxwell odds on shot in Shantou Flyer. Obviously his 2nd at Cheltenham last year is miles clear of anything else in this race and I honestly thought he was going to be a 1/2 shot rather than the 5/6-4/5 that he currently is. His owner wasn't on him when he won at Larkhill on his seasonal return and although that was far from the form that he showed when 2nd at Cheltenham, that was his first run since and it is worth remembering he was a well beaten 5th behind Hazel Hill at Warwick on his return last year. Given today's winner has given the form a massive boost as well it is hard to see him getting beat here.
Haymount is 2nd in the betting which is right as well. He was pulled up in the Foxhunter last year so does have work to do to beat Shantou Flyer based on that. He was sent off favourite for the 4m race on Cheltenham's hunter chase night, but he didn't stay and faded into 4th place. He returned last month at Sheriff Hutton when finishing an 8L 2nd to The Dellercheckout which was obviously a good run especially as he had race fitness on his side. I think he is better than he showed in the Foxhunter as he never travelled that day, but it is hard to see him beating a peak Shantou Flyer.
The rest all look to have a bit too find. Tullys Touch had Full Irish (3rd) 7L behind him at Ampton although the time was very slow. On his other start he was 2nd to Foxhunter hope Law Of Gold at Horseheath a couple of weeks ago. Full Irish looked firmly on the downgrade when he was running under rules last season although he is only 9 so might be able to find some form at some stage. As much as I don't think he will trouble the top two Llancillo Lord was running a good race at Ludlow last week until he unseated and he could be best of the rest. The trip would be a concern, as it was in that Ludlow race, but if he was to get away with it anywhere it would be round here.
Haymount is clearly a good horse and is capable of winning a hunter chase and he would be a strong pick to win this if it wasn't for Shantou Flyer. It was a solid return at Larkhill and he should be able to improve on that as he did last season. Like I mention above I was expecting a lot shorter than is so he has to be a bet.
Shantou Flyer 3pts @ 4/5 with Bet365 (5/6 with William Hill with no BOG)

After going through the form for Leicester's hunter chase on Wednesday night I planned to add Risk And Roll as a small 3rd bet along with the other two. I then worried he wouldn't see it out and his record under rules put me off so I thought he looked more a place chance than a win chance. The run at Larkhill was full of promise though and obviously I am kicking myself for not putting him up especially as Alfstar was pulled up yet again under rules. I shouldn't have given Alfstar another chance, but there we go and it sort of sums up how the season is going so far. Runs like this always look bad if they come at the start of the season, but I am seeing the races right and just not getting the luck either with the price or choosing the right one. I am sure it will turn hopefully at Fakenham.
As for the race itself Risk And Roll was an impressive winner in the end despite not jumping all that well. He clearly stays better than I wondered if he would and you wouldn't rule out him adding to this as the season goes on. Waterloo Warrior finished really strongly although the winner was eased up so was flattered a bit too finish so close. It was a good first effort though and he looks up to this grade. Kashmir Peak travelled well into the race, but didn't find much in the closing stages and it adds more doubt to the strength of Minella Rocco's form for me. Only two others finished and Irish Anthem and Asylo were both miles behind. The former weakened very quickly having looked like he would be in the first 3.
O'Ceallaigh was still bang in contention when he unseated at 2 out. It looked like he took over a bit too early and he gave his jockey no chance. I don't think he would have won, but he hadn't been asked for his effort yet so it is hard to know where he would have finished. Magna Sam was very disappointing although his trainer blamed the going. He was a bit of a strange on course gamble although most of them shortened up apart from Kashmir Peak and the outsider so as the betting suggests plenty of connections fancied their chances in this. Alfstar never got involved and surely connections will now just stick to points with him. I hope so anyway as no doubt he will go and win next time without any of my cash on him!
 
Onto Fakenham on Friday we go and we have another Maxwell odds on shot in Shantou Flyer. Obviously his 2nd at Cheltenham last year is miles clear of anything else in this race and I honestly thought he was going to be a 1/2 shot rather than the 5/6-4/5 that he currently is. His owner wasn't on him when he won at Larkhill on his seasonal return and although that was far from the form that he showed when 2nd at Cheltenham, that was his first run since and it is worth remembering he was a well beaten 5th behind Hazel Hill at Warwick on his return last year. Given today's winner has given the form a massive boost as well it is hard to see him getting beat here.
Haymount is 2nd in the betting which is right as well. He was pulled up in the Foxhunter last year so does have work to do to beat Shantou Flyer based on that. He was sent off favourite for the 4m race on Cheltenham's hunter chase night, but he didn't stay and faded into 4th place. He returned last month at Sheriff Hutton when finishing an 8L 2nd to The Dellercheckout which was obviously a good run especially as he had race fitness on his side. I think he is better than he showed in the Foxhunter as he never travelled that day, but it is hard to see him beating a peak Shantou Flyer.
The rest all look to have a bit too find. Tullys Touch had Full Irish (3rd) 7L behind him at Ampton although the time was very slow. On his other start he was 2nd to Foxhunter hope Law Of Gold at Horseheath a couple of weeks ago. Full Irish looked firmly on the downgrade when he was running under rules last season although he is only 9 so might be able to find some form at some stage. As much as I don't think he will trouble the top two Llancillo Lord was running a good race at Ludlow last week until he unseated and he could be best of the rest. The trip would be a concern, as it was in that Ludlow race, but if he was to get away with it anywhere it would be round here.
Haymount is clearly a good horse and is capable of winning a hunter chase and he would be a strong pick to win this if it wasn't for Shantou Flyer. It was a solid return at Larkhill and he should be able to improve on that as he did last season. Like I mention above I was expecting a lot shorter than is so he has to be a bet.
Shantou Flyer 3pts @ 4/5 with Bet365 (5/6 with William Hill with no BOG)

