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FleetFanatic

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    Grand National 9th April 2022

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by FleetFanatic
    Update.

    Hope I'm not too early to start a thread for this. Now Cheltenham has been & gone, unless anything is running tomorrow, the list below is my usual trends-based, 99-rating scores.
    Didn't get the winner last year, after previously doing well before that, so hopefully get back on track.
    Will update this first post as runners get withdrawn - for now it is the current first 40 on the racecard. Interested in anything scoring 90 or over.
    Currently 7 meet that, normally I just wait until the big day & hope bet365 do their usual half stakes back & do 10 for the price of 5, as it were.

    Edit 1: 19/03 - in my rush to post, I neglected to factor in those who have had a non-chase run for fitness. As a result, 2 more selections join the 90+ score (currently 9 in total). Only changes from this point onwards will be for withdrawals.

    Edit 2: 22/03 - to reflect the revised weights - this means some runners lost points due to no longer meeting the weights trend. Interesting to see Cloth Cap - last year's favourite - meeting the trends still - the only thing dampening down that one's score s that's the best / least worse performance it has had this year wasn't in the last 3 runs.

    Edit 3: 06/04 - reflecting Chris's Dream withdrawal whilst top weight - means we lost Fiddlerontheroof as a 90+ quailifier due to a change is weight carried. Have listed 42 as it has already been stated that Death Duty will replace Battleoverdoyen & Court Maid is also ruled out.

    Edit 4: 07/04 - to reflect the final 48 hour declarations - I also got 3 or 4 ratings near the bottom of the card incorrect (forgot to factor their weight increasign met they now met a trend) - this has been fixed & all ratings shown I am happy with.

    Edit 5: 07/04 - the columns copied & pasted out of line - corrected.

    Edit 6: 08/04 - 3 last withdrawals - reserves used now rated

    (8 that rate 90+)
     

    1 Minella Times (IRE) 9-11-10 Henry de Bromhead IRE

    74

    2 Delta Work (FR) 9-11-09 Gordon Elliott IRE

    81

    3 Schoolboy Hours 9-10-05

    81

    4 Any Second Now (IRE) 10-11-08 Ted Walsh IRE

    83

    5 Run Wild Fred (IRE) 8-11-07 Gordon Elliott IRE

    72

    6 Lostintranslation (IRE) 10-11-06 Colin Tizzard

    81

    7 Brahma Bull (IRE) 11-11-06 Willie Mullins IRE

    65

    8 Burrows Saint (FR) 9-11-05 Willie Mullins IRE

    81

    9 Mount Ida (IRE) 8-11-05 Gordon Elliott IRE

    81

    10 Longhouse Poet (IRE) 8-11-04 Martin Brassil

    72

    11 Fiddlerontheroof (IRE) 8-11-04 Colin Tizzard

    81

    12 Two For Gold (IRE) 9-11-03 Kim Bailey

    72

    13 Santini (GB) 10-11-02 Polly Gundry

    90

    14 Samcro (IRE) 10-11-01 Gordon Elliott IRE

    72

    15 Escaria Ten (FR) 8-11-01 Gordon Elliott IRE

    99

    16 Good Boy Bobby (IRE) 9-10-13 Nigel Twiston-Davies

    90

    17 Roman de Senam 10-10-05

    63

    18 Coko Beach (FR) 7-10-13 Gordon Elliott IRE

    70

    19 De Rasher Counter (GB) 10-10-12 Emma Lavelle

    83

    20 Kildisart (IRE) 10-10-11 Ben Pauling

    81

    21 Discorama (FR) 9-10-11 Paul Nolan IRE

    83

    22 Top Ville Ben (IRE) 10-10-11 Philip Kirby

    65

    23 Enjoy d'Allen (FR) 8-10-11 Ciaran Murphy IRE

    83

    24 Anibale Fly (FR) 12-10-11 Tony Martin IRE

    88

    25 Dingo Dollar (IRE) 10-10-11 Sandy Thomson

    99

    26 Freewheelin Dylan (IRE) 10-10-10 Dermot McLoughlin IRE

    67

    27 Class Conti (FR) 10-10-10 Willie Mullins IRE

    65

    28 Noble Yeats (IRE) 7-10-10 Emmet Mullins IRE

    52

    29 Mighty Thunder (GB) 9-10-10 Lucinda Russell

    83

    30 Cloth Cap (IRE) 10-10-10 Jonjo O'Neill

    90

    31 Snow Leopardess (GB) 10-10-09 Charlie Longsdon

    92

    32 Agusta Gold (IRE) 9-10-09 Willie Mullins IRE

    81

    33 Commodore 10-10-5

    83

    34 Deise Aba (IRE) 9-10-08 Philip Hobbs

    74

    35 Blaklion (GB) 13-10-08 Dan Skelton

    79

    36 Poker Party (FR) 10-10-08 Henry de Bromhead

    65

    37 Death Duty (IRE) 11-10-06 Gordon Elliott IRE

    99

    38 Domaine de L'Isle (FR) 9-10-06 Sean Curran

    81

    39 Eclair Surf (FR) 8-10-05 Emma Lavelle

    99

    40 Fortescue (GB) 8-10-05 Henry Daly

    56


     

    Grand National 10th April 2021

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    Fantastic offer. Having said that the CEO paid herself £421m last year so I think they can afford it.

    Remember the bet has to be put on by 11.59 on Saturday (I didn't realise this last time, I put the bet on at 5 past 12 so didn't get my £125 back.

    Just done mine - in my excitement, I have managed to cover Mister Malarkey twice - I hope he's the winner now!

    Grand National 10th April 2021

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by FleetFanatic

    12 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

    Betfred are doing 8 places for ew bets placed after 12 noon thurs to friday night on the national 

    I'm waiting to see what bet365 offer first...

    they have regularly done either bet 1, get stakes back as a free bet (to then use on another in shortlist, so 2 for the price of 1);
    their other one was bet 1, get the 50% of stake refunded as cash - so every 2 bets gave me the money to cover another.

    I'd rather bet 10 for the price of 5 or 6 than play for 6th/7th/8th but guess it's down to personal preference.

    Grand National 10th April 2021

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by FleetFanatic

    On 3/29/2021 at 11:08 PM, FleetFanatic said:

    The ratings above insist a horse must have won at a distance further than 3m,
    as well as placed or better in something 3m 2 or greater.
    Mister Malarkey & Canelo failed both of those... (bigger than 3m - not 3m or bigger.)

    Here's an interesting thing - If I slacked the above criteria just the one little notch - to be make it 'won at 3m or more' instead of 'won a distance greater than 3m)
    Then only 2 horses would actually improve their rating enough to score 90+ = Mister Malarkey & Canelo.

    With only 7 qualifiers at the moment (and I like to have 10 if possible, especially if any offer mean I'm only betting the stakes of 5), I think I'll shortlist those two.

    Grand National 10th April 2021

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    You have similar ideas. Without the exact scoring methods being told:

    The ratings above insist a horse must have won at a distance further than 3m,
    as well as placed or better in something 3m 2 or greater.
    Mister Malarkey & Canelo failed both of those... (bigger than 3m - not 3m or bigger.)

    Looking for highest RPR in last 12 months in the last 3 runs. Also a bonus if their best in last 12 months is 5lbs greater than their official rating.

    Funny how similar our thoughts are mind;
    although the number of days run is different, I have factors for falls & unseated riders, best prize money race placed in or won, number of chase wins...

    On most criteria, a runner can fail 1 and still score 90.
    Apart from the weight. It's how we missed out on Tiger Roll in 2019 but he was an exception.

    I love the National more than Cheltenham.

    Grand National 10th April 2021

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by FleetFanatic
    Updating declarations due to non-runners

    Well, I pass by here from time to time. Those that know me from previous years will know I back anything that rates 90+ in my little trends calculation. Now the 'peak previous run period' has been & gone, I have rated the first 40 in the declarations for now - will up date if any more withdraw etc. Currently dealing with the death of a brother at the age of 45, so will do my best...)2017: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th (had shortlist of 10)
    2018: 1st, 4th, 5th (had shortlist of 6)
    2019: 3rd, 4th, 5th (had shortlist of 10)
    2021: (currently shortlist of 9 - 7 plus an additional 2)

    1 Bristol de Mai (FR) 10 11 10 167 Mr Simon Munir & Mr Isaac Souede Nigel Twiston-Davies

    74

     

    2 The Storyteller (IRE) 10 11 8 165 Mrs Pat Sloan Gordon Elliott IRE

    WITHDRAWN

     

    3 Chris's Dream (IRE) 9 11 7 164 Robcour Henry de Bromhead IRE

    54

     

    4 Yala Enki (FR) 11 11 3 160 Hills of Ledbury Ltd Paul Nicholls

    76

     

    5 Ballyoptic (IRE) 11 11 1 158 Mills & Mason Partnership Nigel Twiston-Davies

    83

     

    6 Definitly Red (IRE) 12 11 1 158 Phil & Julie Martin Brian Ellison

    63

     

    7 Lake View Lad (IRE) 11 11 0 157 Mr Trevor Hemmings N. W. Alexander

    92

     

    8 Burrows Saint (FR) 8 10 13 156 Mrs S. Ricci W. P. Mullins IRE

    90

     

    9 Magic of Light (IRE) 10 10 13 156 Ann & Alan Potts Limited Mrs J. Harrington IRE

    74

     

    10 Acapella Bourgeois (FR) 11 10 12 155 Slaneyville Syndicate W. P. Mullins IRE

    83

     

    11 Talkischeap (IRE) 9 10 12 155 Mr Charles Dingwall Alan King

    90

     

    12 Tout Est Permis (FR) 8 10 12 155 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade

    65

     

    13 Anibale Fly (FR) 11 10 12 155 Mr John P. McManus A. J. Martin IRE

    90

     

    14 Mister Malarky (GB) 8 10 12 155 Wendy & Malcolm Hezel Colin Tizzard

    81

     

    15 Kimberlite Candy (IRE) 9 10 10 153 Mr John P. McManus Tom Lacey

    83

     

    16 Any Second Now (IRE) 9 10 9 152 Mr John P. McManus T. M. Walsh IRE

    92

     

    17 Balko des Flos (FR) 10 10 9 152 Gigginstown House Stud Henry de Bromhead IRE

    56

     

    18 Alpha des Obeaux (FR) 11 10 9 152 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE

    56

     

    19 Ok Corral (IRE) 11 10 8 151 Mr John P. McManus Nicky Henderson

    72

     

    20 Takingrisks (IRE) 12 10 7 150 Mr Frank Bird Nicky Richards

    65

     

    21 Shattered Love (IRE) 10 10 7 150 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE

    63

     

    22 Jett (IRE) 10 10 7 150 Mr Robert Waley-Cohen Mrs J. Harrington IRE

    49

     

    23 Lord du Mesnil (FR) 8 10 6 149 Mr Paul Porter & Mike & Mandy Smith Richard Hobson

    92

     

    24 Potters Corner (IRE) 11 10 6 149 All Stars Sports Racing & J Davies Christian Williams

    76

     

    25 Class Conti (FR) 9 10 6 149 Mr Simon Munir/Mr Isaac Souede W. P. Mullins IRE

    74

     

    26 Milan Native (IRE) 8 10 6 149 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE

    81

     

    27 Discorama (FR) 8 10 6 149 Thomas Friel/Andrew Gemmell Paul Nolan IRE

    83

     

    28 Vieux Lion Rouge (FR) 12 10 5 148 Prof Caroline Tisdall & Mr John Gent David Pipe

    72

     

    29 Cloth Cap (IRE) 9 10 5 148 Mr Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill

    90

     

    30 Cabaret Queen (GB) 9 10 5 148 Syndicates.Racing W. P. Mullins IRE

    56

     

    31 Minellacelebration (IRE) 11 10 5 148 Mr Nick Elliott Katy Price00

    58

     

    32 Canelo (IRE) 8 10 4 147 Mr John P. McManus Alan King

    81

     

    33 The Long Mile (GB) 7 10 4 147 Mr John P. McManus J.P.Dempsey IRE

    52

     

    34 Give Me A Copper (IRE) 11 10 4 147 Done, Ferguson, Mason, Nicholls & Wood Paul Nicholls

    76

     

    35 Farclas (FR) 7 10 3 146 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE

    70

     

    36 Minella Times (IRE) 8 10 3 146 Mr John P. McManus Henry de Bromhead IRE

    74

     

    37 Sub Lieutenant (IRE) 12 10 3 146 Ms G. Howell Georgie Howell

    79

     

    38 Hogan's Height (IRE) 10 10 3 146 Foxtrot Racing: Hogan's Height Jamie Snowden

    81

     

    39 Double Shuffle (IRE) 11 10 2 145 Crossed Fingers Partnership Tom George

    63

     

    40 Ami Desbois (FR) 11 10 2 145 The Reserved Judgment Partnership Graeme McPherson

    54

     


    Blacklion 74
    Some Neck 70
    Secret Reprieve 63

    So my current crop against the field are:
     

    8 Lake View Lad (IRE)

    33/1

    92

    9 Burrows Saint (FR)

    14/1

    90

    12 Talkischeap (IRE)

    66/1

    90

    14 Anibale Fly (FR)

    33/1

    90

    19 Any Second Now (IRE)

    10/1

    92

    28 Lord du Mesnil (FR)

    33/1

    92

    34 Cloth Cap (IRE)

    4/1

    90


    Also shortlisted: Mister Malarkey, Canelo

    Not worried about ante-post - on the day there's normally some sort of back 1, back another free type offer, so here's hoping...

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