ogii55

The odds were great and a pretty close match
Stojanovic - Marincovic 3.27 Pinnale
ITF Cairo
Stojanovic's ranking is not impressive, but she beat in the semis number 1 seed player, who is Top 350. Marincovic has a very easy road to the final, except the semifinal, which was against Top 475 player in a pretty close match. Stojanovic form is impressive. She will play in the doubles final. Her single semifinal was very long, almost 3 hours, but then she played like a new in doubles semi and won pretty easy. The fitness will be the greatest concern for Stojanovic, but with this odds I think it is worth to try her.

Guarachi - Zidansek 5.00 Bet 365
ITF Santiago
 
Guarachi is returning after long absence. She played very strongly here smashing good opponents. Zidansek is a class up, but in home she could be capable to score a surprise win. Zidansek wasn't impressive so far. Yesterday she was loosing 0:3, 30:40, before turning around everything and scoring nice win. She is also playing a lot of matches including her participation in doubles tournament. Not sure if odds like 5.00 are to be missed.

Guarachi - Zidansek 5.00 Bet 365
ITF Santiago
 
Guarachi is returning after long absence. She played very strongly here smashing good opponents. Zidansek is a class up, but in home she could be capable to score a surprise win. Zidansek wasn't impressive so far. Yesterday she was loosing 0:3, 30:40, before turning around everything and scoring nice win. She is also playing a lot of matches including her participation in doubles tournament. Not sure if odds like 5.00 are to be missed.

Well, even though cagnina lost the match it proved to be a very nice trading position indeed. With the break up up imai was hardly a favoriete at the bookies and depending on the scores in the game a lot of times even the underdog. Cagnina eventually broke back and even became a 1.4x favorite at some point. And even after imai won the set, imais odds reached 1.7x again in the first game of the second when cagnina had breakpoint. So there weer a lot of opportunities for people who layed imai at those ridiculous odds during the rain. Hopefully this made up a bit for the Hernández match! Cheers

Finally a correct pick.
Now up to ITF Santiago
Rodriguez - Zidansek 3.75 Bet365
Rodriguez beat two weak players without problems at the first two rounds. She is mainly a hard court player, but this season the Mexican shows nice improvement on clay. She is capable to beat Top 200 players and showed it  a month ago. Another big plus for Rodriguez is that she is playing for second week in Santiago, while Zidansek must travel from Valencia and to make up 6 hours time difference. Zidansek needed 3 sets yeasterday against weak player in single and then played another doubles match, so she was around 3 hours in court. Rodriguez finished her job in one hour. Still Zidansek is the favorite, because she adores clay, but maybe the more realistic odds are 2.75 up to 3. Anything more is a value.

ITF Hua Hua
Ka - Tamchaiwat 2.72 Pinnacle
Ka beat Tamchaiwat last week from set down. Here she continues her good run with wins over strong oponents. Tamchaiwat is the favorite because of her ranks, but except her last match the previous opponents have been very week. It's 50/50 match with nice odds for Ka.

Finally a correct pick.
Now up to ITF Santiago
Rodriguez - Zidansek 3.75 Bet365
Rodriguez beat two weak players without problems at the first two rounds. She is mainly a hard court player, but this season the Mexican shows nice improvement on clay. She is capable to beat Top 200 players and showed it  a month ago. Another big plus for Rodriguez is that she is playing for second week in Santiago, while Zidansek must travel from Valencia and to make up 6 hours time difference. Zidansek needed 3 sets yeasterday against weak player in single and then played another doubles match, so she was around 3 hours in court. Rodriguez finished her job in one hour. Still Zidansek is the favorite, because she adores clay, but maybe the more realistic odds are 2.75 up to 3. Anything more is a value.

ITF Hua Hua
Ka - Tamchaiwat 2.72 Pinnacle
Ka beat Tamchaiwat last week from set down. Here she continues her good run with wins over strong oponents. Tamchaiwat is the favorite because of her ranks, but except her last match the previous opponents have been very week. It's 50/50 match with nice odds for Ka.

Govortsova (-6 games) vs Hozumi 2.66 Pinnacle
 
Govortova showed good tennis last week, but suffered some stomach virus. Now she is back in Top 200, but her place is in Top 50. Hozumi is nothing special and currently is out of form. It will be a fast and brutal execution if Govortsova is capable to produce her form from last week.

