Darran

I'm looking forward to the 2.10 at Worcester this afternoon as for the first time a horse I have a share in looks set to be favourite for a race. You may remember Intrepide Sud ran in the point to point bumper at Aintree when ridden by Gina. The horse was very keen and she struggled to control him which takes some doing given how strong she is. It was actually a surprise that he was that keen and in the end she just had to let him stride on. I have seen a clip of Gina talking after the race and she said that he must be a good horse to run like that and not be beaten all that far. I know I said I didn't think the race was that strong, but he clearly has the potential to be much better than that run showed and in all honestly the race this afternoon looks even worse on paper. He has gone to Fergal O'Brien and he really likes the horse as does Paddy Brennan after he rode him in a piece of work. If he can translate his home work to the racecourse I do think he is the most likely winner of the race. Obviously the concern is he is too keen again and he might need a bit more time to learn to settle, but he wasn't keen in his point victory at Garthorpe and he's not keen on the gallops so hopefully it was just a one off at Aintree.   Western Safire was the other one at the head of the market but she is now a non-runner. Even so it does look like she's the main danger. Putalinthroughit makes is a newcomer but he was a cheap purchase so hard to think he is anything special, but clearly its a weak race so he might be able to run well. Milfolhas Has makes his debut for the Bowen's having run in a couple of points last year. First up he was 6th in a bumper and then he pulled up in a maiden over 3m. He did show a glimmer of promise there and clearly he's gone to a good yard, but I don't think he's shown as much Intrepide Sud so he needs to have improved in the last year to beat him in my view. Orange Gina has finished 4th at big prices in bumpers in 2020 and 2021. The first she was well beaten, but last time finished much closer having led. That was a bad race though and again the fact she led at a slow pace probably means she was flattered. Tampico Rocco was 6th in this race last on his only ever start and although well beaten he did show a little promise. For some reason Charlie My Boy was been backed from 200/1 into single figures. He's been stuffed in all 3 starts and has only beaten one horse home so god knows whose backing it as there is nothing to recommend him at all, but he has just become a non-runner which seems a bit suspicious to me.   So all in all it looks a terrible contest and I unless he's too keen for his own good again then I struggle to see how anything will be good enough to beat if he replicates his home work. Shame the price isn't bigger, but it is hardly a surprise given how bad the race is.   Intrepid Sud @ Evs with most bookies

I'm looking forward to the 2.10 at Worcester this afternoon as for the first time a horse I have a share in looks set to be favourite for a race. You may remember Intrepide Sud ran in the point to point bumper at Aintree when ridden by Gina. The horse was very keen and she struggled to control him which takes some doing given how strong she is. It was actually a surprise that he was that keen and in the end she just had to let him stride on. I have seen a clip of Gina talking after the race and she said that he must be a good horse to run like that and not be beaten all that far. I know I said I didn't think the race was that strong, but he clearly has the potential to be much better than that run showed and in all honestly the race this afternoon looks even worse on paper. He has gone to Fergal O'Brien and he really likes the horse as does Paddy Brennan after he rode him in a piece of work. If he can translate his home work to the racecourse I do think he is the most likely winner of the race. Obviously the concern is he is too keen again and he might need a bit more time to learn to settle, but he wasn't keen in his point victory at Garthorpe and he's not keen on the gallops so hopefully it was just a one off at Aintree.   Western Safire was the other one at the head of the market but she is now a non-runner. Even so it does look like she's the main danger. Putalinthroughit makes is a newcomer but he was a cheap purchase so hard to think he is anything special, but clearly its a weak race so he might be able to run well. Milfolhas Has makes his debut for the Bowen's having run in a couple of points last year. First up he was 6th in a bumper and then he pulled up in a maiden over 3m. He did show a glimmer of promise there and clearly he's gone to a good yard, but I don't think he's shown as much Intrepide Sud so he needs to have improved in the last year to beat him in my view. Orange Gina has finished 4th at big prices in bumpers in 2020 and 2021. The first she was well beaten, but last time finished much closer having led. That was a bad race though and again the fact she led at a slow pace probably means she was flattered. Tampico Rocco was 6th in this race last on his only ever start and although well beaten he did show a little promise. For some reason Charlie My Boy was been backed from 200/1 into single figures. He's been stuffed in all 3 starts and has only beaten one horse home so god knows whose backing it as there is nothing to recommend him at all, but he has just become a non-runner which seems a bit suspicious to me.   So all in all it looks a terrible contest and I unless he's too keen for his own good again then I struggle to see how anything will be good enough to beat if he replicates his home work. Shame the price isn't bigger, but it is hardly a surprise given how bad the race is.   Intrepid Sud @ Evs with most bookies

I'm looking forward to the 2.10 at Worcester this afternoon as for the first time a horse I have a share in looks set to be favourite for a race. You may remember Intrepide Sud ran in the point to point bumper at Aintree when ridden by Gina. The horse was very keen and she struggled to control him which takes some doing given how strong she is. It was actually a surprise that he was that keen and in the end she just had to let him stride on. I have seen a clip of Gina talking after the race and she said that he must be a good horse to run like that and not be beaten all that far. I know I said I didn't think the race was that strong, but he clearly has the potential to be much better than that run showed and in all honestly the race this afternoon looks even worse on paper. He has gone to Fergal O'Brien and he really likes the horse as does Paddy Brennan after he rode him in a piece of work. If he can translate his home work to the racecourse I do think he is the most likely winner of the race. Obviously the concern is he is too keen again and he might need a bit more time to learn to settle, but he wasn't keen in his point victory at Garthorpe and he's not keen on the gallops so hopefully it was just a one off at Aintree.   Western Safire was the other one at the head of the market but she is now a non-runner. Even so it does look like she's the main danger. Putalinthroughit makes is a newcomer but he was a cheap purchase so hard to think he is anything special, but clearly its a weak race so he might be able to run well. Milfolhas Has makes his debut for the Bowen's having run in a couple of points last year. First up he was 6th in a bumper and then he pulled up in a maiden over 3m. He did show a glimmer of promise there and clearly he's gone to a good yard, but I don't think he's shown as much Intrepide Sud so he needs to have improved in the last year to beat him in my view. Orange Gina has finished 4th at big prices in bumpers in 2020 and 2021. The first she was well beaten, but last time finished much closer having led. That was a bad race though and again the fact she led at a slow pace probably means she was flattered. Tampico Rocco was 6th in this race last on his only ever start and although well beaten he did show a little promise. For some reason Charlie My Boy was been backed from 200/1 into single figures. He's been stuffed in all 3 starts and has only beaten one horse home so god knows whose backing it as there is nothing to recommend him at all, but he has just become a non-runner which seems a bit suspicious to me.   So all in all it looks a terrible contest and I unless he's too keen for his own good again then I struggle to see how anything will be good enough to beat if he replicates his home work. Shame the price isn't bigger, but it is hardly a surprise given how bad the race is.   Intrepid Sud @ Evs with most bookies

