In Play Race Reader

IMO Newcastle is a bit of an anomaly as regards Speed Ratings as most races are run at a crawl early then sprint finish especially on the round course ,if your using all races to get your going allowance there’s going to be some difficulty ,,I know raceforms SR’s for Newcastle are always out of sync,,Cover up recently won off 83 and was rated 123 ,which is par with Group 1 ,,I use race par finishes to find out which races have been close to truly run 

I've parked setting my own standard times for the time being after going round in circles many times.
I've decided initially to use the Raceform Standard Times.
So my revised method is :-
 
1. For each race compare the actual time to the standard time.
2. Convert these into seconds per mile.
3. Calculate the average variance for each class of race. This gives the seconds per mile slower than standard time by class.
 
4. For each race amend the variance by the class adjustment.
5. For each meeting calculate the average of the adjusted variances. This is the going allowance for that meeting.
6. For each race amend the variance by the going allowance. This gives the final variance.
 
This has created some interesting and unexpected numbers. In my top ten I would have expected to see the winners of the big group 1 races at Royal Ascot etc. However this is not the case. The top rated are :-
1. + 1.68. MINZALL. Haydock Group 1. No surprise here as it was a new course record. 
2. + 1.62. LIVE IN THE DREAM. Sandown Class 2 Handicap. Won 4 times from the next 14 runs at prices of 28/1, 12/1, 5/2 and 11/8. This include the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York so obviously a class horse. 
3. + 0.82. ANMAAT. Haydock Group 3. Won 2 from the next 3 at prices 23/10 and 13/10.
4. + 0.67. TANMAWWY. Ffos Las Class 3 Handicap. A poor record afterwards with 1 win at 13/8 from 7 runs before being shipped to the US. 
5. + 0.63. DUBAI MIRAGE. Salisbury Class 2 Handicap. Won 1 from the next 4 at 11/2.
6. + 0.63. GOOD LUCK FOX. Catterick Class 5 Handicap. Ran 11 times since without success (although none of them were on heavy going). Not the sort of horse you would expect to see with a high speed figure. The going was heavy and all the races were run upto 27 seconds slower. Perhaps speed figures achieved on heavy going should be ignored or at least treated with caution.
7. + 0.59. REGAL REALITY. Windsor Group 3. The time was 1.99 seconds faster than standard despite the going being good to soft. Won 1 from next 7 at 5/1.
8. + 0.43. AZANO. Redcar Class 3 Handicap. Faster than standard and also carrying top weight of 10 st 2 lbs would indicate that this was a top class performance. However only won 1 of the following 15 races at 5/1.
9. + 0.39. SHEIKH MAZ MAHOOD. From the same meeting as GOOD LUCK FOX. Won 1 from the next 4 at 15/2.
10. + 0.36. SEANTRABH. Catterick Class 5 Novice. Going was Soft (Heavy In Places). Won 1 from the next 7 at 15/2.
11 + 0.36. PYLEDRIVER. Ascot Group 1. Won 1 from next 2 at 7/2.
12 + 0.29. STAY ALERT. Newbury Group 3. Faster than standard but no success in the next 5 races (although they were all higher class races).
13 + 0.28. CHIPSTEAD. Catterick (again !) Class 2 Handicap. Won 3 from the next 14 at 16/1, 12/1 and 12/1.
 
A lot more work to do but so far looks encouraging.
 