Popko - Pavic 2.31 Pinnacle
 
Popko is in great form. He won two features in a row and beat convincingly Yuya Kibi, who is better ranked than Pavic. Popko showed some good results on hard this year, while last year he beat Khachanov on the very same event. Pavic is all serve kind of player, who still couldn't find his best game.

The bet of the week
 
Govortsova/Rodina vs Chepede/Melicar 2.10 Pinnacle.
 
Rodina and Govortsova are in great form. Rodina won a tournament last week, while Govortsova reached the semifinal, where she retired because of gastro intestinal problems (now she must be fully recovered). They already played together as a double and are class on hard courts against Chepede and Melicar, who are in awful form both in doubles. Govortsova is former numer in doubles. I expect the odds to fall seriously in the next hours.
 
 
 

ITF Cairo
Marrow - Kakuya 3.04 Pinnacle
Two no hoppers, but here the difference is that Marrow played several matches in North Africa tournaments and even scored win or two. Kakuya is coming back from injury. She is noting special and I can't see why she is favorite here. Kakuya lost from worst players than Marrow. 50/50 match with nice value on it.
 
 

Elie J. - Andrianjafitrimo T. 2.14 Pinnacle
Another nice shot at earlier odds, which I think are going to change during the day. Elie won very easy her match yesterday against young and talented opponent. Her next rival was very convincing, but against he girls who are out of Top 600... The form and the level of both players is very different. Elie is the favorite here and I am sure she will become the favorite among the bookies in few hours. I took her when she was 2.20.
 
 

Huge respect for all your insight! This is one of the most interesting sections of the forum. I am always happy to read your opinion, which is very valuable! Wish you good luck for next year. I agree with you about the Final four. It was very interesting to see how Djokovic's form dropped down, when he didn't have the challenges of Nadal and Federer. This is something natural in sports. You need strong rivals to keep yourself strong.

Kozlov (-2 games) - Sandgren 2.01 Pinnacle
 
Kozlov leads 3:0 to Sandgren always covering this handicap. Their last encounter was two tournaments ago, when Kozlov won easy. Now he had easier road to the final playing less sets. Sandgren plays good and showed nice tennis against Laaksonen, but I think here he will have problems.

Elie - Dabrowski 2.87 Pinnacle
 
'These continuation bets often are misjujed and based on emotions on previous winning bets. I am trying to avoid them, but here I made a try to analyse clearly the facts. Elie showed superious skills against good opponents so far in the event. Yesterday she missed 3-4 matchpoints in the second set and I was thinking that she will tilt in the third set, but once again she took a lead 4:0 and 40:15, then her opponent returned to 4:3, but at the end Elie won the match. Dabrowski is very good on doubles, but her way to the final was very easy. Her best opponent was ranked 450. She won in style the semifinal, but here will have far more tough challenge. I still can't understand why the oddsmakers are underestimating Elie, but this is good for us. This match is at least 50/50 IMO, so there is nice value!
 
 
 
 

Winter sports are comming and the seasons already started. Here is a thread where we may exchange opinions.
I will start with the first round of Biathlon World cup
10 km sprint Men
Wiestner - Iliev 2.85 Pinnacle
Iliev leads the H2H from last season in sprints with 5:4, so this is pretty close, better than the odds. The current form of both is also pretty equal. They participated in the mixed relay, where both of them were one against other. Wiestner needed 3 bullets against 3 for Iliev, but still managed to give a slightly better times.

I am browsing around ITF events and saw two nice lines that worth a try
Hua Hin ITF tournament
Yu Ahn - L. Zhang 2.38 Pinnacle
Ahn is playing very well and already scored some good wins against Top 500 players. Zhang is out of form. She is struggling a lot and maybe her best days are over. It's a 50/50 match with some nice edge among the odds towards Ahn.
 
Akiyama - Momkoonthod 5.5 bet365
Momkoonhod is 4W - 12L this season She is trying to get some points, but with such a level of play it will be very tough. Her rank is making the odds in favor, but Akiyama already scored two wins in the tournament, two in the qualifications and one in doubles. She made some surprise wins this season against better opponents than Momkoonthod so here Akiyama got another chance.

