jonjo

Lots of Stable Switchers today that may be of interest in the win and extended place markets:
3.00 Sligo Montys Way 9/1
4.20 Newbury Lord Dudley 5/1
4.43 Newcastle Thermoscope 9/1............................................only winner but won nicely
5.00 Dundalk Chicago Lightening 7/2
5.20 Sligo Western Flyer 14/1
7.45 Newcastle Dresden Green 8/1 Hiya Hiya 18/1
 
Good luck.

4.30 Cheltenham On Springs 14/1 and hopefully around 7/4 in the 5 tbp market at some stage. Would you trust a 17 yo Amateur with just 15 rides in a 20 runner field at Cheltenham? That's why its called gambling I suppose. On Springs has gone up a hefty 8lb for his win in a 4 runner Class 4 at Newton Abbott but still looks to be on the up, the second came out to win a Class 3 next time and the fourth has come out and won too giving the form a solid feel. This is totally different to anything On Springs has done in the past but the price is right. The Jockey is Beau Morgan and his record in chases to date is 4 winners from just 7 rides.........pulled up
5.45 Newcastle Azure Angel was just getting the hang of things late on in her debut race, the second has come out and won since, taken a skinny 2.04 on betfair............Won 
 
5.50 Cheltenham Twin Jets, doesn't have the NHF form of the favourite but has put in two mighty shows so far in NHF races and if he can transfer that to hurdles has to have a chance here, backed at 3.7 on betfair.......lost
 
Good luck today everyone.

4.30 Cheltenham On Springs 14/1 and hopefully around 7/4 in the 5 tbp market at some stage. Would you trust a 17 yo Amateur with just 15 rides in a 20 runner field at Cheltenham? That's why its called gambling I suppose. On Springs has gone up a hefty 8lb for his win in a 4 runner Class 4 at Newton Abbott but still looks to be on the up, the second came out to win a Class 3 next time and the fourth has come out and won too giving the form a solid feel. This is totally different to anything On Springs has done in the past but the price is right. The Jockey is Beau Morgan and his record in chases to date is 4 winners from just 7 rides.........pulled up
5.45 Newcastle Azure Angel was just getting the hang of things late on in her debut race, the second has come out and won since, taken a skinny 2.04 on betfair............Won 
 
5.50 Cheltenham Twin Jets, doesn't have the NHF form of the favourite but has put in two mighty shows so far in NHF races and if he can transfer that to hurdles has to have a chance here, backed at 3.7 on betfair.......lost
 
Good luck today everyone.

Lots of Stable Switchers today that may be of interest in the win and extended place markets:
3.00 Sligo Montys Way 9/1
4.20 Newbury Lord Dudley 5/1
4.43 Newcastle Thermoscope 9/1............................................only winner but won nicely
5.00 Dundalk Chicago Lightening 7/2
5.20 Sligo Western Flyer 14/1
7.45 Newcastle Dresden Green 8/1 Hiya Hiya 18/1
 
Good luck.

4.30 Cheltenham On Springs 14/1 and hopefully around 7/4 in the 5 tbp market at some stage. Would you trust a 17 yo Amateur with just 15 rides in a 20 runner field at Cheltenham? That's why its called gambling I suppose. On Springs has gone up a hefty 8lb for his win in a 4 runner Class 4 at Newton Abbott but still looks to be on the up, the second came out to win a Class 3 next time and the fourth has come out and won too giving the form a solid feel. This is totally different to anything On Springs has done in the past but the price is right. The Jockey is Beau Morgan and his record in chases to date is 4 winners from just 7 rides.........pulled up
5.45 Newcastle Azure Angel was just getting the hang of things late on in her debut race, the second has come out and won since, taken a skinny 2.04 on betfair............Won 
 
5.50 Cheltenham Twin Jets, doesn't have the NHF form of the favourite but has put in two mighty shows so far in NHF races and if he can transfer that to hurdles has to have a chance here, backed at 3.7 on betfair.......lost
 
Good luck today everyone.

