In Play Race Reader

I don't have any ratings that could be incorporated into this experiment but I do have a numerical system for races up to 8 furlongs
This is based on the average winning trips of sires and damsires. Basically you add them together and divide by two to get a figure in furlongs. I can't remember why now but I called this the SD figure ....... S obviously stands for Stamina but I can't remember what D stands for ........ getting old ! (maybe Distance)
A few years ago I spent a year noting this figure for all winners and horses finishing within 2 lengths of winners in all weather races and then I converted these figures into percentages. If there is any value in this I think it should apply to turf racing as well because it's about the distance not the surface
so for the 2000gns I have range in the field from 7.8 to 10.5 and the 'sweet spot' for horses over a mile is 85 to 95. The following horses qualify with current best price
Alyanaabi - 20/1 wm hill
Haatem - 25/1 bet365
Task Force 20/1 wm hill
This takes into account nothing but the possible suitability for the trip
So for example I have City of Troy with the biggest figure, 10.5 furlongs, which suggests he'd be much more effective in the Derby but he might have enough class to win at a mile even though not ideally suited by it
But on the basis of my little system my 3 E/W shots are .........
Alyanaabi - 20/1 wm hill
Haatem - 25/1 bet365
Task Force 20/1 wm hill
 
 

 

Good, saves me having to rate him !

Yesterday Charyn won (4th top rated in a row) at 3.35 + Arabian Crown at 5/6 + 4 losers
Current loss 0.74 points
Todays top rated is BROKEN SPEAR. It achieved its top rating over todays course and dstance and on todays going.  I have it 11 lengths clear of the favourite so it looks excellent value at 4/1. BSP.
Lots of action today, these are top rated overall and on the going
Leicester 2.05 LOOK BACK SMILING 8/1 - BSP
Leicester 3.12 RECON MISSION 5/1 - BSP
Leicester 4.55 EY UP ITS JAZZ 14/5 - LADBROKES
Haydock 2.10 COLD STARE 11/2 - BET MGM EW (4 places)
Haydock 3.20 THE SMILING WOLF 11/4 - BSP
Haydock 3.53 SHEMOZZLE 8/15 - BSP
Haydock 5.00 AMANCIO 5/2 - BSP
Doncaster 5.40 ISLE OF DREAMS 13/1 - LADBROKES
Ripon 6.20 LEGENDARY DAY 16/1 - LADBROKES 

ON THE RIVER won yesteday at 3/1 + 3 losers for a breakeven day.
Current profit 5.54 points.
Top rated today is Crystal Delight but that was achieved on the AW.
2nd top rated in that race is DUAL IDENTITY and it is top rated on todays good going. Available at 6/1, I'll have a bet at BSP.
Top rated in total and on the going are
Epsom 3.55 WYNTER WILDES 15/1 - Ladbrokes EW (4 places)
Epsom 4.30 MIDAIR 5/4 - BSP
Epsom 5.05 MR BALOO 10/3 - BSP
Yarmouth 2.00 READY OR NOT 8/1 - BETMGM
Yarmouth 4.20 SPANISH MANE 80/1 - BETMGM EW (4 places)
Yarmouth 5.25 BATCHELOR BOY 5/1 - BSP
 

I would have pace of race as my number one,past form and potential pace for todays race 

Never played scrabble in my life! We'll have to agree to differ but I'll be carrying on with the single word approach happy that I'm either right or at the cutting edge of evolving the language.
The bookies tend towards going with it being one word if you want the ultimate arbiter who we all have absolute trust in. 

I would have pace of race as my number one,past form and potential pace for todays race 

Top rated in the 2.05 at Newbury
REGAL JUBILEE 9/2 - BSP

Also top rated today both in total and on todays going are :-
Brighton 5.15 DULCET SPIRIT 11/1 - BSP
Brighton 7.50 LETTER OF THE LAW 14/1 - Ladbrokes EW (4 places)
Nottingham 5.25 STALLONE 12/1 - BSP
Thirsk 6.05 COLD STARE 17/2 - BSP
 

Current profit 0.07 points
Top rated today is AL QAREEM in the 1.30 at Newbury based on last Septembers win at Chester in a listed contest. That was on todays going. Slight increase in class so odds of 13/2 at Ladbrokes seems reasonable.

A poor day yesterday.
Todays top rated is ORAZIO in the 1.50. That was on soft going, it has never run on good going before so I will discount it.
In the same race SIGNIFICANTLY is joint 2nd top rated and also top rated on good going. I have had £1 EW (5 places) at 11/1 with Ladbrokes.
In the 4.45 I have BOLSENA top rated both overall and on todays going. Best price is 11/2 but with a bookie I can't bet with so I've had £2 win at BSP.
In the 3.00 I have THE FOXES and REGAL REALITY joint top rated on both counts. REGAL REALITY is available at higher odds so I will have £2 win at 12/1 with BETMGM.