I'm looking forward to the 2.10 at Worcester this afternoon as for the first time a horse I have a share in looks set to be favourite for a race. You may remember Intrepide Sud ran in the point to point bumper at Aintree when ridden by Gina. The horse was very keen and she struggled to control him which takes some doing given how strong she is. It was actually a surprise that he was that keen and in the end she just had to let him stride on. I have seen a clip of Gina talking after the race and she said that he must be a good horse to run like that and not be beaten all that far. I know I said I didn't think the race was that strong, but he clearly has the potential to be much better than that run showed and in all honestly the race this afternoon looks even worse on paper. He has gone to Fergal O'Brien and he really likes the horse as does Paddy Brennan after he rode him in a piece of work. If he can translate his home work to the racecourse I do think he is the most likely winner of the race. Obviously the concern is he is too keen again and he might need a bit more time to learn to settle, but he wasn't keen in his point victory at Garthorpe and he's not keen on the gallops so hopefully it was just a one off at Aintree.   Western Safire was the other one at the head of the market but she is now a non-runner. Even so it does look like she's the main danger. Putalinthroughit makes is a newcomer but he was a cheap purchase so hard to think he is anything special, but clearly its a weak race so he might be able to run well. Milfolhas Has makes his debut for the Bowen's having run in a couple of points last year. First up he was 6th in a bumper and then he pulled up in a maiden over 3m. He did show a glimmer of promise there and clearly he's gone to a good yard, but I don't think he's shown as much Intrepide Sud so he needs to have improved in the last year to beat him in my view. Orange Gina has finished 4th at big prices in bumpers in 2020 and 2021. The first she was well beaten, but last time finished much closer having led. That was a bad race though and again the fact she led at a slow pace probably means she was flattered. Tampico Rocco was 6th in this race last on his only ever start and although well beaten he did show a little promise. For some reason Charlie My Boy was been backed from 200/1 into single figures. He's been stuffed in all 3 starts and has only beaten one horse home so god knows whose backing it as there is nothing to recommend him at all, but he has just become a non-runner which seems a bit suspicious to me.   So all in all it looks a terrible contest and I unless he's too keen for his own good again then I struggle to see how anything will be good enough to beat if he replicates his home work. Shame the price isn't bigger, but it is hardly a surprise given how bad the race is.   Intrepid Sud @ Evs with most bookies

Also if you bet via Bet365, Coral, Betfred or Betfair Sportsbook then you get a 1pt for every pound you bet. Certainly recommend signing up if you haven't and you want to go racing. 

Can we all be very careful about what we write on here please. I’ve taken the decision to delete one post because quite frankly it was bang out of order and untrue.  

Onto Warrnambool we go with 5 jumps races on Sunday including a couple of features over hurdles and fences.
Race 1
Probably one of the better maiden hurdles we have seen of late here and Chains Of Honour is the fairly short price favourite. It's easy to see why based on his flat form and he won a BM70 at Moonee Valley in November. His only flat run this prep was last month when a good 2nd from the front at Swan Hill. Prior to that he had 3 hurdle trials and I watched the last of those at Traralgon. His jockey tried to get him to settle in behind horses, but he didn't jump great and in the end he just let him stride on and he jumped much better. My concern about him for me is the Heavy 10 ground which is basically an unknown as he's only seen a heavy track once and that was in the ATC Derby at Randwick. I also just wonder if he might end up burning himself out as we saw with Constantinople here last month so whilst he's more than good enough to win there could be value in taking him on. Dr Dependable was 2nd last week to Gravistas, but I think this race is stronger. Flying Pierro was 2nd over course and distance in that Constantinople race, but I'm not sure that form is trust worth myself. I actually think Killourney will reverse the form as if he is ridden with a bit more restraint then he will see it out better. Also they are adding headgear which the jockey said he needed after that 3rd. Yulong Rising has finished 2nd and 3rd to Onset in a couple of handicaps, but this first try in maiden company might actually end up being a tougher ask. God knows what happened to Hakuna Matata last week at Casterton. She was a huge disappointment and I'm a bit surprised they are running her on the 7 day back up. I will be really annoyed if she does win and if it had been a longer gap between races I might have chanced her, but this is a stronger race than her other 3 jumps runs this prep. There is another interesting newcomer as well in the shape of Hostar. I thought he did really well in his hurdle trial a couple of weeks ago and he's been running well on the flat in a couple of BM64's. Crucially we know he likes heavy ground and he is an interesting contender.
So Chains Of Honour might be good enough, but there are enough concerns for me to take him on at short odds. Killourney is certainly good enough to win a race like this and I think he paid for chasing Constantinople last time so hopefully his rider will ride him a bit more conservatively here. So he's one bet and I will also back Hostar as well because he's in good form on the flat and seemed to love jumping hurdles in his trial.
Killourney 1pt @ 11/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power
Hostar 1pt @ 17/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power

