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Darran

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Posts posted by Darran

    IS Ante-Post a scam?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: IS Ante-Post a scam?

    Maybe a tipster had put an antepost pick up but, between the bet being advised and the final decs coming out, the horse picked up an injury or the trainer confirmed it was targeted at another race. The horse was then left in the betting but the layers on BF pushed its price right out. To a novice, it was still going for the race and was available at monstrous odds, but in reality it was layers out to target less informed punters who hadnt kept on top of the news and thought it was still running. Can't imagine many horses being advised at 500/1 on the day?
    This is why Id love to know what horse it was and then we will know what the circumstances were. He is saying though that he backed it with a normal bookie and they wouldnt push a horse out to 500/1 they would just keep it the same price until it was confirmed a non-runner. Very few horses even go off at 500/1 and isnt the biggest SP of a winner only 250/1? Even someone who has only been betting for a year would realise this surely?

    England > FA Cup 1st Round Replays > 22nd - 23rd November

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > FA Cup 1st Round Replays > 22nd - 23rd November Aldershot v Maidenhead Those of you who read my non-league stuff will know I have opposed Maidenhead in their last couple of Blue Square South games as their league form is awful at the moment and they duly lost again on Saturday 4-2 to Weston-Super-Mare. The point I keep making is that in the FA Cup they seem to become a different side however and have had some cracking results in the competition so far, including the first game against Aldershot. They were arguably a little unlucky not to beat them at the first time of asking and although maybe that is their chance gone I don’t think they deserve to be 11/1 (Boylesports and VC) to gain a victory over their local rivals. Aldershot lost again on Saturday and if they play like they did in the first game then an upset could well be on the cards. At the odds I’m happy to take a small risk on Maidenhead. Tamworth v Hinckley Having backed Tamworth in the first game I am switching over to Hinckley for the replay. Again Hinckley seem to be like Maidenhead in that their cup form has been better than their league efforts, although they have at least picked up a couple of draws since the first game, including a point against Blue Square North leaders Hyde. Given Hinckley played most of the second half with just 10 men Tamworth really should have beaten them and not have to come from behind twice to force a replay. Tamworth were poor against Kettering in the league on Friday and only started playing once Kettering went down to 10 men. Like in the Hinckley game it was the keeper who was sent off, but Kettering didn’t have a sub keeper on the bench and I think this was the only reason they got a point. I think Tamworth are in a little bit of a rut at the moment and it would be no surprise to me if Hinckley can gain a victory here, just as they did against Darlington in the previous round. Bet 365, VC and Boylesports all go 5/1 on an away win. Bath v Dagenham &Redbridge ESPN are showing two replays this week. Tuesday sees Stourbridge host Plymouth and I must admit I was half tempted to back Plymouth at even money and if they drift anymore then I might well get involved. I am however backing Bath in the live game on Wednesday evening. I was on Bath in the first tie and the reasons I gave that day haven’t really changed so I am happy to get involved again. Bath went to the in-form team of the Blue Square Premier on Saturday and nearly came away with a victory but ended up losing 2-1 thanks to two very late goals. Dagenham also faced an in-form team in League 2 in Southend and performed with credit to only lose 3-2. The thing you have to remember though is there was a bug going through the Southend team in the run-up to the game and I think that gave Dagenham more of a chance than they would have had normally. I believe Dagenham would be midtable at best if they were in the Blue Square Premier this season and, as I said before the first game, Bath seem to be showing more fight right now so there isn’t a great deal between these two sides. VC and bet365 are best about a home win at 12/5.

    IS Ante-Post a scam?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: IS Ante-Post a scam? Just re-read the post again and the OP doesnt even check the result of the race he just looks at his betting account balance. Who on earth does that? Surely you would want to know what won the race? Also I dont see the difference between a daft bet and a stupid bet, they are the same thing in my view. I think the OP needs to explain what happened more. Id love to know who was tipping up a 500/1 shot.

    IS Ante-Post a scam?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: IS Ante-Post a scam? Up to the punter to do the research with any bet they make. If you know a horse probably wont run but is offered at shortish odds that will affect the market when its removed then you are getting a better price on the other runners. I saw on Tuesday that one of the trainers had said their horse wouldnt run in the Betfair Chase so I straight away backed Kauto Star so I still had three places each/way. Unless the horse is dead or injured I done see why bookies shouldnt offer a price on a horse. Like I say its up to the punter to know whats going on as much as they can before they put the bet on. As for the original poster I have to say it all sounds a bit made up to me. Id like him to actually name the horse he backed. If your backing a horse at 500/1 for a race which is only a week or so away then that just smacks of stupidity on your part.

    Tidal Bay

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Tidal Bay

    It should be mandatory public information that any horse has had any medical procedure. Paul Nicholls has history in keeping this information quiet. Remember Denman finishing 3rd in last years Henessy , he had a breathing operation the week after , but the public weren't told until 3 weeks before the Gold cup. That sort of information could drastically change the shape of the ante post market.
    Id say he was more honest than most to telling the public things like this, but I agree with your first sentance.