255 Newmarket 
Bopedro. 8.8 10/1 
Dutch decoy.  8.8 16/1 
Hafeet Alain. 8.5 14/1 
Tricky race this one ....I'm not a huge fan of backing older horses and all these are of the older generation but computer is saying to back these even though they haven't got brill form .....gonna be an interesting one ....5pt Ew top 2 .....forecasts all 3 

Top rated today is Bedford Flyer but that was achieved on the AW so I'll give that one a miss.
Best on todays going is Spring Bloom in the 1.50. It achieved the top rating over todays distance. It is 6th top rated overall but a lot of those above it achieved their ratings on the AW.
It is available at 12/1 4 places so I'll go mad and have £1 each way (it's always good to have some skin in the game).
In the 3.30 Boiling Point is top rated on todays going and 2nd top rated overall. £2 win with Ladbrokes at 17/20.
In the 5.15 Rating is top rated on good and 2nd overall. £2 with Ladbrokes at 15/2.
 

First bit of flat racing today at Yarmouth
Going Good To Firm which after all the rain elsewhere is a surprise
My top rated today is Angle Land, I have it 4 lengths ahead of the next best. However that rating was on soft going so I will discount it on that basis.
The next best are all close together so no bet for me, I will not try and force a bet.

That's fantastic, thank you.
I'm doing OK, 3 more months of chemo and then hopefully be in remission for a bit.

Sorry to hear that Michael ....I hope it's going well ....win or lose I'll make a donation in coming days ...even more so if kittts light wins as I'll see that as fate 🤞

I am also fighting leukemia, the medical advances over the last 10 years have been fantastic and without them I wouldn't be alive today. I will be donating any winnings to https://bloodcancer.org.uk/ they do fantastic work. Any donations will be gratefully received.

Still in the trial stage but here is thes top bet at today's turf meeting at Thirsk.
3.15 BURJ MALINKA - best speed figure obtained on good to firm going but also has the best speed rating in the race achieved on soft going (April last year). Top weight but last won off a rating of 62 compared to today's rating of 61. Current odds 7/2 favourite. Only slight question mark is that the race on soft going was over 5f rather than 6f.
 
 
 

Indeed, if only I'd discovered it earlier !

You’ll be hooked to SR now pal 😁

Still very much in the testing stage but my top rated horse today is Blind Beggar in the 3.43 at Bath.
It obtained its best speed figure last May at Leicester on going described as Soft (Heavy In Places) so today's heavy going shouldn't be an issue. That was over 6 furlongs but it has won over today's distance of 5 furlongs twice since then.
Last won off a rating of 84 so today's rating of 82 is not an issue.
Available at 12/1 so perhaps worth a small bet.

It is a good time to look back and take stock, including of one aspect of all-weather racing which tends to be misrepresented. That is the nature of the surfaces on which the horses race, and in particular those surfaces’ speeds as inferred from the times recorded on them.
It is a myth that the speeds of all-weather surfaces do not vary, though they do avoid the real extremes that sometimes occur on turf.
That has not stopped every last all-weather fixture run so far this year from being described officially as “standard ” at Chelmsford, Lingfield, Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton, and all 18 meetings in that time at Kempton from being described as “standard to slow”.
Time analysis paints a different picture of regular variations in implied surface speeds, some of them far from negligible.
A going allowance can be calculated which reflects the ability a horse would have to show to equal standard time, carrying weight-for-age in a well-run race, with lower indicating quicker conditions and higher the opposite.
This is how they look, summarised for all meetings in January to March inclusive in 2024. Where different time-based going allowances existed on the same card (such as following in-card track maintenance), the figure for the first race has been used.
 
Overall, there is agreement between time-based going allowances and official going descriptions 58.9% of the time, which leaves nearly half that are inaccurate as judged by such means. Wolverhampton easily leads the way in being “correct” 83.3% of the time.
Another way of looking at the data is to consider the maximum and minimum going allowances at each course, the range (the difference between maximum and minimum), and the standard deviation (which is a traditional measure of variance).
 
Wolverhampton and Lingfield perform best in terms of narrowness of range and lowness of standard deviation. They could arguably justify their unswervingly uniform approach to going description - the other courses less so.
As an illustration, a range of 50lb is equivalent to the difference between “good to soft” and “good to firm, tending to firm” on turf, or the difference between Frankel running a given time and a 90-rated handicapper doing the same.
Newcastle is a rather tricky case, in which wind sometimes plays a major part on its straight mile, which I have allowed for as much as possible. Unfortunately, British racing has ignored requests to record wind speed and direction as a matter of course as races are run, and nor does it publicise significant in-card track maintenance.
Even if you treat Newcastle as an outlier, 35% of other cards seem to have been miscategorised. Incidentally, the going allowance there on All-Weather Finals Day was 93 on my figures, or just about slap bang in the middle of “standard”, as described.
Either way, you can be sure that track conditions vary a good deal more than the official version would have you believe, and this has implications for speed, stamina, sectionals, race-positioning, distance betting, handicapping, times, in-play betting, and more besides.
Perhaps British racing will one day acknowledge that these things matter to those who bet on the sport and thereby help to keep the show on the road. But I won’t be holding my breath.