Chelt 355
Onagatheringstorm 9.0 4/1 
Seddon   8.8  9/1 
Aurora thunder  8.5 
Hooper   8.4 
Tricky race as there's not a lot separating the top 4....but top rateds Yard is in form and seddon looks ew value with 5 places 
5pt win top rated ....seddon 5pt ew 5 places 

4.30 Cheltenham - THE NEWEST ONE 20/1 bet365 ( eway 5 places ) bit high in the weights .
5th at 12/1 with b.o.g slight return .

Cheltenham 1.35 
Nayati 9.7 18/1  3rd
Elham Valley 9.63 13/2
Calicio 9.45 10/3 2nd 
Swaffham Bulbeck 9.45 20/1 5th 
Lively Citizen 9.23 13/2 
16 go to post . Another tough race but I’ll play the top two 3 points win each . 

Cheltenham. 
Double. 
3.20. Pull Again Green.         9/4... unpl 
5.05. Hullnback.        15/8
singles & double 
Good luck all. 

Course Time Selection Odds / Bet Type Result Newbury 13:25 Rajasthan 2.22 / win             Doncaster 16:38 First Officer 3.4 / win  

Nigwa in the 4.10 Newmarket is worth a punt in the place markets nearer the off. Currently 14.5 in the win market. Won her maiden last time out, the 2nd went on to win a Class 3 (Todays race is higher but thats why the price is good) The third came out and won a Novie. Hopefully Nigwa has place chances here in the 4tbp market...........just got done by a nose for 4th place?
Lamplighter is worth chancing at the odds in the 8.00 Kempton, obviously a better horse on turf but has won twice at Kempton standard/slow, is down in Class tonight having finished a fast finishing 2nd in a Class 2 at Goodwood not getting a clear run. Trading at 14 at the moment on betfair, its the 4 place market I'm interested in, no liquidity at the moment so will have to wait closer to the off...........6th
Mount Athos in the 7.30 at Kempton gets in off a fair mark for his handicap debut. Winning last time out easily giving 8lb to a 75 rated horse and gets in here of 84, could be lenient. Missed the early prices but 4.0 still looks fair.............Won easily ☺️
 
A few running today as Stable Switchers, too many to post right now.
 
Good luck today everyone.

Stable Switchers that might be worth an interest in the win and place markets on betfair:
1.12 Fontwell Vengeance 8/1 Montgomery 4/1...........Nice start, Montgomery winning at 9.97 with Vengeance placed second at 2.03 in the 3tbp market or 3.27 in the 3tbp market.. ☺️
2.05 Worcester Yggdrasil 7/1.....................placed at bfsp 2.08☺️
4.20 Worcester 17/2 Golden Cosmos...............unplaced ?
5.10 Fontwell Sadie Hill 15/1.....☺️ second, place price 3.47
8.30 Kempton View From The Stars 13/2...........☺️ third, place price 3.2

Stable Switchers that might be worth an interest in the win and place markets on betfair:
1.12 Fontwell Vengeance 8/1 Montgomery 4/1...........Nice start, Montgomery winning at 9.97 with Vengeance placed second at 2.03 in the 3tbp market or 3.27 in the 3tbp market.. ☺️
2.05 Worcester Yggdrasil 7/1.....................placed at bfsp 2.08☺️
4.20 Worcester 17/2 Golden Cosmos...............unplaced ?
5.10 Fontwell Sadie Hill 15/1.....☺️ second, place price 3.47
8.30 Kempton View From The Stars 13/2...........☺️ third, place price 3.2

Nigwa in the 4.10 Newmarket is worth a punt in the place markets nearer the off. Currently 14.5 in the win market. Won her maiden last time out, the 2nd went on to win a Class 3 (Todays race is higher but thats why the price is good) The third came out and won a Novie. Hopefully Nigwa has place chances here in the 4tbp market...........just got done by a nose for 4th place?
Lamplighter is worth chancing at the odds in the 8.00 Kempton, obviously a better horse on turf but has won twice at Kempton standard/slow, is down in Class tonight having finished a fast finishing 2nd in a Class 2 at Goodwood not getting a clear run. Trading at 14 at the moment on betfair, its the 4 place market I'm interested in, no liquidity at the moment so will have to wait closer to the off...........6th
Mount Athos in the 7.30 at Kempton gets in off a fair mark for his handicap debut. Winning last time out easily giving 8lb to a 75 rated horse and gets in here of 84, could be lenient. Missed the early prices but 4.0 still looks fair.............Won easily ☺️
 
A few running today as Stable Switchers, too many to post right now.
 