Race 2
A fascinating contender in this is the top one Stern Idol who is an ex-French hurdler. He won at Auteuil last May and finished 6th in a Listed Race that September on his last start in France. He's had 3 hurdle trials in Oz and I like the way he jumps this style of hurdle. He had a flat run 3 weeks ago at Swan Hill and ran a perfectly respectable 8th. The one slight worry is the Heavy 10 conditions although I suspect it will be fairly similar to what he has raced on before in France. It seems sensible to claim off him as he has top weight and his jockey has ridden him in his trials. 
The favourite is Twin Spinner who was very impressive at Sale a month ago on his first jumps start in Australia having come over from New Zealand. He's set his own pace at in front and when he quickened it up he put the race to bed in style. He certainly faces stiffer competition here though.
Sky Hero won over course and distance last time, but I feel that Constantinople set the race up for a closer and Flying Pierro was 2nd which also puts a dampener on the form for me. Mighty Oasis had to work hard to win the other division of the maiden hurdle that day in a time that was 6 seconds slower although his closing 600m was 6 seconds quicker. It was a deserved win as he had 3 2nds to his name prior to that.
I'm going to take a chance with Stern Idol. He's with the right connections and there is a strong chance he has shown stronger form in France than the others have shown in Australia and New Zealand. He jumps Australian hurdles well based on his trials and he looks an exciting horse going forward.
Stern Idol 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365
Race 3
The feature hurdle on the card and it looks a strong contest. Big Blue is the favourite and it was good to see him bounce back to form at Hamilton last time when he was an impressive winner. He had finished last over course and distance prior to that. I think this is tougher, but we know he has the back class to win this. What also helps him here is that because of Bee Tee Junior having such a high rating he only has to carry 66kg so he has an obvious chance. Speaking of Bee Tee Junior it is great to see the Grand National Chase winner in 2020 back over obstacles after missing all of last year. He's had 3 flat runs and 3 trials, but I'm happy to see how he gets on here against some hard fit rivals especially as his last flat run was 45 days ago. Onset has done us proud this season and was gutsy again last week. She was 3rd behind Big Blue at Hamilton and I just can't see her reversing that form so I will not be backing her here. Blandford Lad picked up Constantinople at Sandown and was 2nd in the Champion Novice here in May. He's got a chance. Count Zero has done well since going over hurdles and was a decent 2nd here last time after winning his first two. Tolemac and Fort Charles aren't completely out of it either, but the one I am putting up is St Arnicca. He started off his season with a win here in March before disappointing a little when 4th at Pakenham. That was behind Saunter Boy and he was much close to him in the Galleywood when only being beaten by 0.4L. Saunter Boy is the best hurdler we have seen this season so to push him so close was a good effort and he has since been a good 3rd on the flat at Swan Hill. It's a trappy race, but he looks the value play at the prices.
St Arnicca 1pt @ 11/2 with William Hill and Bet365
Race 4
We have Cheners and Dewrinkler coming out of the same race at Sale a month ago where they were 2nd and 3rd just behind Runaway. I don't think that form is overly strong though as Runaway set a pretty fast pace and they still couldn't get past him. I also think Valac would have won had he not unseated. It could be said that Dewrinkler will strip fitter for the run as it was his first of the prep, but he was ridden to stay the trip and he now goes over even further on more testing ground so that has to be a worry with him. I've put up Getting Leggie every start this prep and whilst the first two were promising, I thought he was poor in the Australian Chase last time. He's not been seen since so maybe something was up and to be fair he was given a strange ride, but he was well beaten in the end. He has the class to win this, but I am passing him over this time. Laylite has had to chase Yulong Place the last twice and hasn't got close either time. This should be easier, but I think Under The Bridge can reverse form with him and I make him the selection. He does have a problem with the 2nd last here though as he fell at it in May and then last time he made a bad blunder and he went from travelling well to coming under pressure. He finished 3rd in the end, but if he can jump the 2nd last better this time then I think he's the one to beat.
Under The Bridge 1pt @ 9/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power
Race 5
Flying Agent was turned over in this last year when a long odds on fav and he could only finish 4th. he had won the Brierly last year, but after that his jumps form really didn't hit the heights that it had done in the past. If he is back to his best then he can easily win this. He's had a couple of decent enough flat runs this prep and has won a couple of chase trials including beating Yulong Place by a length (no video footage). A couple of weeks ago he bolted up in a trial here so the signs are promising, but he will face a stiffer test here. Britannicus is the fav and he comes here on the back of winning the Australian Chase in May beating his stablemate Elvison. He has had the one trial since then on the same day as Flying Agent and won his in a time 11 seconds slower. My big concern though is the testing ground as he's not even hit the place in 4 starts on a heavy track. Yulong Place is very much the up and comer. He was pretty average over hurdles, but has been devastating in 2 chase starts. First off he won by 25L and although Laylite got close over course and distance last time it was still a dominate victory. He clearly loves a Heavy 10 track and although this is another step up he gets 5kgs from the other two leading contenders. I think he can win this and make it 3/3 over fences although I will cover Flying Agent as if he returns to his best he is easily the main danger as I can't have Britannicus on the ground.
Yulong Prince 2pts @ 2/1 with everyone
Flying Agent 1pt @ 5/2 with William Hill

Quite how Bet365 made The Big Sting a 6/1 shot for the 1.30 at Worcester this afternoon I don't know. He's 6/8 in points the season just gone so that alone made me think he would be a fairly short priced favourite. Then when you look at the fact in his last one he stuffed Port O'Clock by 20L and that one landed an Exeter hunter chase in April and went very close to landing a handicap at Worcester a couple of weeks ago off 100. The Big Sting has a mark of 90 for this race so that form alone gives him a massive chance here. His other form is good and even the 2 2nds are very good pieces of form in the context of this race. One of the horses who beat him was Indirocco who we know ran well in a couple of hunter chases this year. He could have been found a weaker race to be fair as a few of these come here in good form and the main danger for me is probably Ballymilan who looks like there could well be more to come having won his last two. Basically though if The Big Sting shows his pointing form then he really ought to win and I still think the price is value.   The Big Sting @ 7/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor

Quite how Bet365 made The Big Sting a 6/1 shot for the 1.30 at Worcester this afternoon I don't know. He's 6/8 in points the season just gone so that alone made me think he would be a fairly short priced favourite. Then when you look at the fact in his last one he stuffed Port O'Clock by 20L and that one landed an Exeter hunter chase in April and went very close to landing a handicap at Worcester a couple of weeks ago off 100. The Big Sting has a mark of 90 for this race so that form alone gives him a massive chance here. His other form is good and even the 2 2nds are very good pieces of form in the context of this race. One of the horses who beat him was Indirocco who we know ran well in a couple of hunter chases this year. He could have been found a weaker race to be fair as a few of these come here in good form and the main danger for me is probably Ballymilan who looks like there could well be more to come having won his last two. Basically though if The Big Sting shows his pointing form then he really ought to win and I still think the price is value.   The Big Sting @ 7/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor

Quite how Bet365 made The Big Sting a 6/1 shot for the 1.30 at Worcester this afternoon I don't know. He's 6/8 in points the season just gone so that alone made me think he would be a fairly short priced favourite. Then when you look at the fact in his last one he stuffed Port O'Clock by 20L and that one landed an Exeter hunter chase in April and went very close to landing a handicap at Worcester a couple of weeks ago off 100. The Big Sting has a mark of 90 for this race so that form alone gives him a massive chance here. His other form is good and even the 2 2nds are very good pieces of form in the context of this race. One of the horses who beat him was Indirocco who we know ran well in a couple of hunter chases this year. He could have been found a weaker race to be fair as a few of these come here in good form and the main danger for me is probably Ballymilan who looks like there could well be more to come having won his last two. Basically though if The Big Sting shows his pointing form then he really ought to win and I still think the price is value.   The Big Sting @ 7/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor

Quite how Bet365 made The Big Sting a 6/1 shot for the 1.30 at Worcester this afternoon I don't know. He's 6/8 in points the season just gone so that alone made me think he would be a fairly short priced favourite. Then when you look at the fact in his last one he stuffed Port O'Clock by 20L and that one landed an Exeter hunter chase in April and went very close to landing a handicap at Worcester a couple of weeks ago off 100. The Big Sting has a mark of 90 for this race so that form alone gives him a massive chance here. His other form is good and even the 2 2nds are very good pieces of form in the context of this race. One of the horses who beat him was Indirocco who we know ran well in a couple of hunter chases this year. He could have been found a weaker race to be fair as a few of these come here in good form and the main danger for me is probably Ballymilan who looks like there could well be more to come having won his last two. Basically though if The Big Sting shows his pointing form then he really ought to win and I still think the price is value.   The Big Sting @ 7/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor

Quite how Bet365 made The Big Sting a 6/1 shot for the 1.30 at Worcester this afternoon I don't know. He's 6/8 in points the season just gone so that alone made me think he would be a fairly short priced favourite. Then when you look at the fact in his last one he stuffed Port O'Clock by 20L and that one landed an Exeter hunter chase in April and went very close to landing a handicap at Worcester a couple of weeks ago off 100. The Big Sting has a mark of 90 for this race so that form alone gives him a massive chance here. His other form is good and even the 2 2nds are very good pieces of form in the context of this race. One of the horses who beat him was Indirocco who we know ran well in a couple of hunter chases this year. He could have been found a weaker race to be fair as a few of these come here in good form and the main danger for me is probably Ballymilan who looks like there could well be more to come having won his last two. Basically though if The Big Sting shows his pointing form then he really ought to win and I still think the price is value.   The Big Sting @ 7/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor

Quite how Bet365 made The Big Sting a 6/1 shot for the 1.30 at Worcester this afternoon I don't know. He's 6/8 in points the season just gone so that alone made me think he would be a fairly short priced favourite. Then when you look at the fact in his last one he stuffed Port O'Clock by 20L and that one landed an Exeter hunter chase in April and went very close to landing a handicap at Worcester a couple of weeks ago off 100. The Big Sting has a mark of 90 for this race so that form alone gives him a massive chance here. His other form is good and even the 2 2nds are very good pieces of form in the context of this race. One of the horses who beat him was Indirocco who we know ran well in a couple of hunter chases this year. He could have been found a weaker race to be fair as a few of these come here in good form and the main danger for me is probably Ballymilan who looks like there could well be more to come having won his last two. Basically though if The Big Sting shows his pointing form then he really ought to win and I still think the price is value.   The Big Sting @ 7/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor

A couple of winners last week including the Nap. We have action most Sunday's now between now and the end of August and there are 3 more races at Casterton in the early hours of the morning. Probably my favourite jumps track in Oz because I love the hedge fences they have their and well worth checking out the steeplechase race if you don't usually watch the tips and just look at the result.
Race 1
As usual we start with the maiden hurdle and I do like the look of Hakuna Matata. She was 2nd here on the first hurdles start this prep and the winner Onset has boosted the form since as has the 3rd Dubawi Prince. A couple of weeks after that she went to Hamilton and tried to make all, but wasn't able to see it out and was beaten by Fort Charles who ran well last week. They look two really solid 2nd places in the context of this race and I think she can get a deserved hurdles success. Cappellani has certainly improved for his first hurdles start in Australia when he was behind Hakuna Matata in 5th place over course and distance. He was then 3rd at Hamilton behind Dubawi Prince and then 3rd last week behind Mighty Oasis when he was doing his best work late and was only beaten a couple of lengths. That suggests stepping back up to this trip should suit and he is certainly a danger. Gravistas ran OK at Sale and has place claims on his 3rd at Hamilton the start before. The other one to mention is good old Zedstar who has had 10 starts over jumps now for 4 2nds and 4 3rds. He was disappointing on his debut over fences at Hamilton and wasn't great on the flat at Geelong last week. He will surely win a maiden hurdle at some point, but he's clearly a frustrating horse. I think the price on Hakuna Matata is too big and she makes plenty of appeal.
Hakuna Matata 2pts @ 3/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral and Ladbrokes
Race 2
Tamarack was 2nd in the Australian Hurdle last time, but I'm not sure the strength of that race is that good behind the very good winner Saunter Boy. He ran over course and distance before that and was beaten 7L into 3rd place. I certainly think he's a possible winner, but I am going to look elsewhere. Cheners was 2nd over fences last time and was just beaten by Runaway. He does tend to run his race, but he has won just twice in 27 jumps starts so as much as he has place claims in a race like this I'm not sure he is going to win. Onset has done us well this season having won twice when we have been on including last time at Sale. The other win was when she beat Hakuna Matata over course and distance. I was impressed with her win last time and although she wasn't quite as good in the two runs in between those two wins she can win a race like this. She beat Yulong Rising last time, but I can't see the form being reversed although it was that one's first jumps run so he could build on it. The most likely winner for me though is Tolemac who has done very well over hurdles this prep. He was just in front of Onset at Warrnambool when 2nd and he was 2nd over course and distance when just getting caught late on. Mighty Oasis was 2nd to him at Hamilton and obviously he franked the form last week. He goes into handicaps for the first time, but he has a good chance of making it a winning one. So Tolemac is the main bet, but I will have a saver on Onset as well.
Tolemac 2pts @ 7/5 with Bet365
Onset 0.5pts @ 4/1 with everyone
Race 3
Elvison was so impressive when bolting up over course and distance last month that I have to be with him here. Historic was 25L back in 2nd and he reposes here having followed that run up with a win, but I can't see him reversing form if Elvison is in top form. Elvison ran on the 7 day back up in the Australian Chase, but his trainer said before the race that he was only running him there because it was a small field that wasn't very strong. He ran well enough to finish 2nd to his stablemate Britannicus and the month off will have done him good no doubt. He jumped so well over the hedge fences and that course form could well prove crucial here. Police Camp has come out which is a shame as it means Elvison is odds on now. Police Camp won a trial at Warrnambool on Tuesday and in that trial he beat Te Kahu who is going to be making his Australian debut here. In New Zealand he won 3 times over fences including over 6200m on his last start in October. Now he has won over 3500m, but when watching that trial he seemed to lack a bit of toe and even though this is 3800m I just wonder if he is going to come into his own when seeing a real test of stamina. He is with the right training team with Maher & Eustace so I certainly respect him, but I think Elvison can add to his course and distance win last month and even though he's odds on I think he still offers value at 8/11.
Elvison 3pts @ 8/11 with William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes

Cartmel's opener this afternoon sees Grageelagh Girl look to right the wrong of the last hunter chase of the season. I'm sure you all remember the weight cloth coming off after the last fence and thus she had to be disqualified. She would have won anyway and I did say in the race review that it wouldn't surprise me if her trainer decided to take advantage of the handicap mark. I also mentioned I didn't think the handicapper could touch the mark given the mark of the 2nd and that is exactly what has happened. She goes back over hurdles tomorrow and she has good hurdles form. She last ran over them at Bangor in 2020 and finished a close 3rd off 108 so even on that run the mark of 102 in a lower grade makes her look well handicapped. She's clearly in very good form at the moment and I think the drop in trip will help as I was worried she wouldn't stay in the final hunter chase of the season. She was entered at Newton Abbot earlier in the week, but I suspect Fergal has chosen this race as his daughter can take the ride against fellow amateur riders again. She's been entered over fences next week so a quick follow up wouldn't be a shock either. This is a very weak contest and I can only really make a case for the two horses who won the 2 divisions of a handicap hurdle over course and distance last month. Dan Gun has only gone up 3lbs but he wasn't quite as impressive as On We Go who has been in great form for her new yard. She's gone up 9lbs, but I still think there could be more to come and she is the biggest danger for me. I will probably end up having a saver on her given I think she might drift as I suspect Grageelagh Girl will be well backed. Sometimes you see something surprising in a race like this, but I'd be a bit surprised if that happened here given the strong claims of those two.   Grageelagh Girl @ 7/2 with Bet365   In the 2nd race I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Watch Law. Now the Irish horses at the head of the market might just be too good for him, but I have watched his last point run and I think he has a fair bit of ability. He jumped pretty terribly for most of the race and was still only just beaten. He clearly has an engine as they pulled a long way clear of the others. Hopefully he can jump hurdles better because if he does I think he might be capable of out running his odds at the very least.   Watch Law ew @ 20/1 with Bet365   In the 3.40 I think Post No Bills is worth backing e/w. His pointing form suggests that his handicap mark is one he could well win off and he makes his chasing debut in a pretty poor race this afternoon. He put his best run yet over hurdles last time at Fakenham and I think he can improve again for going over fences. Bookies are going 4 places and I would be a bit surprised if he didn't finish in the first 4 at least. Darius Des Sources is a danger as a wind op seems to have helped him based on his last two efforts and the Perth 3rd last time was his best run in ages. The main danger though is the favourite Mah Mate Bob who ran really well here last time when 2nd in a race he won last season. He's still 11lbs below that winning mark and down into Class 5 company he surely will go close again.   Post No Bills ew @ 13/2 with Bet365

