erhaab1965
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Posts posted by erhaab1965
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Re: The Ann Stokell Thread Agree with the comments , no need for negativity towards her. Not sure why there has been no activity this year , maybe she's retired ? I know she was no spring chicken. Tabby why don't you start a thread on alleged bent jockeys. I'm sure you'll think of a decent opening statement and i'm sure it'll attract a few posters.
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Re: Becoming A Winning Player Just realised that some of you may not know who D Nicolson was. He was a champion NH trainer who retired in the 90s and his assistant was Alan King.
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Re: Becoming A Winning Player Watch out for factors not linked to form ! I have mentioned some of them on another thread so wont repeat them all but heres a few more gems i have utilised to make a few quid over the years. Watch out for trends. Some trainers like to win certain races or prefer to win at certain tracks. One example is Luca Cumani at the Ebor Meeting during the 90s. He won the Listed Galtres Stakes 8 times on the trot.Once i picked up he favoured that race i looked forward to august and managed to back his final 3 winners of that race blind with minimal use of the formbook.He has not had many runners in that race in recent years maybe due to the fact the Aga Khan sacked him as a trainer. Watch out for races honouring somebody with a close connection to a racing stable.There was a race named after David Nicholson and guess who won it......yes Alan King of course ! More recently a race was in honour of the late Paul Kellaway a trainer who passed away during the 90s. Who trained the 1st and 2nd in that race ?............yes you guessed corrctly , it was Gay Kellaway his daughter. Of course over 95% of the time you should rely on form . However i guess that maybe up to half a dozen times a year you can predict the outcome of certain race using nuggets of triva in your head.
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Re: The Ann Stokell Thread Last year she moved stables and had a few runners from her new base but i dont think i've seen her in action this year.The star of the show was undoubtedly Pawan a class handicaper on his day given the circumstances , i even landed a tiny bet at 33/1 on him.It aways put a smile on my face when she rode a winner which if i recall was not that often. As for making money laying her horses , i doubt very much could be made , her horses were often 25/1 or bigger therefore on the exchanges they would have been bigger still.How much activity would there be on her horses ?
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Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? During the early 90s there was a big article in the Racing Post about Harry Findlay (prior to his invovement with horseracing) and he was saying he regularly had bets like £33k to win £1k on snooker and tennis matches because they were sometimes overpriced even in his eyes ! For the avarage punter like us winning £1k would be significant , but most of us wouldn't risk £33k even if we had it despite a higher degree of certainty.If your avarage stake per event was £10 or less then it may apear to be pointless betting in events where they are that short. Findlay didn't explain his staking plan but i assume by reading subsequent interviews in later years he often put most of his bankroll on single events.
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Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house?
You wouldn't back the horse with money' date=' but you would back it with the returns from a bet on another horse (which is what you are doing when you back it in a double)? Sorry, but that makes absolutely no sense to me whatsoever.[/quote'] I'm not sure why you say it makes no sense whatsoever ? Yes exactly as you say . 1/9 is far too short for a single but i'd be happy for the winnings from another bet to ride onto a 1/9 shot i fancied. If my estimated returns on a selection was £300 i'd be happy to let it ride on a 1/9 shot in order to get an extra £33. Not a lot of peoples cup of tea but it depends on the individuals actual stake. If someone was staking 50p increments then the advantage would be neglibile however for somebody betting £50+ increments then it may be worthwhile. -
Re: "The Cup" - A True Story I backed it on the basis of his brother dying a few days before. Another punt landed based on factors outside of form.
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Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house?
Totally agree. If I'm having a larger bet then it will often be a short priced horse. I'm not going to risk a large bet on a 25/1 shot. For me one winning short priced horse will pay for several longer priced EW shots. Of Walters big bets that mirrored mine were both of Frankel's last 2 wins . In my opinion they justified big bets although i sweated a lot in the St James Palace Stakes. In a year i will only have a few big bets and thoses were 2 of them.I regularly do favourites at evens to be placed or win and I rarely lose! Yes it's luck to an extent but they favourites for a reason god damn it. Unless the jockey f's up then corse the better horse will win. Put usain bolt up against any other sprinter who will mostly win!!!??? Imagine putting say 1 grand on every frankel race. Silly bet!??? I think not if it wins it's best bet of the minute -
Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? Dont see how yesterdays 1/9 shot could be deemed a worthy bet. As you say the risk to gain ratio doesnt make it a good bet no matter how good the horse is. If i fancied it i would have put it in a double with another fancy horse , risking only one betting stake instead of 2. If you're betting short priced horses on a regular basis then getting another 10/30/70 % extra in the form of a double makes it worthwhile.The extra return often aliviates the pressure when backing a loser elsewhere. Also if you are going to bet at very short odds then it may be wise to watch the TOTE pools. L Dettori rode a 1/66 winner back in the 90s , however those clued up smashed the TOTE win , effectivly paying 1/10 !! Since that race the TOTE have amended their minimum payout and have reduced it to 1/20.Walter if you are going to bet on anything shorter than 1/20 then do it on the TOTE. Long odds on shots do lose on occassions remember N Henderson's Zaynar at Kelso in the Champion Hurdle Trail losing at 1/14 !
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Re: Barry Hills Appreciation Thread!!
