Darran

The original link I put up for the charity doesn’t work anymore so here is one where you can donate direct to the charity https://fundraising.smallsteps.org.uk/donation/donate

55 minutes after the Cheltenham race we have the Fakenham hunter chase and it looks a really interesting contest. Knight In Dubai actually went to a couple of Cheltenham Festivals when he beat one home in Samcro's Ballymore win and the year after he was 13th in the Coral Cup. He's not won under rules since December 2019 although he's not had that many goes since then and he was going close off 130 last season. He's gone to James Owen's wife's yard and he has won both starts in points at Horseheath this year. His form under rules was over shorted than 3m, but Horseheath is a fair test so he ought to see it out round here. He had his stablemate Grand Roi in behind him in the first win which gives us a bit of basis for the form, but as he proved again on Monday, he's a hard horse to win with. He won easier in the 2nd start, but this should be a tougher test. He does get weight from every other horse in the race and he can win, but I think I am happy enough to look elsewhere. I am a big fan of Rebel Dawn Rising and he has been a bit unlucky not to add to his Leicester hunter chase win a couple of years ago. He made his seasonal reappearance in this race last year and whilst I'm not sure he would have beaten Bennys King, he never got a chance to because he was brought down at the 7th. On Easter Monday he was set to beat Janika and Firak over course and distance until he ran around on the run to the last fence and unseated Dale as he took off. I thought he ran with great credit behind Premier Magic at Cheltenham as he gave it a good go, but he just didn't stay and finishing within 17L of him over 3m2f is a top effort. Clearly 3m round here is fine and he has won first up before. He also wont mind what the weather does as it could rain before the race gets underway. I'm very surprised Firak is out again after Leicester. He ran way below par here on Easter Monday and it looked like he just didn't handle the track. He more than likely wouldn't have won last week, but the hampering at 3 out meant he didn't get the chance to put the winner under pressure. My issue is though is he never looked like he was going all that well and that's the main reason I'm surprised he's out again. So whilst I think he has the ability to win the fact he didn't seem to handle the track, has around 20L to turn around with Rebel Dawn Rising, and he looked to have a hard race last week means I am happy to take him on. Ed Turner's horses tend to always come on for a run or two so the fact Janika pulled up behind Fier Jaguen at Garthorpe on his return last month is no real surprise. The problem is he was 12L behind Rebel Dawn Rising at Garthorpe last March and would have been behind him again if he had jumped the last on Easter Monday. He wouldn't be for me. Dan Skelton has links to 3 horses in this race as he also used to train Shentri. He had been off the track since July 2022 before make his pointing debut at Higham last month. Higham wouldn't be that dissimilar to Fakenham so the track should suit. Whilst he didn't get as high as Knight In Dubai in the ratings, he is only 7 so could be open to improvement and crucially he was very impressive when winning at Higham. He bolted up by 20L there and the time was the quickest of the day. He was quicker than The Big Lense on the same card despite carrying 7lbs more so that makes it a really good effort for me. I guess we have to consider the bounce factor, but more of a concern might be if it rains as has pretty much only run on good ground. Given Chief Black Robe couldn't win a maiden point last season it was quite something that a move to Fergal O'Brien's saw him win 4 handicaps on the bounce. He started off of a mark of 88 and his 4th win was off 115. He then went to the Summer Plate at Market Rasen and finished 4th before getting beat at 2/5 at Newton Abott in September. Back with his owner/rider now he returned at Ampton last month and was 3rd of 4 beaten 13L. I don't think you can completely rule him out given the 4th at Market Rasen, but you do get the feeling that maybe Fergal had a fair bit to with the improvement. All of them have some sort of chance, but I am happy enough to take back Rebel Dawn Rising and Shentri against the field. I think Rebel Dawn Rising is the best horse in the race and as much as he has to give race fitness away, the fact he's won 1st up before and wasn't unfancied to beat Bennys King in this last year, I think that won't be an issue. I want Shentri onside as well because I think that win at Higham is the best recent form of the season and if it isn't too soft for him he ought to go close. Rebel Dawn Rising 2pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 (take up to 11/8) Shentri 1pt @ 9/1 with Bet365 (take up to 5/1)

As per last year if you have found my preview helpful I am looking to raise money for a small charity called Small Steps who have really helped with my youngest son. It really doesn't matter how small the donation as all money is vital for such a small charity who do great things for disabled children. https://www.justgiving.com/page/amanda-pearce-1686595602869?newPage=true