    England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet North & South November 19

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet North & South November 19 Nothing unusal with the Truro team but they all got letters from the chairman before the game so it will be interesting to see what happens. The team news for Gainsborough interests me and they are playing their young keeper again who has looked out of his depth at this level and I dont think its a coincidence that they have lost theit last two games which he has been in goal for. Boston arent anything special but at 5/2 I'm prepared to take a chance now its confirmed hes in goal

    England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19

    I haven't posted for a while as nobody was posting info that i was looking for. An example of what should be posted. There is also another away team with similar problems. Does anyone know who? A Little quiz for you! Tamworth v Kettering - A lot of kettering players up for transfer, wage reductions and disputes. Tamworth have also beaten them 3/3. Max Bet - 4/5 Ladbrokes
    I dont suppose you will come back on here but if you do thanks for your superb info. I hope no one followed him tonight. Well done again on those who backed goals.

    England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet North & South November 19

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet North & South November 19

    Spencer Day' date=' the new manager at Farnborough, was not wrong when he said he said in his resignation statement at Chertsey Town this week that he'd still be watching them - he's just bagged another four Chertsey players for Farnborough, taking the week's total to six. It's a big step up for players in a side that's 10th in the Southern 1 Central and I've no idea how he'll merge the squads.[/quote'] Id imagine its going to harm Chertsey alot more than it improves Farnborough. Its a shame we cant all lump on whoever they are playing tomorrow.

    England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet North & South November 19

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet North & South November 19 Truro v Tonbridge Angels I have mentioned the Truro situation a few times but it seems things have taken a turn for the worse. It is worth taking a look at this article http://nonleague.pitchero.com/news/truro-heading-for-crisis-point-8298 and reading for yourself what seems to have been happening. Now manager Lee Hodges has said that the story is rubbish but in my view there is no smoke without fire and I would be surprised if there isn't a fair bit of truth in that article. They host Tonbridge on Saturday and they seem to be improving, having won fiveof their last seven matches. Their away form is nothing special but both away victories have come in two of their last three games away from home. I think at bwin's 8/5 it's worth having a small play and if you get a chance to check the team news closer to 3pm on Saturday then have more if it looks like Truro are missing players. Weston-Super-Mare v Maidenhead As I wrote last week when I opposed Maidenhead with Dover, their Blue Square South form seems completely different to their FA Cup form. They lost that game 4-1, got a fantastic draw against Aldershot and then on Tuesday lost to Hampton &Richmond. They have only managed to pick up two points in their last eight games and it is not hard to think their minds are going to be firmly on Tuesday's replay with Aldershot. I accept that Weston aren't doing quite as well as they were earlier in the season, but they did gain their first win in six games in midweek and got a great point at Dartford last Saturday, so things look on the up again. The home side are generally available at 5/6 to pick up the three points and that looks good to me.

    England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Alfreton v Gateshead As I have mentioned a few times, the home side look as if they are really going to struggle to stay in the Blue Square Premier this season. The two big problems they have is that they struggle to keep 11 men on the pitch and also they can't defend. In six of their last eight league games they have conceded three or more goals and of course Carlisle put four past them in the FA Cup on Saturday. Gateshead aren't doing quite as well as they were earlier in the season, but are still doing more than well enough to see them beat Alfreton. They had a pretty easy afternoon in the FA Cup last week when beating local rivals Blyth Spartans 2-0 and could well be in for another comfortable afternoon here. Bet365 go 5/6 on an away win which looks good to me and I also think it is worth backing them on the handicap which is available with a few bookies at 2/1. Ebbsfleet v Darlington Yet another former struggling league side travel to Kent to face Ebbsfleet. Last week it was Stockport and the home team scored two late goals to win 2-1 and continue their superb run of form. Darlington may have beaten AFC Telford a couple of weeks ago but that isn't taking much at the moment and they are yet to announce a new manager. There are also rumours that they may be forced into administration at some point so it's safe to say not all is well at the North East club right now. Ebbsfleet have already been backed for this game but 6/5 is still available with Coral and I think that is still a reasonable price. AFC Telford v Mansfield You may remember that I tipped AFC Telford to beat Darlington a couple of weeks ago but they lost yet again, as they did in the FA Cup last week when they put in a shocking effort to lose 4-0 to Chelmsford. The fact is in the league they have only beaten Alfreton and Bath since August and although they generally only seem to be losing by the odd goal, something is clearly missing. Mansfield have been an odd side this season but have only lost once away from home and although they went down to Cambridge in their last match they did put in a good effort. They have had two weeks since that game and have regrouped and refocused as they look to get themselves back up the table. Mansfield are capable of being in the play-off race and this looks a decent game for them to get three points from. Coral are best price at 13/10.

    England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 Ive had a look back through godofhorses previous posts and the last time he posted anything in a non-league thread was the famous Weymouth v Rushden game a couple of years ago so I suspect he is hoping it is going to be a repeat of that. At the moment it isnt going to be like that to my knowledge. I remember the massive gamble on Eastbourne when they went to Chester with it being suggested they werent going to have a team available. Turned out Chester had a pretty strong side out and were winning the game before the game had to be abandoned so these things dont always come of. Also as Ships has mentioned the fact you are tipping at a shorter price than you can get is pretty poor.

    England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19

    in Non League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Nov 18-19 I think you can get bigger that 4/5 or you could when I checked earlier. The Kettering players have been on the transfer list for a while now so that is old news. I have seen it mentioned that players will be leaving and if that it is the case then I might get involved, but I find little value in that price on Tamworth to be honest. For me Kettering have been playing better of late although they werent great against Sutton, but then Tamworth were just as bad against a worse side in Hinckley. I think its a game to be careful with and if Tamworth do win I will let them win at that price unless some more news comes out before Friday night. Also Id be interested as to what info you are looking for exactly?

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