Just had a good think about the Champion Hurdle and this crossed my mind, Not So Sleepy probably wont win but one thing for sure is it will make it a proper test for the others if it does it's normal trick. I can see a lot of wobbly horses coming to the last, who wins? i don't know but i have been following Nemean Lion even when trained in France so i see no reason not to take the risk, By a German dam (Ninfia) and Golden Horn the sire this one should be still standing at the ars*e end of the race as long as it jumps the bloody hurdles.
Granted Cheltenham is obviously going to take most of the focus, but Tuesday also sees the start of the Australian jumps season at Warrnambool and I am back to cover the season for the 5th time. It has been 2 very profitable years and a couple of small losses. What started as something to focus on during Covid has turned into a real passion. All being well I should be taking in the all jumps card at Pakenham next month on my visit to Australia and I can't wait to see some of these horses in the flesh.
Right onto Warrnambool and we have 3 races an Open Hurdle, a Maiden Hurdle and an Open Steeple.
Race 1
There is actually a Cheltenham link in this first race as Crosshill featured in races against Galopin Des Champs and Gentlemansgame among others when trained by Jessie Harrington. He ran a couple of promising races at Pakenham and in the Grand Annual last year and whilst he did go on to win a maiden on the flat his other jumps starts weren't great. He hasn't run over hurdles in Australia, but his last run in Ireland was a win over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival so he's very capable. He's trialed well and ran a respectable race on the flat last month.
He does have to give weight away to the very short price fav here though. Teofilo Star ran in 3 hurdles last year and after finishing 2nd at Pakenham he broke his maiden tag over course and distance in May. He impressed that day and he was even more impressive 3 weeks later at Sandown in a BM120 when winning by 15L. He went back on the flat after that and whilst he was well beaten in the Brisbane Cup he did when a BM100 at Flemington just before. He's not run in a race since, but won his last hurdles trial.
Serenade The Stars was behind Crosshill in the trial at Terang last week. He won the first maiden hurdle of the season last year and was then 2nd in his other 2 hurdle starts. He will be fit from the flat.
If Crosshill could run to his Irish form he would be over priced, but I don't think he's been quite up to that level and Teofilo Star looks a potential top notcher over hurdles this season and he ought to win as his odds suggest although 1/14 is very short. Its a race to watch.
Race 2
Only 2 of these have raced over hurdles and Buffalo Bill has had 20 goes without. That clearly makes things tricky especially as none of these have raced at that high a level on the flat. Tarn's Prince is the favourite and he trialed well against some useful horses last week at Terang. I am though going to take a chance on Elementry. Very unusual for top connections to send a horse over hurdles after just one flat run, which granted was awful. He won his 2nd hurdles trial here and beat Antequera into 2nd place. He seemed to enjoy jumping and his jockey seemed keen to try and teach him how to race. He's been very well backed which whilst annoying in one way does add to the confidence that he's going to go very well.
Elementry 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill
Race 3
There can't be many horses that have run in the Arc and then won a steeplechase, but Nelson has done that having been behind Enable in the Arc and then winning a chase at Coleraine last August. He could win this, but he is very short for me and there could be value elsewhere.
Police Camp is very experienced and was 2nd at a big price in the Grand Annual last year which was actually his last run. I suspect he will need this.
Mighty Oasis caused a huge shock when he won the Thackeray over course and distance beating the Grand Annual winner Rockstar Ronnie. He had been 2nd in this race last year and he usually runs his race.
Instigator has been a solid hurdler and is making his chasing debut here. He had one steeple trial here and it was OK. I want to see him in a race though before backing him.
Yulong Prince showed some decent form when last seen over fences in 2022. He won a couple over fences including over course and distance and was 2nd to Flying Agent, who was superb that year, in a couple of the big races. Clearly he's been injured since, but he ran in a Picnic (Aussie version of point to point but on the flat) race a couple of weeks ago and then trialed well last week at Terang.
I'm certain we will have some better punting cards in during the rest of the season, but I will have a couple of small bets on Mighty Oasis and Yulong Prince as I think they are over priced and we might just get Nelson beat.
Yulong Prince 0.5pts @ 17/2 with William Hill
Mighty Oasis 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet356
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