Cartmel's opener this afternoon sees Grageelagh Girl look to right the wrong of the last hunter chase of the season. I'm sure you all remember the weight cloth coming off after the last fence and thus she had to be disqualified. She would have won anyway and I did say in the race review that it wouldn't surprise me if her trainer decided to take advantage of the handicap mark. I also mentioned I didn't think the handicapper could touch the mark given the mark of the 2nd and that is exactly what has happened. She goes back over hurdles tomorrow and she has good hurdles form. She last ran over them at Bangor in 2020 and finished a close 3rd off 108 so even on that run the mark of 102 in a lower grade makes her look well handicapped. She's clearly in very good form at the moment and I think the drop in trip will help as I was worried she wouldn't stay in the final hunter chase of the season. She was entered at Newton Abbot earlier in the week, but I suspect Fergal has chosen this race as his daughter can take the ride against fellow amateur riders again. She's been entered over fences next week so a quick follow up wouldn't be a shock either. This is a very weak contest and I can only really make a case for the two horses who won the 2 divisions of a handicap hurdle over course and distance last month. Dan Gun has only gone up 3lbs but he wasn't quite as impressive as On We Go who has been in great form for her new yard. She's gone up 9lbs, but I still think there could be more to come and she is the biggest danger for me. I will probably end up having a saver on her given I think she might drift as I suspect Grageelagh Girl will be well backed. Sometimes you see something surprising in a race like this, but I'd be a bit surprised if that happened here given the strong claims of those two.   Grageelagh Girl @ 7/2 with Bet365   In the 2nd race I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Watch Law. Now the Irish horses at the head of the market might just be too good for him, but I have watched his last point run and I think he has a fair bit of ability. He jumped pretty terribly for most of the race and was still only just beaten. He clearly has an engine as they pulled a long way clear of the others. Hopefully he can jump hurdles better because if he does I think he might be capable of out running his odds at the very least.   Watch Law ew @ 20/1 with Bet365   In the 3.40 I think Post No Bills is worth backing e/w. His pointing form suggests that his handicap mark is one he could well win off and he makes his chasing debut in a pretty poor race this afternoon. He put his best run yet over hurdles last time at Fakenham and I think he can improve again for going over fences. Bookies are going 4 places and I would be a bit surprised if he didn't finish in the first 4 at least. Darius Des Sources is a danger as a wind op seems to have helped him based on his last two efforts and the Perth 3rd last time was his best run in ages. The main danger though is the favourite Mah Mate Bob who ran really well here last time when 2nd in a race he won last season. He's still 11lbs below that winning mark and down into Class 5 company he surely will go close again.   Post No Bills ew @ 13/2 with Bet365

Cartmel's opener this afternoon sees Grageelagh Girl look to right the wrong of the last hunter chase of the season. I'm sure you all remember the weight cloth coming off after the last fence and thus she had to be disqualified. She would have won anyway and I did say in the race review that it wouldn't surprise me if her trainer decided to take advantage of the handicap mark. I also mentioned I didn't think the handicapper could touch the mark given the mark of the 2nd and that is exactly what has happened. She goes back over hurdles tomorrow and she has good hurdles form. She last ran over them at Bangor in 2020 and finished a close 3rd off 108 so even on that run the mark of 102 in a lower grade makes her look well handicapped. She's clearly in very good form at the moment and I think the drop in trip will help as I was worried she wouldn't stay in the final hunter chase of the season. She was entered at Newton Abbot earlier in the week, but I suspect Fergal has chosen this race as his daughter can take the ride against fellow amateur riders again. She's been entered over fences next week so a quick follow up wouldn't be a shock either. This is a very weak contest and I can only really make a case for the two horses who won the 2 divisions of a handicap hurdle over course and distance last month. Dan Gun has only gone up 3lbs but he wasn't quite as impressive as On We Go who has been in great form for her new yard. She's gone up 9lbs, but I still think there could be more to come and she is the biggest danger for me. I will probably end up having a saver on her given I think she might drift as I suspect Grageelagh Girl will be well backed. Sometimes you see something surprising in a race like this, but I'd be a bit surprised if that happened here given the strong claims of those two.   Grageelagh Girl @ 7/2 with Bet365   In the 2nd race I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Watch Law. Now the Irish horses at the head of the market might just be too good for him, but I have watched his last point run and I think he has a fair bit of ability. He jumped pretty terribly for most of the race and was still only just beaten. He clearly has an engine as they pulled a long way clear of the others. Hopefully he can jump hurdles better because if he does I think he might be capable of out running his odds at the very least.   Watch Law ew @ 20/1 with Bet365   In the 3.40 I think Post No Bills is worth backing e/w. His pointing form suggests that his handicap mark is one he could well win off and he makes his chasing debut in a pretty poor race this afternoon. He put his best run yet over hurdles last time at Fakenham and I think he can improve again for going over fences. Bookies are going 4 places and I would be a bit surprised if he didn't finish in the first 4 at least. Darius Des Sources is a danger as a wind op seems to have helped him based on his last two efforts and the Perth 3rd last time was his best run in ages. The main danger though is the favourite Mah Mate Bob who ran really well here last time when 2nd in a race he won last season. He's still 11lbs below that winning mark and down into Class 5 company he surely will go close again.   Post No Bills ew @ 13/2 with Bet365

Cartmel's opener this afternoon sees Grageelagh Girl look to right the wrong of the last hunter chase of the season. I'm sure you all remember the weight cloth coming off after the last fence and thus she had to be disqualified. She would have won anyway and I did say in the race review that it wouldn't surprise me if her trainer decided to take advantage of the handicap mark. I also mentioned I didn't think the handicapper could touch the mark given the mark of the 2nd and that is exactly what has happened. She goes back over hurdles tomorrow and she has good hurdles form. She last ran over them at Bangor in 2020 and finished a close 3rd off 108 so even on that run the mark of 102 in a lower grade makes her look well handicapped. She's clearly in very good form at the moment and I think the drop in trip will help as I was worried she wouldn't stay in the final hunter chase of the season. She was entered at Newton Abbot earlier in the week, but I suspect Fergal has chosen this race as his daughter can take the ride against fellow amateur riders again. She's been entered over fences next week so a quick follow up wouldn't be a shock either. This is a very weak contest and I can only really make a case for the two horses who won the 2 divisions of a handicap hurdle over course and distance last month. Dan Gun has only gone up 3lbs but he wasn't quite as impressive as On We Go who has been in great form for her new yard. She's gone up 9lbs, but I still think there could be more to come and she is the biggest danger for me. I will probably end up having a saver on her given I think she might drift as I suspect Grageelagh Girl will be well backed. Sometimes you see something surprising in a race like this, but I'd be a bit surprised if that happened here given the strong claims of those two.   Grageelagh Girl @ 7/2 with Bet365   In the 2nd race I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Watch Law. Now the Irish horses at the head of the market might just be too good for him, but I have watched his last point run and I think he has a fair bit of ability. He jumped pretty terribly for most of the race and was still only just beaten. He clearly has an engine as they pulled a long way clear of the others. Hopefully he can jump hurdles better because if he does I think he might be capable of out running his odds at the very least.   Watch Law ew @ 20/1 with Bet365   In the 3.40 I think Post No Bills is worth backing e/w. His pointing form suggests that his handicap mark is one he could well win off and he makes his chasing debut in a pretty poor race this afternoon. He put his best run yet over hurdles last time at Fakenham and I think he can improve again for going over fences. Bookies are going 4 places and I would be a bit surprised if he didn't finish in the first 4 at least. Darius Des Sources is a danger as a wind op seems to have helped him based on his last two efforts and the Perth 3rd last time was his best run in ages. The main danger though is the favourite Mah Mate Bob who ran really well here last time when 2nd in a race he won last season. He's still 11lbs below that winning mark and down into Class 5 company he surely will go close again.   Post No Bills ew @ 13/2 with Bet365