Here is my full in-depth preview for the race on Friday. A smaller field than usual this year, but class wise I think it is up to scratch and it promises to be a good renewal. As ever hopefully I can point you in the way of the winner, but the main reason for the preview is that it provides you with the most in-depth preview on the race you will find and it provides you with the information to also come up with your own mind. Billaway - You can't knock his record in the race having finished 2nd, 2nd, 1st and then fell at the 10th in the last 4 renewals. Given the rest of his form last season you have to think he would have been involved in the finish if he had got round. His jumping hasn't always been great though and that did finally tell last year and he also unseated at Punchestown. He bounced back from that to beat Vaucelet to win a decent pot at Downpatrick in May. He made his seasonal return later than usual this season and he has a terrible first time out record so I wasn't surprised to see him well behind in 3rd as they turned for home at Naas, but then as Its On The Line idled he railed strongly and it was no surprise that he traded very short in running as he looked like he was going to win. In the end Its On The Line picked up when he got to him and won by a head, but it was still a very good run. I just wonder that given he was having his prep later than usual if he was further forward than he usually is 1st up. I'm not sure he can win it again, but given his record in the race and the fact he ran so well last time suggests to me that if he gets round he isn't going to be far away at the finish. D'Jango - Was one of the Judith Wilson owned horses that David Pipe trained who used to run what seemed like every week and he was rated just 100 over fences when picked up by new connections. Not surprisingly he went off a massive price for the opening hunter chase of the season, but he massively outran his odds when finishing a length 2nd to the very promising mare Regatta De Blanc. That horse has franked the form since as has the 3rd Bennys King and Shantou Flyer was behind in 5th. He then stayed on very strongly at Warwick to overhaul Tea Clipper after the last and they had pulled well clear of the others. He was possibly a little disappointing in the Walrus at Haydock last time when a fairly well beaten 4th behind Spyglass Hill, but it was really testing ground that day and I'm not sure he was totally in love with it. The handicapper has put him up 29lbs since he went hunter chasing and I think that is fair enough given the form he has shown. We know he stays well and the ground is clearly going to better than Haydock so whilst I doubt he will win, I think he can run well and finish in the top half. Ferns Lock - There were 3 horses I saw last season who really impressed me and Ferns Lock was one of them. His wins at Fairyhouse where he beat Its On The Line and at Thurles where he beat Billaway were hugely impressive. Lots wanted him to go to Cheltenham on the back of that, but I thought they were right to give him more time as he needed more experience. He went to Gowran Park instead and although he won hard held his jumping wasn't quite as good as it had been and backed up my thinking that he needed another year. He was then surprisingly beaten at Fairyhouse when Annamix picked up the pieces after Ferns Lock and Billaway got racing from a fair way out. That run though did make me think that maybe his stamina wasn't quite what he needed to be to win this race. This season he returned at Dromahane and beat a useful field with ease. He then went to Down Royal and looked like he was going to win again having seen off the challenge of Ramillies, but he had no response to the fast finishing Its On The Line who beat him by 0.5L. That performance really set off the alarm bells about his stamina for 3m2f around Cheltenham. He bounced back to winning ways by beating a stablemate of Its On The Line with ease at Thurles. What was interesting though was that Ruby Walsh said after the race that he looks an Aintree horse not a Cheltenham horse and I completely agree with him. Even his trainer has come out and said he thinks he might be more of an Aintree horse. If he goes to Aintree I think he will be very hard to beat. On the whole he jumps well and he enjoys being out in front, but although he's not overly keen he is free running and I think at this stage of his career he just does a bit too much to win this race. The one thing in his favour on that front though is the smaller field than usual as he might get away with a bit of a freebie up front which wouldn't have been the case with a full field. My thinking is there is a strong chance of him being in front at the last, but that he will having nothing for the run-in and at least something will outstay him. The other thing to note is he is unlikely to get left alone on the front end and as we saw at Fairyhouse that isn't going to help him either. I suspect he is the best horse in the race ability wise and that he's better than a hunter chaser and if he did happen to stay he wins, but I don't think he will stay so am happy to take him on. From The Heart - Has shown form that suggests he could win a hunter chase at some point, but nothing in his form suggests he can get anywhere near to winning this and his massive price reflects his chances. Its On The Line - The horse I have thought would be the winner since he beat Ferns Lock at Down Royal on Boxing Day. Was a fast finishing 2nd to Premier Magic last year when having the cheekpieces on for the first time. Jumping 2 out you wouldn't have given him any hope of reaching the frame as he was looking pretty laboured and then all of a sudden late on his flying home and had clearly got going too late. He then fell at Aintree, but pretty much made all to win at Punchestown. He did race lazily that night, but what I liked was he kept finding for Derek and whilst Vaucelet had travelled better, he just couldn't get past him and a mistake at the last made no difference to the result for me. It was a bit of a surprise to see him run again in another point a couple of weeks later and finished 2nd to Rocky's Howya and both horses had long succesful seasons. This season he's 3/3. He won a point in November and then went to Down Royal when outstaying Its On The Line. Over 2f further I just don't see how the form can be reversed. We know Its On The Line is all about stamina and even if he gets outpaced we know he's highly likely to be finishing best of all. Onto that dramatic race at Naas where he first of all went toe to toe with Ramillies and once he saw him off at the last he then started to idle and Billaway came from nowhere looking like he was going to go straight pass him, but as soon as he got to Its On The Line he picked up again and he was a head in front at the line. For a horse to do that having gone hard in testing ground just shows he clearly had plenty left and that when it matters he will fight. I doubt he is going to be left in front here, but to be fair he has also shown he is hard to pass once he gets in front anyway even if he is. The trainer has said he will be putting the cheekpieces back on so that should bring about a little bit more as well. It could be argued that why should he beat Premier Magic based on last year's run, but I think he's improved and I doubt Premier Magic has given he is now 11. Clearly 7yos don't have a good recent record in the race, but he has a different profile to most good ones who have tired as we know he will stay and that he has the class to win. I think a fair few younger horses who have tried just haven't stayed which isn't a concern with him. The softer the ground the better as it will test turn it into more of a test, but it was decent ground when he won at Punchestown so it isn't crucial. JP has no doubt paid a few quid for him last week and I suspect he might well have next years Grand National in mind as much as this contest. He is the one they all have to beat. Premier Magic - I was put off his chances for this race last year because of the way he ran in the race in 2022. He looked like he hated every second of it before pulling up and knowing that Brad wanted to run Highway Jewel instead it put me off backing him despite thinking he had the ability to run well. In 2022 he was on the inside, so Brad decided to ride him on the outside and it worked a treat. He was always going well and took the lead at 2 out before always holding the fast finishing Its On The Line. Somehow he recorded a higher RPR when winning on hunter chase night on his next start, but he beat a non stayer in Rebel Dawn Rising and the rest of the field were a poor bunch in the context of this race. He definitely achieved more winning this. This season he has won both his starts at Sheriff Hutton and Brocklesby Park. The issue I have though is neither of those efforts told us anything apart from he has four legs still. The 2nd and 3rd at Sheriff Hutton have both been stuffed in hunter chases recently and he was 1/10 at Brocklesby. There was certainly more depth to his wins prior to last year's race. I'm not saying for a second that he couldn't be another duel winner, but you are guessing how much ability he still retains because the two runs have told us nothing. He's now 11 and my thinking is that Its On The Line has improved so he will have to have done as well. He seems about the right price at this stage. The cheekpieces which he wore for both Cheltenham wins last season and have been missing this season go back on here. Quintin's Man - We know the course and distance will hold no fears for him as he bolted up to win the Intermediate Final on hunter chase night last year. You can pick holes in that form, but it was still an impressive performance. He then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup and he hated the experience and never really looked happy at any stage. He started off the season with a couple of 3rds which didn't look overly hopeful, although the second of them at Chipley Park has worked out well. He certainly stepped up on those efforts at Wincanton when beaten a useful field in taking style. Lalor was 2nd there and Paul Nicholls tried to get him qualified for this, but he was only 4th at Taunton. I wouldn't have that effort knock the form because the race would have come soon enough and it was a hot race. Quintin's Man went to Haydock for the Walrus and whilst the trip was on the short side for him my thinking was the bottomless ground would make it such a test of stamina that it would be ideal for him. He did get himself outpaced though in the home straight, but I still thought he was going to win jumping the last, but I just wonder if the effort of getting to the 1st and 2nd paid on the run-in and he ended up in 3rd. I think he needs soft ground to be seen at his best and we know he stays well so he wouldn't be the worst outsider in the race. Ramillies - Surprised that he is even running in this given the way he ran at Gowran Park on Saturday. He was legless after the last behind Its On The Line before that and I struggle to see him staying. Samcro - Good old Samcro finally gets his chance to run in this race as he didn't qualify for hunter chases in the UK last year. A duel Festival winner and no doubt the horse that people will get excited about because on his old form he's easily the best horse in the race. He got up to a mark of 160 over fences and 163 over hurdles and there will be those out there who will presume that means he should win this. If he was still capable of running to anywhere near those marks though he wouldn't be hunter chasing. One day no doubt a horse with his sort of profile will win the race again, but horses like him just don't win this race anymore. If he had been able to run in teh race last year I'd have given him more of a chance as he won 3 points by 30L twice and 32L the other time. This season he looks to have gone backwards as he won by just 2.5L first time up, albeit snugly, and then last month he was only 3rd at Belharbour behind Lifetime Ambition. I thought he looked quite laboured in the finish that day and whilst the winner is apparently going to be aimed at Aintree it didn't look a performance of a horse who was going to be good enough to win this. My other concern is how he will fare going back under rules because he had really lost his way and he always had his quirks anyway. 9 of the last 10 winners of this have had to run to an RPR of 141 to win and I have big doubts about him running to that level anymore. He's a single figure price, but he should be around 25/1 for me. Also as much as he did win twice at The Festival he was also pulled up in the Ryanair the last time he ran here. Shantou Flyer - Has an incredible record at Cheltenham having won twice, finished 2nd 5 times and 3rd 3 times in his 13 starts round here. His record at the Festival reads fell in the National Hunt Chase in 2016, 2nd beaten a neck in the Ultima of 2018, 2nd in the 2019 Foxhunter, 3rd in the 2020 Foxhunter, 3rd in the 2021 Kim Muir and 3rd in last years race 3L behind Premier Magic. That is some record and it would be no surprise if he was to run a huge race yet again. He was in really good form last season as he won hunter chases in really good style at Exeter and Stratford and the 2nd in the 4m race on hunter chase night was good because he just doesn't stay that far (had been 5th the year before in that contest). This season he won on his return at Larkhill and then was 5th in the opening hunter chase of the season behind Regatta De Blanc when he tried to keep up with Bennys King at the head of the race and they both went too quick. That trip would have been short enough in a race of that quality as well. He had his prep at Charlton Horethorne on Sunday where he actually won 2 races because he walked over in the hunt race before winning the Mixed Open beating Singapore Saga by a comfortable 3L. It would be some effort for him to finally win at the Cheltenham Festival at the age of 14, but some bookies will be offering extra places (probably down to 8 at least) and he would look a fair e/w bet taking the lower odds and extra places. To be honest a top 4 finish at normal odds might well show a return given his record at the meeting and Cheltenham overall. Time Leader - Joe O'Shea has had a knack of improving horses by stones over the years and this was another one. When he started hunter chasing he was rated 90 and he is now up to 128 and even that mark might under estimate him. He won twice at Leicester and Stratford last year, before surprisingly running just 6 days later in the mud at Carlisle over 3m which looked very unsuitable for him and so it proved as he pulled up. He then ran a massive race in the Aintree Foxhunters when staying on well to finish 5th 6.25L behind Famous Clermont. He made a bad mistake at the Chair that day and without it he would have gone closer. After that he won at Kelso and at Cartmel where he beat Gaboriot by 12L over just over 3m1f. That gives a hint that he might be capable of staying the trip here and whilst the 2nd as improved since it still gives a bit of value to the form given he has won 3 times this season. You will notice that Hannah Roach now trains him, but don't be fooled as Joe is very much still involved and he made a winning return before getting stuck in the mud at Chaddesley Corbett in December. It was no surprise he bounced back at Hereford in January and he won with loads in hand. The better the ground the better his chance because he doesn't seem to handle it testing and it wouldn't help his stamina either. If it is no worse than good to soft though it wouldn't surprise me if he went close, but the weather suggests that is unlikely to happen now. Sine Nomine - I have been slow to warm to her because you have always been able to pick all sorts of holes in her rules form, but after her win at Wetherby I think it is just a case of her being a very good horse. She made her rules debut in the Intermediate Final on hunter chase night a couple of years ago and she jumped terribly although was still able to finish 3rd albeit a well beaten one. Last season she had 3 point starts before going to Stratford where she was foot perfect and beat Kaproyale easily. Now I wondered if she was the only one who liked the ground (the favourite didn't) and Kaproyale is better over shorter so I my thinking was she was the only one to have conditions to suit. She then went back to hunter chase night here and ran in the mares race and was beaten by Miss Seagreen. She travelled really well and looked the winner for a long way, but was just over hauled late on. She then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup which she won again after traveling strongly. The problem is the form isn't very strong with the 2nd having been stuffed in handicaps off marks in the low 100s since. First time out this season she was beaten at Alnwick in the mud by Wagner who whilst he has been a winning machine this season wouldn't be a fancy in this so again I wasn't overly strong on her going into Wetherby. On the face of it you could say she has beaten a non stayer in Bennys King, a horse who has needed his first two runs in Windsor Avenue and the favourite Fairly Famous hated the ground so again you can pick holes in the form. However she's travelled all over Bennys King for most of the home straight and therefore if the race had been over say 2m6f Sine Nomine still would have won. Given Bennys King form this season has been exceptional I think this effort is probably the best run from a British trained horse this season. I think she is at her best with a bit of cut in the ground and she is such a strong traveller whatever the conditions. There are two minor worries I have though. First of all her two worse runs under rules have both come at Cheltenham but the first was down to inexperience and I think she will be better off in a bigger field and truly run race which she didn't get last May. Secondly there has to be a small concern about her seeing out the trip given that defeat her last year. I know she won over further at Stratford, but it was a slowly run race and not a test at all. Secret Investor was 22 seconds quicker whilst carrying 7lbs more which shows how slow it was run. Maybe she might be one of these younger horses how doesn't quite see it out, but difference is she is a double figure price and she should be shorter. Verdict - So we are going to have the smallest field for some time and I think the real reason for that is the lack of total no hopers in the race. As much as I am happy to take certain horses on, you can only say that From The Heart doesn't have any chance of winning the race. If you haven't backed Its On The Line yet I do think there is some juice in the price. He's the most likely winner for me and given the weather forecast it does look like its going to be on the softer side which isn't going to help Ferns Lock stamina. What will help him though is the smaller field as he might just get an easier time on the front end than I originally thought before the 6 day decs. Sine Nomine is clear 2nd choice for me and I am happy to back her now. If there are only 13 runners then we might not see many, if any, bookies go 4 places and I think her price might come in. I think she has the best British form this season coming into the race as that Wetherby run was a top class effort. Those two slight concerns I mention in her profile are more than factored into the price for me and I think she should be a single figure price. If Premier Magic is in the same form as last year then clearly he is going to go close, but it is impossible to know if he is or not based on his two point runs this season and he's the right sort of price at the moment. Billaway's record in the race means he must be respected and again looks the right sort of price. I couldn't put anyone off backing either though if you fancy them. The final bet to be added is Quintin's Man. Conditions are certainly going to be in his favour and he is an out and out stayer so I certainly want him on side. If it had dried out more then I would have put Time Leader up, but conditions don't look like being ideal for him and that will put an extra test on his stamina. Bet365 have a 6 place market and couldn't put anyone off throwing a few quid at Shantou Flyer in that market given his record at Cheltenham. Bets given on Monday Its On The Line 3pts @ 5/2 with Bet365 (take up to 15/8) Sine Nomine 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 10/1) Bet added on Thursday Quintin's Man 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 16/1)