After going through the form for Leicester's hunter chase on Wednesday night I planned to add Risk And Roll as a small 3rd bet along with the other two. I then worried he wouldn't see it out and his record under rules put me off so I thought he looked more a place chance than a win chance. The run at Larkhill was full of promise though and obviously I am kicking myself for not putting him up especially as Alfstar was pulled up yet again under rules. I shouldn't have given Alfstar another chance, but there we go and it sort of sums up how the season is going so far. Runs like this always look bad if they come at the start of the season, but I am seeing the races right and just not getting the luck either with the price or choosing the right one. I am sure it will turn hopefully at Fakenham.
As for the race itself Risk And Roll was an impressive winner in the end despite not jumping all that well. He clearly stays better than I wondered if he would and you wouldn't rule out him adding to this as the season goes on. Waterloo Warrior finished really strongly although the winner was eased up so was flattered a bit too finish so close. It was a good first effort though and he looks up to this grade. Kashmir Peak travelled well into the race, but didn't find much in the closing stages and it adds more doubt to the strength of Minella Rocco's form for me. Only two others finished and Irish Anthem and Asylo were both miles behind. The former weakened very quickly having looked like he would be in the first 3.
O'Ceallaigh was still bang in contention when he unseated at 2 out. It looked like he took over a bit too early and he gave his jockey no chance. I don't think he would have won, but he hadn't been asked for his effort yet so it is hard to know where he would have finished. Magna Sam was very disappointing although his trainer blamed the going. He was a bit of a strange on course gamble although most of them shortened up apart from Kashmir Peak and the outsider so as the betting suggests plenty of connections fancied their chances in this. Alfstar never got involved and surely connections will now just stick to points with him. I hope so anyway as no doubt he will go and win next time without any of my cash on him!
 
Onto Fakenham on Friday we go and we have another Maxwell odds on shot in Shantou Flyer. Obviously his 2nd at Cheltenham last year is miles clear of anything else in this race and I honestly thought he was going to be a 1/2 shot rather than the 5/6-4/5 that he currently is. His owner wasn't on him when he won at Larkhill on his seasonal return and although that was far from the form that he showed when 2nd at Cheltenham, that was his first run since and it is worth remembering he was a well beaten 5th behind Hazel Hill at Warwick on his return last year. Given today's winner has given the form a massive boost as well it is hard to see him getting beat here.
Haymount is 2nd in the betting which is right as well. He was pulled up in the Foxhunter last year so does have work to do to beat Shantou Flyer based on that. He was sent off favourite for the 4m race on Cheltenham's hunter chase night, but he didn't stay and faded into 4th place. He returned last month at Sheriff Hutton when finishing an 8L 2nd to The Dellercheckout which was obviously a good run especially as he had race fitness on his side. I think he is better than he showed in the Foxhunter as he never travelled that day, but it is hard to see him beating a peak Shantou Flyer.
The rest all look to have a bit too find. Tullys Touch had Full Irish (3rd) 7L behind him at Ampton although the time was very slow. On his other start he was 2nd to Foxhunter hope Law Of Gold at Horseheath a couple of weeks ago. Full Irish looked firmly on the downgrade when he was running under rules last season although he is only 9 so might be able to find some form at some stage. As much as I don't think he will trouble the top two Llancillo Lord was running a good race at Ludlow last week until he unseated and he could be best of the rest. The trip would be a concern, as it was in that Ludlow race, but if he was to get away with it anywhere it would be round here.
Haymount is clearly a good horse and is capable of winning a hunter chase and he would be a strong pick to win this if it wasn't for Shantou Flyer. It was a solid return at Larkhill and he should be able to improve on that as he did last season. Like I mention above I was expecting a lot shorter than is so he has to be a bet.
Shantou Flyer 3pts @ 4/5 with Bet365 (5/6 with William Hill with no BOG)

We got an update on Hazel Hill this week and his trainer reported him to be all set for Cheltenham. He was found to have a slight muscle strain after Wetherby and it would appear it happened at the open ditch where he came up from outside the wings as it was after that he started jumping out to the right. He hasn't missed any work so he will bid to keep hold of his title next month. We also know now why he ran below par and his jumping wasn't great.
In Ireland Staker Wallace has got an entry in a point in Ireland on Sunday and he would need to win that to qualify him for Cheltenham. Derek O'Connor had a look at some of the leading Irish contenders for the Foxhunter and he mentioned that Staker Wallace could be competitive at Cheltenham should he qualify. He called Billaway's win last time a smart performance despite a lack of pace. He thought that Rewritetherules might be lacking a little experience wise, but he is a high-quality horse who possesses a lot of speed and would be the ideal horse to hold up in the race. His final mention on the Irish front was for Some Man who he says is a good sound jumper that stays well and is relatively unexposed. What is interesting was that he didn't mention Stand Up And Fight which suggests to me we won't see him among the entries in a couple of weeks. Anyone wanting to back him would have to do so with a NRNB bookie in my view.
He then mentioned 3 UK runners, Caid Du Berlais, Minella Rocco and Hazel Hill. What he said about Minella Rocco and the Wetherby race was especially interesting. 'I was very happy with at Wetherby, but would have to admit it was a tactical race, and favourite Hazel Hill didn't run up to his usual standard. The form of the race is questionable.' I think he has major concerns about him being capable of winning the Foxhunter.
As mentioned above Bob And Co and The Dellercheckout could both run at Haydock on Saturday where Wishing And Hoping and Virak are also among the entries.

