FleetFanatic
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Posts posted by FleetFanatic
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Cross referencing the ratings with what I like the look off, plus the fact I am reducing the number of bets as bet365 are tightwads.
Corach Rambler
Fury Road
Longhouse Poet
Minella Trump
Our Power
Velvet Elvis
There's others that have a chance but we can't cover them all.
If something else near the top of the ratings wins then 'meh'.
If something else in the ratings wins then it was rubbish to start with lol- maxironchin, MCLARKE, yossa6133 and 1 other
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3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
I've been waiting with anticipation, perhaps they've dropped it like the 4/1 TV offer
Offering just 6 places with multiple horses shorter than 10s & they scrap the offer for this year?
I'll bet elsewhere then.
- maxironchin and MCLARKE
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No sign of a half stakes back with bet365 this year (yet) - it launched on the thursday last year...
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Updated mine - there's some big prices near the top of this list, so not sure how accurate it's going to be...
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Ah my favourite race of the year, haven't had a single bet since last year. My trends scoring was a bit of a failure last year, so it's had a revamp.
11 of the biggest trends, where more than half the winners met the trend. If a runner meets the trend, the get the score for how many past winners also met the trend,
if a selection doesn't meet the trend, it gets the score for how many past winners also didn't.
The maximum score was 278 - I can see why the favourite is such! This is the current first 40:
EDIT - UPDATED 11/04/23
There's some big prices near the top of this list, so not sure how accurate it's going to be
TOTAL
MAXIMUM POSSIBLE
278
Corach Rambler (IRE) 9 10-5 Lucinda Russell
278
Back On The Lash 9 9-13 Martin Keighley
266
Francky du Berlais (FR) 10 10-0 Peter Bowen
266
Born By The Sea (IRE) 9 9-10 John Gilligan IRE
264
Cloudy Glen (IRE) 10 10-4 Venetia Williams
264
Escaria Ten (FR) 9 10-10 Gordon Elliott IRE
256
Eva's Oskar (IRE) 9 10-1 S Tim Vaughan
254
Velvet Elvis (IRE) 7 10-6 Thomas Gibney IRE
254
Longhouse Poet (IRE) 9 11-0 Martin Brassil IRE
251
Any Second Now (IRE) 11 11-12 Ted Walsh IRE
249
Fury Road (IRE) 9 11-6 Gordon Elliott IRE
244
Our Power (IRE) 8 10-0 Sam Thomas
244
The Big Breakaway (IRE) 8 10-10 Joe Tizzard
244
Diol Ker (FR) 9 10-8 Noel Meade IRE
242
Minella Trump (IRE) 9 10-6 Donald McCain
241
Noble Yeats (IRE) 8 11-11 Emmet Mullins IRE
241
Hill Sixteen 10 10-2 Sandy Thomson
236
Le Milos 8 10-11 Dan Skelton
236
Lifetime Ambition (IRE) 8 11-3 Jessica Harrington IRE
234
Roi Mage (FR) 11 10-8 Patrick Griffin IRE
234
Carefully Selected (IRE) 11 11-1 Willie Mullins IRE
232
Dunboyne (IRE) 8 10-0 Gordon Elliott IRE
231
Ain't That A Shame (IRE) 9 10-5 Henry de Bromhead IRE
231
Gabbys Cross (IRE) 8 10-2 Henry de Bromhead IRE
231
Mr Incredible (IRE) 7 10-4 Willie Mullins IRE
231
Sam Brown 11 11-4 Anthony Honeyball
230
Gaillard du Mesnil (FR) 7 11-0 Willie Mullins IRE
229
Galvin (IRE) 9 11-11 Gordon Elliott IRE
228
Mister Coffey (FR) 8 10-4 Nicky Henderson
226
A Wave of The Sea (IRE) 7 10-6 Joseph O'Brien IRE
224
Delta Work (FR) 10 11-4 Gordon Elliott IRE
223
Fortescue 9 9-13 Henry Daly
222
Enjoy d'Allen (FR) 9 10-5 Ciaran Murphy IRE
219
Coko Beach (FR) 8 11-0 Gordon Elliott IRE
212
Vanillier (FR) 8 10-6 Gavin Cromwell IRE
209
Darasso (FR) 10 10-13 Joseph O'Brien IRE
203
Recite A Prayer (IRE) 8 10-1 Willie Mullins IRE
203
The Big Dog (IRE) 10 11-5 Peter Fahey IRE
200
Cape Gentleman (IRE) 7 10-8 John Hanlon IRE
187
Capodanno (FR) 7 11-5 Willie Mullins IRE
185
- maxironchin, MCLARKE, yossa6133 and 2 others
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2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
Santini ew ....30pts profit overall I'll take that
If you used bet365 would that not be 40pts profit?
5 x 10 ew = 100
minus 50 refund leaves 50
1/5 odds = 8/1 * 10 plus the place stake = 90
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Still can’t believe that the worst rated in my ratings won the thing.