Granted Cheltenham is obviously going to take most of the focus, but Tuesday also sees the start of the Australian jumps season at Warrnambool and I am back to cover the season for the 5th time. It has been 2 very profitable years and a couple of small losses. What started as something to focus on during Covid has turned into a real passion. All being well I should be taking in the all jumps card at Pakenham next month on my visit to Australia and I can't wait to see some of these horses in the flesh. Right onto Warrnambool and we have 3 races an Open Hurdle, a Maiden Hurdle and an Open Steeple. Race 1 There is actually a Cheltenham link in this first race as Crosshill featured in races against Galopin Des Champs and Gentlemansgame among others when trained by Jessie Harrington. He ran a couple of promising races at Pakenham and in the Grand Annual last year and whilst he did go on to win a maiden on the flat his other jumps starts weren't great. He hasn't run over hurdles in Australia, but his last run in Ireland was a win over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival so he's very capable. He's trialed well and ran a respectable race on the flat last month. He does have to give weight away to the very short price fav here though. Teofilo Star ran in 3 hurdles last year and after finishing 2nd at Pakenham he broke his maiden tag over course and distance in May. He impressed that day and he was even more impressive 3 weeks later at Sandown in a BM120 when winning by 15L. He went back on the flat after that and whilst he was well beaten in the Brisbane Cup he did when a BM100 at Flemington just before. He's not run in a race since, but won his last hurdles trial. Serenade The Stars was behind Crosshill in the trial at Terang last week. He won the first maiden hurdle of the season last year and was then 2nd in his other 2 hurdle starts. He will be fit from the flat. If Crosshill could run to his Irish form he would be over priced, but I don't think he's been quite up to that level and Teofilo Star looks a potential top notcher over hurdles this season and he ought to win as his odds suggest although 1/14 is very short. Its a race to watch. Race 2 Only 2 of these have raced over hurdles and Buffalo Bill has had 20 goes without. That clearly makes things tricky especially as none of these have raced at that high a level on the flat. Tarn's Prince is the favourite and he trialed well against some useful horses last week at Terang. I am though going to take a chance on Elementry. Very unusual for top connections to send a horse over hurdles after just one flat run, which granted was awful. He won his 2nd hurdles trial here and beat Antequera into 2nd place. He seemed to enjoy jumping and his jockey seemed keen to try and teach him how to race. He's been very well backed which whilst annoying in one way does add to the confidence that he's going to go very well. Elementry 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill Race 3 There can't be many horses that have run in the Arc and then won a steeplechase, but Nelson has done that having been behind Enable in the Arc and then winning a chase at Coleraine last August. He could win this, but he is very short for me and there could be value elsewhere. Police Camp is very experienced and was 2nd at a big price in the Grand Annual last year which was actually his last run. I suspect he will need this. Mighty Oasis caused a huge shock when he won the Thackeray over course and distance beating the Grand Annual winner Rockstar Ronnie. He had been 2nd in this race last year and he usually runs his race. Instigator has been a solid hurdler and is making his chasing debut here. He had one steeple trial here and it was OK. I want to see him in a race though before backing him. Yulong Prince showed some decent form when last seen over fences in 2022. He won a couple over fences including over course and distance and was 2nd to Flying Agent, who was superb that year, in a couple of the big races. Clearly he's been injured since, but he ran in a Picnic (Aussie version of point to point but on the flat) race a couple of weeks ago and then trialed well last week at Terang. I'm certain we will have some better punting cards in during the rest of the season, but I will have a couple of small bets on Mighty Oasis and Yulong Prince as I think they are over priced and we might just get Nelson beat. Yulong Prince 0.5pts @ 17/2 with William Hill Mighty Oasis 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet356

I will start the update with a bit of an apology as I haven't been keeping this as up to date as I usually do and a lot has happened in the last month or so since I last updated things. Lets start with the current market leader for the race Ferns Lock who had a very easy success at Thurles a few days after the previous update. It was an OK field (Romeo Magico was 2nd) and he did it in the style of a classy horse. My first thought though was that he should skip Cheltenham and go to Aintree. He is a keen, free going sort and he is highly unlikely to be gifted an easy lead at Cheltenham. I mentioned after Down Royal that he might struggle to stay 3m2f at this stage of his career and this performance backed up that thought. What was really interesting was after the race on Racing TV Ruby Walsh also said he should go to Aintree and not Cheltenham. Then a couple of weeks ago his trainer also said that Aintree would be more his cup of tea, but they may as well give Cheltenham a go. As I have mentioned before his owner has backed him for Cheltenham and I just wonder if he hadn't if he would even be going for the race. I think he is the best horse in the race and he could run in better races than hunter chases, but I'm going to be bold and say at least one other will outstay him. I'd even be tempted to place lay him on the day for a low risk lay as I sort of think he might either win or really paddle after the last and more than a couple go past him. Christie also said that Ferns Lock is a better horse than Winged Leader and Vaucelet. I get the feeling neither of those two will be heading to Cheltenham, but he did have plans to send Ramillies to The Festival if he ran well at Naas next time. As it turned out though he just looked a non stayer again so it would seem a bit pointless to run him. He made most of the running alongside Billaway to start with and then Its On The Line from about half-way. Jumping the last the pair of them were still upsides, but Its On The Line started to pull away. Then the drama happened as Billaway came from miles back to look as if he was going to go straight pass Its On The Line only for him to pick up again and stay in front. The 7yo was racing pretty lazily for a fair way of the race and whilst the ground was clearly testing I don't think the horse was tired at all. The fact he picked up again once Billaway got to him proved to me he was just idling on the run-in and wanted some company. He will have plenty of company at Cheltenham and we know he stays all day. I put on Twitter before the race that I had backed him for Cheltenham and I still think he is the most likely winner right now. Billaway ran probably his best ever race 1st up as usually he struggles on his first run of the season. I have seen a suggestion that maybe Willie had him straighter this year because he was making his first run later than usual. He fell in this last year and unseated at Punchestown, but his form around that suggests he is still more than capable of playing a part in the finish. It was no surprise to see Hitak pushed out to as big as 33/1 as he never got involved at all. He must be a doubtful runner now. What I hadn't spotted was that Its On The Line has been entered in the Grand National and that led Robbie Wilders of the Racing Post to tip him up in one of their shows on Saturday. He thought that he was going to win easy at Naas, then win at Cheltenham before going to Aintree for the National. The only problem being that is impossible because as soon as you run in a British hunter chase you can't run in a non hunter chase until after the hunter chase season ends. I suspect Mullins doesn't know this either because it would appear to be a waste of money otherwise. It would not surprise me though if he did run in a National at some point. Also entered in the Grand National is Samcro and he ran at the start of the month and was only 3rd to Lifetime Ambition, a horse who is being aimed at the Aintree Foxhunters. So not a bad run, but it just highlighted to me what his win in November did and that is he is on the downgrade. He's as short as 13/2 (Bet365) and he could be triple that price and I still wouldn't want to back him. Famous Clermont won a match at 1/10 at Larkhill last month. He looks set to bid to retain his Walrus crown at Haydock at the weekend, but as I've said all along he looks set to skip Cheltenham to focus on Aintree. Time Leader also looks set to go to Haydock and he was a good winner at Hereford last month. Again though I'd be surprised if he went to Cheltenham before Aintree. Premier Magic also won at 1/10 on Saturday at Brocklesby. It was a very slow time so they clearly went no pace and essentially both wins this season have only told us that he is fit and healthy. I certainly think you couldn't rule him out becoming another dual winner of the race, but it is impossible to know if he is still good enough based on the two runs this year. Rocky's Howya has still not been sighted and that has to be a concern about him running in the race. I always say that it's very hard to back something ante-post for this race before you know it is well because you rarely get to see quotes about the runners. Secret Investor is entered at Fakenham on Friday, but again the trainer has so far said he will skip Cheltenham. Tea Clipper has run twice since the last update and whilst I could give him a pass on the Warwick 2nd the 3rd at Ludlow was a shocker. I think he's better than that, but now he's unlikely to qualify for Cheltenham and sights will need to be lowered. Two British trained pointers have won hunter chases and could go to Cheltenham are Sine Nomine and Quintin's Man. The former ran out an easy winner at Wetherby and whilst you can pick all sorts of holes in her form the fact is we just don't know how good she actually is yet. The well backed favourite Fairly Famous hated the ground and pulled up and the 2nd Bennys King isn't a true stayer at the trip. Like I say though she is clearly a good and the softer the ground next month the better her chance will be. Quintin's Man beat Lalor at Wincanton in good style which was a return to form after a couple of poor efforts pointing this season. He stays and handles the track so could easily run a solid race if they went down this route. He's also in at Haydock on Saturday. One of the big point races of the season is the Coronation Gold Cup at Larkhill and it saw a tremendous finish which saw Grace A Vous Enki and Regatta De Blanc dead heat. I mentioned the former in my last update as he had been impressing in points and this was another top effort. I'd imagine the plan with the latter would still be Cheltenham in May rather than Cheltenham in March. Finally Fier Jaguen made his seasonal return at Garthorpe and won with ease. What is worrying about him though is he jumped out to his right still despite it being a right handed track. I'd imagine Aintree would be more likely than Cheltenham. To sum it all up I still think Its On The Line is the most likely winner at this stage. I doubt his price is likely to change that much now between now and the race, but if you are looking for ante-post multi's I would be sticking him in. NB - Winged Leader was only 3rd in a point on Saturday and that suggest he continues to be on the downgrade and wont be heading to Cheltenham. Also still no entries for Rocky's Howya.

Is entered in a point this weekend.

Rather helpfully the Racing Post had an interview with the person who runs the syndicate who own Regatta De Blanc and he is thinking the same as me that hopefully she will turn out to be a horse who can win this in future years, but this year the target is Hunter Chase night instead. She is set to take in the Coronation Cup at Larkhill on the way as well. Obviously connections can change their mind, but think it is fair to say the chances of her running are pretty low.