We got an update on Hazel Hill this week and his trainer reported him to be all set for Cheltenham. He was found to have a slight muscle strain after Wetherby and it would appear it happened at the open ditch where he came up from outside the wings as it was after that he started jumping out to the right. He hasn't missed any work so he will bid to keep hold of his title next month. We also know now why he ran below par and his jumping wasn't great.
In Ireland Staker Wallace has got an entry in a point in Ireland on Sunday and he would need to win that to qualify him for Cheltenham. Derek O'Connor had a look at some of the leading Irish contenders for the Foxhunter and he mentioned that Staker Wallace could be competitive at Cheltenham should he qualify. He called Billaway's win last time a smart performance despite a lack of pace. He thought that Rewritetherules might be lacking a little experience wise, but he is a high-quality horse who possesses a lot of speed and would be the ideal horse to hold up in the race. His final mention on the Irish front was for Some Man who he says is a good sound jumper that stays well and is relatively unexposed. What is interesting was that he didn't mention Stand Up And Fight which suggests to me we won't see him among the entries in a couple of weeks. Anyone wanting to back him would have to do so with a NRNB bookie in my view.
He then mentioned 3 UK runners, Caid Du Berlais, Minella Rocco and Hazel Hill. What he said about Minella Rocco and the Wetherby race was especially interesting. 'I was very happy with at Wetherby, but would have to admit it was a tactical race, and favourite Hazel Hill didn't run up to his usual standard. The form of the race is questionable.' I think he has major concerns about him being capable of winning the Foxhunter.
As mentioned above Bob And Co and The Dellercheckout could both run at Haydock on Saturday where Wishing And Hoping and Virak are also among the entries.

The first novice hunter chase of the season and it means we have our biggest field and most competitive race so far.
Kashmir Peak has been put in as favourite on the back of his 2nd to Minella Rocco at Warwick last time. He looked the winner as they left the back straight as well before the former Gold Cup 2nd stayed on strongly to take the spoils. He got given an RPR of 126 for that effort which clearly was just because he finished so close to Minella Rocco. His pointing rating is just 107 though and 3 of these have higher ratings than that with a couple that are yet to have ratings and one of those would be higher than that for sure. I think that Warwick form is suspect and the pointing rating is more where I would have him in the context of this race. Minella Rocco fans will be wanting to see him win though otherwise you can continue to pick holes in his form.
Alfstar has run in 4 hunter chases to date and has pulled up in 3 of them. That clearly isn't good, but connections are giving it another go and I can certainly see why. First of all lets deal with the hunter chase runs. The one where he did complete he was a very good 3rd at Bangor two years ago behind Aintree 4th Barrakilla and Wells De Lune who has won numerous times since. Last May he ran at Cheltenham on hunter chase night and he bled which is why he ran so disappointingly. On pointing form he has a superb chance. He has won 5 of his 15 starts and won a decent race at Bangor's point-to-point track on his seasonal debut. He clearly has been a hard horse to keep sound as he has only run 21 times, but the trip and ground are ideal for him and if he can finally put it altogether under rules he should go very close.
Asylo didn't get very far on his pointing debut for new connections last month so we have just his rules form to go on where he had 4 different trainers latterly with Dr Newland. He only won once for him last season when winning over hurdles off 118 at Uttoxeter in November 2018. He had a couple of good 2nds after that including over fences off 125 at Market Rasen last July. If in that sort of form he has a chance in this, but I do worry about the ground for him despite the fact he has won on soft because he has disappointed on testing ground every other time. Also he was poor in his last two starts for the Dr and horses don't usually improve after they leave him. If he won it wouldn't be a surprise, but equally he isn't for me.
One that is for me is O Ceallaigh who ran a huge race for me last week at Ludlow on his first start since December 2018. Given how keen he was out in front he did really well to finish as close to The Dellercheckout as he did given how long he had been off. Trip and ground certainly wont be an issue although the bounce factor might be. Sometimes horses after who run well after a long layoff do run disappointingly the next time. That for me is factored into the price though and I would have him as favourite myself on the back of the Ludlow run. 
Risk And Roll seemed to do everything he could to get beat whilst with Paul Nicholls which is obviously a worry as he often found little under pressure. He made a promising first run for new connections at Larkhill in a race run by Shantou Flyer. He was in contention until about 1/2m from home and he ended up being beaten 20L in 4th. He could be just the type of horse he might thrive in a small yard and I can see him winning races. I was tempted to put him up as a bet, but the trip especially on this ground puts me off. He seemed better over a shorter trip for Nicholls and the combination of the ground over this far might be enough for him. His Larkhill run backs that up as well although it could also be because he wasn't fit enough first time out.
On his form in the first couple of months of last season Irish Anthem would be favourite for this as he looked very good in his 3 wins. He got injured after that and had a year off. At the time the 2nd to Buck Dancing first time out at Alnwick looked a very good return, but Buck Dancing has run poorly in two hunter chase runs since and it doesn't look so good now. He was 23L behind The Dellercheckout on his next start and that obviously means he has work to do with O Ceallaigh. Then a week later he was 2nd at Bangor's point-to-point track when he was beaten 10L by a 33/1 shot in a weak race. Based on that he has work to do with Alfstar who won on the same card in a quicker time. I am always wary of his trainer's horses and he was talking this one up as a Foxhunter horse before he got injured. I can understand people taking a chance based on his old form, but I am happy to pass based on what he has done this season especially as he is now 12 and it is his first run under rules.
Waterloo Warrior certainly seems an improved horse since going pointing late last season and he has won 4 out of 5 starts. The problem is he hasn't really achieved a great deal so far in those wins and the one time he ran in a good race he was pulled up at Larkhill. Top jockey booked, but his pointing rating is just 97 and that for me shows how much he needs to find.
Magna Sam is the only hunter chase winner in the field when he won at Ludlow month. Obviously he was very lucky that day with Alcala falling and taking out Diue Vivant. Given they went no pace I think that form is suspect and it helped keep him in contention for as long as he did. I can't see him adding to that win here. 
Five Gold Bars was well backed to win his Restricted last time and it is interesting they are going straight into hunter chase company on his next start. He is the most unexposed runner in the field, but he does have to improve a fair bit to win this so he is a watching brief for me.
Berboru is still a maiden and looks out of his depth here.
As much as I fancy more than others you could give most of these some sort of chance. Risk And Roll just misses out as I am worried about the trip on this ground, but there was promise in the Larkhill run for sure. O Ceallaigh should be favourite for this based on his run last week for me so has to be the main selection. Obviously the bounce factor is a concern, but that is factored into the price for me. I am also giving Alfstar another chance to show his pointing form under rules. That point win last time is strong form and the 3rd at Bangor gives him a good chance.
O Ceallaigh 1.5pts @ 6/1 with Bet365
Alfstar 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365 (everyone else is as well but 365 are BOG if you can get it)

