only1woz

We all know the vast majority of newapaper tipsters are as hopeless as the man on the street. You only have to look at the Racing Post Naps Table to see how many of them are consistantly in the red.
So it got me thinking, what if I layed their tips. Obviously not everyone in the Naps Table, and not just Naps. Most tipsters have to give a tip for every race, whether they want to or not. Lets face it, unless you're an addict, why would you bet in every race?
So I carefully chose one tipster who seems particuarly bad and have paper tested laying every single tip over the last three or so weeks.
And it makes for interesting reading, though I'm not sure the amount of data gathered is enough to press forward with real money.
How many tips determines whether a system is good or bad? 100? 500? 1000?
Anyway, here's some data I have gathered. I'd welcome some input about whether it's worth pursuing.
All bets are subject to 5% Betfair commission, and I'm paper laying them to a nominal £2 stake. All prices are Betfair SP.
 
Lays: 539
Losers (successful lays): 421
S/R: 78.11%
Profit: £186.34 (93.17 pts)
ROI:  3.32%
Average odds: 6.22
Average odds of winners: 3.59
Biggest odds winner: 17.5
Shortest odds loser: 1.05
Highest odds: 60
Bets at odds higher than 20:  14 (no winners)
Bets at odds higher than 10: 83 (6 winners)
Bets at odds below 2: 74 (5.79 pts profit)
The 500+ bets were over 24 days, but it was during the adverse weather when some meetings were lost.
I'm thinking of paper trading until I get to 1000, which should take another two weeks or so I reckon.
 
I know it can be time consuming, but it could be automated using software like Gruss.
 

Laughing last night at the comments on the Grim Reapers thread so I decided to give this a whack.
Will keep the games to England, Scotland and the 6 main leagues in Europe.
Will base it on the Half time results .... home teams home half time results will be taken into account and same for the away team.
The outcome must be 50% or better and the odds must be evs or better.
Will try and fit as many matches as possible in over the weekend but will post them as early as possible.
Usually would not dabble in Martingale but might wager £31 on this.
Main bets will be flat stake of 3 Pts
Will have a look at the 50% after the first weekend.
Tonight
Alaves v Levante  @ Evs  3 Pt Win   and  £1 Win (Martingale)

WOLVES have scored in 8/10 aways [2+ in 6] and were down to 10 after 15 mins and missed a penalty in their away fixture at Sheff Utd. They have a shots-per-game average of 10.9 [ ave of 4 on target]
Sheff Weds have conceded in 8/10 homes [2+ in 2]
No notable absentees for either side.
Odds - 2.20
 
MONACO have scored in 6/8 aways [2+ in 4] and have a s-p-g avareage of 9.6 in all aways [3.4 on target] . Their one doubt is mid-fielder Jovetic. The 2 aways they failed to score in came against top 8 opposition  , St Etienne are in 15th
ST ETIENNE have conceded in 7/9 homes [2+ in 3] and more importantly will be missing 2 defenders and a central midfielder due to suspension .
Odds - 1.87
l  

GETAFE 0-0 no obvious excuses
CRYSTAL PALACE 2-2
DERBY 0-3
VERONA 0-2
MAN CITY 1-2 so far but the bets in



Bets - 34

Wins - 19

Profit/loss to 10pt stake = +63.90pts

It doesn't look as if BBC is going to publish the SAM predictions for the Monday game 
So, I post the update including Sunday's Watford v West Ham game - the correct result, but not the correct score. I have adjusted the font - so, I hope it is easier to read.
The ROI on 1-X-2 system moves up slightly to 62% - but still VERY early days.

Not looking to go pro mate, I'm too old for a start, and I get enough grief as it is just with the amateur lads lol.
As for sterling, I get what you're saying. I don't want you to take this the wrong way mate, but you're looking at it from a fans point of view. Unfortunately there is no "common sense" in this situation, he either was too exuberant in his celebrations or he wasn't. If Mike Dean didn't book him then it's almost certain that his assessor in the stand would have marked him down for it. Especially as it's actually a health and safety issue. Young kids can get hurt when the crowd surges forward in that situation. All the players know the rules so it's up to them to stay on the right side of the law. Mike Dean ultimately did his job fully so imho shouldn't be criticised for that, the player should.

Not looking to go pro mate, I'm too old for a start, and I get enough grief as it is just with the amateur lads lol.
As for sterling, I get what you're saying. I don't want you to take this the wrong way mate, but you're looking at it from a fans point of view. Unfortunately there is no "common sense" in this situation, he either was too exuberant in his celebrations or he wasn't. If Mike Dean didn't book him then it's almost certain that his assessor in the stand would have marked him down for it. Especially as it's actually a health and safety issue. Young kids can get hurt when the crowd surges forward in that situation. All the players know the rules so it's up to them to stay on the right side of the law. Mike Dean ultimately did his job fully so imho shouldn't be criticised for that, the player should.

@only1woz - great insight, amateur referee or not.  
Looking to go Pro?  

Thank you very much.

They may be of the opinion that the referee seen the incident well enough to make his own decision, I'm not sure. When I'm being a linesman and I see an incident I think should be addressed then I need to think about whether the referee has seen the incident and just decided differently to me. That's important, because he is the man in the middle and we may not always agree, but it's ultimately his decision. If I feel he hasn't seen something and I have, then I definitely bring his attention to it. Maybe the same scenario with VAR?
 