Time to catch up with everything that has happened in the last month or so and plenty has happened regarding Cheltenham. The obvious place to start is the hunter chase at Down Royal on Boxing Day where Its On The Line just wore down Ferns Lock on the run-in and not surprisingly has disposed him at the head of the market for The Festival. After 3 out the winner got outpaced and looked like he was going to finish 3rd at best as Ferns Lock and Ramillies went on, but the latter got very tired and the former just wasn't able to repel the winners challenge late on. Given Ferns Lock is quite a free going sort I struggle to see how he is going to stay 3m2f at Cheltenham at this stage of his career. We know from Its On The Line's run in the race last year that he stays the trip very well and I just don't see how Ferns Lock could reverse the form in March. If he were mine I'd be tempted to skip Cheltenham and go to Aintree which looks tailormade for him. I know his owner has backed him for Cheltenham though so I suspect he will go there if he is fit and well. Given the way Ramillies faded into 4th he doesn't appeal as a possible contender at this stage, although he did win again back pointing on Sunday. Vaucelet, who was a further 18L back in 5th, looks, as his pointing form suggested, to have totally lost his form. The other hunter chase in Ireland over Christmas was the maiden one at Limerick and Its On The Line's stablemate, Romeo Magico landed that. The form has been boosted since as the 2nd has won since. His trainer likes him and thinks he got away with the ground and will be a nice horse in the spring. He hasn't qualified for this yet and surely Its On The Line will be the stables leading contender if he does decide to run Romeo Magico as well. Famous Clermont is currently 3rd in the betting and I only mention him here because of that as connections have only talked about him going to Aintree and I still view him as a very unlikely runner. He made his return at Larkhill on New Years Eve and having cruised into contention he then made a mistake at 2 out and tired very quickly. Will allowed him to cost home after that and he was a 33L 3rd in the end. His trainer has said since that whilst he thought he had left a bit to work on he clearly had left more than he thought. I'm sure he will improve as the season goes on. The winner of that race was a horse called Grace A Vous Enki who used to be trained by Paul Nicholls and is only rated 113 over fences at the moment. Nicky Sheppard though has clearly got him in much better form than that though and this was his 2nd easy win of the season after he won at Larkhill earlier in December as well. I think his performances can be upgraded because he has jumped left on both wins which suggests he wants to be going left handed. He's not in the betting for Cheltenham at the moment, but he should be. Onto last year's winner Premier Magic and after Chaddesley Corbett was called off over Christmas he headed to Sheriff Hutton on Sunday instead. He went off at 2/7 and won just as easily as the odds suggested. It was a solid test though as the race took 7m23s to run and it should bring him on nicely. He is set for one more prep race prior to his attempt at keeping hold of his crown. The first hunter chase of the season in the UK was at Taunton last Monday and it saw Regatta De Blanc win on rules debut after 3 pointing wins all at Larkhill. I thought she showed plenty of inexperience in the jumping stakes and also through greenness, but she beat a very good field. Some people might want to crab the form based on the 2nd, but I think he showed improved form and I think the form will stand up as the season goes on. However I wouldn't go near the Cheltenham Festival with her this season as whilst next year she might well be capable of being up to running in it, I don't think she has the experience at the moment. She also isn't qualified yet and Will didn't really seem to mention that Cheltenham was the target. If she was mine I would be aiming her at the mares race on hunter chase night at Cheltenham to give her cause experience and the 14/1 makes no appeal at all at this stage. Another horse who has just had 4 starts is the Irish 7yo Hitak. He was stuffed on debut on April 2022, but he looks a different horse on his 3 runs last month and on Sunday. He bolted up in his maiden at Tattersalls Farm and then at the end of the month he went straight into open company and he won. It wasn't like he beat rubbish though because Winged Leader was the horse who finished 2nd. On Sunday he was an easy winner of another open to qualify for Cheltenham. I'd like to see him under rules first (entered at Thurles on Sunday) and again although he is clearly very useful it is some ask for a horse with such little experience to win a race like this. Fakir D'alene is in the betting at 10/1, but he ran in the Paddy Power Chase over Christmas where he brought down at the 5th. As much as he was 2nd in a point back in October his 2 runs in big handicaps since suggest he is going for big handicaps rather than this. Sine Nomine has been talked of as being a possible Cheltenham contender, but she was beaten by Wagner on seasonal return at Alnwick. It was testing ground and he had match fitness on his side, but I've never really felt she was Cheltenham class and this performance backs that up. Tea Clipper is priced up at 16/1 and he was declared at Ludlow on Thursday and is entered at Warwick on Monday. That would suggest they want to get him qualified for this. Simply The Betts was going to be David Maxwell's runner, but sadly he passed away. On Sunday at Thurles as I mentioned Hitak is entered along side Billaway, Ferns Lock, Hardline and Romeo Magic. Could well be a race which tells us more. I'm certainly not suggesting a bet at this stage, but if you asked me now which horse I think will win this year's race I would have to say Its On The Line.

Time to start up the thread again for another season. Some of the leading contenders have already been out over in Ireland although those trained over here have yet to run. A few bookies have priced up the race and to start I will go through those at the head of the market. Ferns Lock - Many people felt he should have gone to Cheltenham last year, but young horses have got a very poor recent record in the race and the fact he was beaten at 4/11 at Fairyhouse over Easter did suggest to me connections made the right decision. He returned last month at Dromahane where he was reportedly 80% fit and drifted in the betting although still going off favourite in a 13 runner field. He put in a very impressive performance though and showed the class he showed plenty of times last season. The 2nd Dinny Lacey won on his next start to give the form a boost as well. At this stage I agree with his position at the head of the market because he was one of the top 3 horses I saw last year. My guess is we will see him at Down Royal on Boxing Day next. Its On The Line - Flew up the run-in last season to finish 2nd to Premier Magic and after falling at Aintree went on to win at Punchestown beating Vaucelet by a length. He did run again after that when being beaten in a point by Cheltenham 4th Rocky's Howya. He ran the week before Ferns Lock at Damma House and beat the ex Paul Nicholls trained Jeremy Pass by 1/2L. It was a solid start and it wouldn't be a shock if he went to Down Royal either. He was beaten 12L by Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse last November, but he was in better form later in the season. He is the same age as Ferns Lock and there ought to be more to come. Easy to see why he is 2nd in the betting. Ramillies - Was with Willie Mullins, but is now with David Christie. He pulled up in the Brown Advisory last season and was 6th in the Albert Bartlett the year before. He was only 3rd in his first two points, but then won twice in back to back weeks last month beating Hardline by 4L and then won by 44L. The trainer mentioned going to Down Royal with him which would give us a better idea as to where he stands with the likes of Ferns Lock, but I would be with his stablemate at this stage. Samcro - Wasn't able to run in British hunter chases last season, but can now and after winning at Tinahely last month Gordon Elliott said he would have one further run before going to Cheltenham. He ran in 3 points last year and was very impressive in wining all 3. The win last month was by a much shorter margin, but he did it snugly. He had lost his way big time under rules and was rated 146 over fences when last seen. I would like to see that next run in a hunter chase because I want to gain a better idea as to if he is a reformed horse or if he just enjoyed going pointing and as soon as he goes back under rules he goes back to his former ways. What I will say is that he would have to be in much better form to be a winning chance in this than he was when last seen under rules and horses with his profile don't seem to win the race anymore. Famous Clermont - Failed to get up the hill last season and then duly made amends at Aintree. He's not run yet, but connections are of the thinking he doesn't stay and so will skip Cheltenham. I must admit I would be tempted to give him another go especially on decent ground, because horses who have looked like non-stayers in the past have gone on to win this race. On The Fringe is the one that really springs to mind regarding that and I think Famous Clermont might be capable of doing something similar if allowed to. Is set to start off his season at Larkhill on New Years Eve. Vaucelet - Was sent off favourite for this last year and never threatened to get involved although in the end he was only beaten 10L in 7th so it wasn't a dreadful run. After that he was 2nd at Punchestown, Downpatrick and Stratford and he has become a little bit frustrating. I know he could be in for a long season, but the fact he has only finished 3rd in his two runs so far this season doesn't exactly bode well. Based on that you could add a 0 to his 10/1 quote for this and even if he does get back into form he is behind Ferns Lock in the stables pecking order. Premier Magic - Last year's winner won't be going off at 66/1 this time around that's for certain! Yet to be seen and I don't know of the plan with him, but he did return at the Chaddesley Corbett meeting over Christmas last season so would be no shock if that was his seasonal return this time around. Rocky's Howya - He was a very progressive horse in Irish points last season and it was no surprise to see him run a blinder in this back in March. In the end he finished 4th after leading and then getting hampered by a loose horse on the run-in. He won 3 more points after that including beating Its On The Line. He is yet to reappear this season, but hopefully all is well as he looks an exciting horse for this season. Fakir D'Alene - Was 2nd in a point to start the season off, but he then finished 3rd in the Troytown and his trainer said he would be running in the big handicap chases this season so doesn't look a likely runner. Secret Investor - Fell in this last year early on, but did go on to win the big one at Stratford in good style. His trainer did say in his stable tour though that he thinks the horse doesn't like Cheltenham and won't be aimed at the race. The Bosses Oscar - Has run in 4 points already, but the only victory came first time out at the start of October. Was beaten 13L into 4th by Ferns Lock and whilst he has qualified he wouldn't look to be good enough at this stage. Time Leader - The only horse worth mentioning from Britain that has run this season. Was a massive improver for Joe O'Shea last season and whilst his name isn't down as the trainer anymore, you can be guaranteed he is still heavily involved. Ran a huge race at Aintree and it seems that rather than Cheltenham is the target. Was hugely impressive first up this season, but then pulled up in very testing ground at Chaddesley Corbett. He's better than that, but my feeling is 3m2f round Cheltenham would stretch his stamina.

Saturday sees the end of the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington with 3 really strong Group 1's on the card. Here are my thoughts on them. Race 6 - Darley Champions Sprint My initial thinking was that Imperatriz was going to be a good thing here. She has been really impressive in winning her last 4 starts all at Moonee Valley and last time out she became the first horse to win all 3 G1 sprints at that venue when landing the Manikato to add to her wins in the William Reid and Moir. She could hardly have won them any easier, but this will be a very different test. For a start she will be having her first start on a straight course and it has to be said that the G1 sprints at Moonee Valley don't tend to be the strongest now the top sprinters seem to target The Everest. At the same time she hasn't been beating total rubbish so there is every chance she could be the best sprinter in Australia right now. At the prices though I am happy to look elsewhere and will take a chance that the Everest form is going to hold up here. Whereas we don't know how Imperatriz will handle a straight track, we don't have those concerns with In Secret who is 2/2 over course and distance which includes winning the G1 Coolmore a year ago and the G1 Newmarket back in March. She hasn't won since, but she ran a huge race in the Everest. She was drawn widest of all and settled in last place, indeed passing the 400m marker she was still in last place and she only really got going 100m out and ended up finishing 4th. Back to Flemington I think she is the one who could possibly beat Imperatriz. In Secret @ 3/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill R7 - Champions Mile Just the 7 here but 4 of them ran in the Cox Plate last time including the 2nd and 3rd Mr Brightside and Alligator Blood. The latter won this race last year and the former finished 1.25L behind him in 3rd. Both ran very well in the Cox Plate, both have been in good form this prep and both are at their best over 1600m. Either are more than capable of winning, but I am going to back the 7th home in the Cox Plate, Fangirl. I put her up for the Cox Plate on the back of a superb win in the King Charles III where she beat Mr Brightside by 2.75L. She had to settle near the back at Moonee Valley which is never ideal and passing the 800m she was in last place. Her jockey decided to ride for luck on the inside and she just never got the gaps. She wasn't the only totally unlucky horse in the race, but I felt she was the one who got the worst luck and she should have gone much closer. Victoria Road has left Aiden O'Brien now after finishing 9th in the Cox Plate. It was a reasonable run, but I wasn't that strong on him going into that race so I am happy to oppose again. Fangirl @ 2/1 with William Hill Race 8 - Champions Stakes The obvious place to start is with Zaaki who has won this race for the last 2 years and ran well in the Cox Plate finishing 6th after being up on the speed. I'd imagine this has probably been the big target as he tries to land the hat-trick. I am going to take him on though with the Simon and Ed Crisford trained West Wind Blows. He has run two huge races since going to Australia finishing 2nd to Gold Trip in the Turnbull and then just losing out in the Caulfield Cup to Without A Fight. Clearly that form was boosted massively in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday with the winner winning again and Soulcombe coming out and finishing 2nd. I've said all along that I thought it was going to be a race that worked out very strongly and I think he is the one the all have to beat. Joseph O'Brien runs Buckaroo who finished a fair 7th in the King Charless III at Randwick on his first Australian start. The step up in distance should suit, but I'd be a little surprised if he was good enough to win. Duais ran a huge race in the Cox Plate when finishing 4th and like Fangirl didn't get a lot of racing room either. If he runs up to that form I think he could be the main danger to West Wind Blows. The New Zealand trained Prowess also needs a mention and she gets the red hot Mark Zahra on top. She won a G1 at Rosehill in March over 2000m and won the G1 Crystal Mile on Cox Plate day. Going back up to 2000m is going to suit and she is a danger. West Wind Blows is going to be the main selection, but I will have a small saver on Duais on the back of that Cox Plate run. West Wind Blows @ 19/10 with Bet365 Duais @ 13/2 with Bet365