 
 

So i was at a conference yesterday, held be a friend of mine, where an ambassador was present. I was kind of bored and picked up my phone, at the very moment i was was checking out the horses for this race the ambassador calls my friend "mister professor" in italian, and on the same instance i see the horse "Mr professor" and tell my brother, we both have a little laugh and put 5 pound ew on it. Later at night he had had one drink too many and as we recall this he goes and tries to put a silly ammount of money on it, i stopped him... Today the horse goes and wins in style. My goodness 

As a young man i did speed figures for two year olds on the flat(there was no all weather racing back then) and had some success,and certainly a lot better knowledge of the form book.
However, while i started with enthusiasm,i soon found the workload a bit of a chore,particularly when the losing runs hit.What finally put me off then(as still happens now),was the constant moving of the rails making distances longer or shorter than the officially stated.Thus (to my eyes at least), made the ratings at best unreliable.
Interesting to see him mentioned here, and as an author i think Nick Mordin had few peers,indeed his book "Betting For a Living" was in my opinion the best book on horse racing betting that i have ever read.His book on speed ratings however lagged behind Andy Beyer's work "Beyer On Speed"(again only in my opinion).
One must remember that Nick Mordin's phoneline (as there was back then) was regularly listed as one of the most unprofitable Horse Racing service around, costing his devoted followers dear-clearly the man could talk the talk,but couldn't really walk the walk-well not when the money was down anyway.
Nick was last heard of having retired from Journalism to go and live in South Africa,a big loss to us all, as he had many thought provoking and innovative ideas...

A decent finish to the festival with Majborough winning at 7/1
Total profit to send to the charity £ 473.83, more than double last years £233.66

Thankyou well played 👍

Congratulations In Play Race Reader!  👍

Thankyou well played 👍

15.50 Kempton: Rare Edition 5/6 Ladbrokes
17.00 Wolverhampton: Supreme Tenacity 11/4 Ladbrokes 
17.30 Wolverhampton: Heet 1/1
Res:
14.42 Kempton: King Alexander ew 8/1 Ladbrokes 
20.00 Wolverhampton: Tortured Soul 15/8 Ladbrokes 
Good luck In Play Race Reader! 
 

I always like to review my P+L at the end of each year
9th year in a row of profits
Mostly driven by Price boosts £2,000, Lucky 15s £1,000 and Free Bets £1,000
In effect all my profit is driven by bookmaker offers, my "system" bets have shown a loss
 

@Craig bluenose surged into the lead early on and had enough in hand to withstand the rest. Congratulations
Well done to runner up @In Play Race Reader
4 players with over 100 points, fantastic effort

Most winners
@Alastair finishes with 143 winners but is shy of the profit target, as is @Johnrobertson with 134 winners
The prize goes to @calva decoy with 125 winners and 54 points profit. Congratulations.