The first novice hunter chase of the season and it means we have our biggest field and most competitive race so far.
Kashmir Peak has been put in as favourite on the back of his 2nd to Minella Rocco at Warwick last time. He looked the winner as they left the back straight as well before the former Gold Cup 2nd stayed on strongly to take the spoils. He got given an RPR of 126 for that effort which clearly was just because he finished so close to Minella Rocco. His pointing rating is just 107 though and 3 of these have higher ratings than that with a couple that are yet to have ratings and one of those would be higher than that for sure. I think that Warwick form is suspect and the pointing rating is more where I would have him in the context of this race. Minella Rocco fans will be wanting to see him win though otherwise you can continue to pick holes in his form.
Alfstar has run in 4 hunter chases to date and has pulled up in 3 of them. That clearly isn't good, but connections are giving it another go and I can certainly see why. First of all lets deal with the hunter chase runs. The one where he did complete he was a very good 3rd at Bangor two years ago behind Aintree 4th Barrakilla and Wells De Lune who has won numerous times since. Last May he ran at Cheltenham on hunter chase night and he bled which is why he ran so disappointingly. On pointing form he has a superb chance. He has won 5 of his 15 starts and won a decent race at Bangor's point-to-point track on his seasonal debut. He clearly has been a hard horse to keep sound as he has only run 21 times, but the trip and ground are ideal for him and if he can finally put it altogether under rules he should go very close.
Asylo didn't get very far on his pointing debut for new connections last month so we have just his rules form to go on where he had 4 different trainers latterly with Dr Newland. He only won once for him last season when winning over hurdles off 118 at Uttoxeter in November 2018. He had a couple of good 2nds after that including over fences off 125 at Market Rasen last July. If in that sort of form he has a chance in this, but I do worry about the ground for him despite the fact he has won on soft because he has disappointed on testing ground every other time. Also he was poor in his last two starts for the Dr and horses don't usually improve after they leave him. If he won it wouldn't be a surprise, but equally he isn't for me.
One that is for me is O Ceallaigh who ran a huge race for me last week at Ludlow on his first start since December 2018. Given how keen he was out in front he did really well to finish as close to The Dellercheckout as he did given how long he had been off. Trip and ground certainly wont be an issue although the bounce factor might be. Sometimes horses after who run well after a long layoff do run disappointingly the next time. That for me is factored into the price though and I would have him as favourite myself on the back of the Ludlow run. 
Risk And Roll seemed to do everything he could to get beat whilst with Paul Nicholls which is obviously a worry as he often found little under pressure. He made a promising first run for new connections at Larkhill in a race run by Shantou Flyer. He was in contention until about 1/2m from home and he ended up being beaten 20L in 4th. He could be just the type of horse he might thrive in a small yard and I can see him winning races. I was tempted to put him up as a bet, but the trip especially on this ground puts me off. He seemed better over a shorter trip for Nicholls and the combination of the ground over this far might be enough for him. His Larkhill run backs that up as well although it could also be because he wasn't fit enough first time out.
On his form in the first couple of months of last season Irish Anthem would be favourite for this as he looked very good in his 3 wins. He got injured after that and had a year off. At the time the 2nd to Buck Dancing first time out at Alnwick looked a very good return, but Buck Dancing has run poorly in two hunter chase runs since and it doesn't look so good now. He was 23L behind The Dellercheckout on his next start and that obviously means he has work to do with O Ceallaigh. Then a week later he was 2nd at Bangor's point-to-point track when he was beaten 10L by a 33/1 shot in a weak race. Based on that he has work to do with Alfstar who won on the same card in a quicker time. I am always wary of his trainer's horses and he was talking this one up as a Foxhunter horse before he got injured. I can understand people taking a chance based on his old form, but I am happy to pass based on what he has done this season especially as he is now 12 and it is his first run under rules.
Waterloo Warrior certainly seems an improved horse since going pointing late last season and he has won 4 out of 5 starts. The problem is he hasn't really achieved a great deal so far in those wins and the one time he ran in a good race he was pulled up at Larkhill. Top jockey booked, but his pointing rating is just 97 and that for me shows how much he needs to find.
Magna Sam is the only hunter chase winner in the field when he won at Ludlow month. Obviously he was very lucky that day with Alcala falling and taking out Diue Vivant. Given they went no pace I think that form is suspect and it helped keep him in contention for as long as he did. I can't see him adding to that win here. 
Five Gold Bars was well backed to win his Restricted last time and it is interesting they are going straight into hunter chase company on his next start. He is the most unexposed runner in the field, but he does have to improve a fair bit to win this so he is a watching brief for me.
Berboru is still a maiden and looks out of his depth here.
As much as I fancy more than others you could give most of these some sort of chance. Risk And Roll just misses out as I am worried about the trip on this ground, but there was promise in the Larkhill run for sure. O Ceallaigh should be favourite for this based on his run last week for me so has to be the main selection. Obviously the bounce factor is a concern, but that is factored into the price for me. I am also giving Alfstar another chance to show his pointing form under rules. That point win last time is strong form and the 3rd at Bangor gives him a good chance.
O Ceallaigh 1.5pts @ 6/1 with Bet365
Alfstar 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365 (everyone else is as well but 365 are BOG if you can get it)

