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Darran

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    England > Weekend FA Cup > 11th - 13th November

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Weekend FA Cup > 11th - 13th November Not tips but my thoughts on the Luton and Fleetwood games. I have seen Luton and Fleetwood both advised to win this weekend and I can certainly see why as both teams were on my shortlist. The problem for me however is the price. Luton are best price 11/8 to beat Northampton but given their form against the better sides in the Blue Square Premier this season it is hard to make a case for the price being that short, despite the fact I do think they have a chance of causing a so called upset considering they are favourites to win the match. Fleetwood are also favourites to beat League 1 Wycombe and look too short at 13/8 in my view. I’d want at least 2/1 before I thought about getting involved. Fleetwood played a struggling Walsall side in the FA Cup last year and it seemed the whole world wanted to be on Fleetwood but they only drew before Walsall won the replay. Fleetwood are better this year but Wycombe are also a better side than Walsall. People will look at recent form but in their last two home games Fleetwood have beaten Bath and Alfreton whilst Wycombe have been facing the likes of Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton. Perhaps the best bet on the game is backing Jamie Vardy to score given the form he’s in. Fleetwood may well win but I think the bookies have taken no chances with the prices. Finally, I find it very odd neither game was chosen to be on TV.

    England > Weekend FA Cup > 11th - 13th November

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Weekend FA Cup > 11th - 13th November Newport v Shrewsbury A little bit of a strange choice by ESPN to show this game given Newport have not exactly been setting the Blue Square Premier alight this season. Indeed, apart from a superb win at Fleetwood it’s been tough going for the Welsh side, even if they have picked up a little under Justin Edinburgh. Maybe they had one eye on this game last week but they underperformed yet again when losing to Ebbsfleet at home. It is fair to say that Shrewsbury are better at home than they are away but they still sit in 4th place in League Two and Newport’s home form is worse. Their only defeat in the last six was against Crawley and I really do think they will be too good for Newport on Saturday lunch time. I am surprised even money (Coral) is available and that is worth taking. East Thurrock v Macclesfield Fair play to the home side as they managed to cause an upset in the previous round when they beat Blue Square South side Eastbourne. It is hard to know where that performance came from because they have really struggled in their first season in the Ryman Premier after promotion last season. Macclesfield are having a solid season in League Two, especially given they are usually in a relegation scrap. Their away form isn’t the best and it is a slight worry that they have only scored seven times on the road. The thing is they are facing the second lowest ranked side still in the competition and although I can imagine East Thurrock making it hard for them I fully expect the class and fitness of Macclesfield to win through in the end. I find it hard to see them repeating the Eastbourne performance and I think it’s worth backing Macclesfield to overcome the handicap at 7/5 with Bet 365. Barrow v Rotherham Here is one game I can see an upset happening despite the fact I find Barrow games the most frustrating ones to bet in, especially as they let me down again last week. Barrow’s home form has been strong this season and ever since they have been in the Blue Square Premier they have been beating the league’s better sides at home (they hammered Fleetwood earlier this season). They have also done superbly in the FA Cup, having reached the 3rd Round in the last two seasons and they also won the FA Trophy last year. Rotherham have been struggling after a good start to the season and had not won in ten before beating Aldershot on Saturday. Maybe that win will be the start of things turning for them but I couldn’t think of many tougher games against non-league opposition than having to travel to Barrow. VC go biggest about a home win at 12/5. Dagenham & Redbridge v Bath City Here we have two teams struggling in their respective leagues. Dagenham have only managed one win in their last 13 and have lost their last six league matches. They seem to be low on confidence and generally speaking they are being beaten quite easily. Bath have only won once in the Blue Square Premier all season, but they did travel to Dover and beat them in the previous round and performances have been a lot more encouraging of late. Last Saturday they came from two down to draw 2-2 against Grimsby and seem to be showing plenty of fight right now. Fight is something that Dagenham don’t have much of lately and I really think that could make the difference here. Bath have also managed draws against Luton and York so they have proven they can perform in the bigger matches. Bath have nothing to lose here and no pressure of having to try and stay in the Blue Square Premier, whereas Dagenham will be expected to win this and that puts plenty of pressure on already low on confidence players. A few bookies have Bath at 6/1 and I am happy to take a chance on them at that price. Hinckley v Tamworth Tamworth are another team who I have struggled to get right this season but they have generally been performing well and are doing a lot better than I thought they would this season. Hinckley are a poor Blue Square North side and I am not taking their 3-0 defeat of Darlington in the previous round at face value. It seemed to be the perfect time to be playing Darlington given they had just sacked Mark Cooper and the general form of the team. I fully expect Tamworth to offer much sterner opposition and I am sure the players will be looking to bounce back from a poor effort against Kidderminster last week. I find it hard to believe Hinckley are capable of repeating the Darlington performance and I would make Tamworth no bigger than even money to win this, so William Hill’s 7/5 is worth taking.