Merry Christmas everyone - thanks you for reading my pieces this year and I hope somewhere along the journey I've helped you find a winner or two.     Kempton 12.45 We start the day’s ITV coverage with a eight runner novices’ handicap chase run over 2M 4 1/2F. The race has a very open look about it and it maybe worth chancing Alan King’s representative Es Perfecto who made a promising chasing debut in a similar contest as this when chasing home the ten length winner Ginny’s Destiny at Cheltenham 39 days ago. The form has been boosted by the subsequent success of the winner in grade 2 company since. Surprisingly the handicapper has dropped him a pound for that effort and with improvement to come looks likely to be thereabouts with the likes of Blow Your Wad and Russian Ruler dangers.   ES PERFECTO 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5 123   Aintree 1.05 Registered as the Tolworth Hurdle the newly named Formby Novices’ Hurdle is run here for the first time having previously been raced at Sandown and has attracted a good sized field of ten. With challengers from Ireland and French this race will take some winning and the pick is the Nicky Henderson trained Jango Baie who made a winning debut under rules when getting the better of the re-appearing Tellherthename at Ascot 52 days ago. That form has worked out well and with a stronger pace here likely to suit can continue the good form of the Henderson stable who had an across the card four timer on Saturday.   JANGO BAIE 1 point win @ 10/3 William Hill   Kempton 1.20 A small but select field of just six line up for this years renewal of the 3M Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase. French challenger Il Est Francais is obviously very smart but has no experience of British fences or drying ground and the one to beat may well be the Paul Nicholls trained Hermes Allen. He steps up to three miles for the first time here under rules but as a 3M Irish point winner and the tightness of this flat track it really shouldn’t be an issue for this exciting novice. His trainer was at pains to say he would need the run before he made a winning chasing debut at Newbury 25 days ago and with likely improvement to come can give his trainer a winner in a race he won two years ago with Bravemansgame.   HERMES ALLEN 1 point win @ 15/8 bet365   Wetherby 1.35 Only six line up for the 3M Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase with each of the sextet having a chance of sorts. Mark Walford’s Into Overdrive won this last year off of a handicap mark 3lb lower ver than today’s and can score again despite a 287 day absence. He won first time out last season so can run well fresh and with a record at the Yorkshire track of two wins from four starts looks the one to be with. Another horse back from a layoff is Kim Bailey’s top weight Does He Know and he too has a good record fresh and looks a threat.
INTO OVERDRIVE 1 point win @ 7/2 BetVictor   Kempton 1.55 Just six go to post for the Ladbrokes Christmas hurdle run over two miles in which see’s the re-appearance of the reigning Champion Hurdler Constitution Hill who remains unbeaten under rules having won all seven of his starts including at the last two Cheltenham Festivals and this very race last year. The fact he has won first time out for the last two years by 12 and 14 lengths suggests he will be ready here and with 26lb and upwards in hand of his rivals it will be a major shock were he to get beaten. Rubaud looks the one for the forecast.   Kempton 2.30 The day’s feature race is the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase run over three miles. We only have a field of six but they’re all quality chasers with Willie Mullins’s Allaho heading the market. He must go well but preference is for Paul Nicholl’s Bravemansgame. He is two from two at the track having won the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase and this race here over the last two years. The track and ground conditions look ideal for him and although he may not have been at his best for his two starts this season he’s hardly been beaten that far so he can take this famous race for the second time under his usual partner Harry Cobden.   BRAVEMANSGAME 1 point win @ 9/4 BetUK  

A good day today
BOURNEMOUTH / PRESTON NORTH END / MILLWALL / HUDDERSFIELD TOWN 160/1£5
NOTTINGHAM FOREST 15/1 £5
Market Rasen 1.47 MARGARET'S LEGACY 6/1 £5 won at 11/4
Wincanton 12.18 PLENTY OF TIME 24/5 £20 won at 5/2
Number 26 (my birthday) came up from 2 attempts on roullette, £170 profit
Profit for the day £ 1,129.41
Total profit £ 1,002.32
 

@In Play Race Reader moves to within 18 points of @Craig bluenose with @daisychain breathing down their necks

 
Most winners
@calva decoy remains in a strong position

A big well done to the winner and Mr mac for all his work running the comp
 I didnt quite stay the trip on this occasion , back to the drawing board👋

Racing tv £10 Black Friday 😬

There seems to be some decent offers around today
One that I have taked advantage of is BETMGM
Sign up and place a bet of £10 (min odds) 1/1 and you receive £40 in free bets
£10 horse racing
£10 football
£10 acca
£10 bet builder
It was easy to sign up and deposit, there were no requirements for copies of driving licences etc

That's a shame .....but I get where your coming from ......I'm a professional chef in my day job and my biggest handicap is finding time to rate .....if I've been in a kitchen 10 hrs the last thing I wanna do is come home and rate so I do miss out sometimes ......
It's nice to win of course and I've had some fab wins but I rate and get involved purely for the enjoyment of "getting involved"....and that's the truth ....I love horses. ...Im in awe when I'm standing near the rails and I see them take off like they are flying  ....and their intelligence never fails to amaze me .....it's like doing a crossword ....I like the challenge of tackling a race and the money really is 2nd rated for me .....I very much get frustrated sometimes when I've spent an hour rating a race only for 3 donkeys to fill the places and my selections rolling in 6th and 9th ..lol ....but that's racing .....it's not personal .....it's just how it works  ....as soon as I've seen the result ..the race is forgotten ....and I move on to the next ....
Racing enlightens my life ....challenges me .....some people might find the tackling of a huge handicap daunting or really hard work but I find it soothing 😁....it helps me unwind and there's the social aspect too ...either going to races with friends or coming on the forum it's nice to connect and share thoughts and listen to people's points of views which never fails to fascinate me .....
I hope you find your mojo and stick with us 👍

