Tedthewolf

NR
 

The Irish Ceaserewitch
A wild one for me i just don't get why this horse is 66/1.  Ran a very decent race when 4th in this last year lower weight and a app on top takes another 5lb off not fancied in the market but have to have a play e/w  6places  BOG  FALCON EIGHT 66/1
1pt e/w = 2pts invested
 

The Irish Ceaserewitch
A wild one for me i just don't get why this horse is 66/1.  Ran a very decent race when 4th in this last year lower weight and a app on top takes another 5lb off not fancied in the market but have to have a play e/w  6places  BOG  FALCON EIGHT 66/1
1pt e/w = 2pts invested
 

intresting richard a pal of mine has a sizeable anti post bet ticket on "hms seahorse" 

Really enjoy reading your posts ...well done ...keep up the good work 👏

I’ve found my level now and the way I want to play the game. The all weather is a ready source of winners and confidence breeds confidence. It’s taken a while to settle, but finally better. Little more than ten races  today which is much better. A winner on the flat and over jumps too both in Ireland. 
Happy days physics and draw data wins the races. Mintana 28/1 winner to round off an amazing day. Now if Johnny sexton could kindly stay on the pitch and kick four goals the day would be complete financially. ( no chance, but a good win for Ireland)
laugh a minute 8/1
Won
breaking a few hearts among betfair money buyers
hit an anomaly that I’ve noticed occurs every single year at the curragh always has and always will. Few people know of  it and few ever will. When it comes up again I’ll be sure to highlight it again and again.
Tag man won effortlessly  yesterday at a tempo which suggests he’s a class horse. The horse that beat him well in a maiden hurdle ran today in a novice hurdle at Listowel. Clear form line and bookies had him at evens. That price and the winning distance bet of 5+ lengths seemed a no brainer.
High Class Hero
I couldn’t   max it as two other stablemates were present but a confident choice on both bets.
High Class Hero looks set for the top
woven placed at a big  each way price @  28/1.
A big heads up to @TheBrigadier
@richard-westwood @Tedthewolf@black rabbit @kensland @The Equaliser@Brahmin   @azzybear@Zilzalian@MCLARKE

you are doing great things 
and everyone else, brilliant stuff.
 

1(8)   Certain Lad9/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 14:40 Newbury 14:40, 23 Sep     Best Odds Guaranteed         9(2)   Fools Rush In16/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 13:15 Ayr 13:15, 23 Sep     Best Odds Guaranteed         13(1)   Bernardo O'Reilly14/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 14:25 Ayr 14:25, 23 Sep     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4       18(21)   Mr Wagyu14/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 15:35 Ayr 15:35, 23 Sep     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD  I really fancy these to run well tomorrow so its 0.3 e/w L15  = 9pts invested

1(8)   Certain Lad9/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 14:40 Newbury 14:40, 23 Sep     Best Odds Guaranteed         9(2)   Fools Rush In16/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 13:15 Ayr 13:15, 23 Sep     Best Odds Guaranteed         13(1)   Bernardo O'Reilly14/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 14:25 Ayr 14:25, 23 Sep     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4       18(21)   Mr Wagyu14/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 15:35 Ayr 15:35, 23 Sep     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD  I really fancy these to run well tomorrow so its 0.3 e/w L15  = 9pts invested

There is a mathematical edge with backing each way in extra place races. Also horses are priced on their win chances, some horses rarely win but are often placed.

Personally i would  rather back (and do)16/1 shots  than win bets on  9/4  shots  always a chance the 16/1 shot wins also very happy to back 2 or 3 horse  e/w at decent prices in the big handicaps  with extra places usually on offer. Horses for courses i guess we are all different  we see  & bet differently  a bit like one mans trash is another mans treasure.

Personally i would  rather back (and do)16/1 shots  than win bets on  9/4  shots  always a chance the 16/1 shot wins also very happy to back 2 or 3 horse  e/w at decent prices in the big handicaps  with extra places usually on offer. Horses for courses i guess we are all different  we see  & bet differently  a bit like one mans trash is another mans treasure.

Interesting debate, personally i rarely do ew bets or multiples in a race, whenever i have more than one fancy i do small stakes forecasts and tricasts and that works pretty well for me it makes me a good few quid over the year anyone looking at my position on the naps table this month (naps table cannot be won backing ew) may raise their eyebrows until you consider the places i have had 20/1 12/1 6/1 50/1 50/1 28/1 12/1 16/1 20/1 placed, Some would say i must be mad for not doing the ew but if you consider this month i have had 3 forecasts come in 1 at £215 and another at £176  then £77 for 50p stakes (50p RFC so £1) from outlay being £34. my tricasts are £0 for an outlay of £17. The 2yo races that i specialise in i will use bigger stakes up to £2.50 R/FC but i cant report much happening this year i have hardly had a bet on the 2yo's which is very rare for me but the simple truth is the races have been woefully under subscribed which to my mind does not bode well for the future of racing.

Personally i would  rather back (and do)16/1 shots  than win bets on  9/4  shots  always a chance the 16/1 shot wins also very happy to back 2 or 3 horse  e/w at decent prices in the big handicaps  with extra places usually on offer. Horses for courses i guess we are all different  we see  & bet differently  a bit like one mans trash is another mans treasure.