Having put up the winner of The Everest, the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate in recent weeks I am hoping I can make it 4/4 in the biggest race of them all, the Melbourne Cup. Here is my look through the 23 runners which make up this year's field. Gold Trip - History isn't on his side he is aiming to be the first repeat winner since Makybe Diva and the first to carry 58.5kg since Think Big in 1975, but last year's winner is absolutely flying this prep and arguably is in even better form. The Turnbull win 3 back was top class, he didn't get much luck in running when 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and it was a similar story in the Cox Plate when 5th last time. People say he needs cut, but he has proven this prep he can more than handle a quick track so the ground doesn't worry me. Mark Zahra has picked Without A Fight over him, but James McDonald is pretty much the best super sub you can hope for. The one minus for me is his draw in 2. Last year he settled in 18th and flew home from a wider draw, but this year he is going to need luck in running from his inside gate. For me though that is the only negative and if he holds the form he's shown already this prep he has to be in the top 4. Alenquer - A former Royal Ascot winner and a Group 1 winner in Ireland, but he's been unplaced in 5 Aussie starts now and in what will be Damian Oliver's last Cup, he is going to have to pull off something special to win another one on the 6yo. Needs to pass a vet check on the morning of the race. Without A Fight - Given a very European style campaign with just 1 prep run leading into the Caulfield Cup, but it worked a treat as he came pretty much widest of all round the home bend to storm home and be really tough in a battling finish with his former stablemate West Wind Blows. He was just 13th in this last year, but the ground was too wet for him and we know he comes into this in peak form. Connections will probably be happy enough he is drawn in 16 as he should be able to settle in the latter half of the field and get clear air in the straight. The double hasn't been done in 22 years, but he has to have a strong chance. Breakup - Japanese horse whose best recent runs have come over 3000m and 3200m in Japan earlier in the year. Hadn't run since June going into the Caulfield Cup which was always likely to be too short a trip for him and he basically stayed in around 8th place the whole way. To me he ran like a horse who needed the run and he really ought to improve on that run especially up in trip. He also didn't get a lot of room twice in the straight and without that I think he would have finished closer. Wouldn't discount him at double figure odds. Vauban - Plenty of people think you may as well give him the Cup now as they are so certain of him winning. Willie Mullins has gone close to winning this race before and it seems this has been plan long in the making possibly before he even won the 2022 Triumph Hurdle. Bolted up at Royal Ascot beating Absurde by 7.5L and then won at Naas to qualify for this. I have said on Twitter that if he drew poorly then that wouldn't help and was joking about 24, but inside draws can be just as tricky although Ryan Moore can work wonders as he showed an Auguste Rodin on Saturday. He gets 7lbs from Gold Trip although I wouldn't be certain that would be enough. What I will say though is his owner thinks he could be a Cups horse next year over here and if he is then he ought to win this. The price has been too short in recent days, but he is just starting to drift out and he is a tempting bet again. Soulcombe - Was really impressive when winning the Queen Elizabeth on the final day of this carnival a year ago, but has only won once this year which came in a Listed Race at Caulfield over 1700m. He was a super 3rd in the Turnbull and does get a 3kg pull in the weights with Gold Trip for a 2.15L defeat that day. The worry is he can blow the start and he lost about 6L at the start in the Caulfield Cup. I thought he did very well though to come home 7th given that. The further trip and longer home straight here will help him if he does blow the start, but his draw of 4 isn't going to be a great help in that regards. Even so he has to be one of the leading candidates. Absurde - The Ebor winner under a great Frankie Dettori ride and whilst no horse has done the double it is usually a good form guide for this race. He was 2nd to Vauban at Royal Ascot, but he was really keen in the early stages and was held up of a fairly slow pace which the winner was able to dictate, so he certainly wasn't see to best effect that day. The yard clearly think Vauban is their main chance, but he is certainly one of the possible winners. Right You Are - Won the Mornington Cup in April and was a really strong 5th in the Caulfield Cup last time especially given he settled in around 5th just off a very strong pace. That was a personal best for me and came on the back of only finishing 11th in the Turnbull. He's never been further than 2400m and you wouldn't really say he's going to improve for it. Vow And Declare - The 2019 winner who has then finished 18th in 2020 and 10th last year. Despite that he still has more weight than he did when he won the race, but to be fair to him he comes into this in good form with a 2nd in the G1 Caulfield Stakes and in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup last time. Could improve on the 10th of last year, but surely isn't going to repeat 2019's success. Ashrun - Was 10th in the 2020 running and then didn't run again until September due to a tendon injury. Was OK in his first 2 runs back and then finished a good 2nd in the Geelong Cup. Every chance he will come on for that again, but that form isn't good enough to be winning this. Daqiansweet Junior - Stays well and won the Adelaide Cup and has been 3rd in a Sydney Cup, but has been unplaced in 9 starts since then and shouldn't be good enough. Okita Soushi - Another winner from this years Royal Ascot winning the Duke Of Edinburgh. Had a break after that and finished 3rd in the Irish St Leger Trial. He then came over to Australia and finished 12th in the Caulfield Cup. He will have to improve massively on that. Sheraz - Only managed 1 placing in 12 Australian starts which came in the Sydney Cup last year. Stays, but highly unlikely to be good enough. Lastotchka - Having her first start in Australia after winning the Prix Gladiateur at Longchamp a couple of months ago. I'm not sure that was a strong race and she might prefer a softer surface. A draw of 21 isn't ideal either. Magical Lagoon - Won the Irish Oaks last year, but has been pretty awful since going to Australia. 6th in the Geelong Cup was an improvement, but needs a hell of a lot more. Military Mission - Landed the Herbert Power at Caulfield last time although the last horse to win that and the Cup was Rogan Josh in 1999. Was a good effort though and he has also won the Newcastle Cup this prep. Has never been further than 2406m though and that might be an issue, but he has better claims than quite a few of these. Serpentine - The 2020 Derby winner, but he's only won once in Australia and that was a 4 horse race. Only beat 2 home in this last year, but he's actually been running the best he has in Australia this prep and was 3rd to Future History in the Bart Cummings last time. Even so he would be a surprise winner. Virtuous Circle - 2nd in the ATC Derby at Randwick in April, but has struggled for form since and was only 8th in the Geelong Cup last time. More Felons - People in the UK will know him as Scriptwriter as he has had a name change since going to Australia. Started off with Aiden O'Brien and then went hurdling for Milton Harris last jumps season and did well winning a Grade 2 at the November meeting at Cheltenham. He ended up finishing 5th in the G1 Juvenile Hurdle at the Grand National meeting. He then went back to the level and finished 7th behind Vauban at Royal Ascot and 8th in the Ebor behind Absurde. What he does get here though is a massive turn around in the weights which in theory gives him half a chance of reversing the form. Loomed large in the Geelong Cup on his first start for Waller and ended up 5th in a blanket finish. One of those at a bigger price who does have a chance, but he has drawn in 24 and that will be no help. Future History - Great to see Hollie Doyle pick up a ride and this ex-French horse has progressed well since going to Australia. Won the G3 Bart Cummings in good style when making all before a change of tactics last time in the Moonee Valley Cup where he was held up from a bad draw and stayed on well to finish 3rd. I'm guessing they will try and lead with him again here from 13 and given we don't know if he stays that might be tough. I can see him running well though. Interpretation - Had been behind Future History twice this prep including when just 9th in the Bart Cummings. Won a head bob in the Bendigo Cup last week, but that doesn't look good enough form for this. Kalapour - Running solidly this prep and won the Archer Stakes on Saturday to get into the race. Made all then when able to dictate the speed and dug deep to hold on. I can't see him being good enough True Marvel - Has won over 3800m so we know he stays and was placed in the Sydney Cup and Brisbane Cups last season, but unlikely to be good enough. Verdict - For me there are 7 horses who can win this year's Melbourne Cup and in racecard order they are Gold Trip, Without A Fight, Breakup, Vauban, Soulcombe, Absurde and More Felons. I'm going to have small e/w bets on More Felons and Breakup. More Felons could be well handicapped and I like the fact he's had a run in Australia going into this, although the draw is a negative. I thought Breakup's run at Caulfield was better than it first seemed and given the scope for improvement I want him onside as well. With bookies going 5 places and a couple going 6 I think that offers great value in backing Soulcombe and Gold Trip. Both have drifted out, but I think both have great chances of finishing in the top 6. Soulcombe might blow the start again, but the long Flemington straight will give him ample chance to get involved in the finish and Gold Trip is going so well I just can't see how he doesn't finish in the top 5. At the prices I will leave Absurde and Without A Fight alone. I'm a little surprised that Absurde is as strong in the market as he is because I get the feeling the Mullins camp all fancy the favourite. Having said that if he got the 1-2 I wouldn't be shocked. Without A Fight was my main tip for this last year, but he disappointed on the soft ground. Clearly the Caulfield Cup win was huge and that was a new PB, but his price is tight enough now. Finally after much thought I am going to back Vauban as well as a cover bet. On the Australian Bet365 prices he is now over 3/1 and given I would have him around 3/1 I have to bet him at that price, but I would not take anything under 3/1. NB Bet365 have two sets of prices an Australian book and a UK book. The Australian one only offers 3 places as that is the normal e/w terms over there and can be found in the Australian horse racing section on the site. Because it is only 3 places the prices are bigger (thus why Vauban is a bigger prices there). If you want the UK one you have to go to the ante-post section and go to where it says Australia & New Zealand NRNB and the 5 place market is there. Strong bets Gold Trip e/w @ 7/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred to 5 places or 6/1 with William Hill to 6 places Soulcombe e/w @ 9/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred to 5 places or 8/1 with William Hill to 6 places Cover bet Vauban @ 17/5 with Bet365 in their Australian market Small e/w plays Breakup @ 18/1 with Betfair to 5 places or 16/1 with William Hill to 6 places More Felons @ 33/1 with Betfair to 5 places or 22/1 with William Hill to 6 places

Won’t see a better race all day than the Cox Plate and I’m still not sure how Romantic Warrior managed to get his head in front on the line. Now 3/3 in the big spring Aussie races. Will attempt to make it 4/4 in the Melbourne Cup a week on Tuesday