You mention Declan Murphy , what an absolute con job !!!! Why did people lump on a week before the actual race ? His mount was Jibereen in a Flat vs Jump Jockeys race. How often do you see ante post betting in a class D or E or F ? handicap ? It was totally fixed in order to give him a fairytale comeback ride. I know it was 20 years ago but it still iritates me when i think about it.from google: Big-name jockeys have a good record on their comeback rides of late. Frankie Dettori, Dean Gallagher, and before them Declan Murphy, were all successful when making a return to the saddle after lengthy absences. fallon after his ban Hayley turner after her injury two more that spring to mind, not sure if they won or not though but seem to recall it Richard Quinn may have been another -
Re: Barry Hills Appreciation Thread!! When trainers/jockeys have their retirement rides they strangely win more often than not.Did Barry Hills's final runner benefit from the favourite going wide allowing a wide passage for him to end with a win ? Anyone recall A Dobbins retirement ride ? He was beat on the odds on favourite Ballyvoge but the jockey in front virtually pulled his mount up to allow the dream retirement win.Judge for yourself it was very recently. I think there is an unwitten rule to let retiring rides win.
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Re: Barry Hills Appreciation Thread!!
Definately you can make a few quid regardless of form. I recall L Dettori winning his comeback ride for D Nicholls after his plane crash. More recently W Davies and T Scudamore after injuries.yeah for sure, but it is strange that jocks/trainers often win with thier 1st horse out or back after a long lay off etc i reckon you could make a few quid when these occur or is it just the fact that some do and these are highlighted Good luck to him hopefully -
Re: Barry Hills Appreciation Thread!!
Twice disqualified trainer Paul Blockley has just ended his ban. He is quoted as saying something like somebody setting up as a trainer today must be mad. At the same time of ban expiry his partner sets up as a trainer. Jo Hughes is the new training name of Paul Blockley. Zafisio won a Gr1 on Blockleys final start before moving to other trainers. He reappeared under Jo Hughes tutelage in the Gr1 Juddmonte last week.Just saw this trainer Jo Hughes today... Had his first two runners at Hereford and the first one was 2nd @ 22/1 and the other one won @ 4/1.... Anyone know anything about him??? Have not seen him about before -
Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? I also think it is important to have a firm staking plan in place. This will help prevent you going on tilt and blowing a lot of your betting bank if you have the willpower. Wizzkids staking got progressively bigger and bigger , 1 point or 1.5 points were the norm at the beggining through to bigger stakes more recently. I'm no betting genius but from experience betting 10% of your bank on one selction is a path to ruin.
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Re: Backing odds on shots long term - the quick way to the poor house? I like Wizzkid's thread , on occassions it mirrors my own personal bets , so i take particular interest. I did ask a couple of questions once querying his methods and i think his feelings were hurt and responded in a rant which was not my intention to upset him. I do believe you can profit from short priced favorites if you are selective. Around 50% of my bets are on favorites and whilst i admit i do not make a massive long term profit i am very happy if my betting bank lasts a long time without topping it up.If I'm being honest my bets on longer priced horses / ante post bets are paid for by betting on favorites , so my leakage is when going for bigger priced punts. There are a few areas of his method which i disagree with which include betting on once/twiced raced maidens which previously came 2nd /3rd especially when there are unraced types from Newmarket yards.I know a lot of his selections are these particular races but personally i find these types of races are one of the worst types of betting races especially from september onwards.I do find he is sounding niave when he says " ....should be odds on ...." or " ...should break his maiden tag ...." Saying that i do hope he perseveres and makes a profit.
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Re: Owner strike rates Hope some of you were on Barry Hills final race at Bath , decent price too !
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Re: Barry Hills Appreciation Thread!! Michael and Richard have more big race wins between them than probably the top 20 jockeys combined . Probably only L Dettori and K Fallon have more. Hanagan and De Souza have recently had more winners but they are nowhere near in the same league as the Hills twins in terms of accomplishments. But saying that i genuinely believe that one day Hanagan and de Souza will one day become top class riders.
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Re: Forecast prices Racing Post if you become a member which is good for the replays. Betfair's overnight prices are almost refective of how they will be priced in the morning.
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Re: Barry Hills Appreciation Thread!! Ebor day today , and i have fond memories of landing a punt on Barry Hill's Sanmartino in the Ebor. Went on to be a decent stayer also i think it was one of Khalid Abdulla's better hurdlers , who incidently beat Moonax his St Ledger winner over hurdles.
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Re: Barry Hills Appreciation Thread!! A top trainer with decent horses year in year out. Also his sons Michael and Richard are absolutely outstanding top class jockeys. One of my favourites of his was one called Further Flight. A very good stayer during the 80s / 90s . I remember having a monster bet on him in the Cesarawitch about 20 tears ago but came second , however i got it all back plus more when he won the Jockey Club Stakes on numerous occassions. He was even winning as a 12 year old.
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Re: How do horses get such strange names? Passing Wind , R Guest. They're all flooding back now.
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Re: How do horses get such strange names? Backside .....? Cant remember second part of the name , Irish trained very recent.
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Re: How do horses get such strange names? One from the 90s but can't remember the full name it was Uranus ****? Mark Dwyer used to ride it . ( No pun intended .) Ran in the Scottish National . Tabby any ideas ?
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Re: How do horses get such strange names? Crack at Dawn , which i posted on the wrong thread and ran recently. Another rude one , anybody remember Prince Albert from about 10 years ago ? Makes my eyes water !
Dougie Costello on Folk Tune
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Dougie Costello on Folk Tune Folk Tune didn't find much when asked to quicken after the last hurdle and the winner fought back gamely. Think Costello was uber confident and wanted to win by the narrowest of margins and thus paid for it by losing. The way he was travelling he should have taken it up before the last and would have won by a dozen lengths. I've seen this hundreds of times by even the best of jockeys and it will always happen in the future. I personally would like to see longer bans of 3/6/12+ months. If they had these lengths of bans jockeys would ride out their mounts in fear of a long ban.