The first novice hunter chase of the season and it means we have our biggest field and most competitive race so far.
Kashmir Peak has been put in as favourite on the back of his 2nd to Minella Rocco at Warwick last time. He looked the winner as they left the back straight as well before the former Gold Cup 2nd stayed on strongly to take the spoils. He got given an RPR of 126 for that effort which clearly was just because he finished so close to Minella Rocco. His pointing rating is just 107 though and 3 of these have higher ratings than that with a couple that are yet to have ratings and one of those would be higher than that for sure. I think that Warwick form is suspect and the pointing rating is more where I would have him in the context of this race. Minella Rocco fans will be wanting to see him win though otherwise you can continue to pick holes in his form.
Alfstar has run in 4 hunter chases to date and has pulled up in 3 of them. That clearly isn't good, but connections are giving it another go and I can certainly see why. First of all lets deal with the hunter chase runs. The one where he did complete he was a very good 3rd at Bangor two years ago behind Aintree 4th Barrakilla and Wells De Lune who has won numerous times since. Last May he ran at Cheltenham on hunter chase night and he bled which is why he ran so disappointingly. On pointing form he has a superb chance. He has won 5 of his 15 starts and won a decent race at Bangor's point-to-point track on his seasonal debut. He clearly has been a hard horse to keep sound as he has only run 21 times, but the trip and ground are ideal for him and if he can finally put it altogether under rules he should go very close.
Asylo didn't get very far on his pointing debut for new connections last month so we have just his rules form to go on where he had 4 different trainers latterly with Dr Newland. He only won once for him last season when winning over hurdles off 118 at Uttoxeter in November 2018. He had a couple of good 2nds after that including over fences off 125 at Market Rasen last July. If in that sort of form he has a chance in this, but I do worry about the ground for him despite the fact he has won on soft because he has disappointed on testing ground every other time. Also he was poor in his last two starts for the Dr and horses don't usually improve after they leave him. If he won it wouldn't be a surprise, but equally he isn't for me.
One that is for me is O Ceallaigh who ran a huge race for me last week at Ludlow on his first start since December 2018. Given how keen he was out in front he did really well to finish as close to The Dellercheckout as he did given how long he had been off. Trip and ground certainly wont be an issue although the bounce factor might be. Sometimes horses after who run well after a long layoff do run disappointingly the next time. That for me is factored into the price though and I would have him as favourite myself on the back of the Ludlow run. 
Risk And Roll seemed to do everything he could to get beat whilst with Paul Nicholls which is obviously a worry as he often found little under pressure. He made a promising first run for new connections at Larkhill in a race run by Shantou Flyer. He was in contention until about 1/2m from home and he ended up being beaten 20L in 4th. He could be just the type of horse he might thrive in a small yard and I can see him winning races. I was tempted to put him up as a bet, but the trip especially on this ground puts me off. He seemed better over a shorter trip for Nicholls and the combination of the ground over this far might be enough for him. His Larkhill run backs that up as well although it could also be because he wasn't fit enough first time out.
On his form in the first couple of months of last season Irish Anthem would be favourite for this as he looked very good in his 3 wins. He got injured after that and had a year off. At the time the 2nd to Buck Dancing first time out at Alnwick looked a very good return, but Buck Dancing has run poorly in two hunter chase runs since and it doesn't look so good now. He was 23L behind The Dellercheckout on his next start and that obviously means he has work to do with O Ceallaigh. Then a week later he was 2nd at Bangor's point-to-point track when he was beaten 10L by a 33/1 shot in a weak race. Based on that he has work to do with Alfstar who won on the same card in a quicker time. I am always wary of his trainer's horses and he was talking this one up as a Foxhunter horse before he got injured. I can understand people taking a chance based on his old form, but I am happy to pass based on what he has done this season especially as he is now 12 and it is his first run under rules.
Waterloo Warrior certainly seems an improved horse since going pointing late last season and he has won 4 out of 5 starts. The problem is he hasn't really achieved a great deal so far in those wins and the one time he ran in a good race he was pulled up at Larkhill. Top jockey booked, but his pointing rating is just 97 and that for me shows how much he needs to find.
Magna Sam is the only hunter chase winner in the field when he won at Ludlow month. Obviously he was very lucky that day with Alcala falling and taking out Diue Vivant. Given they went no pace I think that form is suspect and it helped keep him in contention for as long as he did. I can't see him adding to that win here. 
Five Gold Bars was well backed to win his Restricted last time and it is interesting they are going straight into hunter chase company on his next start. He is the most unexposed runner in the field, but he does have to improve a fair bit to win this so he is a watching brief for me.
Berboru is still a maiden and looks out of his depth here.
As much as I fancy more than others you could give most of these some sort of chance. Risk And Roll just misses out as I am worried about the trip on this ground, but there was promise in the Larkhill run for sure. O Ceallaigh should be favourite for this based on his run last week for me so has to be the main selection. Obviously the bounce factor is a concern, but that is factored into the price for me. I am also giving Alfstar another chance to show his pointing form under rules. That point win last time is strong form and the 3rd at Bangor gives him a good chance.
O Ceallaigh 1.5pts @ 6/1 with Bet365
Alfstar 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365 (everyone else is as well but 365 are BOG if you can get it)