    England > Weekend FA Cup > 11th - 13th November

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Weekend FA Cup > 11th - 13th November

    AFC Totton vs Bradford PA – AFC Totton @ 1/1 with SkyBet, Betfred, Tote etc. Bradford PA were said to be ‘deflated’ after drawing AFC Totton away from home. They were hopeful of being pulled out alongside a Football League side in the draw but that didn’t materialise and they now face a tough trip down to Southampton. When I look through the FA Cup fixtures I tend to look out for the teams that face long trips before a game and Bradford PA were one of them. They are looking at well over a four hour trip down to the South Coast and that’s without any traffic taken into account. I would imagine they will be making the journey via a coach which will be an absolute motivation killer. To be fair they are doing well this season, sitting 5th, but they haven’t been tested so far on the road in terms of quality and AFC Totton are just that. They are 2nd in the Southern area of the Non League Premier (9W – 4L – 1D) winning five of those at home and will be well up for this clash. Due to Southampton not playing this weekend; the attendance is going to be significantly higher than usual and the Totton fans are bracing themselves for a sell-out. I would expect this to be a tight clash judging by the results of both teams but I feel with the long & painful journey for the Bradford lads and the extra support for the home side; I am more then happy to take AFC Totton at even money to prevail come five o’clock.
    Ive just tried to find out if they are travelling down the day before or not given the distance and the high profile nature of the game but couldnt see anything. Id be very careful about saying they havent been tested away from home given they went to Hyde in the last round and beat them 1-0 and Hyde have not even lost at home in the league yet. If your playing in the first round of the FA Cup as a non-league player Im not sure any journey would be a motivation killer either. Id say Bradford will look for a draw and get Totton up there on a Tuesday night. My gut feeling as well is that the Evo-Stik North is stronger than the Evo-Stik South.

    England > Weekend FA Cup > 11th - 13th November

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Weekend FA Cup > 11th - 13th November Those of you who read the non-league threads will know Ive been making plenty of money out of Southport of late and I thought I would be backing them again this weekend, but as it has already been pointed out Barnet seem a different side in Cup games to that in the league. Also performances havent quite been as high as they were from Southport and they were lucky to beat Kettering on Saturday. Corby are another team I am looking at but the issue I have is the price. I was able to back them at 11/2 to beat Kidderminster in the last round and they are only half a point bigger to beat a team in the league above and that doesnt seem right to me, need to give it more thought.

    England > Midweek Non League > 7th November - 10th November

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Midweek Non League > 7th November - 10th November The worse result for me given Im on Stalybridge for the title as Hyde win 1-0. Apparently they got rather sloppy in the 2nd half and Blyth should have scored but then I guess thats why theyve only scored twice away from home all season. Frustrating but hopefully tomorrow night will go better. Hopefully I might have managed to put people of backing Chelmsford at least, given their form at home they arent one to back at short odds on their own patch for me.