The Cox Plate is the biggest WFA race in Australia and it looks set to be a cracking race and with it being 7/2 the field it is a competitive one as well. Here is my spin through the runners. Romantic Warrior - Superb form over in Hong Kong and was a warm order for the Turnbull on his first start in Australia, but my initial thinking was that he was a little disappointing in being beaten around 4L by Gold Trip into 4th place. It has to be said though that the form worked out well in the Caulfield Cup last week so given it was his first run since May perhaps it wasn't quite as bad as I initially thought. I think the natural reaction when a short price fav is out of the frame that it wasn't a great run, but it is clearly important to put the run into context. James McDonald is confident that the horse has come on a lot since the Flemington run and if he has then he could easily turn the form around with Gold Trip and go very close to winning. Zakki - Ex Sir Micheal Stoute horse who has done very well for his new connections in Australia. He's 9 now, but he's run two very good races over 1400m and 1600m this prep at Randwick and the first of them he was just beaten by Fangirl. I'd be surprised if he was good enough especially as he's drawn in 12, but he can run another solid race. Mr Brightside - Has already bagged a couple of G1's this prep winning the Memsie over 1400m at Caulfield and then the Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m beating Alligator Blood. He was odds on to win the King Charles III at Randwick a couple of weeks ago, but was more than put in his place by Fangirl. It's been suggested the ground was too firm for him that day, but it was a Good 3 when he won the time before. The problem for me though is the trip as he was only 7th in this last year and I think he needs 1600m to be at his best. Alligator Blood - Looked a non-stayer in this last year when only 5th, but that did come on softer ground and he certainly stayed 2000m well when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes a couple of weeks ago. That came on the back of winning the G1 Underwood the start before. As impressive as he was though at Caulfield I'm not sure it was that strong a race as the favourite was a huge disappointment and he ended up only beating former Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare who is clearly better over further. I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but this will be a tougher test over the trip than his win last time. Gold Trip - What a year he has had. He ran in the Caulfield Cup last year finishing 2nd, he was then 9th in this before winning the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn prep wasn't great, but he is back in great form this prep having won the Turnbull in fantastic fashion and then a really good 3rd last week in the Caulfield Cup given he didn't get a lot of luck in running at all. Clearly he is flying and he didn't get much luck in running in this last year either so the fact he was only 9th can be overlooked a bit. He showed last year that he keeps his form and if he gets better luck in running then he is more than capable of winning this. My Oberon - 3rd in the King Charles III last time which was a solid run, but suggests he shouldn't be good enough. Pinstriped - Won a G2 here over a mile last month and ran OK a couple of weeks ago in the Toorak which is a G1 handicap over a mile. I'd be surprised if he was good enough. Fangirl - Trainer clearly knows how to win this race with a mare and she has been in flying form this prep winning the G1 Winx Stakes and the King Charles III last time out. I was really impressed last time and whilst she is untested over this far, she wasn't stopping last time and she has a potent turn of foot. If she stays I think she will go close. Duais - 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Caulfield Stakes and the Underwood and she was 7th behind Fangirl in the Winx Stakes which all suggests to me she wont be winning this. Victoria Road - The one European runner in the race and will be leaving Aiden O'Brien and staying in Australia. He took 5 runs to win finally landing a Gowran Park maiden last August. He then followed that up with 3 more wins which included a Listed Race and a G3 both in France, before landing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by a nose. The 2nd was Silver Knott who has done little for the form this season, but then again Charlie Appleby's horses haven't always been in great form. He missed his intended seasonal return at Longchamp after getting injured and wasn't seen again until August when he was 7th behind Ace Impact at Deauville. He was then 2nd in the Park Stakes at Leopardstown last month. It was a much better run and you would imagine Aiden has been aiming him at this, but Buckaroo was 2nd in that race and he was a never involved 7th behind Fangirl in the King Charles III Stakes. Clearly anything the yard sends to Australia has to be respected and if he wins then so be it, but I am just not sure he is good enough on bare form. Militarize - Won the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill last month and then didn't get a race run to suit when favourite in the Caulfield Guineas a couple of weeks ago finishing 5th. Landed a couple of G1's last prep so clearly a top class horse, but he's never run over this trip. Does get plenty of weight as a 3yo though. King Colorado - Won a G1 in Queensland in June on his 3rd start, but was only 9th in the Winx Stakes and 7th in the Golden Rose. Was 4th in the Caulfield Guineas last time so did reverse form with Militarize, but I'd be a little surprised if he did finish in front of that one again here. Verdict - A fascinating renewal of the Cox Plate. I must admit my initial thinking was to take on Romantic Warrior, but on looking back at the Turnbull run and the fact the race looks red hot form wise I think he is the most likely winner. He will surely come on plenty for his first run since May and his Hong Kong form does look the best in the race. I will also be having a couple of small savours in the race. Gold Trip has to be one of them given he won the Turnbull and was huge off top weight in the Caulfield Cup last week. We know he can handle the quick back up and granted luck in running he will surely improve massively on his 9th in this last year. I was also hugely impressed by Fangirl at Randwick and if she stays I think she goes close as she looks in career best form. Romantic Warrior @ 7/2 with William Hill Gold Trip @ 7/1 with William Hill and Bet365 Fangirl @ 6/1 with William Hill and Bet365 NB if having an e/w bet William Hill are going 4 places

Always love going to Plumpton and it is always busy probably because it is so easy to get to by train. You are nice and close to the action and I'm sure you will enjoy it.

No worries. Surprised he drifted to be honest. Has to do it the hard way as well as he came widest of all into the straight.

Saturday 7.15am sees the latest running of the Caulfield Cup. There will be a few familiar names and Joseph O'Brien has two runners and the Crisford's run West Wind Blows. Here are my thoughts on the runners. Gold Trip - Just got headed in the final strides in this last year, then finished 9th in the Cox Plate before going on to impressively win the Melbourne Cup. He won for the first time since when putting in a superb performance to beat a few of these in the Turnbull Stakes a couple of weeks ago. Has to give more weight away here, but if he's in the form he was a couple of weeks ago he might be capable of doing it. Without A Flight - Only finished 13th in last year's Melbourne Cup, but then went up to Queensland in May/June and won a G3 and a G2 in easy style. Had a break and then returned in the G1 Underwood last time over 1800m here a month ago and was an eye-catcher when finishing 6th behind Alligator Blood who won again last week. The step up to 2400m from 1800m is going to be ideal for him and he looks a big player. Breakup - As they have shown so often in recent years, the Japanese horses have to be respected wherever the go. Was well beaten by Equinox last time at big odds although clearly not a shock as he was big odds that day. His last win came over 2500m in November at G2 and he was 4th in a G1 over 3200m in April. He certainly has to be respected. Montefilia - Had started to become disappointing, but she's been good in her last two starts finishing 3rd in a G3 at Randwick and then won the G2 Hill Stakes last time at Rosehill. She did it well that day given she didn't get a gap until 250m to go. Probably needs to find more again here, but at least she is in form. Francesco Guardi - Certainly needs this trip as he proved last year when finishing 2nd in the Bart Cummings over 2510m and then winning the Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m. Started off over 1400m this prep then up to 1600m and then 2000m when 7th in the Turnbull. Has been running solidly and clearly be building up to this. West Wind Blows - Simon & Ed Crisford have sent him down after a very solid summer over here including a G3 win at Longchamp, 2nd in the Hardwick and a respectable run in the Eclipse. Was a huge run first up in the Turnbull to finish 2nd to Gold Trip and on that form he is weighted to reverse the form. I liked the way he kept finding to hold on for 2nd and he should improve from that run. He's drawn in 2 so Spencer will need to get him settled close to the pace otherwise the concern is he wont be able to get a run. If he does that he ought to be going very close. Soulcombe - Another ex-UK horse and looks to have an obvious chance. Was really impressive first up in a Listed Race here over 1700m and then has run really good races at G1 level when 4th in the Underwood over 1800 and then ran on strongly for 3rd in the Turnbull. 2400m is going to be ideal for him and again is weighted to reverse form with Gold Trip. Duke De Sessa - Used to be trained by Dermot Weld in Ireland and won a Listed Race on his final start in November at Naas. Has been settled near the back in all his 3 races in Australia so far and stayed on well enough in the Turnbull when 6th last time. Step up in trip is ideal and likely to be peaking here. Likely to have to travel very wide though given his run style and wide draw and I also think he would prefer a softer track. Hoo Ya Mal - 2nd in last years Derby and finished 12th in last year's Melbourne Cup on his first start in Australia. Had the fastest last 600m of the race when resuming over 1600m in a G2 at Randwick finishing 5th, was then 7th a couple of weeks later in the 7 Stakes also over 1600m and then was just run down late by Montefilia in the Hill Stakes. Clearly going to enjoy stepping up in trip and might just be in better form than the bare figures suggest. Right You Are - Won the Listed Mornington Cup in April and the 5th in the Underwood wasn't too bad, but was only 11th in the Turnbull and he doesn't look like being good enough. Emissary - Another who wasn't great in the Turnbull when finishing 12th and I'd be surprised if he won. Goldman - Another who doesn't look good enough and given he usually just about leads he's going to have to do some work to get over from 18. Okita Soushi - Royal Ascot winner in June when landing the Duke Of Edinburgh beating HMS President by a neck. Not sure he achieved a great deal in the St Leger Trial last time, but it has to be said that if this were a handicap in the UK or Ireland he would actually be getting less weight than he is from the other horses with UK/Irish ratings higher up the handicap. I don't really fancy him, but at the same time if he won I could see why did. Fame - 2nd in the Queensland Derby in May, but that wouldn't be good enough and not improved since. Bois D'Argent - Ran OK in The Metropolitain when 7th and he didn't get much luck in running, but given the winner Just Fine bombed out last week then I would be surprised if that form line was good enough. Spirit Ridge - Stablemate of Bois D'Argent and was 2nd in The Metropolitain. Usually makes the running, but can't see him making all. Valiant King - He has the same Irish rating as his stablemate and yet has even less weight to carry. He's very lightly raced and his only win was in a Navan maiden in May, but on his next start he was 2nd to Desert Hero at Royal Ascot. That is obviously strong form, but it was his next run that is even more eye-catching as he was only just beaten by Vauban and they pulled clear of the rest. Granted he wasn't so good on his last start, but I suspect that was being used more as a prep run ahead of his journey to Australia. Stall 1 can prove troublesome at times, but he has Jamie Kah on top so she is capable of delivering the goods. United Nations - Was a good 2nd in the Herbert Power last week, but would be a shock winner. Verdict - This is really competitive and to be honest it might be harder to find the winner than it will be of the Melbourne Cup next month. I'm going to put Without A Flight on top as this looks ideal for him. He was fancied for the Melbourne Cup last year, but the ground went against him as he needs it quick as he showed when going up to Queensland for his two wins. It will be quick ground here and his prep run was full of promise. I know Gold Trip is weighted to not finish in front of the 2nd and 3rd from the Turnbull, but I think he is worth more than the winning margin and the turn of foot he showed was seriously impressive. He is my main danger. Soulcombe didn't get the clearest of runs in the Turnbull and I don't think he was ridden quite as strongly as Gold Trip once out in the clear so he is next. West Wind Blows was game in that race to finish 2nd, but sometimes horses from the UK don't run as well 2nd up and his low draw does concern as he could find traffic. Clearly though if he does back it up then he can win. Valiant King is the other that really interests me especially on his Vauban form, but the draw just puts me off from making him a bet. Without A Flight @ 11/2 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair NB If having an e/w bet William Hill are going 5 places

No worries. I think alcohol free has gone and they would be better off retiring her and breeding from her. That’s 2 poor runs and 1 average run now in Australia from her.