Good luck today everyone.

Newmarket. 
Single. 
5.20. Creatively.        9/1
Double. 
1.20. Mexicali Rose.         5/1...  3rd 
3.35. Baltic Voyage.                  10/3... unpl 
singles & double 
Good luck all. 
 

Cairn Gorm     8 00 Kem/       1/10 th of a pt win    8/1
Indianapolis    4 20 Woc/       1/20 th of a pt win    28/1       -   N/R 
 
 
 
 
P/L    + 160.80  pts 

410 newm 
Don't tell Claire  8.0 10/1 
Queenlet    7.8  4/1 
Ashky      7.5
Light of peace   7.2 
Poet lady  7.0
Tricky race  ....light of peace is well fancied but hard to assess ...a,possible improver but no guarantees so far too short ... ....I'll try 5pt wins top 2 and take him on 
 
 
 

It is the Geelong Cup tomorrow morning and it features Rodrigo Diaz who probably needs to win to get into the Melbourne Cup. There are plenty of ex-European horses in the field including Surefire and 2020 Derby winner Serpentine. Earlier on the card in R5 at 4.10am Beneficio is back out and as I always do I have had a good look through the field.    Fine Dine - Was in good form in better races than this last prep, but so far has yet to run well in two starts in September. Does drop in grade with connections deciding to let him carry a big weight in a lesser contest. If he does find his best form than he has a chance.   Aerovictory - Does enjoy this track having won here 4 times and placed 6 times in 19 starts. That includes a win here last month over 1125m and he won this race last year where he was drawn 13 of 13 and still managed to get across to lead. I expect him to either make the running or sit in behind Beneficio and no reason why he won't run well at his favourite track.   Oamanikka - Didn't run badly at all on his debut for a new stable at Mornington last time as he didn't get much luck in running at all. Drawn better here and should be able to settle close to the speed. One concern is that he might want a longer trip, but otherwise he has claims.   Cosmic Rhapsody - Pick of his form from this year are his 2nd's at Flemington in January and at Bendigo in July. Wasn't so good on his next start the same month and this is a competitive enough race for the 1st start of the prep.   Hydro Star - Drawn wide although that won't bother him given he tends to come from well back as he did at Mornington last month when he flew home to finish 3rd over 1000m in a BM70. Won a BM70 at Pakenham in August again over 1000m, but although he has only ever won over that trip he was a good 2nd at Sale in May over 1110m so I wouldn't worry about the trip. What he will need though is plenty of luck in running, if he gets it though then he can go close.   Abaddon - Won his maiden over this trip and also won a Class 1 at Moonee Valley over 955m. It was that course and distance which he ran over last time and finished 4th despite not being able to get a run in the straight. Another horse who wouldn't be out of this.   Grinzinger Prince - Was found to have a throat issue after his Flemington 8th in March and has had an op since to sort it out. There should be more to come from him as he has looked useful so far, but he seems very short in the market in what is a wide open contest, especially as he will be coming from the back in the home straight.   Joseylin - Won at Flemington and Moonee Valley in January and February so has proven herself in at the city tracks. Was disappointing on her first 2 starts of this prep, but was much better when finishing 2nd in the race Hydro Star was 3rd in at Mornington. The trip looks a big issue to me though as she does look like she needs 1000m or less.   Donna Natalina - Good 2nd at Mildura 1st up before not picking up at all at Sale. Ran OK when 6th in the same race as Beneficio at Moonee Valley last time, but this looks a bit tough for her.   Hypothetical - Only had the 3 starts to date and followed a 2nd first up at Mornington by winning at Sandown in July. A month later she won at Sale in a BM64 and did it quite nicely given she looked like she was still learning. She was set to run in the same race as Beneficio at Moonee Valley, but was scratched probably because she had a poor draw. Won a jumpout in the same week as that race so is ticking over nicely and clearly open to improvement. Looks to have an obvious chance.   