Hunter Chase - 4.30 Leicester

[Darran]

The first novice hunter chase of the season and it means we have our biggest field and most competitive race so far.

Kashmir Peak has been put in as favourite on the back of his 2nd to Minella Rocco at Warwick last time. He looked the winner as they left the back straight as well before the former Gold Cup 2nd stayed on strongly to take the spoils. He got given an RPR of 126 for that effort which clearly was just because he finished so close to Minella Rocco. His pointing rating is just 107 though and 3 of these have higher ratings than that with a couple that are yet to have ratings and one of those would be higher than that for sure. I think that Warwick form is suspect and the pointing rating is more where I would have him in the context of this race. Minella Rocco fans will be wanting to see him win though otherwise you can continue to pick holes in his form.

Alfstar has run in 4 hunter chases to date and has pulled up in 3 of them. That clearly isn't good, but connections are giving it another go and I can certainly see why. First of all lets deal with the hunter chase runs. The one where he did complete he was a very good 3rd at Bangor two years ago behind Aintree 4th Barrakilla and Wells De Lune who has won numerous times since. Last May he ran at Cheltenham on hunter chase night and he bled which is why he ran so disappointingly. On pointing form he has a superb chance. He has won 5 of his 15 starts and won a decent race at Bangor's point-to-point track on his seasonal debut. He clearly has been a hard horse to keep sound as he has only run 21 times, but the trip and ground are ideal for him and if he can finally put it altogether under rules he should go very close.

Asylo didn't get very far on his pointing debut for new connections last month so we have just his rules form to go on where he had 4 different trainers latterly with Dr Newland. He only won once for him last season when winning over hurdles off 118 at Uttoxeter in November 2018. He had a couple of good 2nds after that including over fences off 125 at Market Rasen last July. If in that sort of form he has a chance in this, but I do worry about the ground for him despite the fact he has won on soft because he has disappointed on testing ground every other time. Also he was poor in his last two starts for the Dr and horses don't usually improve after they leave him. If he won it wouldn't be a surprise, but equally he isn't for me.

One that is for me is O Ceallaigh who ran a huge race for me last week at Ludlow on his first start since December 2018. Given how keen he was out in front he did really well to finish as close to The Dellercheckout as he did given how long he had been off. Trip and ground certainly wont be an issue although the bounce factor might be. Sometimes horses after who run well after a long layoff do run disappointingly the next time. That for me is factored into the price though and I would have him as favourite myself on the back of the Ludlow run. 

Risk And Roll seemed to do everything he could to get beat whilst with Paul Nicholls which is obviously a worry as he often found little under pressure. He made a promising first run for new connections at Larkhill in a race run by Shantou Flyer. He was in contention until about 1/2m from home and he ended up being beaten 20L in 4th. He could be just the type of horse he might thrive in a small yard and I can see him winning races. I was tempted to put him up as a bet, but the trip especially on this ground puts me off. He seemed better over a shorter trip for Nicholls and the combination of the ground over this far might be enough for him. His Larkhill run backs that up as well although it could also be because he wasn't fit enough first time out.

On his form in the first couple of months of last season Irish Anthem would be favourite for this as he looked very good in his 3 wins. He got injured after that and had a year off. At the time the 2nd to Buck Dancing first time out at Alnwick looked a very good return, but Buck Dancing has run poorly in two hunter chase runs since and it doesn't look so good now. He was 23L behind The Dellercheckout on his next start and that obviously means he has work to do with O Ceallaigh. Then a week later he was 2nd at Bangor's point-to-point track when he was beaten 10L by a 33/1 shot in a weak race. Based on that he has work to do with Alfstar who won on the same card in a quicker time. I am always wary of his trainer's horses and he was talking this one up as a Foxhunter horse before he got injured. I can understand people taking a chance based on his old form, but I am happy to pass based on what he has done this season especially as he is now 12 and it is his first run under rules.

Waterloo Warrior certainly seems an improved horse since going pointing late last season and he has won 4 out of 5 starts. The problem is he hasn't really achieved a great deal so far in those wins and the one time he ran in a good race he was pulled up at Larkhill. Top jockey booked, but his pointing rating is just 97 and that for me shows how much he needs to find.

Magna Sam is the only hunter chase winner in the field when he won at Ludlow month. Obviously he was very lucky that day with Alcala falling and taking out Diue Vivant. Given they went no pace I think that form is suspect and it helped keep him in contention for as long as he did. I can't see him adding to that win here. 

Five Gold Bars was well backed to win his Restricted last time and it is interesting they are going straight into hunter chase company on his next start. He is the most unexposed runner in the field, but he does have to improve a fair bit to win this so he is a watching brief for me.

Berboru is still a maiden and looks out of his depth here.

As much as I fancy more than others you could give most of these some sort of chance. Risk And Roll just misses out as I am worried about the trip on this ground, but there was promise in the Larkhill run for sure. O Ceallaigh should be favourite for this based on his run last week for me so has to be the main selection. Obviously the bounce factor is a concern, but that is factored into the price for me. I am also giving Alfstar another chance to show his pointing form under rules. That point win last time is strong form and the 3rd at Bangor gives him a good chance.

O Ceallaigh 1.5pts @ 6/1 with Bet365

Alfstar 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365 (everyone else is as well but 365 are BOG if you can get it)

[yossa6133]

Asylo starting to look a bit big at 8/1, had excuses for the last couple of rules runs, lost shoes at Fontwell and jumped badly at Newton Abbot (made a right mess of the 1st). I think the 2nd at M.Rasen is as good as he is but that puts him thereabouts against mainly older legs.

[David Stephenson]

Thanks for the very in depth review of the race Darran, even though you missed the winner. Nicky Shepherd and Milo Herbert are bang in form at present, having won the last race at Chaddesley on Saturday. I thought that the Racing Post reviewer completely miss analysed the point to point debut of Risk And Roll at Larkhill, writing "much better could have been expected!" In fact he ran a blinder at 25/1 to be 4th behind three of the best ptp/hunter chasers in the country in Shantou Flyer, Green Winter and Salvatore, who incidentally won the Mens Open on Saturday! I don't know how much more could have been expected than that!

[Darran]

47 minutes ago, David Stephenson said:

Thanks for the very in depth review of the race Darran, even though you missed the winner. Nicky Shepherd and Milo Herbert are bang in form at present, having won the last race at Chaddesley on Saturday. I thought that the Racing Post reviewer completely miss analysed the point to point debut of Risk And Roll at Larkhill, writing "much better could have been expected!" In fact he ran a blinder at 25/1 to be 4th behind three of the best ptp/hunter chasers in the country in Shantou Flyer, Green Winter and Salvatore, who incidentally won the Mens Open on Saturday! I don't know how much more could have been expected than that!

Having watched the video it was clear he ran very well until race fitness told. If you hadn't seen the race you would just presume that being beaten 25L was a poor effort, but like you say it was anything but. I suspect my biggest regret of the season will be not backing him, but there we go and at least I highlighted how good a run it was which like you say was more than the RP did.