The richest race on turf, The Everest, takes place at Randwick tomorrow morning. Not sure it is the classiest renewal of the contest but it certainly looks a competitive contest and here is my look at the runners. I Wish I Win - Landed the Golden Eagle last October over 1500m and followed that up with a 2nd and 3rd in G1's over 1000m and 1200m at Flemington last prep before winning the T J Smith over C & D in April. Just had the one prep run for this and that was 6 weeks ago so a bit unusual in Australian terms, but it was a very good 3rd. Handles any ground and clearly a big player. The one concern is actually the fact he is drawn in 1 because he is usually held up and he might need luck in running to win. Private Eye - Was 2nd in this last year, but that effort does stand out a little with the other form he has shown since. Did win 1st up in the G2 The Shorts here a month ago over 1100m and he did win a G2 coming into this race last year. On balance though I think he will do well to equal last year's effort let alone go one better. Think About It - Impossible to knock his record as he has won 10 times from 11 starts. He landed 2 G1s at Eagle Farm in May and June over 1300m and 1400m, but he is also 4-4 over 1200m so the trip is no concern at all. Really liked the way he dug in when Hawaii Five Oh came to him 1st up in the G2 Premiere over C&D a couple of weeks ago. Surely going to build on that and has a lovely draw in 5. A big player. Mazu - Has talented, but has work to do to overturn form with a view of these. To be fair to him he had no luck last time in The Shorts, but even so I can't see him winning this. Overpass - Landed the first version of The Quokka, which is WA's version of this, at Ascot in April. Followed that up with a 2nd to Giga Kick in a G1 at Doomben the following month. That's good form and he beat Amelia's Jewel in The Quokka who could win another G1 herself at Caulfield tomorrow. Just got caught late on by Private Eye a month ago, but should come on for that although his win in The Quokka was 1st up. Wouldn't be out of this on his two runs last prep. Looks the likely front runner from his inside gate. Buenos Noches - G3 winner 1st up over C&D in August and then looked unfortunate not to win The Shorts last time as he got no run until 200m and then hit the line very strong. He does need to improve, but has only had 9 starts and based on his two runs this prep he does look still on the upgrade. Hawaii Five Oh - Was only 6th in The Shorts and then looked like he would win the Premiere last time, but Think About It kept finding more to beat him. That suggests to me he needs to find more to win this. Alcohol Free - A horse who needs no introduction having been a superstar over here including winning the July Cup last year in great style. New connections paid a fortune for her and she was fav to win a G1 over 1600m on her first Oz run in April here, but she ran poorly to finish 10th of 16. Ran OK in the Premiere to finish 4th, but it didn't strike me as a run to suggest she would find more to reverse the form with Think About It. If she did find the form she showed to win the July Cup then I think she would be a big player, but I'm not sure she is at that level anymore. In Secret - Won half of her 12 starts including the G1 Newmarket at Flemington in March. Was well beaten behind I Wish I Win in the T J Smith on her next start though. Solid two runs this season with a 2nd in a G3 and 4th in The Shorts. 4 of her 6 wins have been over 1200m and to me those runs will have put her spot on for this race. Looks a contender to me. Espiona - Won the G1 Coolmore at Rosehill in March although that was over 1500m and she has only won one of her 6 starts over 1200m. Was impressive at G2 level last time over 1400m and I suspect she has the class to win this, but the trip might not be far enough for her. Shinzo - Landed the biggest 2yo race in Oz, the Golden Slipper in March under Ryan Moore. Moore went back over to ride him in the G1 Golden Rose last month, but got a poor draw and everything went wrong in the race as well. Clearly unexposed and wouldn't surprise me if he ran very well, but with the way the race planned out last time it is hard to be fully certain as to how he compares now he is out of 2yo company. Cylinder - The other 3yo in the race and was 2nd to Shinzo in the Golden Slipper. We do know however that he has done well as a 3yo because he won his first 2 this prep at G3 at Caulfield and a G2 at Rosehill. He then also ran in the Golden Rose and finished 3rd where he didn't get the best of runs either. He might have improved past Shinzo now. Verdict - For me Think About It looks the most likely winner. To win 10/11 starts takes some doing at this short of level and I loved the way he dug deep to win last time. I Wish I Win is likely to be the main danger, but I can't help thinking he's going to need a lot of luck from stall 1 given his running style. The Godolphin pair, In Secret and Cylinder look big dangers to me as well. Overpass could be the one at double figures if he can repeat his form from earlier in the year. Think About It @ 3/1 with Bet365

A very tough end to the season with plenty of shocks especially Stern Idol who dropped away just as tamely as he did in the Grand Annual. Hard to know why as it certainly wasn't stamina. Possibly he doesn't like getting pestered for the lead, but he's way better than that. There was talk they might bring him to Europe and I think at his best he's good enough to win a decent race over here. Crosshill annoyingly saw his saddle slip very early on and he had to be pulled up. Nelson's race was voided due to an injured jockey and Shakespere was a non runner. All that means I end up making a tiny loss for the season which isn't ideal, but sometimes that is the way it goes. Look forward to doing it all again from March.

A cracking final meeting of the season to look forward to at Ballarat with plenty of ex-European horses in action including Nelson. Stern Idol is not surprisingly a warm order for the Grand National at the end of the card. Race 1 Botti has run well in two hurdles starts in Australia having finished 2nd at Pakenham and then 3rd in a BM120 at Sandown. He goes back into maiden company here, but my concern is that he also drops in trip as he looks like he needs further based on his two runs so far. His jockey also said the same to the stewards after his Sandown run. He clearly has his chance, but chances are he will get going too late. Saint Eustace ran his best race yet over hurdles a couple of weeks ago when just being denied by 0.2L. If he can back that up then he has a chance, but he hasn't always looked the straightforward. Second Act is related to Stern Idol and has also come over from France although he failed to finish in a couple of hurdle races there. In Australia he's had 3 hurdle trials and has looked good enough in them. He has run in a couple of maidens on the flat as well finishing 2nd to Crosshill 1st up and then winning 2nd up. Clearly has ability and given how they train them in France he will have been well schooled before he even got to Oz. Shakespeare was 3rd on his hurdle debut a couple of weeks ago and was behind Saint Eustace. He travelled well for a long way, but faded after the last although he should improve for the run. Chatelaine won a BM78 at Sandown on the flat back in March, but hasn't been as good since. I did like the way he jumped in his trial a couple of weeks ago although he wasn't exactly put under too much pressure by the other runners that day. I think this is a tricky race to start with. Second Act has the potential, but he's priced up accordingly against some horses who have run well in maidens so far this season. I will take a small chance on Shakespeare who looked the winner for a long way, but should come on for the run and hopefully he can have more of a finishing kick here. Shakespeare 0.5pts @ 16/5 with Bet365 Race 2 Dr Colin is a fairly short price favourite here, but I am happy enough to take him on. He did win on the flat at Geelong last time, but it was only a BM58 so it was in the lowest grade. His trial hurdle win before that was only against 2 other rivals and I think he's been put in too short on the back of those efforts. Quota is 2nd in the betting at the time of writing and I don't fancy him much either. He was well beaten on the flat last time and his hurdle trials didn't so a great deal. The Awesome Sun, Raise Your Sights and What Revolution were 2nd, 3rd and 4th to Platinum Spirit a couple of weeks ago. I think the form will be upheld here as I liked the way The Awesome Sun battled on in the closing stages. I will back him and I will also back Three Over Two. There was some promise in his 5th at Sale and he followed that up with a 3rd at Pakenham just behind Platinum Spirit who finished 2nd. He finished closer to him than The Awesome Sun did at Coleriane so I will also back him as I think he's a solid yardstick. The Awesome Sun 0.5pts @ 9/2 with everyone Three Over Two 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365 and William Hill Race 3 All of these ran in various races at Coleraine a couple of weeks ago and Jekyll'n'hyde ran the fastest time. I was tempted to go with him, but I'm not certain that he is the best horse because that race was run at a strong pace which meant it was no real surprise the time was quicker. Platinum Spirit was visually the most impressive, but he's priced up accordingly. You can give most of the others a chance as well so it just looks another of those real tricky handicap hurdles we have seen in recent weeks so I'm going to leave it alone. Race 4 The feature hurdle on the card and at the time of writing Raise You Ten has been backed into favouritism. He has only had one start over hurdles and he took the opening maiden on this card 24 months ago when looking impressive. He clearly had an injury as he went missing 88 weeks. He's had a couple of solid runs on the flat so far this prep to help get him ready for this, but I just don't think he should be favourite. If this was a handicap he would be getting lots more weight from Bedford and to go straight from a maiden into this sort of company is tough, even if you are trained by Maher and Eustace. Bedford has really surprised me in recent weeks as he has really hit form. He took a winner of 1 at Warrnambool and then took the big hurdle on the Pakenham card a couple of weeks late. I thought he ran really well in the Grand National Hurdle last time, where it looked like he just didn't stay so the drop back in trip should help. He has the best hurdles form in the race and for me is the one they have to beat. Instigator was just 0.75L behind Bedford at Pakenham and wasn't that far behind him at Sandown so I'm sure he will run his usual solid race again. Dashing Willoughby finally won again a couple of starts back and was then 2nd in the BM120 on the Sandown card earlier in the month. He wanted to hang in behind the winner that day though and this should be tougher. I am going to be sticking with Bedford though. Bedford 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365 Race 5 The bookies have Nelson and King's Charisma as joint favs for this and preference for me is to go with the chasing experience of Nelson. I never did get to the bottom if Nelson was the first horse to run in the Arc and then to run over fences, but he was 2nd on his chasing debut before winning well at Coleraine a couple of weeks ago. He obviously has a big weight here, but he has the class edge for me over his rivals. King's Charisma is making his chasing debut and he has had a decent enough season over hurdles apart from last time where he was very disappointing. He's had 1 steeple trial and he jumped out to his right a bit which would be a small concern here and is one of the reasons why I would rather go with the chasing experience of Nelson. It's hard to see anything else winning as Nelson has the beating of a few of these already from the victory a couple of weeks ago. Nelson 2pts @ 6/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred Race 6 The Grand National Steeplechase is the big race on the card and I just don't see how Stern Idol gets beaten. He's only been beaten twice in Australia over obstacles that was in the big hurdle on this card last season and in the Grand Annual where he seemingly didn't stay. Bell Ex One who beat him last year bids to do the same here, but I don't think he's been quite as good this year and he looked a bit slow over his fences in his steeple trial. Stern Idol won the Crisp Steeplechase by 25L at Sandown last time beating a few of these in the process. That was over 4200m and he has 4500m here, but he would have won over 4500m at Sandown and that is more of a stamina test given the hill there whereas Ballarat is flat. Like I say I can't see him not winning. San Remo won the Grand National Hurdle at Sandown, but his chasing form previously was nowhere as good as his hurdles form. I guess he could have improved, but I can't see him improving enough to get near Stern Idol. Stern Idol clocked a 5 seconds quicker time as well which takes some doing. A few of these were behind Stern Idol in the Crisp, but I don't really see how any of them can reverse the form here. The one horse who I do think will run better though is Crosshill who was a bit disappointing at Sandown, but his jockey thinks the track didn't suit him and he will prefer Ballarat. I thought he ran well in the Grand Annual to finish 3rd and this shorter trip should suit him. We know he has the class from when he was trained in Ireland and he looks over priced to hit the frame. I know he's 1/2, but I think even at those odds he's value so will be having a max bet on him. Stern Idol 5pts @ 1/2 with everyone Crosshill 0.5pts to place @ 3.4/1 with Bet365 0.25pts to win @ 25/1 with Bet365

The final meeting of the season is at Ballarat on Sunday so I have done the totals for the season ahead of it. I have staked 93pts and the returns are 98.71 so a small profit for the season so far. Hopefully it will go in the right direction on Sunday and I can make it another profitable season.