Well I have just finished my accounts for 2022-23 (1st Nov-Nov) and my profit was just over £17,000 which is a good return, one of my best to be honest, fortunately I reached my threshold by December of last year by way of a few good Lucky 15 results each £1000+ so thereafter everything was profit as long as I stayed within my usual staking pattern. I had 3 maximum bets of £200, two of which won, £200 at 9/2 & 7/2, one of which lost (9/1) although I did have accumulative bets of £150 on Corach Rambler in the grand national at rates down from 20/1 to 10/1 which boosted my profits somewhat.
 
Now here is the thing. Although on the surface of things £17,000 is a good few bob for what is in effect a hobby. Once broken down it doesn't look as good as it equates to about £325 per week, again that looks pretty good for a hobby but here is the rub, break that down to hours spent on inputting Information on spread sheets checking every result of every race and calculating the speed figures then checking every racecard against those thousands of results and times daily becomes not only tediously boring but takes a hell of a lot of time so much so that it equates to about a minimum of 40 hours per week and that excludes all the races I watch both on line and TV, Britain, Ireland, France, and Germany then add on Meydan and other UAE meetings and the total hours spent on racing is over 50 hours per week minimum which works out at just over £6.50 an hour, well below the minimum wage. The money isn't the problem, it is the repetitiveness of the daily grind that then can be thwarted by for example by rail re-alignments on the flat and missed out obstacles on the jumps all corrupting the standard times, we have to expect and accept trainer/owner manipulation of the handicap, what is harder to swallow though is blatant cheating using information that is not available to everyone (Barney Curley was a master at this) This smacked me in the face and brought home what we are up against this week with the Greatwood Hurdle, all my research five weeks ago suggested that the winner would probably be Nemean Lion and I advised and backed it accordingly at what I considered a cracking bet at 9/1 (fav) since then it was backed down to 6/1 and still thinking it was value backed it again at that price (anti post) it has now drifted back out to 9/1 due to the Mullins horse, there is/was very little in the form to suggest that the Mullins horse Onlyamatteroftime would end up 4/1 fav or be anything other than mid betting (should we just back it because Mullins has taken over its training and little else?) Okay Nemean Lion might still win and the Mullins horse be midfield but that's not the point.
 
Racing is in a bad way and my observations of the 2yo this year seems to suggest it is going to get worse, this year I hardly backed a 2yo simply because there was never sufficient form to give confidence to a selection, (so why put all that effort in to the daily grind?) Group races with small fields and horses that had not run more than twice is not a good grounding for decent bets. British jump racing is in a terrible state, come Cheltenham why would you back a British trained horse in a handicap let alone a graded race when you know the Irish are going to bring a horse over that no bugger has ever heard of 20lbs well in to win the pot.
 
So given all the above I have decided that I am going to scale right back and just have the odd sporting bet, I am considering a post naming the best/fastest horse at each AW meeting just to keep an interest so people might like to consider/follow over the next few months.
 
Nemean Lion which I tipped up weeks ago at 9/1 will be my last max bet before I lower that max down to £10 or a rare £20.
 
Yes you can make money on Horse racing but you better be prepared to work hard for it because there are very few if any short cuts other than Lady Luck.

19:30 Chelmsford—Impeach 14/1 B365

Riot - WON 4/1
Maxzeno - Lost
------------
The King of May - Lost

19:30 Chelmsford—Impeach 14/1 B365

19.30 chelmsford  Cuban breeze    e/w   @   14/1  b.vic

14:05 Newcastle—Tacarib Bay 12/1 B365