The first novice hunter chase of the season and it means we have our biggest field and most competitive race so far.
Kashmir Peak has been put in as favourite on the back of his 2nd to Minella Rocco at Warwick last time. He looked the winner as they left the back straight as well before the former Gold Cup 2nd stayed on strongly to take the spoils. He got given an RPR of 126 for that effort which clearly was just because he finished so close to Minella Rocco. His pointing rating is just 107 though and 3 of these have higher ratings than that with a couple that are yet to have ratings and one of those would be higher than that for sure. I think that Warwick form is suspect and the pointing rating is more where I would have him in the context of this race. Minella Rocco fans will be wanting to see him win though otherwise you can continue to pick holes in his form.
Alfstar has run in 4 hunter chases to date and has pulled up in 3 of them. That clearly isn't good, but connections are giving it another go and I can certainly see why. First of all lets deal with the hunter chase runs. The one where he did complete he was a very good 3rd at Bangor two years ago behind Aintree 4th Barrakilla and Wells De Lune who has won numerous times since. Last May he ran at Cheltenham on hunter chase night and he bled which is why he ran so disappointingly. On pointing form he has a superb chance. He has won 5 of his 15 starts and won a decent race at Bangor's point-to-point track on his seasonal debut. He clearly has been a hard horse to keep sound as he has only run 21 times, but the trip and ground are ideal for him and if he can finally put it altogether under rules he should go very close.
Asylo didn't get very far on his pointing debut for new connections last month so we have just his rules form to go on where he had 4 different trainers latterly with Dr Newland. He only won once for him last season when winning over hurdles off 118 at Uttoxeter in November 2018. He had a couple of good 2nds after that including over fences off 125 at Market Rasen last July. If in that sort of form he has a chance in this, but I do worry about the ground for him despite the fact he has won on soft because he has disappointed on testing ground every other time. Also he was poor in his last two starts for the Dr and horses don't usually improve after they leave him. If he won it wouldn't be a surprise, but equally he isn't for me.
One that is for me is O Ceallaigh who ran a huge race for me last week at Ludlow on his first start since December 2018. Given how keen he was out in front he did really well to finish as close to The Dellercheckout as he did given how long he had been off. Trip and ground certainly wont be an issue although the bounce factor might be. Sometimes horses after who run well after a long layoff do run disappointingly the next time. That for me is factored into the price though and I would have him as favourite myself on the back of the Ludlow run. 
Risk And Roll seemed to do everything he could to get beat whilst with Paul Nicholls which is obviously a worry as he often found little under pressure. He made a promising first run for new connections at Larkhill in a race run by Shantou Flyer. He was in contention until about 1/2m from home and he ended up being beaten 20L in 4th. He could be just the type of horse he might thrive in a small yard and I can see him winning races. I was tempted to put him up as a bet, but the trip especially on this ground puts me off. He seemed better over a shorter trip for Nicholls and the combination of the ground over this far might be enough for him. His Larkhill run backs that up as well although it could also be because he wasn't fit enough first time out.
On his form in the first couple of months of last season Irish Anthem would be favourite for this as he looked very good in his 3 wins. He got injured after that and had a year off. At the time the 2nd to Buck Dancing first time out at Alnwick looked a very good return, but Buck Dancing has run poorly in two hunter chase runs since and it doesn't look so good now. He was 23L behind The Dellercheckout on his next start and that obviously means he has work to do with O Ceallaigh. Then a week later he was 2nd at Bangor's point-to-point track when he was beaten 10L by a 33/1 shot in a weak race. Based on that he has work to do with Alfstar who won on the same card in a quicker time. I am always wary of his trainer's horses and he was talking this one up as a Foxhunter horse before he got injured. I can understand people taking a chance based on his old form, but I am happy to pass based on what he has done this season especially as he is now 12 and it is his first run under rules.
Waterloo Warrior certainly seems an improved horse since going pointing late last season and he has won 4 out of 5 starts. The problem is he hasn't really achieved a great deal so far in those wins and the one time he ran in a good race he was pulled up at Larkhill. Top jockey booked, but his pointing rating is just 97 and that for me shows how much he needs to find.
Magna Sam is the only hunter chase winner in the field when he won at Ludlow month. Obviously he was very lucky that day with Alcala falling and taking out Diue Vivant. Given they went no pace I think that form is suspect and it helped keep him in contention for as long as he did. I can't see him adding to that win here. 
Five Gold Bars was well backed to win his Restricted last time and it is interesting they are going straight into hunter chase company on his next start. He is the most unexposed runner in the field, but he does have to improve a fair bit to win this so he is a watching brief for me.
Berboru is still a maiden and looks out of his depth here.
As much as I fancy more than others you could give most of these some sort of chance. Risk And Roll just misses out as I am worried about the trip on this ground, but there was promise in the Larkhill run for sure. O Ceallaigh should be favourite for this based on his run last week for me so has to be the main selection. Obviously the bounce factor is a concern, but that is factored into the price for me. I am also giving Alfstar another chance to show his pointing form under rules. That point win last time is strong form and the 3rd at Bangor gives him a good chance.
O Ceallaigh 1.5pts @ 6/1 with Bet365
Alfstar 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365 (everyone else is as well but 365 are BOG if you can get it)