Sectional Spotlight Sectional Spotlight Blog Archive
Dubai World Cup and all-weather surfaces
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
The Flat is back!
Tuesday, 26th March 2024
Cheltenham 2024: Day three & day four review
Saturday, 16th March 2024
Cheltenham 2024: Day one & day two review
Thursday, 14th March 2024
Dublin Racing Festival reflections
Tuesday, 6th February 2024
Shake up in Supreme and Ryanair markets
Tuesday, 16th January 2024
The Road to Cheltenham
Tuesday, 9th January 2024
Festive round-up
Wednesday, 3rd January 2024
More blog posts Other Blogs
Hollie Doyle
Thursday, 4th April 2024
Hong Kong Diary
Thursday, 4th April 2024
Sectional Spotlight
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Kevin Blake
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Eyecatchers
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Surfing The Sand
Saturday, 30th March 2024
Betfair Ambassadors
Saturday, 30th March 2024
Saturday Horses to Follow: Doncaster
Friday, 22nd March 2024
Jamie Lynch
Thursday, 21st March 2024
Declan Rix
Thursday, 21st March 2024
More Blogs

Sounds a good test, I'm almost at a stage where I will be able to rate all races.

It is a good time to look back and take stock, including of one aspect of all-weather racing which tends to be misrepresented. That is the nature of the surfaces on which the horses race, and in particular those surfaces’ speeds as inferred from the times recorded on them.
It is a myth that the speeds of all-weather surfaces do not vary, though they do avoid the real extremes that sometimes occur on turf.
That has not stopped every last all-weather fixture run so far this year from being described officially as “standard ” at Chelmsford, Lingfield, Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton, and all 18 meetings in that time at Kempton from being described as “standard to slow”.
Time analysis paints a different picture of regular variations in implied surface speeds, some of them far from negligible.
A going allowance can be calculated which reflects the ability a horse would have to show to equal standard time, carrying weight-for-age in a well-run race, with lower indicating quicker conditions and higher the opposite.
This is how they look, summarised for all meetings in January to March inclusive in 2024. Where different time-based going allowances existed on the same card (such as following in-card track maintenance), the figure for the first race has been used.
 
Overall, there is agreement between time-based going allowances and official going descriptions 58.9% of the time, which leaves nearly half that are inaccurate as judged by such means. Wolverhampton easily leads the way in being “correct” 83.3% of the time.
Another way of looking at the data is to consider the maximum and minimum going allowances at each course, the range (the difference between maximum and minimum), and the standard deviation (which is a traditional measure of variance).
 
Wolverhampton and Lingfield perform best in terms of narrowness of range and lowness of standard deviation. They could arguably justify their unswervingly uniform approach to going description - the other courses less so.
As an illustration, a range of 50lb is equivalent to the difference between “good to soft” and “good to firm, tending to firm” on turf, or the difference between Frankel running a given time and a 90-rated handicapper doing the same.
Newcastle is a rather tricky case, in which wind sometimes plays a major part on its straight mile, which I have allowed for as much as possible. Unfortunately, British racing has ignored requests to record wind speed and direction as a matter of course as races are run, and nor does it publicise significant in-card track maintenance.
Even if you treat Newcastle as an outlier, 35% of other cards seem to have been miscategorised. Incidentally, the going allowance there on All-Weather Finals Day was 93 on my figures, or just about slap bang in the middle of “standard”, as described.
Either way, you can be sure that track conditions vary a good deal more than the official version would have you believe, and this has implications for speed, stamina, sectionals, race-positioning, distance betting, handicapping, times, in-play betting, and more besides.
Perhaps British racing will one day acknowledge that these things matter to those who bet on the sport and thereby help to keep the show on the road. But I won’t be holding my breath.

Sectional Spotlight Sectional Spotlight Blog Archive
Dubai World Cup and all-weather surfaces
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
The Flat is back!
Tuesday, 26th March 2024
Cheltenham 2024: Day three & day four review
Saturday, 16th March 2024
Cheltenham 2024: Day one & day two review
Thursday, 14th March 2024
Dublin Racing Festival reflections
Tuesday, 6th February 2024
Shake up in Supreme and Ryanair markets
Tuesday, 16th January 2024
The Road to Cheltenham
Tuesday, 9th January 2024
Festive round-up
Wednesday, 3rd January 2024
More blog posts Other Blogs
Hollie Doyle
Thursday, 4th April 2024
Hong Kong Diary
Thursday, 4th April 2024
Sectional Spotlight
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Kevin Blake
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Eyecatchers
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Surfing The Sand
Saturday, 30th March 2024
Betfair Ambassadors
Saturday, 30th March 2024
Saturday Horses to Follow: Doncaster
Friday, 22nd March 2024
Jamie Lynch
Thursday, 21st March 2024
Declan Rix
Thursday, 21st March 2024
More Blogs

Yes ,I think I rated it about 78 ,,which is decent mid-top handicapper on my scale ,,but Raceform do often go big  at Newcastle,,used to always be big on Southwell’s old surface