Darran Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just the 4 runners at Doncaster tomorrow and none of them can qualify for Cheltenham. Band Of Blood showed little at Musselburgh earlier in the month so I don't fancy him. Just A Par was 2nd at Bangor in a point last month, but he was well beaten and it suggested he is nowhere near a 135 horse at the moment. He might have needed the run, but at 13 chances are he is just firmly on the downgrade. So I think the race is between the two horses who finished 3rd and 4th at Taunton in the first hunter chase of the season. Captain Cattistock 4/7 favourite for is at the time of writing and he finished a couple of lengths behind Mustmeetalday at Taunton. He was a bit disappointing for me and as much as he might have got caught out by the sharpness of the track he also didn't jump great at times either. After two good runs in handicaps at Fontwell and Chepstow it was a drop in form and clearly qualification for Cheltenham took a back step after it. Back up in trip round here should suit better and if he can get back to the levels he showed earlier in the season he ought to win. I thought Mustmeetaladay was eye-catching at Taunton as he stayed on to great affect to nearly finish 2nd. A stiffer test of stamina should suit him as well, but he ran terribly at Wincanton which was disappointing. He does have an in and out look to his form though so maybe we shouldn't be surprised he put in a lesser performance that day. If he runs like that he hasn't got a hope, but given he beat Captain Cattistock fair and square at Taunton it is hard to see why he should be 9/2. That price more than factors in the fact he is inconsistent and there just shouldn't be the big difference in price for me. So hopefully he will be on a going day as he has to be the bet at the odds. Mustmeetaladay 1pt @ 9/2 with Betfair, Paddy Power, BetVictor and Betfred blueboy199, yossa6133 and Mindfulness 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 That could have been bad for Maxwell, looks like he landed ok though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Stephenson Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Thanks again for your amazingly thorough in-depth review of the race yesterday Darran, goodness me you really do get your head stuck in that form book! I realise that I am obviously saying this after the event, but in my opinion a good case could be made for backing Just A Par, especially at the amazingly generous SP odds of 10/1! I, in fact, backed Captain Cattistock at 4/7 BOG at Lads in the morning and I thought that the only likely danger was David Maxwell! Well as we all know, Maxwell fell off when leading at the 2nd last fence, leaving Just A Par to win easily. As I have said before, and to quote my hero Mark Hill again, THE PRICE IS EVERYTHING! Captain Cattistock was SP 2/5 fav and Just A Par was 10/1 SP. Therefore he was 25 times better value! (i.e. £5 on Cattistock wins just £2, whilst £5 on Just A Par wins £50!) And at those odds, and again admittedly in hindsight, Just A Par was in my opinion THE VALUE bet of the race! He was admittedly disappointingly in 2 runs under rules in 2019, but changed stables to Josh Guerriero, and this year went pointing. He was a fair 2nd on his debut, ridden again by Toby Wynne, beaten 15 lengths by Crest, ridden by Alex Edwards, at the Bangor-on-Dee point to point course on Jan 19th in Heavy going. So not disgraced, and he was likely to strip fitter yesterday. And he was closing on the favourite yesterday at the 2nd last, and well maybe have won anyway. Anyway, onwards and upwards. so roll on the 4.50 at Fontwell on Sunday! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yossa6133 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Definitely more useful before the race has run, my logic is usually exemplary after I know the result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Yes, we can all justify the winner after the race. I backed Captain Cattistock at 4/7, if I can beat the SP by this amount all the time then I know long term I will make a profit. I'm not a fan of these races, the jockeys look very ungainly on occasions. I have been backing these selections given Darren's record at the start of last season but the recent run has been very poor, 19 losers out of the last 20 and the winner was odds on. Hope his luck changes soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 10 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Yes, we can all justify the winner after the race. I backed Captain Cattistock at 4/7, if I can beat the SP by this amount all the time then I know long term I will make a profit. I'm not a fan of these races, the jockeys look very ungainly on occasions. I have been backing these selections given Darren's record at the start of last season but the recent run has been very poor, 19 losers out of the last 20 and the winner was odds on. Hope his luck changes soon. I agree just two winners so far this season is poor. 4 seasons ago it took me 11 races to back a winner and I ended that season over 100 points up which is the best season I have ever had. The first half of last season was the best run I have ever had and it was never going to be possible to keep that up long term. From memory once that good run had ended I think I only made a small profit for the rest of the season. I have always made a profit but will never guarantee one. Maybe I am due a bad one, but I remain confident come the end of May I will be showing a profit. It is always worse when the bad run happens at the start of a season as it means you are in minus figures and that is always hard for a tipster mentally. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 The worst thing that happened to Captain Cattistock is the fact his only serious rival departed so early on. After that point he was basically left with a solo and turning for home his concentration was beginning to wane. That came to a peak coming to 2 out when he wondered around and gave Maxwell no chance of staying in the saddle as he flew over the fence. Obviously we can't be 100% certain, but in my view he wasn't tired he was just idling and I think he still would have won. He will surely find a winning opportunity this season. Just A Par was the one to take advantage of the two market leaders departing and gave his jockey a first victory. I think he was hugely flattered by this and he will be lucky to find another opportunity that falls in his lap. Mustmeetalady departed at an early stage which was a shame for us as well as Maxwell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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