2016 Off-Season

[CzechPunter]

Not sure how much there will be to bet on, as the IPTL league is going to be considerably smaller&shorter. But hey, if those exhibitions and miniscule tournaments are your thing, you're welcome to share your picks and thoughts .

[WWWYKI!]

Can we hijack this into a future prediction thread for next year? Who's going to exceed/fail expectations? Or maybe it would be better to have another thread for outrights/specials 2017. I'm hoping to find some strange angles before the new year starts.

[CzechPunter]

Sure, that's a good idea actually, I really can't see much action worth following in December. Just checking...Paddy Power already have some 2017 specials up, Unibet only a few, but they should have a lot if their last year's activity is anything to go by.

[ogii55]

I am browsing around ITF events and saw two nice lines that worth a try

Hua Hin ITF tournament

Yu Ahn - L. Zhang 2.38 Pinnacle

Ahn is playing very well and already scored some good wins against Top 500 players. Zhang is out of form. She is struggling a lot and maybe her best days are over. It's a 50/50 match with some nice edge among the odds towards Ahn.

 

Akiyama - Momkoonthod 5.5 bet365

Momkoonhod is 4W - 12L this season She is trying to get some points, but with such a level of play it will be very tough. Her rank is making the odds in favor, but Akiyama already scored two wins in the tournament, two in the qualifications and one in doubles. She made some surprise wins this season against better opponents than Momkoonthod so here Akiyama got another chance.

[ogii55]

ITF Cairo

Marrow - Kakuya 3.04 Pinnacle

Two no hoppers, but here the difference is that Marrow played several matches in North Africa tournaments and even scored win or two. Kakuya is coming back from injury. She is noting special and I can't see why she is favorite here. Kakuya lost from worst players than Marrow. 50/50 match with nice value on it.

 

 

[ogii55]

ITF Cairo

Gogol - Bourguignon 4.75 Pinnacle

Gogol scored nice win over former Top 400 Bonic, who was in nice form reaching semifinal on 10k tournament last week. It was huge surprise. Burguignon is nothing special. She made 8 DF in 7 service games in a match that he was clearly far more superior player.

[ogii55]

ITF Hua Hua

Ka - Tamchaiwat 2.72 Pinnacle

Ka beat Tamchaiwat last week from set down. Here she continues her good run with wins over strong oponents. Tamchaiwat is the favorite because of her ranks, but except her last match the previous opponents have been very week. It's 50/50 match with nice odds for Ka.

[ogii55]

Finally a correct pick.

Now up to ITF Santiago

Rodriguez - Zidansek 3.75 Bet365

Rodriguez beat two weak players without problems at the first two rounds. She is mainly a hard court player, but this season the Mexican shows nice improvement on clay. She is capable to beat Top 200 players and showed it  a month ago. Another big plus for Rodriguez is that she is playing for second week in Santiago, while Zidansek must travel from Valencia and to make up 6 hours time difference. Zidansek needed 3 sets yeasterday against weak player in single and then played another doubles match, so she was around 3 hours in court. Rodriguez finished her job in one hour. Still Zidansek is the favorite, because she adores clay, but maybe the more realistic odds are 2.75 up to 3. Anything more is a value.

[Crespo]

Well, after the Vega Hernandez farce, I'll try one more time. Cagnina - Imai in the Indonesia F4 futures in Jakarta. Cagnina was a 1.5x-1.6x favorite at the bookies. Just before a rain delay that is still going on now, Imai broke for a 3-1 lead in the first set, but now people already want to back him at Betfair for odds in the 1.4 and 1.5 range, which are crazy prices. With Cagnina a clear favorite and just trailing one break in the first set, maybe odds should be evens or Cagnina should still be a small favorite imo. At least laying Imai would make for a nice trading position, both at Betfair and at the bookies when the match will continue. Good luck, and hopefully def more luck than in the previous match lol.

[ogii55]

Rodriguez was game, but the class is a class.

One match from AO WC tournament

Di Wu - Duck Hee Lee 2.21 Pinnacle

The H2H is 2:2 with the last win from this season is for Di Wu. Lee is playing very bad recently. He struggled a lot in his last match against a player who is number 900 in the world. Wu also isn't so convincing, but he seems to play better. Wu loves hard surface and I put him at least in the equal terms for this match.

[Crespo]

21 hours ago, Crespo said:

Well, after the Vega Hernandez farce, I'll try one more time. Cagnina - Imai in the Indonesia F4 futures in Jakarta. Cagnina was a 1.5x-1.6x favorite at the bookies. Just before a rain delay that is still going on now, Imai broke for a 3-1 lead in the first set, but now people already want to back him at Betfair for odds in the 1.4 and 1.5 range, which are crazy prices. With Cagnina a clear favorite and just trailing one break in the first set, maybe odds should be evens or Cagnina should still be a small favorite imo. At least laying Imai would make for a nice trading position, both at Betfair and at the bookies when the match will continue. Good luck, and hopefully def more luck than in the previous match lol.

Well, even though cagnina lost the match it proved to be a very nice trading position indeed. With the break up up imai was hardly a favoriete at the bookies and depending on the scores in the game a lot of times even the underdog. Cagnina eventually broke back and even became a 1.4x favorite at some point. And even after imai won the set, imais odds reached 1.7x again in the first game of the second when cagnina had breakpoint. So there weer a lot of opportunities for people who layed imai at those ridiculous odds during the rain. Hopefully this made up a bit for the Hernández match! Cheers

[ogii55]

Guarachi - Zidansek 5.00 Bet 365

ITF Santiago

 

Guarachi is returning after long absence. She played very strongly here smashing good opponents. Zidansek is a class up, but in home she could be capable to score a surprise win. Zidansek wasn't impressive so far. Yesterday she was loosing 0:3, 30:40, before turning around everything and scoring nice win. She is also playing a lot of matches including her participation in doubles tournament. Not sure if odds like 5.00 are to be missed.