Terrible last week especially Rockstar Ronnie who was a big disappointment. Onto Coleraine where we have 4 hurdles and a steeplechase. Race 1 I can't say I was very impressed with Cadre Du Noir's hurdles debut at Pakenham where he only finished 5th and whilst he has flat class I couldn't be backing him at odds on after the Pakenham effort. I've given Mount Stewart a couple of chances, but he's been well beaten twice now and he was poor on the flat last time as well. You have to think the ability he showed pre injury has disappeared. Platinum Spirit ran really well on his hurdles debut only beaten 0.2L into 2nd place by That's Incranibull in the race where the fav was 5th. If he builds on that then he's a big player. Raise Your Sights is the other one in with a chance after he finished 3rd at Warrnambool and then 2nd at Casterton last time beaten 2L by Dashing Willoughby. I am happy to take the favourite on here especially as we have a horse who beat him last time at a much bigger price. So Platinum Spirit will be the main bet, but I will have some coverage on Raise Your Sights as well as for me they are the only other 2 possible winners in the race. Platinum Spirit 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair Raise Your Sights 0.5pts @ 9/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred Race 2 Don't have a massive view here so will leave it alone. Will be interesting to see how Lincoln King as he has the flat class. Race 3 Rising Renown would have a chance in this 0-114 hurdle on his form earlier in the season, but he seems to have lost his way a bit in the last couple of months so I will pass him over. In the handicap at Sandown last week Laybuy, Rider In The Snow and Dr Dependable all ran in it finishing 4th, 5th and 6th. I tipped up the middle horse and he was really well backed into favouritism, but he was held up a long way out the back and he never really looked likely to win. Clearly better was expected and he might just improve for the first hurdle run for a while. The problem is his price is very short and I couldn't back him at 1/2 so I will leave the race alone. Race 4 Sky Hero has a chance going back over hurdles and down in grade from the last time he went over them and Heir To The Throne probably won't be too far away either, but I suspect either Field Of Lights or That's Incranibull will win. Both ran at Casterton last time with Field Of Lights winning the maiden over 3500m in impressive style. With Jackyll'n'hyde going in Race 2 he could boost the form, but it wasn't that strong a race and his previous hurdles run he was a well beaten 4th behind Frankenstar. That could be an important form line as That's Incranibull was just behind him at Casterton in the feature hurdle on the card. I thought that was a nice effort and hopefully Platinum Spirit can boost the form of his Pakenham maiden win in the opening race. I think dropping back in trip will suit as I don't think he quite saw out the 3500m at Casterton and given he's the bigger price as well I certainly he's the value in the race. That's Incranibull 1pt @ 2/1 with everyone Race 5 The feature race is the Great Western Steeplechase and it sees Mighty Oasis and Roland Garros do battle again after they finished behind Elvision at Casterton 3 weeks ago. There wasn't much between them that day with Roland Garros just finishing in front. I think he is likely to do the same here as well as I think he just has that little bit more class than Mighty Oasis and he might well get an easy time of things out in front, which he didn't get at Casterton as Elvision was always going to lead. Castrofrancaru did beat Roland Garros at Hamilton in May, but in really deep ground and he was turned over at 1/2 8 days later at Sale. He's had a couple of flat runs since, but I do think Roland Garros can reverse that form here. Nelson clearly has the flat class having run in an Arc and he ran well enough on his chase debut last time, but this is tougher. Under The Bridge has been a bit disappointing this season and has been behind the main fancies here including when 5th at Casterton. I wrote the above before the prices came out and I was surprised to see Nelson as favourite as I thought Roland Garros would be and he looks a fair bet. I also was shocked to see Mighty Oasis at a double figure price so whilst I wasn't planning to back him I have to have something on e/w as I'd have him 2nd or 3rd in the betting. Roland Garros 1.5pts @ 15/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair Mighty Oasis 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with everyone

Elvision did us proud a couple of weeks ago and great that he landed a lumpy bet at decent odds. Just 3 meetings left now and it starts off at Sandown where we have the Crips Steeplechase and the Grand National Hurdle. Race 2 The Crisp Steeplechase is the first jumps race on the card and it really is a cracking race. Stern Idol was very dominant last time and bounced back from his Grand Annual effort where he pulled up. He didn't stay that day, but he ought to be capable of staying 4200m and he is the right favourite. This is a conditions race rather than a handicap so the Grand Annual winner, Rockstar Ronnie, actually has to give Stern Idol weight here. We know he will stay and I suspect he will look to make it a real test of stamina to try and get Stern Idol beaten. He ran really well at Warrnambool last time when 2nd, but he showed a real will to win that day and I suspect he wasn't match fit given this and the Grand National Chase will be his aims. He was trained by Dan Skelton and we have Crosshill back over jumps as well who was 3rd at last seasons Punchestown Festival and has plenty of good form in Ireland. He was 3rd in the Grand Annual and he just didn't really seem to stay it out as well as the winner as he did look dangerous for a long way. He's been on the flat since and actually won last time so is in good heart. On his Irish form he has a chance and I suspect 4200m might be more his trip, but Stern Idol and Rockstar Ronnie both have his beating so far this season. He has been very well backed though as he was as big as 14/1, but I would say he was the right price now. Tolemac is the only other one to consider for me and he won the Australian Chase here earlier in the season. He was poor at Warrnambool last time though and this is tougher than the Australian Chase. For me the value is with Rockstar Ronnie and he really does look an e/w bet to nothing as he should be in the top 3 and whilst Stern Idol is the right fav, I'm not sure he should be quite so far ahead of the Grand Annual winner in the market. Rockstar Ronnie 2pts e/w at 5/1 with everyone Race 4 Like quite a few of this BM120 Hurdles of late this is wide open especially after the non-runners, but I think Rider On The Snow is worth a bet. He was impressive when winning his maiden at Warrnambool in May and the race has worked out pretty well. He's not been back over hurdles since and has ticked over on the flat and in trials, but I think he can make it 2/2 over hurdles here. Rider On The Snow 1pt @ 9/2 with everyone Race 5 A good edition of the Grand National Hurdle and it sees Bedford, Instigator and Bell Ex One lock horns again after the were 1st, 2nd and 3rd at Pakenham last time. I was a little disappointed with the latter that day after he had put in an improved showing when winning the start before. I'm not sure he wants this far either so I am actually not going to put him up for once. I was surprised Bedford won, but he was backed off the boards almost like he couldn't be beaten and he has clearly got a big chance here. I am though going to put up the 2021 winner Wil John as the bet. He was an amazing horse that year, but then he got injured after winning the Jericho Cup on the flat in November that year. He ran OK on his hurdles return when he was 7th to Bell Ex One, but am expecting him to come on form that run and if he does then I think he can win this for the 2nd year running. WIl John 1pt @ 9/2 with everyone

Race 1 Not a strong looking maiden. Field Of Lights is odds on fav and on his hurdles debut in 2021 when he was a close 3rd I can see why, but he was well beaten on his first hurdles run since when 4th at Hamilton. Possibly the better ground might help, but he's won on a heavy track before. He did run well when 3rd on the flat a week ago so does come here in good heart. I'm going to have a small bet on Resolutions though she jumped well in her hurdles trial last time. She ended up winning it although she was asked to quicken up after the last unlike the 2nd who had been well clear, but I still thought it was a nice effort and it would be no surprise if she was to improve on her flat form for a trainer who is good with this type of horse. Resolutions 0.5pts @ 10/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred Race 2 Dashing Willoughby is back over hurdles having run in a good race at Flemington a week ago, but he was well beaten again. He does seem to be going backwards over hurdles as well having finished a good 2nd on debut at Hamilton, but he was then 3rd at Warrnambool and followed that up with a 31L 5th at the same venue. All 3 races were on a Heavy 10 so I don't think that was a factor, but he probably will enjoy the better ground here. I'm going to side with Praise The Power though who has been more consistent over hurdles so far. He was a good 3rd over course and distance back in May and then was 4th not far behind Dashing Willoughby at Hamilton. He then had a break of 5 weeks before being beaten a length by The Rattlin' Bog at Warrnambool which was a good effort in the context of this race. He has the ability to win a maiden hurdle and it could well be this one. Once Were Lost isn't without a chance, but he's not run for a long time and might just need it, but his trials have been decent. Praise The Power 1pt @ 15/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair Race 3 That's Incranibull did well to beat Platinum Spirit last week in a maiden and that built on his 2nd on hurdles debut. He has a chance here. Frankenstar was 2nd on the same card in the BM120 Hurdle where the race ended up being every bit as close as it looked like on paper. They are the two dangers to the selection who is King's Charisma. He's been very consistent over hurdles and was 2nd to Frankenstar in a maiden at Hamilton back in May. He then won at Warrnambool before running a solid enough 3rd in the winner of 1 at Warrnambool which was won by Bedford, who of course won the big hurdle last week. This is easier and it looks a good chance for him. King's Charisma 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred Race 4 It was a hell of a performance from Mighty Oasis to win the Thackeray at Warrnambool last time where he just got the better of Rockstar Ronnie in a great battle down the straight. It was hard to know where that performance came from because he was stuffed in a maiden chase prior to that. If he can repeat his run last time he's a chance. Roland Garros was the BM120 on the same card when he led all the way, but I do think the front runners were favoured on the jumps course that day. He is a good horse though, but I'm not sure he should be heading the market. He was set to run here against Elvision a month ago when the meeting was called off and I put Elvision up as a bet at 7/4, yet now he is a much bigger price and I have no idea why. He was never going to win the Thackeray because the hedge fences at Casterton is where he produces his best and he's now won 5 times round here. He's even better off at the weights than he would have been a month ago and whilst Roland Garros is probably the best horse he has come up against I strongly believe Elvision should be the market leader so I rate him a strong bet at the odds. Elvision 3pts @ 4/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred