Darran

October 28, 2011

Re: England > FA Cup > Saturday 29th October Im sort of with you Jase but Lincoln have hardly been setting the world alight either and Im not sure about the new manager either as he didnt do much at Mansfield, but I can see why people would be interested.

October 28, 2011

Re: England > Blue Square BET North & South > 29th October Vauxhall Motors v Eastwood and Havant & Waterlooville v Farnborough A couple of league games have caught my eye and I think it’s worth backing both home sides in a double which pays 2.4/1 with Sportingbet. Eastwood have now only picked up two points in their last ten games and were thumped 6-1 on Tuesday night. Although things are beginning to sort themselves out off the field they still look a team who are going to struggle for victories in the foreseeable future. Motors aren’t one of the strongest teams in the league by any means but performances of late have been encouraging and they should win this. Farnborough have only picked up one point in their last six and the young team look to have lost all confidence, which showed in their 8-2 defeat at Truro on Tuesday. Havant aren’t having the best of seasons themselves but have won their last two home games in the Blue Square South and I expect them to take full advantage of a sorry Farnborough side.

October 28, 2011

Re: England > FA Cup > Saturday 29th October Chelmsford City v Gloucester City I start with a game I really didn’t want to have a bet on as I obviously have a pretty big emotional attachment, but I have to put my punting hat on and say that the 5/1 (bwin) on offer about the away side is too big not to have some financial interest in. Chelmsford are usually home bankers but that has not been the case this season and it took them until Monday night to gain their first home win in the Blue Square South, a game I was at. They beat Eastleigh 3-0 but Eastleigh didn’t really offer much opposition and it was pretty easy for the home side, Gloucester should certainly be sterner opponents. To be fair to Chelmsford they did host Tonbridge Angels in the 2nd qualifying round but overall they will be disappointed with their form to date. Gloucester City’s form has taken a turn for the better as they put seven past Truro in the last round (worth saying Truro have won both games since, being the first team to beat Dartford at home and putting eight past Farnborough) and easing past Blyth Spartans 4-0 as I tipped last week. They did lose on Tuesday night but the performance was encouraging as they did pretty much everything but score. Like I say, the prices baffle me somewhat as I would only have Gloucester around 5/2 to win and thus I have to dabble. Grimsby v Ashington I really am taking a flyer here as I am tipping up Ashington to cause a huge upset. Obviously Grimsby play in the Blue Square Premier which is Step 1 of the pyramid, whereas their opponents play in the STL Northern League Division One which is Step 5, basically it’s the same as a Premier League side playing a Blue Square Premier team. The Northern League is almost certainly the strongest at that level and many of the teams would be capable of holding their own higher up the pyramid. Ashington beat Blue Square North high flyers Guiseley in the previous round and given Grimsby are rather vulnerable at the moment they might just pull off another shock. The Grimsby managers Rob Scott and Paul Hurst fear for their jobs because of performances on the pitch and attacked their players’ character after their loss to Luton last Friday. That suggests to me that a game like this could be dangerous for them because you know Ashington are going to be up for it and if Grimsby think all they have to do is turn up and win then they could be in for a big surprise. I think it’s interesting to note as well that Blue Square are only 13/2 for an away win whereas bwin are a massive 12/1 and at that price it has to be worth a speculative punt. Kidderminster v Corby Corby owe this column one after they came back from 2-0 down to beat Hednesford 4-2 in the previous round, which was the only losing tip that week and I think they have a real chance of beating a Kidderminster side who are struggling for victories at the moment. They have only won four in their previous 12 matches and performances on the whole have been disappointing. They have been suffering from missing players through injury and suspension and some do return this weekend but that doesn’t stop this from being a tough game. Corby are a very solid side in the Blue Square North and they have only lost once away from home all season which, coupled with the fact Kidderminster have had some stuttering efforts at home, makes Blue Square’s 11/2 look attractive. Mansfield v Fleetwood So those are my three big price fancies for Saturday and now onto a couple of shorter price tips in games involving Blue Square Premier sides. I know cup form and league form can be two very different things but I think if you would fancy a team to win at the price on offer for a league match then you have to back them in the cup game as well. I have written a few times on here that the best performance I have witnessed this season in the Blue Square Premier is Mansfield’s 5-0 drubbing of Newport, however that is increasingly beginning to look like it was the exception to the rule as manager Paul Cox has been very damming of performances at Field Mill this term. They were really lucky to beat Alfreton 3-2 last Saturday as the away side were coasting to an easy win until they had two men sent off and Mansfield just about managed to make the difference in numbers tell. They won’t get away with that sort of performance against Fleetwood whose away form has been very strong this season having won seven of their nine games on the road. I don’t see any reason why Fleetwood will take their foot off the pedal and they have a strong squad anyway, especially with players finally returning from injury. Given the form Jamie Vardy is in at the moment if he plays he will probably score as well. The 11/8 about an away win looks a pretty fair bet to me. Southport v Stockport I think in hindsight I may have been wrong to have tipped Southport against Tamworth last week but I am certain that it is the right thing to do on Saturday. During the game last week captain Kevin Lee picked up a nasty injury and it seems the fact they had to adjust things on the pitch when he came off didn’t help. Obviously he will be missed on Saturday, as will a couple of others who are suspended, but I feel that having them missing from the start shouldn’t affect them as much as having to adjust during a game. I think the fact Stockport have drawn so many games has masked the fact the Didi Hamman has had a pretty tough start to his managerial career. County have only won three games all season and have even stopped drawing games as they have lost five in their last seven. They have looked a pretty average side the three times I have seen them on television as well and given Southport’s superb run of form the 11/10 that William Hill are offering about a home win looks generous

October 27, 2011

Re: Questions about pick-6 Ive seen the percentage's mentioned before but cant remember the exact figure but thought it is around 28. I would imagine if you looked hard enough you would find the info I know its out there somewhere.

October 25, 2011

Re: Questions about pick-6 Bet 365 and Betfred (who now run the Tote) are another couple of sites who take Tote bets. You just have to tick the box on the horses you want to back on the sites I have done a tote bet on. As for the placepot it depends on how many runners are in the race as to where your horse has to finish. Less than 5 it has to win, 5-7 first or second, 8-15 first, second or third and handicaps of 16 and over you get the first four places. Im not sure what the take out is I think its around 28% though. On the jackpot the min unit stake is 50p on the placepot Im pretty sure you can do 5p a unit.

October 25, 2011

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Oct 24-26 Well done Ships on your two. I spent ages thinking about backing Truro but I just thought even money was a tad short. I bet there cant be too many teams who two games after letting in 7 go and score 8.

October 25, 2011

Re: Questions about pick-6 We have a bet called the Jackpot where you have to find the first six winners at the selected meeting and you can place them online. You can also do the Placepot where your picks only have to be placed and its available on every meeting in the UK again its the first 6 races and the Quadpot which is races 3-6 and again your horse only needs to be placed.

October 25, 2011

Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Oct 24-26 I dont think there is a lot of value this mid-week so I am only having a couple of small plays. One is on the Met Police mainly because it looked like Hendon's minds were on Luton as they were well beaten 4-0 by Canvey Island in the FA Trophy on Saturday. At Paddy Power's 3/1 Im happy to have a small interest that they under-perform again and the Met Police are capable of taking advantage. The other bet I've had is a 5 fold on Corby, Basingstoke, Truro, Eastbourne and Sutton. Im more of a singles man but I found it hard to find value in any of their odds to back them singally but I do think they will all win and given profits are good this season I thought I would chance my arm on a quiet session for me.

October 23, 2011

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Prem October 21-22

It is a shame that they haven't got a game against Kettering in the near future...it would end up a five a side game!!

They played each other the other week and Kettering had a man sent off but amazingly Alfreton didnt. Its really hard to see Alfreton staying up already as even when they get into a position of winning or getting a point they shoot themselves in the foot.

October 22, 2011

Re: Form and the new whip rules Ruby Walsh has been banned now and the jockeys at Aintree nearly didnt ride in the 5.15. I still get the feeling they will strike at some point.

October 22, 2011

Re: England Â» Blue Square BET North & South Â» Oct 22 Sounds like Dartford's defence gifted Truro two goals in the opening 10 minutes and they never recovered from that. The other two were comfortable though.

October 22, 2011

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Prem October 21-22 That was a frustrating afternoon and will Alfreton ever actually manage to keep 11 men on the pitch?

October 22, 2011

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Prem October 21-22

Can anyone with a better feel of this league put me off Wrexham who on paper look tremendous value at 8/11? Wrexham are flying and have won 5 on the spin and entertain a Newport side who don't travel well and other than a win at Fleetwood have been very poor on their travels.

I find it hard to see anything but a Wrexham win, but Newport are getting better and it is a Welsh derby so you have to factor that into your bet I feel.