Anyway my 10 x £5 each way minus refund means I spent £50.
Santini was the only place for £45 back.
Could have been so much better but like last year, losses were small.
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Well that was rubbish again. Score of 52 on my ratings!
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God luck all on Day 3 a.k.a. 'pick the big price nohopers day'
1.45 Beauport (res Serious Charges)2.25 Colonel Mustard (res Good Risk At All)
3.00 Mick Pastor (res Third Time Lucki)
3.35 Koshari (res Champ)
4.15 Wishing and Hoping (res Scene Not Herd)
5.15 Death Duty (res Dingo Dollar)
6.20 Leave of Absence (res Blow Your Wad)
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9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
The top 4 in the betting. I can't really see the point of it.
To be fair, I bagged Potters Corner in a fun bet in 2020. Totally forgot about this for 2022 though.
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3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
Had a good look at final Dec's and happy to just add thec4th and 5th horses goid boy and Burrows 10pt wins both .....so will have the top 5 running for me in 40 horse race ?
Only the top 5? No ambition. I'm aiming for the top 10!
Seriously though, best these stats have done is find 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th & 6th in the same National. Not so good last year with just a couple of places mind.
We have 3 the same so I hope it's one of those for us both.
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13 Santini (GB) 10-11-02 Polly Gundry
90
15 Escaria Ten (FR) 8-11-01 Gordon Elliott IRE
99
16 Good Boy Bobby (IRE) 9-10-13 Nigel Twiston-Davies
90
25 Dingo Dollar (IRE) 10-10-11 Sandy Thomson
99
30 Cloth Cap (IRE) 10-10-10 Jonjo O'Neill
90
31 Snow Leopardess (GB) 10-10-09 Charlie Longsdon
92
37 Death Duty (IRE) 11-10-06 Gordon Elliott IRE
99
39 Eclair Surf (FR) 8-10-05 Emma Lavelle
99
To complete my 10, I've gone for 2 in the 80s & taken Mighty Thunder & Schoolboy Hours.
Thanks to half the stakes bck already, that's my quarter of the field the same as every year - get the winner & it;s a profit no matter what. Enough places & it's a profit or small loss on a fun afternoon. -
And what is the final edit - 3 reserves & rated, we lose Lord du Mesnil from our qualifiers.
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1.45 Politesse (res: Highway One O Two)
2.20 Aucunrisque (res: First Street)
2.55 Ahoy Senior (res: L'Homme Presse)
3.30 Funambule Sivola (res: Saint Calvados)
4.05 Annamix (res: Foxy Jacks)
4.40 Bowtogreatness (res: Duke of Bronte)
5.15 Mandarin Monarch (res: Richmond Lake's)
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General thoughts - what do people think of Bet365 each-way extra?
I mean, lower odds, but as many as 10 places... general consensus = yes/no? -
Updated below...
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12 minutes ago, calva decoy said:
Bet365 have their usual 50% off offer but some proper tight prices on the 3 I've picked .
ANY SECOND NOW 8/1 ( 6 )
ESCARIA TEN 10/1 ( 6 )
ENJOY D'ALLEN 10/1 ( 6 )
Plus CLOTH CAP 33/1 ( 6 ) around 2 weeks ago .
Was just about to say the offer has started!
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1.45 MILLERS BANK (RES GIN ON LIME)
2.20 PETIT TONNERRE (RES BRAZIL)
2.55 ROYAL PAGAILLE (RES ELDORADO ALLEN)
3.30 BREWINUPASTORM (RES ZANAHIYR)
4.05 PORLOCK BAY (RES LATENIGHTPASS)
4.40 DANCING ON MY OWN (RES SKY PIRATE)
5.15 NAUGHTINESSE (RES KATEIRA)
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Post removed due to update lower...
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I will update before Saturday. With Chris’s Dream withdrawn, obviously the weights changed slightly again too.
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5 hours ago, Trotter said:
3.35 Donc - The Lincoln
Let's be honest I couldn't be arsed looking through 22 runners so I've used one of the Trends sites to narrow the field down by age, weight, rating, previous win over a mile and surprisingly I'm only left with 3 .....
WIN - Mujtaba 9/2 bet365
EW - Brunch 16/1 bet365
EW - Johan 33/1 bet365And the biggest of the three wins. Trends matter.
- MCLARKE and Wildgarden
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6 hours ago, fd1972uk said:
Think one of the favs will win it, dont see it going to a horse any bigger than possibly 20s, maybe 25s at best dependant on how reasonable the bookies odds are.
Whilst you might be proved to be correct - why? Markets are manipulated by money. Reasoning cannot be made purely just based on price.
AINTREE TIPSTERS COMPETITION - Day 3 selections
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
1.45 Notlongtilmay
2.25 Moon Hunter
3.00 You Wear It Well
3.35 Dashel Drasher
4.15 Kinondo Kwetu
5.15 Minella Trump
6.20 Aslukgoes