    England > Midweek Non League > 7th November - 10th November

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Midweek Non League > 7th November - 10th November Hyde v Blyth Spartans Hyde have been my only max bet so far this season and they decided to under perform when only drawing against Eastwood. Hopefully we can get some of that money back on Monday night as they host struggling Blyth. I have written a fair bit recently about Blyths terrible away form in the Blue Square North this season but just to repeat they have only two points and have only scored two goals, whilst conceding 19 in seven away matches. Given they have a massive game in the FA Cup against local rivals Gateshead at the weekend I can easily see them having one eye on that and travelling to the team who are second in the league is not something they will want to be doing. Hyde have won six and drawn one of their home games and thumped Histon 4-0 on Saturday. I can see it being another easy evening for Hyde and the 11/10 with Blue Square on the handicap looks worth taking. Maidenhead v Dover Here we have another team who could well have one eye on the FA Cup at the weekend in Maidenhead. Like Blyth Maidenhead face a local team in Aldershot and given their league form has been pretty woeful they look very opposable. They have had some cracking results in the Cup but they have not won in the Blue Square South for seven games now. Dover's away form has not been as strong as last year and even though they have had a change of manager they are still struggling for goals and in seven away games they have only scored nine. Having said that they have only lost twice all season and they should be good to sneak a victory here with the 13/10 with William Hill worth taking. I also think it is worth backing under 2.5 goals as Dover have only conceded six on the road and they look very tight defensively. Dover have actually only scored more than two goals on four occasions in the league and two of them came against bottom side Thurrock. The unders would have collected in 9 out of 15 of their matches which makes VC's quote of 11/8 look on the big side.

    England > Midweek Non League > 7th November - 10th November

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Midweek Non League > 7th November - 10th November

    I live in Chelmsford so know more about their team than most people... they have a good team and should be promoted this season. If they don't then it is a failure, as they have several players who could/should be playing in the BSP. Their home form has been strange but hopefully that ended in their last home league game, when they beat Eastleigh 3-0. I don't know as much about Dorchester, but they are definitely a class below imo. They have had away victories, but they have been against other poor sides. Akurang, Ibe and Modeste would easily get into BSP sides and if they perform then Chelmsford will have too much firepower for Dorchester to handle. The odds are too low for me but I wouldn't put off anyone from backing Chelmsford.
    Ive watched Chelmsford three times in the past couple of weeks and of they are to be promoted it will be through the play-offs as they arent as good as Woking. I dont rate Ibe and he didnt do much at all when I watched him. Modeste is a class above though although Chelmsford fans seem to think there is no end product with him. Id be careful about Dorchester as since they sacked the manager they have won both games and beat a very much in form Basingstoke on Saturday. The pitch was in a shocking state just over a week ago and that could be a factor. Eastleigh were poor and I expect Dorchester to be tougher opponents.

    England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet North & South; Northern, Southern & Ryman Prem Nov 5

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet North & South; Northern, Southern & Ryman Prem Nov Farnborough v Chelmsford and Staines v Sutton I have seen Chelmsford in their last three games and given what happened in the FA Cup I think it’s safe to say they owe me one. Without looking like they are going to win the league they are a decent enough outfit and considering what’s going on at Farnborough, they should win this easily. The home side have lost their last five and conceded 22 goals in the process, including 13 in their last two. Chelmsford have yet to lose away from home in the Blue Square South and the FA Cup this season and have won seven of nine. It’s very hard to see anything but an away win - as it is in the Staines v Sutton match. Staines have only won two games all season and I feel pretty fortunate to have backed them in one of those. Apart from that they have generally struggled, whereas Sutton have only lost twice and, as I pointed out a couple of weeks ago, that came back on August 27th. I was a bit surprised that Leatherhead took them to a replay and extra time in the FA Cup but apart from that they have been impressive and look destined to gain another three points on Saturday. The double pays 1.7/1 with Skybet.