October 21, 2011

Re: England Â» Blue Square BET North & South Â» Oct 22

I'm surprised to see Alty placed at 3/1 (Corals) against Stalybridge. The Robins are starting to find some form' date= winning 4 on the bounce, including emphatic wins against decent sides like Colwyn and Boston. Stalybridge lost last time out, so there may be a slight dip in form there. It'll be a tight game I suspect, with any result possible, but I think Reeves is likely to be fit for Alty and that's enough for me to take these odds.

Not sure about Colwyn Bay or Boston being decent sides. My feeling is Staly are a cut above most in this division and Alty may be good at home but they have only won once on the road thus I reckon the price is fair enough.

October 21, 2011

Re: England Â» Blue Square BET North & South Â» Oct 22 Dartford v Truro The home side may have lost Charlie Sheringham to Bournemouth this week but I don’t see that stopping them scoring goals against a Truro defence which seems to have lost the plot. I have seen the highlights from their last two matches where they conceded five at home to Basingstoke and then seven in the FA Cup away at Gloucester City and although it was good play by both teams to capitalise, some of the defending was shocking. It seems that Truro’s off field problems are affecting some players more than others as going forward they aren’t so bad. They now travel to Dartford though who have won all six home matches and have only conceded five, whilst scoring 15. If Truro defend like they have in the last two matches then Dartford’s strikers should enjoy their afternoon and I’m happy to take the even money that Blue Square are offering on the handicap. Farnborough v Sutton United Sutton have recovered well since being hammered 5-0 by Woking on the first day of the season and they look more than capable of a strong showing this season as they currently sit in fourth place. They have only lost one other game and are unbeaten since August 27th. Their hosts on Saturday have had a pretty tough season after the massive overhaul during the summer and the team are taking their time to gel, with manager Gary Haylock even suggesting they aren’t good enough. They’ve only managed to score four goals at home whilst conceding 11 and it seems to me Sutton have a clear edge over their hosts, with even money generally available. Gloucester City v Blyth Spartans On the face of it even money about a team that have not won in the league since 27th August, and have only picked up three points since, doesn’t look a great bet, but I beg to differ. Confidence should be high in the Gloucester camp considering they put seven past Truro in the FA Cup last weekend and that suggests to me they should be more than capable of adding to the three league goals they have scored at home this term. Given Blyth have conceded 15 on their travels it certainly looks like the Gloucester strikers should enjoy some luck as they did against Truro. The problem for Blyth has been scoring goals, they have only managed two on the road this season and have scored just twice in their last six Blue Square North matches. With City only allowing four goals at home it’s hard to see Blyth having much luck. It will be pretty disappointing should City not fail to register their second home win against a Blyth team who are looking likely to be in a relegation battle this season. Skybet and VC are the places to bet if you want even money

October 21, 2011

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Prem October 21-22 Kettering v Ebbsfleet The price on Ebbsfleet has done nothing but contract since Wednesday and that is not a big surprise, but I still think that the 2/1 on offer with Paddy Power and Stan James is worth taking. I’ve watched them twice this season and they’ve impressed me both times, so it’s quite a surprise they haven’t won more games. They have now began to get some positive results and their form in the last six matches has been admirable, with three wins, a draw against Luton and two defeats against Wrexham and Gateshead, which isn’t any disgrace. I really think they can make it three on the bounce against a Kettering side who will be down to the bare bones on Saturday. They only had 16 players available for the game against Newport on Tuesday and with two of those sent off, including Adam Cunnington, who I mentioned last week as being a big factor in Kettering’s recent performances, I think they will struggle against an in-form and confident Ebbsfleet. Southport v Tamworth Both sides’ last defeat was at the hands of Braintree, for Southport that was seven games ago and Tamworth four. As I wrote on Tuesday, Southport’s run of form has been hugely impressive and to come back from two goals down against Gateshead really was a superb effort. While they are in this sort of form I think it’s worth continuing to back them. I know Tamworth have won their last three and are doing pretty well themselves but I just don’t think their form equates to as much as Southport’s and apart from their 4-0 win over Lincoln, performances haven’t been that strong. In my view the home side have a clear edge at the moment and I am happy to take VC’s 11/10.

October 21, 2011

Re: England > Weekend > FA Trophy Oct 22-23 I would say that they have chosen the games involving only the Step 3 clubs although this is without knowing who you are playing. I know Blue Square only price up FA Cup games involving Step 2 sides. I might be at the Dulwich v Harrow game on Saturday and I can see Dulwich winning although Im not sure theres much value in the price at 13/8 as Harrow are getting better.

October 19, 2011