Cartmel's opener this afternoon sees Grageelagh Girl look to right the wrong of the last hunter chase of the season. I'm sure you all remember the weight cloth coming off after the last fence and thus she had to be disqualified. She would have won anyway and I did say in the race review that it wouldn't surprise me if her trainer decided to take advantage of the handicap mark. I also mentioned I didn't think the handicapper could touch the mark given the mark of the 2nd and that is exactly what has happened. She goes back over hurdles tomorrow and she has good hurdles form. She last ran over them at Bangor in 2020 and finished a close 3rd off 108 so even on that run the mark of 102 in a lower grade makes her look well handicapped. She's clearly in very good form at the moment and I think the drop in trip will help as I was worried she wouldn't stay in the final hunter chase of the season. She was entered at Newton Abbot earlier in the week, but I suspect Fergal has chosen this race as his daughter can take the ride against fellow amateur riders again. She's been entered over fences next week so a quick follow up wouldn't be a shock either. This is a very weak contest and I can only really make a case for the two horses who won the 2 divisions of a handicap hurdle over course and distance last month. Dan Gun has only gone up 3lbs but he wasn't quite as impressive as On We Go who has been in great form for her new yard. She's gone up 9lbs, but I still think there could be more to come and she is the biggest danger for me. I will probably end up having a saver on her given I think she might drift as I suspect Grageelagh Girl will be well backed. Sometimes you see something surprising in a race like this, but I'd be a bit surprised if that happened here given the strong claims of those two.   Grageelagh Girl @ 7/2 with Bet365   In the 2nd race I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Watch Law. Now the Irish horses at the head of the market might just be too good for him, but I have watched his last point run and I think he has a fair bit of ability. He jumped pretty terribly for most of the race and was still only just beaten. He clearly has an engine as they pulled a long way clear of the others. Hopefully he can jump hurdles better because if he does I think he might be capable of out running his odds at the very least.   Watch Law ew @ 20/1 with Bet365   In the 3.40 I think Post No Bills is worth backing e/w. His pointing form suggests that his handicap mark is one he could well win off and he makes his chasing debut in a pretty poor race this afternoon. He put his best run yet over hurdles last time at Fakenham and I think he can improve again for going over fences. Bookies are going 4 places and I would be a bit surprised if he didn't finish in the first 4 at least. Darius Des Sources is a danger as a wind op seems to have helped him based on his last two efforts and the Perth 3rd last time was his best run in ages. The main danger though is the favourite Mah Mate Bob who ran really well here last time when 2nd in a race he won last season. He's still 11lbs below that winning mark and down into Class 5 company he surely will go close again.   Post No Bills ew @ 13/2 with Bet365

Cartmel's opener this afternoon sees Grageelagh Girl look to right the wrong of the last hunter chase of the season. I'm sure you all remember the weight cloth coming off after the last fence and thus she had to be disqualified. She would have won anyway and I did say in the race review that it wouldn't surprise me if her trainer decided to take advantage of the handicap mark. I also mentioned I didn't think the handicapper could touch the mark given the mark of the 2nd and that is exactly what has happened. She goes back over hurdles tomorrow and she has good hurdles form. She last ran over them at Bangor in 2020 and finished a close 3rd off 108 so even on that run the mark of 102 in a lower grade makes her look well handicapped. She's clearly in very good form at the moment and I think the drop in trip will help as I was worried she wouldn't stay in the final hunter chase of the season. She was entered at Newton Abbot earlier in the week, but I suspect Fergal has chosen this race as his daughter can take the ride against fellow amateur riders again. She's been entered over fences next week so a quick follow up wouldn't be a shock either. This is a very weak contest and I can only really make a case for the two horses who won the 2 divisions of a handicap hurdle over course and distance last month. Dan Gun has only gone up 3lbs but he wasn't quite as impressive as On We Go who has been in great form for her new yard. She's gone up 9lbs, but I still think there could be more to come and she is the biggest danger for me. I will probably end up having a saver on her given I think she might drift as I suspect Grageelagh Girl will be well backed. Sometimes you see something surprising in a race like this, but I'd be a bit surprised if that happened here given the strong claims of those two.   Grageelagh Girl @ 7/2 with Bet365   In the 2nd race I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Watch Law. Now the Irish horses at the head of the market might just be too good for him, but I have watched his last point run and I think he has a fair bit of ability. He jumped pretty terribly for most of the race and was still only just beaten. He clearly has an engine as they pulled a long way clear of the others. Hopefully he can jump hurdles better because if he does I think he might be capable of out running his odds at the very least.   Watch Law ew @ 20/1 with Bet365   In the 3.40 I think Post No Bills is worth backing e/w. His pointing form suggests that his handicap mark is one he could well win off and he makes his chasing debut in a pretty poor race this afternoon. He put his best run yet over hurdles last time at Fakenham and I think he can improve again for going over fences. Bookies are going 4 places and I would be a bit surprised if he didn't finish in the first 4 at least. Darius Des Sources is a danger as a wind op seems to have helped him based on his last two efforts and the Perth 3rd last time was his best run in ages. The main danger though is the favourite Mah Mate Bob who ran really well here last time when 2nd in a race he won last season. He's still 11lbs below that winning mark and down into Class 5 company he surely will go close again.   Post No Bills ew @ 13/2 with Bet365