All my winners in Ireland total blank in Scotland and England.
kicked off by
TAG MAN
won at odds on but the winning margin paid @ evens 
Dundalk paid handsomely 
CHARLISSE won @   40s into 33/1 
Halle BOPP won @ 11/1 into 17-2
qabil placed @14/1  
There must be very few people on the planet who feel dissatisfied with winners at 40s 11/1 and your best horse hosing up by 14 lengths. But I just couldn’t get into my usual rhythm and I do know why… will do better.
Chosing ten races tomorrow and ten only so hopefully will make six good choices.

1(8)   Certain Lad9/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 14:40 Newbury 14:40, 23 Sep     Best Odds Guaranteed         9(2)   Fools Rush In16/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 13:15 Ayr 13:15, 23 Sep     Best Odds Guaranteed         13(1)   Bernardo O'Reilly14/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 14:25 Ayr 14:25, 23 Sep     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4       18(21)   Mr Wagyu14/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 15:35 Ayr 15:35, 23 Sep     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD  I really fancy these to run well tomorrow so its 0.3 e/w L15  = 9pts invested

Bronze Cup Ayr 3.25
1pt e/w  bog  6places on both ASADJUMEIRAH 16/1  GHATHANFAR 20/1 = 4pts invested
 

Bronze Cup Ayr 3.25
1pt e/w  bog  6places on both ASADJUMEIRAH 16/1  GHATHANFAR 20/1 = 4pts invested
 

Over 2 days long shot but horses I follow 🤞

1(8)   Certain Lad9/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 14:40 Newbury 14:40, 23 Sep     Best Odds Guaranteed         9(2)   Fools Rush In16/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 13:15 Ayr 13:15, 23 Sep     Best Odds Guaranteed         13(1)   Bernardo O'Reilly14/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 14:25 Ayr 14:25, 23 Sep     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4       18(21)   Mr Wagyu14/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 15:35 Ayr 15:35, 23 Sep     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD  I really fancy these to run well tomorrow so its 0.3 e/w L15  = 9pts invested

1(8)   Certain Lad9/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 14:40 Newbury 14:40, 23 Sep     Best Odds Guaranteed         9(2)   Fools Rush In16/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 13:15 Ayr 13:15, 23 Sep     Best Odds Guaranteed         13(1)   Bernardo O'Reilly14/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 14:25 Ayr 14:25, 23 Sep     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4       18(21)   Mr Wagyu14/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 15:35 Ayr 15:35, 23 Sep     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD  I really fancy these to run well tomorrow so its 0.3 e/w L15  = 9pts invested

LUCKY 15 (EACH WAY) REUSE SELECTION       6(13)   Honour Your Dreams10/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 14:25 Ayr 14:25, Today     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4 WATCH & INSIGHTS       9(7)   Fools Rush In16/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 15:00 Ayr 15:00, Today     Best Odds Guaranteed   WATCH & INSIGHTS       2(11)   Hortzadar9/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4 16:10 Ayr 16:10, Today     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3 WATCH & INSIGHTS       1(2)   Golden Apollo10/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 16:45 Ayr 16:45, Today     Best Odds Guaranteed   0.1 e/w L15 = 3pts invested

LUCKY 15 (EACH WAY) REUSE SELECTION       6(13)   Honour Your Dreams10/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 14:25 Ayr 14:25, Today     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4 WATCH & INSIGHTS       9(7)   Fools Rush In16/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 15:00 Ayr 15:00, Today     Best Odds Guaranteed   WATCH & INSIGHTS       2(11)   Hortzadar9/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4 16:10 Ayr 16:10, Today     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3 WATCH & INSIGHTS       1(2)   Golden Apollo10/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 16:45 Ayr 16:45, Today     Best Odds Guaranteed   0.1 e/w L15 = 3pts invested

LUCKY 15 (EACH WAY) REUSE SELECTION       6(13)   Honour Your Dreams10/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 14:25 Ayr 14:25, Today     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4 WATCH & INSIGHTS       9(7)   Fools Rush In16/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 15:00 Ayr 15:00, Today     Best Odds Guaranteed   WATCH & INSIGHTS       2(11)   Hortzadar9/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4 16:10 Ayr 16:10, Today     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3 WATCH & INSIGHTS       1(2)   Golden Apollo10/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 16:45 Ayr 16:45, Today     Best Odds Guaranteed   0.1 e/w L15 = 3pts invested

LUCKY 15 (EACH WAY) REUSE SELECTION       6(13)   Honour Your Dreams10/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 14:25 Ayr 14:25, Today     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4 WATCH & INSIGHTS       9(7)   Fools Rush In16/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 15:00 Ayr 15:00, Today     Best Odds Guaranteed   WATCH & INSIGHTS       2(11)   Hortzadar9/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4 16:10 Ayr 16:10, Today     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3 WATCH & INSIGHTS       1(2)   Golden Apollo10/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 16:45 Ayr 16:45, Today     Best Odds Guaranteed   0.1 e/w L15 = 3pts invested

LUCKY 15 (EACH WAY) REUSE SELECTION       6(13)   Honour Your Dreams10/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5 14:25 Ayr 14:25, Today     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4 WATCH & INSIGHTS       9(7)   Fools Rush In16/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 15:00 Ayr 15:00, Today     Best Odds Guaranteed   WATCH & INSIGHTS       2(11)   Hortzadar9/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4 16:10 Ayr 16:10, Today     Extra Place Best Odds Guaranteed PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3 WATCH & INSIGHTS       1(2)   Golden Apollo10/1 Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3 16:45 Ayr 16:45, Today     Best Odds Guaranteed   0.1 e/w L15 = 3pts invested