Beneficio - No getting away from the fact she was very disappointing at Moonee Valley and to be honest we don't really know why. She has been in great form since so certainly nothing physical. My theory is that she was caught so wide after the start because so many wanted to lead that it made sense to drop her out, but I think she basically has one gear and whilst that is quick what she can't do is quicken. Therefore, when held up she wasn't able to progress when asked for an effort in the straight. Like I say that is only my theory, but clearly we know she is much better than she was able to show that night. She has got a great draw here in 3 and I would be surprised if she wasn't able to lead as the other possible front runners are out wide. It will then just be a case of if she can see them all off in the straight. Hopefully she can and she has as good a chance as anything else in the race.   Cantina - A promising mare who has only been out of the first 2 on 3 occasions from 7 starts. She was a very good 2nd over 1200m at Moonee Valley last time and I do think the query is the trip as I think she needs further than 1100m.    Tararua - This is the strongest race he has been in so far but has won 2 of his 4 starts to date including last time at Ballarat. Won by 3.5L that day so couldn't have done it any easier and deserves his chance in a race like this.   Twiggy Pop - Was pretty consistent from January to June and managed to win a couple of races including at this level at Pakenham in May. He followed that up with a 2nd in a BM70 at Sandown. He's had just the one start at Moe this prep, but it was a good effort to only be beaten 0.2L in 3rd especially as he didn't get a clear run in the straight. Might need luck in running again, but he does usually settle close to the speed so if he can do that it would be a big help to his cause.   Verdict - There are quite a few in with chances in what looks a wide-open race. I couldn't make anything as short a price as Grinzinger Prince is although he is clearly one of those in with a chance. I think at the prices the way to go is to take 3 at double figure odds. If Beneficio runs as she did in either of her 2 wins or the 2nd at Caulfield then she is going to have a real chance of making all and she can put the Moonee Valley run behind her. Twiggy Pop gets a run with the non-runners and his profile is pretty consistent. He was a bit unlucky not to win 1st up and should improve from that. Hydro Star will need luck in running, but he will be finishing fast and if he gets it then he will go close. He looks overpriced to me.   Beneficio e/w @ 14/1 with Betfred (4 places) Twiggy Pop e/w @ 11/1 with Betfred (4 places) Hydro Star e/w @ 16/1 with Betfred (4 places) NB some other bookies are also going 4 places, but I think that is because they still have the reserves in the betting and once they come out the max field is 14. Thus I think they will all go back down to 3 places, but Betfred have it as an enhanced place race so it should be 4 places still.

1.30 Worcester - AUTONOMOUS CLOUD 6/1 eway bet365 .
One of Fergal O'Briens 5 improvers for the season now going chasing with staying chases later in the season the forte .

Fontwell 2.17 
Small Bad Bob 9.75 15/2
Flash The Steel 9.7 5/1
Fugitives Drift 9.2 12/1
Small Bad Bob goes well fresh and is on last winning mark. Harry Cobden is booked to ride. Flash The Steel seems to be the class horse in the race if he can capture some of his old form . Big drop in grade and on a very winnable mark . The skeletons are going well and although has a few PU next to his name his last run was better. Goes very well fresh . Fugitives Drift could be dangerous if he can find form and is nicely priced. There’s some novices racing which are hard to rate but there’s not much to write home about so far with them .
 
Not much between top two so I’ll split stakes and go 3 points win top two

Great stuff, put me in profit on the day ?

Thanks Catchy, not every day you find  33/1 and 10/1 winners