Frankies Fire is out again at Perth this afternoon and she has to be backed again. That Hexham race last time was run in a crawl and the jockey seemed to get caught out by that. She was staying on well at the end after getting outpaced and the time of the race was so much slower than the rest of the card. I'd be surprised given the bigger field if they didn't go a stronger pace here and this is a really weak contest. There are so many who it is hard to make any sort of case for and we know she has the potential to be well handicapped if things go her way. Young William is shorter than her in the betting and has to carry 1st8lbs more yet if this was a point he would be a massive price to beat her on these terms. I don't trust the form of his 3rd last time and I suspect Pammi will reverse form. She looks the most obvious danger as her record at Perth is very good and I don't think the way the race was run last time would have suited. That run was a very rare time where she was out of the first 3 at the track. Amazingly some bookies are going 4 places so I am happy to have a decent bet e/w on her. I know she's becoming a cliff horse, but clearly connections think she can win given they are carrying on racing her so hopefully she can get that win.
 
Frankies Fire e/w @ 13/2 with Bet365, Skybet and Coral (4 places)

Frankies Fire is out again at Perth this afternoon and she has to be backed again. That Hexham race last time was run in a crawl and the jockey seemed to get caught out by that. She was staying on well at the end after getting outpaced and the time of the race was so much slower than the rest of the card. I'd be surprised given the bigger field if they didn't go a stronger pace here and this is a really weak contest. There are so many who it is hard to make any sort of case for and we know she has the potential to be well handicapped if things go her way. Young William is shorter than her in the betting and has to carry 1st8lbs more yet if this was a point he would be a massive price to beat her on these terms. I don't trust the form of his 3rd last time and I suspect Pammi will reverse form. She looks the most obvious danger as her record at Perth is very good and I don't think the way the race was run last time would have suited. That run was a very rare time where she was out of the first 3 at the track. Amazingly some bookies are going 4 places so I am happy to have a decent bet e/w on her. I know she's becoming a cliff horse, but clearly connections think she can win given they are carrying on racing her so hopefully she can get that win.
 
Frankies Fire e/w @ 13/2 with Bet365, Skybet and Coral (4 places)

Frankies Fire is out again at Perth this afternoon and she has to be backed again. That Hexham race last time was run in a crawl and the jockey seemed to get caught out by that. She was staying on well at the end after getting outpaced and the time of the race was so much slower than the rest of the card. I'd be surprised given the bigger field if they didn't go a stronger pace here and this is a really weak contest. There are so many who it is hard to make any sort of case for and we know she has the potential to be well handicapped if things go her way. Young William is shorter than her in the betting and has to carry 1st8lbs more yet if this was a point he would be a massive price to beat her on these terms. I don't trust the form of his 3rd last time and I suspect Pammi will reverse form. She looks the most obvious danger as her record at Perth is very good and I don't think the way the race was run last time would have suited. That run was a very rare time where she was out of the first 3 at the track. Amazingly some bookies are going 4 places so I am happy to have a decent bet e/w on her. I know she's becoming a cliff horse, but clearly connections think she can win given they are carrying on racing her so hopefully she can get that win.
 
Frankies Fire e/w @ 13/2 with Bet365, Skybet and Coral (4 places)

Frankies Fire is out again at Perth this afternoon and she has to be backed again. That Hexham race last time was run in a crawl and the jockey seemed to get caught out by that. She was staying on well at the end after getting outpaced and the time of the race was so much slower than the rest of the card. I'd be surprised given the bigger field if they didn't go a stronger pace here and this is a really weak contest. There are so many who it is hard to make any sort of case for and we know she has the potential to be well handicapped if things go her way. Young William is shorter than her in the betting and has to carry 1st8lbs more yet if this was a point he would be a massive price to beat her on these terms. I don't trust the form of his 3rd last time and I suspect Pammi will reverse form. She looks the most obvious danger as her record at Perth is very good and I don't think the way the race was run last time would have suited. That run was a very rare time where she was out of the first 3 at the track. Amazingly some bookies are going 4 places so I am happy to have a decent bet e/w on her. I know she's becoming a cliff horse, but clearly connections think she can win given they are carrying on racing her so hopefully she can get that win.
 
Frankies Fire e/w @ 13/2 with Bet365, Skybet and Coral (4 places)

Frankies Fire is out again at Perth this afternoon and she has to be backed again. That Hexham race last time was run in a crawl and the jockey seemed to get caught out by that. She was staying on well at the end after getting outpaced and the time of the race was so much slower than the rest of the card. I'd be surprised given the bigger field if they didn't go a stronger pace here and this is a really weak contest. There are so many who it is hard to make any sort of case for and we know she has the potential to be well handicapped if things go her way. Young William is shorter than her in the betting and has to carry 1st8lbs more yet if this was a point he would be a massive price to beat her on these terms. I don't trust the form of his 3rd last time and I suspect Pammi will reverse form. She looks the most obvious danger as her record at Perth is very good and I don't think the way the race was run last time would have suited. That run was a very rare time where she was out of the first 3 at the track. Amazingly some bookies are going 4 places so I am happy to have a decent bet e/w on her. I know she's becoming a cliff horse, but clearly connections think she can win given they are carrying on racing her so hopefully she can get that win.
 
Frankies Fire e/w @ 13/2 with Bet365, Skybet and Coral (4 places)