vikki37

Krazy paving pipped on line 2nd ....elzaams dream 3rd 

1798 result: 2-1.  Won £85.71
Profit to date £1874.33
Thanks Gooner!!  Quite a nice start to the New Year, let's hope I can keep it going.

1st I see You Well 
2nd Cheque En Blanc
3rd Young Turk
not much between them either with all 3 in with a chance approaching the end. Quite pleased with that regarding ratings.

Starshiba wins, with top two not threatening. 

2nd and 3rd ...ew money....ratings are so accurate ...both value bets 

1st 3rd 2nd    mr jack value bet wins .....now we are getting somewhere 

2 out of 2 on the TD scorers last night, 40 points returns 105 for a 65 point profit.
105.9 points up overall.

Snowed off today , so will have a crack at plumpton, once I’ve got back from snowboarding with kids ?

Group N played out tomorrow. It had to be one of the highest overall quality groups we've had so far :
There are a good 3/4 capable winners in this group. Lisowski is the favourite and that's no real surprise with his current form. I like Dott here though. Dott has a nice start and if he can get a few wins under his belt then he has every chance of finishing the day on top. The other that looks like a spot of value is Michael White. Brecel/White/Higginson all are great players on their day but White at 7/1 looks a great outsider shot.
2pts G.Dott to win Group N 5/2 bet365
1pt M.White to win Group N 7/1 bet365

1797 result: MALI won 1-0.  £72
Profit to date £1788.62

1796 result: Olympiakos won 1-0  Won £66.67
Profit to date £1716.62

As expected ....power over me won ...grey galleon placed so the top 2 again provided winner and 3rd.....

I'll start with today's race ......run a side by side comparison .....all horses within the top rated band if a profit can be made  .....with any value bets that are in the top rated band only   ....it might turn out that these types of bets are rare but when they do occur they are Rock solid bets especially ew ....I definately think specialising is the best way to use these bets given the evidence ......the top rated form bets if they make money might be good on their own right too we shall see 

My top rated are also the winners. The 10-1 yday was top rated as many others.

That's what I mean the top rated are winning a lot but sometimes are a shade outside the value but still win anyway .....theres a lot of winners coming from top 2 or 3 .......I suppose what that's saying to me is the value bet shouldn't be backed unless itsxwithin 0.8 if top rated on my scale if you want it to win .....if your happy to go for a place then you can extend this range.....makes perfect sense if you think about it .....if your form ratings are accurate ...then if your value bet is 3rd rated 1.0 behind top rated then it's going to struggle to beat top rated under normal conditions regardless of value....you really need a combination of the 2 to be fully effective

Having a small debate with myself this morning ......yesterday I noticed that all horses within 0.8 of top rated provided nearly all the winners .....the ratings as,a form tool alone are really good.....but the winners are not  necessarily the value bets .....they are placing yes which corresponds to the value bet but the higher rated less value horses are winning  ... .. ....in tge above race that would mean the winner most likely narjes or violet lad ....as you can get 9/2 or 8/1  on both is that such a bad bet or any less value if they win if theres only 3 or 4 horses highly rated ????...making money is the name of the game after all ..I'll keep an eye on how they perform side by side with the value bets

Oxford United (1) 1.75
Sunderland (1) 1.70
£10 double, please. Thank you. Good luck all. 

1792 result: 1-1.  Lost £60
1793 result: L 1-0, Won 2-0.  Lost £20
1794. JESUS scored.  Won £100
Profit to date £1749.95
 

Two winners today 10-1 and 5-1.

Dashel drasher wins ...from Benny's king .......the ratings are fine so I'm happy with that ....the rest is just luck on the day ....it'll come 
Top 4 rated in each race today produced .....
1st and 4th 
2and and 3rd 
1st and 4th
1st and 2nd 
Gottabe happy with that from rating perspective so that's definately where the winner finding shoukd come from...top 4 rated only....learnt a lot today 

Royal pigalle won... crievehill 4th ....gonna be one of those near miss days I think 

2nd and 3rd  ??

Yeah and Dan's le vent ran on for 4th ?...but yes he became a value bet later 

Yet to find a winner in these little mini-leagues. It's actually surprised me how many favourites have won the group, when you think it's just a "best of 3" match. It seems less random than the Championship League, which is a best of 5. Anyway, despite a poor start, I'll keep going. Group A tomorrow :
I thought Murphy (although amazing at times), looked quite average, on the whole, at The Masters. I'm not sure I can back him here at odds on. I'm not keen on Holt because he hasn't ever done well at the Championship League (although he has won the shootout) 
If I had to pick somebody in the top 3 of the betting, it would be Holt. I'm going to take Ken Doherty though. Ken actually has a good record against Holt and if he can get a good start going then his 8/1 could look very big. I'll throw change at Ochoiski too, but that's more for a value interest.
1pt K.Doherty to win Group A 8/1 betfred
0.25pts E/W B.Ochoiksi to win Group A 100/1 betfred

Me too but im off for next 5 days so I'll post loads races in the morning ....some good races tomorrow hopefully