2nd race running that the late market moves have cost me a winning bet as Bob And Co went odds against on the exchanges prior to the race, which was a crazy price. For me that more than factored in the fact he might have pulled hard again as bar a repeat of Warwick he was going to win. At 4/9 I wouldn't take that chance, but at 11/10 I certainly would. Tom Collins of the Racing Post Tweeted after the race that Foxhunters ante-post punters discovered that Bob And Co is a proper horse, but how on earth anyone can take that based on what ended up a solo I don't know. We already knew he had class as he had shown that in France and to a certain extent at Warwick as well. The key thing we discovered was that he can settle and surely the credit must go to Paul Nicholls here as he must have worked on him at home to make sure he did settle. Even when Swift Crusador decided to go on he didn't pull his riders arms out which was a good thing. After that one unseated though he basically had a solo as Ballynagour couldn't get anywhere near him. What we still don't know is if he will stay, if he will handle an undulating track (could going downhill make him go too fast again?), or if he is actually good enough to win. What I will say is that from a level where I didn't fancy him at all for the race I am much more open minded to his chances now. Hopefully we will find out more next time. He has been entered for Kelso on Thursday, but apparently the Walrus at Haydock is set to be the aim. That should be a stiffer test than this race.
Swift Crusador was a massive gamble and the main reason Bob And Co drifted so badly. He had been on the keen side himself early on and it was too early to know what would have happened had he not departed the race. Clearly connections were expecting something special though as he went off at 2/1 having been 14/1 last night. On the back of that he would have to be considered in a future race. Hopefully Pass The Hat is OK after having to pull up, whilst Ballynagour never got involved. It backs up my thinking that the Ludlow race is suspect form and that his 3rd at Cottenham is nothing special either. It could also be that on his 4th start of the season he may have had enough already at the age of 14. 
So hopefully if he goes to Haydock we will see Bob And Co face a proper test and we can get a better guide as to where we stand with him regarding Cheltenham.

We have had some big fields for this race in the past, but not this year as Bob And Co only has 3 rivals to beat. I think you have to be mad to want to back him at 4/9 given what we saw at Warwick, but if his rider doesn't get cramp again he should win. He has worn a hood before in France so that isn't new, but he does get a tongue-tie added. What concerns me most is that Maxwell said the horse would be better in a bigger field at Cheltenham, but to qualify for Cheltenham he is going to have to run in two small field events first. The shorter trip should help him last home and maybe having had a run he might be a bit calmer.
Ballynagour was travelling well enough still when falling at Ludlow 4 from home and he had pulled hard for a long way as well. I wonder if the idea here would be let him bowl along. The issue I have is that the 3rd at Cottenham isn't exactly looking as it did at the tie with Art Mauresque losing on Sunday and Bletchely Castle was disappointing at Musselburgh on Saturday. Also the Ludlow form is suspect as well after what happened back there on Wednesday to Dieu Vivant. To be fair to him the slow pace wouldn't have helped because of the way he pulled. 
Pass The Hat beat a Maxwell hot pot at Carlisle last March when I didn't given him a a chance and I didn't fancy him when he won at Southwell the year before either. He ran really poorly first time out last season in a point and if he repeats that he hasn't got a chance here. 
Swift Crusador ran well first time up last season when he won at Sandown off a mark of 120, but his other two starts he was well beaten. He was then sold for just £5k in November. He is only 9, but you do have to wonder why a horse rated 122 only made £5k. Even so I can see why the double figure price has gone as he shouldn't have been that much bigger than Ballynagour and Pass The Hat.
I think this is just a race to watch again and I can imagine that plenty of people will be watching after Warwick. Bob And Co has the most ability, but with the doubt about if he will be calm enough for his jockey he clearly can't be put up at 4/9. I don't have a massively strong view on who might finish 2nd either as all 3 have questions to ask although Pass The Hat would be the one I liked the least. 

We have had some big fields for this race in the past, but not this year as Bob And Co only has 3 rivals to beat. I think you have to be mad to want to back him at 4/9 given what we saw at Warwick, but if his rider doesn't get cramp again he should win. He has worn a hood before in France so that isn't new, but he does get a tongue-tie added. What concerns me most is that Maxwell said the horse would be better in a bigger field at Cheltenham, but to qualify for Cheltenham he is going to have to run in two small field events first. The shorter trip should help him last home and maybe having had a run he might be a bit calmer.
Ballynagour was travelling well enough still when falling at Ludlow 4 from home and he had pulled hard for a long way as well. I wonder if the idea here would be let him bowl along. The issue I have is that the 3rd at Cottenham isn't exactly looking as it did at the tie with Art Mauresque losing on Sunday and Bletchely Castle was disappointing at Musselburgh on Saturday. Also the Ludlow form is suspect as well after what happened back there on Wednesday to Dieu Vivant. To be fair to him the slow pace wouldn't have helped because of the way he pulled. 
Pass The Hat beat a Maxwell hot pot at Carlisle last March when I didn't given him a a chance and I didn't fancy him when he won at Southwell the year before either. He ran really poorly first time out last season in a point and if he repeats that he hasn't got a chance here. 
Swift Crusador ran well first time up last season when he won at Sandown off a mark of 120, but his other two starts he was well beaten. He was then sold for just £5k in November. He is only 9, but you do have to wonder why a horse rated 122 only made £5k. Even so I can see why the double figure price has gone as he shouldn't have been that much bigger than Ballynagour and Pass The Hat.
I think this is just a race to watch again and I can imagine that plenty of people will be watching after Warwick. Bob And Co has the most ability, but with the doubt about if he will be calm enough for his jockey he clearly can't be put up at 4/9. I don't have a massively strong view on who might finish 2nd either as all 3 have questions to ask although Pass The Hat would be the one I liked the least. 