As for the red, yes his intention is, in my opinion, to hurt the other player. In my opinion it's one of those situations where he uses the fact that the ball is there as an excuse so he can say "I went for the ball" but in my opinion he went to hurt him, so red for me. I think if the ref sees it from the other angle he probably agrees with me.

There is video assistant referee now, so if they did not say anything to the referee, I supposed they agree with referee decision?
One other question, when you say it should have been red card, you say it because the player in red have intention of doing that?
Thanks again @only1woz

No worries, be happy to. Anything you want my opinion on just tag me in here, same goes for anyone else.

As an amateur referee I'd say no penalty. The ball is actually too high for the attacker to reach it, it's goig over his head whether he gets that slight nudge from behind or not.

I can see why he's given it, but it's not a pen for me.

Sorry mate I've been dead busy this week and actually forgot about this lol.

He's been sent off for denying an obvious goal scoring opportunity. His man is clean through on goal if he doesn't pull him down. There is a defender in the centre but I don't think he's going to get across so it's a definite red.

Now, obviously a yellow can be shown in these situations now, but thats only if the defender has made a genuine attempt for the ball, which is clearly not the case here as he's hauled him down and the ball is well away. Hope that clears it up for you

As an amateur referee I'd say no penalty. The ball is actually too high for the attacker to reach it, it's goig over his head whether he gets that slight nudge from behind or not.

I can see why he's given it, but it's not a pen for me.

JUVENTUS v ac milan 2-1

REAL MADRID v betis 2-1

CLUB BRUGGE v st truiden 2-2

MUNICIPAL v suchitepequez 1-0

Bolivia - U SUCRE v real potosi 0-2


Harsh reminder = Stick to the rules ..... , Discipline is everything .


Fri
---

FEHNERBACHE v konyaspor 10-0-0 , 1.44


Sat
---

RIED v altach 9-0-1 , 2.75 [Austria]

NANTES v nice 5-0-0 , 2.50


Sun
---

LEVSKI v botev plotev 16-0-0 , 1.50 [bulgaria]

PSG v lyon 5-1-0 , 1.50

PORTO v setubal 15-1-0 , 1.17

Having been interested in only1woz's home underdog system I decided to have a look at something similar myself and it seems to have been relatively successful, generating a fair profit over the last month. Therefore I've decided to share it on here and see if this first month success can be repeated.
There are two 'systems'. System A takes into accounts the odds and form. System B then takes the selections from System A and considers if there is any home field advantage or outsider advantage in that particular league.
Starting bank will be £100. Each bet will be £1 and odds are taken from bet365.
Finally - this is a paper system only, I am not staking real money on this and I wouldn't expect others to do so. If you do it's at your own risk!

Sat
---

RIJEKA v istres 1961 7-1-0 , 1.20 [Croatia] [1.36]

MECHELEN v waasland beveren 5-1-0 , 1.75 [1.80]

CELTIC v dundee 11-1-0 , 1.13 [1.17]

JUVENTUS v roma 5-0-0 , 1.70 [1.75]

WEST HAM v hull 4-0-0 , 1.65 [1.67]

So the odds in brackets are the home team Over 1.5 odds.






Here's a few more with respect to the Over 1.5 goal market..

estoril V BENFICA 0-0-5 , 1.40 for Over 1.5 BENFICA goals

AUSTRIA VIENNA v mattersburg 16-7-0 [18-7-0 inc cup games] 1.50

W BREMEN v koln 7-2-1 [8-2-1 with cups] 2.20

Everton at home to arsenal @4.5. I'm in work and forgot about the midweek card so I'll post up properly later on.

Nice to see the system behaving itself now haha. A winner for each part this weekend which is all good
10.12. LEICESTER man city 5.30 £81.70 4.10 -£10.00 4 1 10.12. COLOGNE dortmund 5.50 -£20.00 4.50 £33.25 1 1 ------ WEEKLY TOTAL ------ £61.70 ------ £23.25 ------                 ------ OVERALL TOTAL ------ £104.40   -£139.15 ------

Nice to see the system behaving itself now haha. A winner for each part this weekend which is all good
10.12. LEICESTER man city 5.30 £81.70 4.10 -£10.00 4 1 10.12. COLOGNE dortmund 5.50 -£20.00 4.50 £33.25 1 1 ------ WEEKLY TOTAL ------ £61.70 ------ £23.25 ------                 ------ OVERALL TOTAL ------ £104.40   -£139.15 ------

You're probably right. Only 3 times from 18 matches has the away side won by more than one goal so definitely worth looking at. I'll add it into my selections from now on. Cheers Curly.

Better this week.
26.11. BURNLEY man city 11.00 -£20.00 6.00 -£10.00 1 2 26.11. EIN. FRANKF dortmund 5.60 £87.40 4.40 -£10.00 2 1 27.11. SOCIEDAD barcelona 6.80 -£20.00 5.10 £38.95 1 1   WEEKLY TOTAL   £47.40   £18.95                   ------ OVERALL TOTAL ------ -£23.30   -£142.40 ------

That's his returns, obviously you still need to take his £3 stake off it to see what his profit will be

Both the above,score draws,Caen 1..1 and Metz 3..3 to give a profit of £13.89+£190.99 new bank £204.88
glory hunt done
i will carry this thread on as these are cheap decent interest bets,if it loses 100 points from any point i will consider closeing it down