You need to be disciplined and to follow some of your own personal rules in order to be a successful in a long term. There are a punters, who are making a living from tennis betting. 5% is realistic and in time you could be able to raise it. But remember - discipline and good bank managment is the key. I suffered a lot in the past from bad swings that destroyed my bank (not once:) even that I made a good hits.

Kozlov (-2 games) - Sandgren 2.01 Pinnacle
 
Kozlov leads 3:0 to Sandgren always covering this handicap. Their last encounter was two tournaments ago, when Kozlov won easy. Now he had easier road to the final playing less sets. Sandgren plays good and showed nice tennis against Laaksonen, but I think here he will have problems.

Elie - Dabrowski 2.87 Pinnacle
 
'These continuation bets often are misjujed and based on emotions on previous winning bets. I am trying to avoid them, but here I made a try to analyse clearly the facts. Elie showed superious skills against good opponents so far in the event. Yesterday she missed 3-4 matchpoints in the second set and I was thinking that she will tilt in the third set, but once again she took a lead 4:0 and 40:15, then her opponent returned to 4:3, but at the end Elie won the match. Dabrowski is very good on doubles, but her way to the final was very easy. Her best opponent was ranked 450. She won in style the semifinal, but here will have far more tough challenge. I still can't understand why the oddsmakers are underestimating Elie, but this is good for us. This match is at least 50/50 IMO, so there is nice value!
 
 
 
 

Huge respect for all your insight! This is one of the most interesting sections of the forum. I am always happy to read your opinion, which is very valuable! Wish you good luck for next year. I agree with you about the Final four. It was very interesting to see how Djokovic's form dropped down, when he didn't have the challenges of Nadal and Federer. This is something natural in sports. You need strong rivals to keep yourself strong.

Huge respect for all your insight! This is one of the most interesting sections of the forum. I am always happy to read your opinion, which is very valuable! Wish you good luck for next year. I agree with you about the Final four. It was very interesting to see how Djokovic's form dropped down, when he didn't have the challenges of Nadal and Federer. This is something natural in sports. You need strong rivals to keep yourself strong.

The Cilic bet above is indeed going to be my final bet of the season, so let's sum things up a bit. Well, it was a very strange season to say the least. Looking at my record, it was perhaps the most streaky of all seasons that I was involved with, I had a tremendously bad run around the French Open and then these last three weeks were also incredibly annoying. On the other hand, there were some great streaks in as well, most notably around the US Open. My biggest regret of the season was not backing Ricardas Berankis against Milos Raonic at a massive price in Basel - I really had a hunch there, but I chickened out with just the overs and was left in some bitter disappointment. The lessons to be learned is that we might be in for some turbulent times in that there will be no Big Four anymore and that things will become somewhat less predictable for the favourites, which should leave some space for value bets on underdogs. I see Raonic getting a Grand Slam win somewhere in the next two years, he's definitely made a lot of progress in 2016 - some mental stuff to fix, as he's still tight in the tough spots, but perhaps it's all about getting that one big breakthrough win and things will start to come together after then. Zverev and Thiem are set to make it big, but they might both still need a year or two.
On the women's side, I think that Angelique Kerber has what it takes to become a very dominant force in the next season or two, she's certainly the most complete player on the scene bar Serena. Not sure what's going to happen with Pliskova, as she's recently fired her coach for some reason and that might not go down too well, wouldn't be a shock to me to see her floating around the no. 20 spot after next year - she has the talent to win a couple of Grand Slams, but somehow I don't think that she's got the same hunger as some of the other competitors. There will be at least one surprising Grand Slam winner in 2017 on the women's side imo - Elina Svitolina is the most conservative guess, with the wilder ones including Naomi Osaka (yep, I do think that she could be the real deal) and Laura Siegemund (changed my mind about her, have to admit).
And, with that, I'd like to wish everyone an enjoyable December and let's hope that we're going to get some exciting tennis action in 2017!

Another one from Astana
 
Ilkel - Karlovskiy 2.5 Paddy
 
Ilkel changed the level this season and started to attack challengers. He reached the final of one in late September. The Turkish player will have more time to prepare for this tournament, while Karlovskiy was in Kuweit for two features, where he lost from bad ranked players.