    England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 5

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 5 Barton may have gone for five although its only four now, but I have gone for six bets in the BSP this week and they are all away teams as well. Darlington v AFC Telford I’m keen to oppose Darlington on Saturday as they look in a right mess at the moment. It seemed as if Mark Cooper had managed to save his job with three wins in four games but it appears that was just papering over the cracks as they then lost to Barrow and Braintree and not surprisingly Cooper found himself out of a job. They looked to have a really easy FA Cup draw as Hinckley are a poor Blue Square South side but were held to a draw at home before losing 3-0 in the replay. The players seem to have given up and they look pretty poor up front as they lack a striker who can score. In the league they have only scored 18 (only three teams have managed fewer) and I think it’s going to take a new manger coming in full time before things turn around. They host Telford who have only won twice since August and those came against Bath and Alfreton, the bottom two in the league. That is a slight concern but performances haven’t been too bad and they put on a decent show when beating Gainsborough 5-0 in the FA Cup at the weekend. That win should boost confidence ahead of a game against a vulnerable looking side. Take William Hill’s 3/1 about an away win. Kettering v Southport I have written plenty about the away side of late and they eased passed Stockport in the FA Cup last Saturday. With the good form continuing I see no need to abandon them yet and although their opponents have improved since Mark Stimson sorted the team out, I would say the fixture list has been reasonably kind and this is the toughest game they have faced for a while. Unlike last season when they struggled away from home, Southport’s away form is actually one of the best in the league and I am happy to take the 13/10 which is generally available. Kidderminster v Tamworth The home side where out-played by Blue Square North Corby over both games in the FA Cup this week. Corby should have put the game to bed in the first tie but even though Kidderminster took an early lead in the replay on Wednesday, Corby dominated for the rest of the game and duly won 4-1. Steve Burr mentioned afterwards that the squad wasn’t as strong as he thought it was at the start of the season and it certainly seems that way as performances haven’t been great. Tamworth on the other hand are playing well and are now unbeaten in their last five. I wrote last week how I regretted opposing them in the last set of league fixtures when they played against Southport in a game which was pretty even and ended up a 1-1 draw. New manager Marcus Law has put a solid side together and it’s easy to see them finishing above Saturday’s opponents come the end of the season. Betfred and Coral offer 9/4 about the in-form away team which looks pretty juicy to me. Lincoln v Barrow Here we have another former league team in a mess. I’m a bit surprised by the fact they made David Holdsworth their new manger but having said that they don’t have a lot of money to offer a new man or for him to be able to improve the squad. The club seem to be talking about just trying to avoid relegation which speaks volumes for the state they are in. They host a Barrow side who are quietly having a pretty good season as they are only four points off the play-offs, which, given they struggled with injuries earlier in the campaign, is a decent achievement. Striker Adam Boyes is on fire right now and scored all four Barrow goals in the FA Cup last Saturday. They have won their last three league games and I’d be surprised if they couldn’t make it a fourth against Lincoln. VC are best price at 15/8. Mansfield v Cambridge United I am going to oppose Mansfield at home again this week. They may have managed to draw with Fleetwood in the FA Cup last week but they were soundly beaten in the replay, although they were missing players because of a bug going through the team. So with Mansfield looking vulnerable at home I am happy to back a Cambridge side who are in decent nick at the moment and currently sit in fifth place. Interestingly both sides’ only defeat in their last six league matches came against Southport, but as I said last week, Mansfield were so lucky to beat Alfreton that you can almost count that as a loss as well. I think the bookies should have these two much closer in the betting and given there is every chance the Mansfield team could still be feeling the effects of illness, the 12/5 (Coral) on offer looks worth taking. Stockport v Hayes & Yeading Yet another ex-league side who are really struggling in the Blue Square Premier and although I’m taking a bit of a chance in backing Hayes, I do think Stockport are worth taking on. I pointed out last week how poor Stockport’s form is right now and when it comes to league form both teams have picked up four points in their last six games, whilst only two points separate them in the table. The thing is the betting doesn’t represent this and bookies have priced this up on the fact Stockport are a former league club. Getting Lloyd Owusu on loan looks a good move as well and although they have only won once away from home all season I’m taking a chance at the 3/1 on offer with bet365 and VC.

    England > Npower Football League Two & FA Cup > 1st - 2nd November

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Npower Football League Two & FA Cup > 1st - 2nd November It is new they only moved into it this season. I didnt bother putting it up mainly because I nearly forgot to back them and I knew Barton had tipped them up anyway, but seems as I backed them when they should have won on Saturday I had to go in again tonight. It looked hairy for a while given they went a goal down and the floodlight failure but Corby were dominate from start to finish.

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