Seeing The Dellercheckout win was frustrating given I wanted to tip him up, but obviously it would have been pointless tipping him up when the prices came out and they went quickly anyway. I suspected he might drift back out, but it didn't really get to a backable price until close to the race where again it was too late to tip him up. At the end of the day I will not tip something up just because I think it will win regardless of price especially as BOG is so hard to get the night before now if have accounts that are allowed it anyway. I thought it was a really impressive performance because Immy never had to get serious with him and was value for a fair bit more than the winning margin. He is clearly a changed horse from the one that was with Paul Nicholls and the 16/1 for Cheltenham seems a fair price. After the race Immy mentioned that he will be entered for Cheltenham, but because he is 7 they might choose to wait another year with him. Given that was only his 4th start over fences that could be a sensible decision, but he stays and will handle any ground and if he did go this year I think he could run a big race.
Monbeg Gold made a mistake 2 out, but it made no difference to the result and he was beaten fair and square. It was a promising effort on his first start of the season though. O Ceallaigh was coming back after an even longer layoff and given how keen he was I thought he did really well to finish 3rd. As long as he doesn't bounce he could be interesting on his next start. The big disappointment of the race was Dieu Vivant who traveled into the race the really well, but found nothing when asked for an effort. It makes me think he is a bridle horse and the fact they went no pace last time allowed him to travel into the race for longer than he did here. He looks one to avoid after this. Llancillo Lord was running a nice race until unseating 4 out. Stamina was a big question mark so it is hard to know where he would have finished, but he could be capable of adding to his Fakenham win at some point this term.
The next race is tomorrow at Bangor.

Seeing The Dellercheckout win was frustrating given I wanted to tip him up, but obviously it would have been pointless tipping him up when the prices came out and they went quickly anyway. I suspected he might drift back out, but it didn't really get to a backable price until close to the race where again it was too late to tip him up. At the end of the day I will not tip something up just because I think it will win regardless of price especially as BOG is so hard to get the night before now if have accounts that are allowed it anyway. I thought it was a really impressive performance because Immy never had to get serious with him and was value for a fair bit more than the winning margin. He is clearly a changed horse from the one that was with Paul Nicholls and the 16/1 for Cheltenham seems a fair price. After the race Immy mentioned that he will be entered for Cheltenham, but because he is 7 they might choose to wait another year with him. Given that was only his 4th start over fences that could be a sensible decision, but he stays and will handle any ground and if he did go this year I think he could run a big race.
Monbeg Gold made a mistake 2 out, but it made no difference to the result and he was beaten fair and square. It was a promising effort on his first start of the season though. O Ceallaigh was coming back after an even longer layoff and given how keen he was I thought he did really well to finish 3rd. As long as he doesn't bounce he could be interesting on his next start. The big disappointment of the race was Dieu Vivant who traveled into the race the really well, but found nothing when asked for an effort. It makes me think he is a bridle horse and the fact they went no pace last time allowed him to travel into the race for longer than he did here. He looks one to avoid after this. Llancillo Lord was running a nice race until unseating 4 out. Stamina was a big question mark so it is hard to know where he would have finished, but he could be capable of adding to his Fakenham win at some point this term.
The next race is tomorrow at Bangor.

The 11/4 about The Dellercheckout didn't last anymore than 2 minutes and within about 20 it was into 6/4 with Bet365. At the time of writing he is a best price of 11/8 which is certainly more realistic than the 11/4 to start with. He seems to have turned a corner for new connections as the best of his chase form was a win in a 5 runner race off 116 at Taunton a year ago. Connections put the improved run down to the fact he wore blinkers and they didn't work the 2nd time as he pulled up at Chepstow in April. Having cost £260k in March 2017 his new connections paid just £21k last year. Interestingly the headgear isn't needed anymore as he has won 2/2 in points. First up he beat Don Bersy by a length and Don Bersy beat Bishops Road (apparently Cheltenham Foxhunters bound) in November and won on his next start so that form looks solid. He then ran out a easy winner in soft ground at Sheriff Hutton and connections have mentioned possibly going to Cheltenham with him. He is only 7 and the pointing form does seem a step up on his rules form for Nicholls, but obviously we don't know how he is going to go back under rules.
Monbeg Gold has moved from Jonjo to his wife and it is her first ever runner under rules although I think she has had 6 runners in points from what I can tell. He was off from May 17 until October 18 so clearly had an issue and in that time he had a wind op. He needed the first run over hurdles, but back over fences he won in November and then in April last year off 115 and 118. He was raised to 130 after that when he unseated at Uttoxeter way too early to know what he would have done. My guess is they want to be aiming him at either Cheltenham or Aintree and he has run well after a lay off before. The Southwell win got him a Racing Post Rating of 136 and if he repeats that that might well be enough to win.
Dieu Vivant was unfortunate at Ludlow when the falling Alcala hampered him over course and distance last month. He was still travelling well enough at that stage so he might well have given Alcala a race. He should come on for that run as well and although they went no gallop which might mean the form is a bit suspect, there doesn't look like there will be a great deal of pace in this race either. He is far from out of this.
Llancillo Lord won a weak Fakenham hunter chase last year and was then 5th at Kelso and 2nd over 2m1f at Stratford on hunter chase night. I'm not sure he wants this trip although if they do go no pace that will help, but I also don't think he will be good enough anyway.
O Ceallaigh looked on the downgrade in Ireland and was only 6th on his first run over here in a point in December 2018. He did actually make the running that day although he didn't in Ireland. The market will speak volumes about his chances, but on his first start for over 400 days it is hard to see him being good enough to win this.
Sam Cavallaro's season is no doubt based around the 2m race on Cheltenham Hunter Chase night and won't be good enough, whilst Asangy has trip and ground issues.
If The Dellercheckout was still 11/4 I would be putting him up, but 11/8 is too short in my view as he faces a couple of decent rivals. Monbeg Gold is certainly interesting, but again his price seems about right. Therefore at this stage Dieu Vivant is the bet. He was backed on course last time so was clearly fancied to go well and given he is only 7 he is open to progression still as well. The pointing form book gave him a rating of 123 for that run and The Dellercheckout's rating is 125. That suggests there isn't much between them and is over priced for me at 6/1 as I would have him around half that price.
Dieu Vivant 1pt @ 6/1 with Bet365