[CzechPunter]

Unlucky with the last one, the win was there for the taking .

[ogii55]

The odds were great and a pretty close match

Stojanovic - Marincovic 3.27 Pinnale

ITF Cairo

Stojanovic's ranking is not impressive, but she beat in the semis number 1 seed player, who is Top 350. Marincovic has a very easy road to the final, except the semifinal, which was against Top 475 player in a pretty close match. Stojanovic form is impressive. She will play in the doubles final. Her single semifinal was very long, almost 3 hours, but then she played like a new in doubles semi and won pretty easy. The fitness will be the greatest concern for Stojanovic, but with this odds I think it is worth to try her.

[ogii55]

Awful end of the week

[CzechPunter]

Yep, tennis can be quite heartbreaking sometimes.

[ogii55]

Prybilova - Szupper 6.00 Bet365

Both met last week. The outcome of the match was for the favorite Szupper, she won 6:3, 6:4, but the stats show that Prybilova had more BP and missed a lot of chances. To have such odds and to lose a pretty close match it's a worth a try. Prybilova has better % on hard, while Szupper - the opposite, she is a typical clay court player.

[CzechPunter]

A great read!

[ogii55]

ITF Israel

Kakuya - Burguignon 4.33 Bet365

Kakuya made a pretty strong tournament last week. She reached the quarterfinals where lost 6:4, 6:4 from one of the finalist. She prefers the clay court and she is a player, who twice this season was close to beat strong favorites and lead with a set up, but injured during the match. Burguignon is very much depended on her serve. Sometimes she tends take huge number of DF. I see this match almost even with Burguignon a slight favorite, but not with such odds.

[four-leaf]

A player to watch for next season I think will be Catherine Bellis as she already won the smaller WTA tournament at Hawaii late this past season where she beat 23 ranked Shuai Zhang in the final. Bellis opted to go pro late in 2016 and now she's on the move so better watch out for her.

[ogii55]

Marrow - Lamis 5.13 Pinnacle

ITF Cairo

Marrow was very game against Kakuya last week and was close to take a set. Now she is up against 18-year old player from Egypt with 7/12 balance this year. Marrow is 3/8 this year, but she already scored one big surprise here in Egypt against Top 800 player.

 

 

 

[ogii55]

ITF Israel

Rottmann - Paigina 6.22 Pinbet

Rottmann is former Top 310 player, who had awful last two years, because of injuries. She is on a comeback trail and already scored some nice wins with high odds this season. Rottmann was very solid in her first match here, despite the fact that her opponent retired because of injury. Paigina is another of young Russian players, who is trying for a big break. She serves very solidly, but last week in Israel didn't play so well. She lost from a player, who is on Rottmann level and before that played a match against weaker player and lost set against it. She is big favorite, maybe around 3.5 - 4.00 odds, but 6.22 is nice value.

[ogii55]

Negreanu - Paigina 4.12 Pinnacle

Paigina didn't impress today against Rottmann. Now she will face far more stronger opponent. SHe beat Negreanu earlier this season coming back from a set down. Paigina is not in the same form as she was in their previous encounter, while Negreanu is capable to stun opponents with lower odds. Both are pretty close in the rankings. Sweet odds. I would put Paigina here for around 3.00, not more.

[ogii55]

IPTL league

Slammers - Aces 2.04 Pinnacle

Slammers are with Kyrgios and Moya, who are playing very strongly and will give a nice edge. Bagdatis and Melo are also strong double. I think those matches will give the edge to Slammers, who are playing in home and lost just by one game the previous encounter against Aces. The match is very important, because the winner will took the lead in the standings

[ogii55]

IPTL league

Slammers - Aces 2.15 Pinnacle

Yesterday the match was going for Slammers, but they missed so many chances to finish the job and finally lost by 1 game... Pretty annoying, but now the stakes will be higher, because Slammers needs the win to go to the final. Aces already qualified and can relax a little bit.

This is the bet of the week IMO.

 

[ogii55]

Evtimova - Eikeri 2.43 Pinnacle

ITF Turkey

Evtimova beat Eikeri in a close match last week. The Bulgarian is improving this week and she had a chance to rest more. Eikeri played two matches in each of the last two days, a single and a double, while Evtimova had a total of two matches from the start of the tournament.

[louis12]

Better to wait 2017  Now it is time for holidays

[ogii55]

Kyrgios/Melo vs Dodig/Lopez 2.39 Pinnacle

 

Kyrgios/Melo played very well yesterday. Both serving solidly. There isn't much time until the start of the game, but their team secured the win and will play for pleasure. Dodig is doing not so well and Lopez has some injury problems.

[ogii55]

Good end of Premiere tennis league season. I need to put more focus on it next season, because there are so many sweet odds there. Just need to follow up the tournament.

ITF Dubai will be interesting tournament, here is an interesting proposition from Day 1

Pervushina - Burger 2.10 Bet365.com

Pervushina is just 16 and she is one of the top junior players. She reached two semifinals at Junior Grand slams this year and already won several tournaments among seniors. Her best achievement is 25k on clay. On the first look she played more on clay, but in fact she had very solid serve and powerful shots. Pervushina won many tournaments among juniors on hard and showed good tennis on grass.

On the other hand Burger is a classic clay court player. Many of her matches on hard this season ended in a disaster. Pervushina is in Dubai from several weeks, were she is in training camp. This is a great chance for her to start strong. If he wins here, her second opponent will be also not so strong.

 

 

 

 

[four-leaf]

Great betting ogii55, now it has to feel pretty good